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Analytical approach
Gravity model, calibrated on intra-EU trade, to predict extra-EU trade Calibrate GTAP model to replicate trade potential, then recalibrate it (with new set of parameters on consumer preferences) to reproduce actual trade flows and provide estimates of tariff equivalents of NTMs Use information of prevalence of different types of NTMs in different countries and sectors from NTM-inventory to econometrically establish a ranking of NTMs according to their trade impact
Gravity model
Basic gravity model (economic size, distance, overseas-dummy) Estimated at the sectoral level (10 sectors) Germanys exports to other EU member countries and non-EU OECD countries
Problems:
Out of sample estimation Comparative advantage/disadvantage in sectors
Problems:
Estimation errors from first step (gravity model) are carried through Tariff equivalents of NTMs not always appropriate, because often not generating any government revenue
A v e ra g e
A g ric u ltu re
M in in g
Food
T e x tile s & L e a th e r
C h e m ic a ls
M e ta ls & M in e ra ls
M a c h in e ry
Ranking of NTMs
Information on prevalence of NTMs from EU Market Access database
Business complaints about NTMs (including behind the border barriers) Information on type of NTM, sector of occurrence, country of occurrence Adjustments if a complaint concerns several NTMs or several sectors
Relating aggregate tariff equivalents of NTMs to number of complaints about different types of NTMs in sectors/countries
1 4 23 25 8 8 2 2 73
1 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 6
7 13 22 29 22 4 5 3 106
2 1 7 6 13 2 3 1 36
0 1 1 4 7 0 0 0 13
0 6 21 11 6 5 5 5 59
0 2 4 4 3 4 0 1 17
11 2 12 42 16 38 7 5 133
24 29 93 121 76 63 23 16 442
Problems:
P ara-tariff m easures
P rice/finance contro ls
Q uantity co ntrols
T echnical regulatio ns
D o m estic restrictions
Infringem ent o f IP R
Further work
Improvement of gravity model specification and estimation Modeling NTMs in terms of unobserved trade costs (Hertel/Walmsley/Ikatura, 2001) rather than as tariff equivalents Exploration of alternative sources on NTM prevalence