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IRB Infrastructure
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights - Consolidated
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Op. profit Net profit 2QFY13 845 381 121 2QFY12 736 321 110 1QFY13 980 425 142 % chg (yoy) 14.9 18.4 9.9 % chg (qoq) (13.7) (10.5) (14.7)
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others Abs. (%) Sensex IRB 3m 9.5 11.0 1yr 12.0 (9.0) 62.7 4.1 22.9 10.4 3yr 11.8 (41.2) Infrastructure 3,983 6,200 1.4 210/100 1,049,192 10 18,793 5,717 IRBI.BO IRB@IN
`120 `164
12 Months
For 2QFY2013, IRB Infrastructure (IRB) reported a modest set of numbers. The companys revenue came slightly below our expectation, but owing to better-thanexpected performance at the EBITDAM level, earnings were higher than estimates. IRB is looking at both organic and inorganic options for growth with a threshold of 18% equity IRR and intends to allot 20% of consolidated cash flow post debt repayment towards acquisitions. In accordance with its strategy to declare ~20% of post-tax consolidated profit towards dividend, IRB declared an interim dividend of `1/share. Better-than-expected performance at the EBITDAM level: IRB reported a consolidated revenue growth of 14.9% yoy to `845cr against our estimate of `900cr. This uptick in revenue was mainly due to improved execution in under construction projects. E&C segments revenue grew by 17.8% yoy to `622cr and BOT segment witnessed a 7.7% growth to `257cr. On the EBITDAM front, IRBs margin came in at 45.0% a jump of 135bp on a yoy basis, higher than our estimate of 43.3%. Stable input prices led to an EBITDAM of 27.3% (excluding other income) for E&C segment. The interest cost came in at `148cr, registering a jump of 4.9% on a yoy basis. At the earnings front, IRB reported a growth of 9.9% to `121cr, above our estimate of `106cr on account of better-than-expected performance on the EBITDAM front and lower tax rate. Outlook and valuation: IRB has a robust order book of `7,466cr (2.9x FY2013E E&C revenue, excluding O&M orders), which lends revenue visibility. Although a slowdown in order awarding by NHAI in road sector has been witnessed in 1HFY2013 IRB expects ordering activity to improve going ahead. The stock trades at FY2013 and FY2014 P/B of 1.2x and 1.1x respectively. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `164.
FY2011 2,438 43.0 452 17.4 44.6 13.6 8.8 1.6 20.2 14.1 3.0 6.8
FY2012 3,133 28.5 496 9.6 43.7 14.9 8.0 1.4 18.8 12.4 2.9 6.7
FY2013E 3,843 22.7 560 12.8 43.1 16.8 7.1 1.2 18.3 10.7 3.2 7.3
FY2014E 4,212 9.6 593 6.0 43.6 17.8 6.7 1.1 17.0 9.3 3.4 7.9
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 845 465 381 45.0 148 111 33 155 37 119 (2) 121 14.3 3.6
2QFY12 736 414 321 43.7 141 63 30 148 37 111 1 110 15.0 3.3
% chg(yoy) 14.9 12.1 18.4 135bp 4.9 76.1 10.1 5.2 7.0 (384.7) 9.9 (65)bp 9.9
1QFY13 980 554 425 43.4 154 109 32 195 56 140 (2) 142 14.5 4.3
% chg(qoq) (13.7) (16.2) (10.5) 161bp (3.9) 1.9 1.9 (20.6) (15.0) 5.5 (14.7) 17bp (14.7)
1HFY2013 1,825 1,019 806 44.2 302 219 66 351 92 258 (4) 263 14.4 7.9
1HFY2012 1,537 886 651 42.3 259 123 58 328 81 247 2 244 15.9 7.3
% chg(yoy) 18.7 15.0 23.9 183bp 16.8 78.2 12.5 7.0 13.9 4.7 7.6 (149)bp 7.6
2QFY13 622 257 878 187 227 414 30.1 88.2 47.1 60 88 148 14 97 111 113 42 155 77 44 121
2QFY12 528 238 766 140 212 352 26.5 88.8 45.9 32 109 141 14 49 63 94 54 148 66 45 110
% chg 17.8 7.7 14.7 33.9 7.1 17.7 361bp (57)bp 210bp 89.4 (19.9) 4.9 (2.2) 98.6 76.1 20.4 (21.5) 5.2 17.3 (0.9) 9.9
1QFY13 750 262 1,012 226 232 458 30.1 88.6 45.2 60 94 154 13 96 109 153 42 195 105 37 142
% chg (17.2) (1.9) (13.2) (17.1) (2.3) (9.6) 1bp (41)bp (170)bp 0.8 (6.9) (3.9) 8.2 1.1 1.9 (26.3) 0.2 (20.6) (26.6) 18.7 (14.7)
1HFY2013 1,372 519 1,891 413 458 872 30.1 88.4 46.1 121 181 302 26 193 219 266 84 351 182 81 263
1HFY2012 1,125 471 1,596 295 415 709 26.2 88.0 44.5 60 198 259 28 95 123 207 121 328 142 102 244
% chg 22.0 10.2 18.5 40.3 10.6 22.9 392bp 36bp (30)bp 99.4 (8.4) 16.8 (4.9) 102.3 78.2 29.0 (30.5) 7.0 27.7 (20.4) 7.6
% chg 9.2 4.2 10.3 5.8 10.9 5.1 8.6 0.0 0.0 14.4 2.1 7.1
% chg(qoq) (3.7) 0.4 (7.0) (7.6) 8.9 (12.8) 5.6 (9.5) (20.8) 4.2 0.0 0.0 (4.4) (1.8)
% chg(yoy) 11.1 4.6 10.3 9.4 5.4 7.3 2.8 2.6 2.4 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
Kaman Paygaon BOT Project ** Khambatki Ghat BOT Project * Tumkur Chitradurga# Total
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Concession period of Khambatki Ghat BOT project ended on May 3, 2009, ^ Surat-Dahisar commissioned on February 20, 2009, $ Bharuch Surat BOT project commissioned on September 25, 2009, ** Kaman-Paygaon BOT project concession period stopped from November 22, 2009, # Tumkur Chitradurga Project commissioned on June 4, 2011
FY2014E Variation (%) 0.6 1.9 12.4 Earlier Estimates 4,582 43.6 563 Revised Estimates 4,212 40.2 593 Variation (%) (8.1) (7.8) 5.3 3,843 43.1 559.6
Revised Estimates
IRB is looking at both organic and inorganic options for growth with a threshold of 18% equity IRR and intends to allot 20% of the consolidated cash flow post debt repayment towards acquisitions. In accordance with its strategy to declare ~20% of post-tax consolidated profit towards dividend, IRB declared an interim dividend of `1/share during the quarter. IRB has a robust order book of `7,466cr (2.9x FY2013E E&C revenue, excluding O&M orders), which lends revenue visibility. Although a slowdown in order awarding by NHAI in road sector has been witnessed in 1HFY2013; IRB expects ordering activity to improve going ahead. As far as road EPC contracts are concerned IRB will take a call to bid or not once draft agreement is out. We have used sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method to value the stock. We value the construction business at a P/E of 5x FY2014 earnings estimate and IRBs BOT projects on a DCF basis at a CoE of 14%. We have not included the Sindhudurg airport project, real estate business and the 4-star hotel in Kolhapur in our SOTP valuation. We maintain a Buy rating and target price of Rs164, indicating an upside of 37%.
PWD MORTH MORTH Mah. 16.0 Mah. 16.0 Mar-03 Mar-19 63 18 45 5% 3% Mah. 18.0 Sep-03 Sep-21 74 6 68 5% 5% -
MSRDC MSRDC Mah. 15.0 Aug-04 Aug-19 1,292 105 1,187 5% #18% 10.6%
$
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Once in three years; IRB had shared 38% of its FY2011 revenue with NHAI and the same increases by 1% every year; @ IRB is expected to pay a sum of `309.6cr to NHAI from FY2013 and the sum increases by 5% every year
16.8 17.8
Investment arguments
Integrated business model: IRBs integrated business model ensures the timely completion of projects, reduces its reliance on subcontractors and controls costs. Further, it allows capturing the entire value in the BOT development business, including EPC margins, developer returns and operation and maintenance (O&M) margins. OB/Sales provide good revenue visibility: IRB achieved its yearly order inflow guidance by winning the Ahmedabad Vadodara project and is staying away from current competition. The order book of `7,466cr, excluding O&M orders (2.9x FY2013E E&C revenue), lends good revenue visibility for the next few years. Negligible dependence on capital markets: IRBs internal accruals/support (cash flows from the E&C and BOT segments) would substantially fund equity requirement of its current portfolio. Further, the company would be able to keep its debt-equity position within reasonable limits.
Concerns
Delay in order awarding: IRB, being a road-focused player, is dependent on NHAI for road awarding activity. Thus, any slowdown from NHAIs end would affect IRBs order inflow. However, given the huge bidding pipeline of NHAI, IRB should perform well, as it is one of the market leaders. Interest rate: BOT projects are inherently high-leverage projects. Hence, IRBs business model is vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations, and any hike in interest rates could increase the companys interest costs. Commodity risks: Road players are facing pressures from the recent price inflation in commodities such as cement and steel, which directly affect margins.
Company background
Incorporated in 1998, IRB is the pioneer and one the largest players in the road BOT business in India, with strong in-house integrated execution capabilities. IRBs road business can be divided into two verticals: 1) engineering and construction (E&C); and 2) toll collection and maintenance. The E&C arm complements its BOT vertical and leads to time and cost control for projects in hand/under development. The company also has one airport project, which is at a very nascent stage; decent land bank; and one small wind mill project.
1,638 1,748
Company ABL CCCL IRB Infra ITNL IVRCL JP Assoc. L&T Madhucon NCC Punj Lloyd Sadbhav Simplex In.
Real Estate ` 30 2 2 % to TP 33 3 4 `
Others % to TP 33 33 12 15 14 36 21 34 -
10
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Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in Working Capital Less: Other income Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments Other income Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 215 110 (120) (39) (38) 128 (807) 88 39 (681) (0) 465 (65) 45 445 (107) 522 415 417 107 141 (51) (13) 601 (984) 66 51 (867) 429 (76) 9 362 95 415 510 576 218 111 (64) (112) 729 (1,740) (10) 64 (1,686) 0 1,709 (60) (3) 1,647 690 510 1,200 651 295 (188) (125) (155) 478 (2,425) 41 125 (2,259) (0) 2,448 (72) 25 2,401 621 1,200 1,821
FY2013E 746 429 (69) (134) (187) 785 (3,650) (10) 134 (3,525) 2,400 (148) 2,252 (488) 1,821 1,333
FY2014E 791 534 (125) (147) (198) 855 (3,180) (10) 147 (3,043) 1,700 (148) 1,552 (636) 1,333 697
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 1.2 4.7 2.2 1.2 3.0 2.5 1.4 3.1 2.5 1.8 3.8 2.0 2.5 4.9 2.0 2.8 5.7 2.0 0.4 47 5 87 191 0.5 40 5 62 133 0.6 25 5 125 112 0.6 19 3 168 109 0.5 19 2 153 114 0.4 21 2 151 127 8.1 13.8 10.5 13.2 20.3 20.4 14.1 24.2 20.2 12.4 23.2 18.8 10.7 17.8 18.3 9.3 14.3 17.0 32.7 82.4 0.3 7.6 5.4 1.1 9.9 36.2 96.8 0.4 14.2 9.0 1.2 20.3 35.4 80.6 0.5 13.2 7.5 1.3 20.6 34.2 76.2 0.4 11.5 7.1 1.6 18.6 31.9 75.0 0.4 9.3 5.6 2.2 17.4 30.9 75.0 0.3 7.6 4.8 2.7 14.9 5.3 5.3 8.7 1.7 52.1 11.6 11.6 17.1 1.9 61.4 13.6 13.6 20.4 1.5 73.2 14.9 14.9 23.9 1.8 85.9 16.8 16.8 29.7 3.7 98.3 17.8 17.8 33.9 3.7 111.7 22.7 13.7 2.3 1.4 6.1 13.8 1.4 10.3 7.0 2.0 1.6 3.7 8.0 1.3 8.8 5.9 1.6 1.3 3.0 6.8 1.0 8.0 5.0 1.4 1.5 2.9 6.7 0.9 7.1 4.0 1.2 3.1 3.2 7.3 0.9 6.7 3.5 1.1 3.1 3.4 7.9 1.0 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
IRB Infra No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
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