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QUarterLy UPDate | OctOBer | 2012
Accelerating success.
3Q 2012 | OFFICE
ECONOMIC INDICATORs
Gross Domestic product at factor Cost
10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
oct - Dec 09
oct - Dec 10
Jan - Mar 09
Jul - Sep 09
Jan - Mar 10
Apr - Jun 10
Jul - Sep 10
Jan - Mar 11
oct - Dec 11
Jul - Sep 11
Jan - Mar 12
Apr - Jun 09
ECONOMIC BAROMETER
sep-11
REPo RATE REVERSE REPo RATE CRR INFLATIoN PRIME LENDING RATE DEPoSIT RATE (<1 YEAR) FoREIGN ExCHANGE INR - USD 47.55 54.31 8.50% 7.00% 6.00% 9.78% 10.00% - 10.75% 7.75% - 9.50%
sep-12
8.00% 7.00% 4.50% 7.81% 10.00% - 10.50% 8.00% - 9.25%
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 INR Crore 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
2009 - 10
2010 - 11
2005 - 06
2008 - 09
2006 - 07
2007 - 08
2011-12
INR- EURo
65.60
71.30
* Rebase to 100
BSE Sensex
Realty Index
Exchange Rates
27-Jul-12
9-Aug-12
22-Aug-12
USD
Euro
www.colliers.com
4-Sep-12
80
April -Jun 12
Apr - Jun 12
Apr - Jun 11
MuMBAI
Approximately 9.4 million sq ft of commercial Grade A office space was available for fitout in 3Q 2012. More than 65% of this total available space was concentrated in Andheri East, Thane/LBS Marg and Lower Parel. Project launched this quarter includes one BkC by Wadhwa Developers at Bandrakurla-Complex. This Project constitutes approximately 1.2 million sq ft of Grade A office space and expected to be completed by 2Q 2015. In 3Q 2012, Grade A new supply added up to approximately 1.2 million sq ft. Project or part of project contributing to this new supply was The Capital by Wadhwa Developers at Bandra-kurla-Complex.
3Q 2012
MUMBAI
Malad
kalina
Andheri East
Worli/Prabhdevi
Goregaon / JVLR
Thane / LBS
Lower Parel
Powai
Malad (IT)
Looking ahead, rental values are expected to remain stable as substantial under construction supply in the pipeline is expected to enter the market in the near future. This quarter the LBS Marg flyover has become operational, which is a part of a crucial Santacruz-Chembur Link Road. The 565 meter long and 17 meter wide flyover is expected to decongest the overall traffic by helping more than 50,000 commuters daily.
Grade A
Grade B
Forecast
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Ceva Logistics Cipla Delta Corp. Rediffusion Tata AIG Technip kTI BUILDING NAME The Qube Peninsula Business Park FCH House Indiabulls Finance Centre Peninsula Business Park Boomerang AREA (SQ. FT.) 18,540 250,000 55,000 30,000 32,000 56,000 LoCATIoN Andheri (E) Lower Parel Lower Parel Lower Parel Lower Parel Andheri (E) TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
Navi Mumbai
Powai (IT)
Absorption in Mumbai remained upbeat during the surveyed period and a few large floor plates deals were concluded. Despite increased absorption, average rents for grade A office premises remained stable in almost all of the micro-markets.
p. 3
DElhI
Approximately 1.7 million sq ft of grade A office space was ready for fit-out in 3Q 2012. The majority of this supply was located in suburban locations such as Jasola and Saket. During this quarter, the major office development completed were konnectus by Pratibha Group along Minto Road and Ambience Corporate Tower by Ambience Group at Vasant kunj. These projects jointly contributed around 0.3 million of grade A office space addition to the city total inventory.
DELHI
Jasola 59%
Saket 29%
In 3Q 2012, new commercial projects were launched in the city including, Suncity Projects by Suncity Group at East Delhi, Ambience Towers by Ambience Group at Rohini and Redfort Capital Parsvnath Towers by Parsvnath Ltd at Connaught Place. All of these projects are expected to contribute more than 0.7 million sq ft of grade A office space to the citys total inventory. In 3Q 2012, absorption remained positive and rental values for grade A properties increased in the range of 3 to 5% quarter on quarter across the micro-markets. Looking ahead, the absorption momentum is likely to continue and rentals are expected to increase moderately due to limited addition of supply. The Delhi State Government has sanctioned INR 520 crore for the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) to redevelop 674 roads, each over 60 feet wide. The project would further improve the infrastructure of the city and is expected to complete by the end of 2014.
Grade A
Grade B
200 150 100 50 2Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2008 3Q2009 4Q2008 2Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2009 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2010 3Q2012 0
Jasola
Cannaught place
Saket
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Avnet Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Nexant TATA AIG BUILDING NAME Jasola DLF Tower A The Capital Court Vasant Square Mall kanchenjunga AREA (SQ. FT.) 2,500 8,930 2,500 10,000 LoCATIoN Jasola Munirka Vasant kunj Connaught Place TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease
p. 4
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
GuRGAON
About 12 million sq ft of Grade A office space was available for fit-out in 3Q 2012. Most of this available supply was concentrated in Golf Course Road and its extensions, Udyog Vihar and NH8 up to Manesar. Total new supply of grade A office during the quarter was .75 million sq ft. Projects / parts of projects contributing to this new supply were Platinum Tower by ABW Group, located on Sohna Road and Digital Green by Emmar MGF on Golf Course Road Extension. Projects launched during this quarter were Techopolis 2 by ocus Group located on Golf Course Road Extension and Baani City Centre by Baani Group located in sector 63. Both projects are expected to be completed by the end of 2015 and will add about 0.55 million sq ft of Grade A office space to the citys total office inventory. During this quarter rental values for Grade A properties increased in the range of 2 to 7% QoQ CBD and SBD micro-markets. However rentals in PBD locations like Golf Course Road and its Extension and Sohna Road saw a decline of 7%, while Manesar remained stable. This could primarily be due to ample supply in these areas. Due to moderate demand and ample stock availability rental values are expected to remain stable in near future.
Forecast
Manesar 21%
GURGAoN
Grade A
Grade B
This quarter the state government initiated few infrastructure projects such as mending of potholes on all arterial roads and internal roads, remodeling, street lighting and drainage on major roads etc.
150 125 100 75 50 25 0 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2011 2Q2011 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 3Q2011 4Q2011 3Q2012 1Q2012
MG Road Golf Course Road/Ext /Sohna Road Institutional Sectors /Sushant Lok NH8/Udyog Vihar (IT) Manesar (IT)
DLF Cyber City (IT) Golf Course Road/ Ext /Sohna Road (IT) Manesar NH8/Udyog Vihar
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Ameriprise Cap Gemini ERM India Executive Centre BUILDING NAME Prestige Corporate Park Spaze Tech Park DLF Building-10 Silverton AREA (SQ. FT.) 140,000 40,000 15,000 10,000 LoCATIoN Udyog Vihar Sohna Road TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
DLF Cybercity
Golf Course Extn. Road Golf Course Extn. Road
HPCL Swarowski
4,500 15,000
DLF Cybercity
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 5
NOIDA
In this quarter, more than 8 million sq ft of Grade A and Grade B office space was available for fit-out. More than 90% of this available office space was dedicated to IT / ITeS located in sectors 16 A, 62 and 125 to 143 along the NoIDA expressway. In 3Q 2012 about 0.9 million sq ft of Grade A office space was added to the citys total inventory. This new supply was contributed by Techno Heights by Techno Touch Ltd at sector 62, NSL by NSL Group at sector 143 and SB ToWER by SB Group at sector 16A.
NoIDA
Commercial Sectors (Sec 18) 0.8% Industrial Sectors (Sec. 1-9, 57-60, 63-65) (Grade B) 7.5% Commercial Sectors (Sec 18) (Grade B) 0.2%
This quarter, Sunshine Business Park was launched by Sunshine Infrawell in Sector 94. The project size is around 0.5 million sq ft and is expected to be completed by the end of 2015. During the surveyed period, absorption levels remained subdued in Institutional and commercial sector, resulting in declining of rental values in the range of 1 to 4%. However, leasing activities in industrial sector remained active as these sectors were in demand from the companies looking for cheaper options. Going forward, rental values are likely to remain stable in near future despite subdued absorption conditions as most of the under construction supply is anticipated over the period of 2-3 years in peripheral areas of NoIDA.
Forecast
Grade A
During the quarter the state government announced New Industrial & Infrastructure Investment Policy 2012. The government has also decided to consider big investment proposals of over INR 500 crore on caseto-case basis and stated that the new policy would not impede exclusive considerations in such matters. Moreover the state government has cleared the metro connecting Noida City Centre to Sector 62 and Greater Noida West.
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Emeter Info Edge Mann India Markit Naukri.com Software AG BUILDING NAME Logix Cyber Park Urbtech NPx SB Tower Green Boulevard NkG Tower Stellar IT Park AREA (SQ. FT.) 15,000 100,000 18,000 51,000 150,000 6,600 LoCATIoN Sector 62 Sector 153 Sector 16A Sector 62 Sector 132 Sector 62 TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 6
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
ChENNAI
Approximately 13.5 million sq ft of commercial grade A office space was available for fitout in 3Q 2012. More than half of this total available space was concentrated in oMR (IT Corridor). During this quarter, a number of new projects were launched in Chennai, including Infinite Towers and Icon Tower by Sri kausalya Constructions Ltd (SkCL) and a commercial Tower by khivaraj Group. All of these were located at Guindy and together constitute approximately 0.2 million sq ft of grade A office space.
CHENNAI
Guindy (SBD) 6%
In 3Q 2012, Chennai grade A new supply totals approximately 0.8 million sq ft. projects/ parts of Projects contributing to this new supply were Prestige Polygon by Prestige Group at Nandanam and Design Square by Sri kausalya Constructions Ltd (SkCL) at Guindy. oMR (IT Corridor) and Guindy remained the most preferable location/area for grade A office space. However due to slowdown in the economy and the IT sector overall demand for the grade A office space has reduced as compared to the previous two quarter. Companies are deferring their decision to lease/ buy real estate. Average rental values for Grade A office premises remained stable in almost all of the micro-markets barring Guindy where rental values appreciated by around 4% Quarter on quarter due to healthy demand. Looking ahead, rental values are expected to remain stable as significant supply is projected to enter the market in the near future.
NoN IT
IT
Forecast
90 80 70 INR per sq ft per month 60 50 40 30 20 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2012
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2011
2Q2012
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
1Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2012
3Q2013F
GST road
CBD
Guindy (SBD)
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Ajuba Solutions India Pvt Ltd GE Capital Services ISGN NITEo technologies Sutherland Global Services BUILDING NAME AkDR Tower Agnito Park Tek Towers Bascon IT Park Tek Towers AREA (SQ. FT.) 30,000 58,000 33,000 11,000 33,000 LoCATIoN IT Corridor IT Corridor IT Corridor T.Nagar IT Corridor TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 7
BENGAluRu (BANGAlORE)
Approximately 8.8 million sq ft of commercial Grade A office space was available for fit-out in 3Q 2012. About 57% of this total available space was concentrated in EPIP Zone and Whitefield. During this quarter, a number of new projects were launched in Bengaluru, including Mfar Manyata Tech Park by MFAR Constructions and Vaswani Presidio by Vaswani Group, both along the outer Ring Road; Hinduja SEZ by Hinduja Group and NCC Zenith by NCC both located at Yelahankha; HM Blossom by HM Group on off Sarjapur Road, Commercial Complex by kolte Patil Group at koramangala, Bhartiya SEZ Block 1 by Bhartiya on Bagaluru Road and Golden Supreme Tech Park II by a local developer at Electronic City. All of these projects together would add approximately 3.2 million sq ft of Grade A office space. In 3Q 2012, Bengalurus Grade A new supply totaled approximately 0.8 million sq ft. Projects or part of projects contributing to this new supply were Prestige Tech Park II Etamin Block by Prestige Group, VRC Tower by VRC Corp and Condor by a local developer. In this quarter, the commercial office space market witnessed subdued occupier demand in comparison to the previous two quarters. This could be attributed to cautious occupier sentiments due to economic uncertainty. Average rents for grade A office premises remained stable in almost all of the micromarkets. Going forward, rental values are expected to remain stable as substantial supply is projected to enter the market in the near future.
1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012F 4Q2012F 1Q2013F 2Q2013F 3Q2013F 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009
CBD 6%
Hosur Rd 4%
BENGALURU
Grade B
60
Forecast
50
30
20
10 0
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Dexler Exilant Technologies Happiest Minds Loreal Mitsubishi Price Waterhouse Coopers BUILDING NAME Prestige Corniche Chambers Mantri Independent Building Bearys Global Research Triangle Brigade Hulkul Brigade Hulkul AREA (SQ. FT.) 8,900 40,000 50,000 25,000 8,570 8,570 LoCATIoN Richmond Road Richmond Road Electronic City Whitefield Lavalle Road Lavalle Road TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 8
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
KOlKATA
In 3Q 2012, 0.6 million sq ft was added to the Grade A office stock in kolkata. Projects / parts of projects contributing to this supply included Infinity BNkE by Infinity Group at Sector 5, Wood Square by Srijan Realty at Narendrapur, PS IxL and PS Maestro, both by PS Group at New Town and Topsia, respectively. Projects launched during the quarter included Ideal Unique Centre by Ideal Group at EM By-pass and Inia by a local developer at Matheswartala Road. Both projects are expected to be completed by the end of 2015.
koLkATA
Demand for Grade A commercial office space remained sluggish; however, a few small commercial leases were signed during the quarter. Ample stock availability in major commercial hubs such as Rajarhat, and Sector 5; and subdued demand kept rental values stable across the city. In near future, absorption of Grade A commercial office space is likely to remain moderate and rental values are expected to remain stable. In this quarter for the first time in the state, a land parcel measuring 2 acres was sold via an e-auction. The plot is situated in Rajarhat New Town and was sold for a consideration of INR 10.10 crore for the establishment of an educational facility. The e-auction was conducted by The West Bengal Housing Infrastructure Development Corporation (HIDCo).
Ballygunge -Circular RD
East kolkata
Sector-5
Sector-5 (IT)
Grade A
Grade B
140 120 100 INR per Sq ft per Month 80 60 40 20 0 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012F
Forecast
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
3Q2013F
CBD (Park St,Camac St, AJC Bose Rd) Ballygunge Circular Rd PBD (New Town, Rajarhat
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Anshian Software CMC ITD Cementation Nova Speciality Surgery Praxair BUILDING NAME Globsyn Building Godrej Waterside Godrej Waterside PS Space DLF IT Park 1 AREA (SQ. FT.) 30,000 13,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 LoCATIoN Sector 5, Saltlake New Town New Town Topsia New Town TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 9
puNE
In 3Q 2012 more than 5.4 million sq ft of Grade A office space was available for fitout. About 59% of this supply was located in the Hinjewadi, Hadapsar / Fursungi and kharadi micro-markets. In this quarter, Marvel Realtors launched several new commercial projects including Marvel Fuego and Marvel Sentinel at Magarpatta, Marvel Trueno at Viman Nagar, Marvel Boulevard at NIBM and Marvel Vista at Lulla Nagar. All these projects would collectively add to around 1 million sq ft of Grade A office supply. Apart from this Bramha Corp and Vikram Developer have also launched Pune one and Vikram Monarch at Connaught Road and University Road, respectively.
3Q 2012
Baner 6% Bund Garden 4% Airport road/ pune station 4% Aundh 3% Hinjewadi 27% Senapati Bapat Road 2% Bavdhan 4% kalyani Nagar 6% Nagar Road 12%
PUNE
New supply in Punes Grade A office space for 3Q 2012 accounts for approximately 0.3 million sq ft. The project contributing to this new supply was Techno Space by Teerth Developer at Baner. During 3Q 2012, occupier demand for Grade A office space has reduced, primarily due to prevailing cautions sentiments. Rental values for Grade A office space increased in the range of 6 to 7% quarter-onquarter (QoQ) in the Hinjewadi, Hadapsar / Fursungi and kharadi micro-markets primarily due to limited supply. Though, rental values in all other micro-markets remained stable. The Maharashtra State Government has sanctioned INR200 crore for the construction of the first phase of a new International Airport at Rajgurunagar. The airport will be developed by the Maharashtra Airport Development Company (MADC) with a total estimated cost of INR1,000 crore. Earlier, the airport was planned near Chakan.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Senapati Bapat Road kalyani Nagar Baner Bund Garden Airport road/ pune station Nagar Road Hinjewadi Bavdhan Aundh Hadapsar/Fursungi 4Q2011 1Q2012 0 kharadi 2Q2012 3Q2012
IT
Non IT
100 90 80 70 INR per Sq ft per Month 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2011 3Q2011 1Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 2Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012F
Forecast
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
3Q2013F
4Q2010
Hadapsar/Fursungi
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT
Automatic Data Processing BNY Mellon Bristlecone Citi Bank HCL Johnson Control India BUILDING NAME SP Infocity Commerzone Binarius Eon IT Park Commerzone Devi IT Park AREA (SQ. FT.) 30,000 30,000 35,000 100,000 31,000 100,000 LoCATIoN Phursungi Yerwada Yerwada kharadi Yerwada Pimpri TRANSACTIoN TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 10
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
3Q2011
20
OffICE suBMARKETs
Mumbai The major business locations in Mumbai are the CBD (Nariman Point, Fort and Ballard Estate), Central Mumbai (Worli, Lower Parel and Parel), Bandra kurla Complex (BkC) and Andheri kurla stretch. Powai, Malad and Vashi are the preferred IT/ITES destinations, while Airoli at Navi Mumbai and Lal Bahadur Shastri Marg are emerging as new office and IT/ITES submarkets. Delhi The commercial areas in New Delhi metropolitan area can be broadly classified into the CBD (Connaught Place), SBD Nehru Place, Bhikaji Cama Place, Netaji Subhash Place, Jasola and Saket . Gurgaon The prime business locations in Gurgaon are MG Road, Golf Course Road, Cyber City and Udyog Vihar. Manesar on the outskirts of Gurgaon is also emerging as the citys new office destination. NOIDA NoIDA market is comprised of sectors broadly classified as institutional, industrial and commercial sectors. Institutional sectors include sec 16A, 62 and 125-142, industrial sectors include sec 1-9, 57-60 and 63- 65 while sector 18 is the most developed commercial sector. Chennai Prime office properties in Chennai are located in four principal sub-markets: the CBD, the IT Corridor, the SBD and the PBD. The SBD comprises Guindy, Manapakkam, Velachery and other areas. The PBD primarily includes Ambattur and GST Road, while the IT Corridor is the old Mahaballipuram Road (oMR) in south Chennai. Bengaluru (Bangalore) Prime office properties in Bengaluru can be divided into three principal sub-market CBD, the SBD consisting of Banerghatta Road & outer Ring Road (oRR) and PBD including Hosur Road, EPIP Zone, Electronic City and Whilefield. Pune The prime office sub-markets of Pune include Deccan Gymkhana, Senapati Bapat Road & Camp (SBD), while the PBD includes Aundh, Bund Garden, Airport Road and kalyani Nagar, among other locations. The eastern corridor, along with Nagar Road and kharadi, have emerged as a preferred location for financial and IT/ITES companies. Kolkata The major business locations in kolkata are CBD (Park Street, Camac Street, Chowranghee Rd), SBD (AJC Bose Rd, Ballygunge circular Rd, East kolkata), East kolkata and PBD (New Town & Rajarhat). The area around Park Street, Camac Street and AJC Bose road houses number of high-rises commercial buildings such as Chatterjee International Centre, Tata Centre, Everest House and Industry House among others.
CITY BAROMETER
Increasing as compared to previous quarter Decreasing as compared to previous quarter Remained stable from previous quarter
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 11
: Prabhu Raghavendra, office Director Prabhu.raghavendra@colliers.com 31/A, 3rd floor, Film Center, 68, Tardeo Road, Mumbai, India - 400 034. Tel : +91 22 4050 4500, fax : +91 22 2351 4272
AUTHORS
Amit Oberoi MRICS National Director, Valuation & Advisory; Research Email: Amit.oberoi@colliers.com Surabhi Arora MRICS Associate Director, Research Email: Surabhi.arora@colliers.com Sachin Sharma Assistant Manager, Research Email: Sachin.sharma@colliers.com Heliana Mano Assistant Manager,Valuation & Advisory Email: Heliana.mano@colliers.com For general queries and feedback : India.Research@colliers.com Tel: +91 124 456 7580
Delhi NCR : Ajay Rakheja, office Director Ajay.rakheja@colliers.com New Delhi : Statesman House, 4th Floor, Barakhamba Road, Connaught Place, New Delhi, India - 110001 Tel : +91 11 3044 6423, fax : +91 11 3044 6500 Gurgaon : Technopolis Building, 1st floor, DLF Golf Course Main Road, Sector 54, Gurgaon, India - 122002 Tel : +91 124 456 7500, fax : +91 124 456 7502 Bengaluru : Goutam Chakraborthy, office Director Goutam.chakraborthy@colliers.com Prestige Garnet, Level 2, Unit No.201/202, 36 Ulsoor Road, Bengaluru, India - 560 042 Tel : +91 80 4079 5500, fax : +91 80 4112 3131 Pune : Suresh Castellino, office Director Suresh.castellino@colliers.com Hotel Le Meridian, 101, R.B.M. Road, Pune, India - 411 001 Tel : +91 20 4120 6438, fax : +91 20 4120 6434 : kaushik Reddy, office Director kaushik.reddy@colliers.com Heavitree Complex, Unit 1C, 1st floor, 23, Spurtank Road, Chetpet, Chennai, India - 600 031 Tel : +91 44 2836 1064, fax : +91 44 2836 1377 : Soumya Mukherjee , office Director Soumya.mukherjee@colliers.com Infinity Business Centre, Infinity Benchmark, Room No 13, Level 18, Plot G - 1, Block EP & GP, Salt Lake Sector V, kolkata - 700 091 West Bengal, India Tel : +91 33 2357 6501, fax : +91 33 2357 6502
Chennai
Kolkata
This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com/India. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at the number indicated above. This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. Copyright 2012 - 2013 All Rights Reserved.
Recent Reports :
INDIA oFFICE INDIA RESIDENTIAL APAC oFFICE GLoBAL INDUSTRIAL
SECOND HALF 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
GLoBAL oFFICE
SECOND HALF 2011 | OFFICE
INDIA BUDGET
Q1 2012 | RESEARCH
HIGHLIGHTS
GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL
HIGHLIGHTS
GLOBAL OFFICE
A SNEAK PREVIEW
Company
BSE SENSEX Realty Index Anant Raj Inds D B Realty DLF Godrej Properties HDIL Hubtown Ltd. Indiabulls Real Estate Mahindra Lifespaces Orbit Corp. Parsvnath Developers Peninsula Land Phoenix Mills Sobha Developers Sunteck Realty Unitech
Change (%)
-1.19 -1.26 -6.04 -2.02 0.15 -2.82 -5.21 -4.13 -1.95 -0.72 -3.37 -4.04 -3.18 -2.65 3.04 -1.13 -1.68
Global Industrial Trend Forecast Growing global trade will steady demand for quality warehouse space in many regions.
DEC 2011
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
we expect overall warehouse rents in the So Paulo region to rise by as much as four percent in the coming year. Mexico City saw a three percent decrease in its industrial vacancy rate in the second half of 2011, down to 4.8 percent. Mexico was more negatively affected by the recession than most countries in North America, and its economic future is largely tied to that of its key trading partner, the United States. But with U.S. growth on the upswing, Mexico too is poised to grow at a modest rate and we expect that vacancies could make further drops in the country. Steady Demand in North America Since peaking in 2010, growth in the manufacturing and distribution industry has kept the U.S. vacancy rate dropping in a mostly regular fashion. Vacancy dropped to 9.72 percent in Q4 2011. With construction proceeding at low levels, we expect vacancies to continue to drop at a measured rate into 2013. Toronto, Canadas biggest industrial market, saw 13.7 million square feet of industrial space absorbed in 2011, and the citys prime warehouse rents grew by 7.1 percent in the second half of 2011. Dropping Vacancies in Most Asian Markets Asia Pacific saw dropping vacancies in nearly every market. Prime warehouse rents grew in more than half of the markets, and observers in more than half of those markets expect that warehouse rents will continue to climb over the next six months. Australian industrial has been especially strong in most major markets. Retail purchases, made more attractive by the relatively strong Australian dollar, have pushed up demand for large warehouse space in several port markets. While there is growing demand for large modern warehouse
Continued on page 8
REGION Asia Pacific Asia Pacific EMEA Asia Pacific NA NA EMEA EMEA NA EMEA NA NA Asia Pacific Asia Pacific EMEA Asia Pacific LATAM EMEA EMEA EMEA
DEC 2010
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Industrial vacancy rates will further drop in most markets. Some markets, U.S. and Australia among them, will experience a lack of new supply in the face of growing demand. Prime warehouse rents will climb in most Asia Pacific markets, remain stable in EMEA and LATAM, and continue to strengthen in North American markets. Citing deteriorating financial conditions and dimming growth prospect, the International Monetary Funds (IMF) revised its September 2011 World Economic Outlook growth projections downward in January 2012. However, the IMF still forecasts that global trade volume will rise by 3.8 percent in 2012 and 5.4 percent in 2013; as global trade rises, so too will demand for warehouse space. While warehouse rents have stabilized in most EMEA and Latin American markets, prime warehouse rents quoted in local currencies increased in the majority of Asia Pacific and North American markets in 2011 over the previous year. We expect this trend to continue, with prime warehouse rents climbing in most Asia Pacific and North American markets in the next year. Latin American Rents Poised to Stabilize In Latin America, prime warehouse rental rates took a fall. In 71.4 percent of the markets we track, year-end rents decreased in 2011 from a year earlier. However, we expect warehouse rents in Latin America to stabilize in the coming year. So Paulo saw a 12.4 percent drop in warehouse rents in local currency, due to increased supply. However, with absorption set to outpace supply,
CBD CAP RATE (%) DEC 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . JUNE 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . DEC 2010 . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee started his budget speech 2012-13 in the backdrop of challenging macroeconomic scenario. The finance minister projects the economy to grow by 7.6% in the next fiscal up from 6.9% in 2011-12. He mentioned that due to adverse global economic sentiments there has been a slowdown in the Indian Economy but the fact is India still remains among the front runners in the economic growth in any cross country comparison. The budget aims at faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth across sectors emphasizing on five focus areas including revival of domestic consumption, rapid revival of high growth in private investment, removal of supply bottlenecks, addressing malnutrition in 200 high burden districts and expedite improvement in delivery system, governance and transparency. From a real estate perspective, the budget remained silent on most of the major issues including status of STPIs (Software Technology Parks of India), Real Estate Regulatory Bill, Land Bill etc. however, it mentioned that efforts are on to arrive at a political consensus on the issue of allowing 51% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail. THE KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE BUDGET WHICH MAY IMPACT REAL ESTATE SECTOR ARE AS FOLLOWS: - External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) for low cost affordable housing projects. Impact: Real estate companies developing large affordable housing projects with large fund requirements will benefit the most from the easing of external commercial borrowing (ECB) norms as interest rate charged is lower in case of external borrowings in comparison to rates charged by domestic institutions. - Increase in provision under Rural Housing Fund to INR 4,000 crore from the existing INR 3,000 crore.Impact: It will provide housing finance to targeted groups in rural areas at competitive rates. - Extension of the existing scheme of interest subvention of 1% on housing loans up to INR 15 lakh where the cost of the house does not exceed INR 25 lakh for another year. Impact: This will boost the affordable housing segment by providing cheaper loan to the end users.
RENT
MARKET
Tokyo London (Heathrow) Hong Kong Singapore Zurich Oslo Moscow Geneva So Paulo Helsinki Marseilles Paris
REGION
Asia Pacific EMEA Asia Pacific Asia Pacific EMEA EMEA EMEA EMEA LATAM EMEA EMEA EMEA
6-MONTH CHANGE*
-.% .% .% .% .% .% .% -.% -.% .% .% .%
*Local currency
DEC 2011 . . . . . . . . .
JUNE 2011 . . . . . . . . . .
DEC 2010 . . . . . . . . . .
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EMEA and Asia Pacific Lead Global Construction A significant percentage of the office space under Select Asia Pacific Markets See Big Vacancy Drops The global trend in dropping vacancy rates should be evi- construction is in Europe, the Middle East and Africa dent in Asia and continue through 2012. Markets that saw (EMEA), and much of that is occurring in Moscow and a drop in vacancy in the second half of 2011 outnumbered Dubai. While both of these markets should expect strong by a two-to-one margin those where vacancy increased. economic growth in 2012, the fact that Dubaiwith a vacancy rate of 50 percentis constructing at such a pace Of the worlds most populous markets, those with the most leads us to expect that supply will continue to outpace significant declines in six-month vacancy rates were nearly demand in that market. all in the Asia Pacific region. Chengdu, propelled by its strong manufacturing sector, saw its vacancy rate drop by The other two top markets for office construction are in the GuangzhouChinas leading 7.8 percent in the period, and Shanghai saw a 3.2 percent Asia Pacific region. commercial port cityand Tokyo have 19.6 and 15.6 million drop in vacancy. square feet under construction respectively. Asian economic Two other large Asian markets saw vacancy rates drop by growth rates will remain strong in the coming months, with 1.5 percent or more: Jakarta, which has also seen China and India leading the pack. Rents are on the rise in sustained growth in CBD rental rates and renewed global most cities in the region. However, dropping rents in Seoul investor interest; and Singapore, where occupancies are and Hong Kong are a potential indicator of global economic expected to stabilize. uncertainty. In Tokyo, where new supply has been increasing for the past three years, we expect construction to peak and Marquee Markets See Rent Decline begin to decline in the coming year. While Hong Kong, Londons West End and Paris command the top three highest asking rents for Class A office space,
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