APrimeronSystemsThinking&Organizational Learning

JohnJ.Shibley/ThePortlandLearning OrganizationGroup
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MakingLoops:AMethodforDrawingCausalLoopDiagrams: Introduction
ThisarticledescribesamethodfordrawingCausalLoopdiagrams, ofgoingfromastoryinwhichone"smellsaloop"toafullyformed CausalLoop.Thisisnotanarticleforinnocents.Itassumesyou haveabasicunderstandingofreinforcingandbalancingstructures, andthatyou'vestruggledwithtryingtomakeCausalLoop diagrams. Thismethodgrewoutofamutualinquirywithmyclientsinthe SystemsThinkingLearningGroupatColumbiaSt.Mary's HospitalinMilwaukee.TheywantedtoknowhowI"didit"howI madeloopsfromthestoriestheytoldme. IrealizedIwasinterestedinthistoo,andsowebeganaprocessof watchingmework,developingamodelaboutwhatIwasdoing, andrefiningthismodelthroughseveraliterationsoffurther observationandmodelmaking. Here'sthemethod... 1.Senseastory 2.Listentothestory 3.Listentothestoryagain,with"variableears" 4.Createvariables 5.Createlinks 6.Seeifthelinksmakealoop

Therearealsotwogeneralrulesthatpermeatethemethod: Rule#1:Asyoumovethroughthemodel,freelyusewhat youlearntorevisitandrefineworkdoneinearlierstages. Rule#2:Duringitall,attendtotheassumptionsbeing made,andthewaythoseassumptionsareformedoutof data. Nogoodmethodiscompletewithoutapicture.Here'sthepicture wecreated...

BeginningwithTheStory,oneproceedsthroughaprocessof Identifyingthevariablesinvolved Establishingthelinksbetweenvariables Creatingloopsbasedontheselinks Thisprocessisshownintheheavylinessinceitisthe primarypathforwardtowardafinishedcausalloop. Thelighterlinesillustratethattheprocessisiterative (Rule#2),andrequiresconstantattentiontothe assumptionmakingprocess(Rule#1). Therestofthisarticleexplainseachstepinmoredetail. I'dbeverypleasedifthispiecedidoneofthefollowingforyou. Maybe,justmaybe,thewayI"do"loopswillhelp youdoloops.

Evenifmyapproachdoesn'tworkforyou,Ihopeit ishelpfulforyoutoseehowonepersonapproaches thischallenge. Mostimportantly,Ihopethefollowingencourages youtoreflectonhowyoudowhateveryoudo,to becomeamorereflectivepractitioner.

MakingLoops:AMethodforDrawingCausalLoopDiagrams: AbouttheStory
Thefirstthreestepsinthisprocessareallaboutthestory.

Step1:Senseastory. Thefirststepincreatingacausalloopdiagramis suspectingthattheremightbeoneinthefirstplace! Everydaywearebarragedbydozensofstoriesthat couldpotentiallybedescribedusingcausalloops.The abilityto"sense"whentheremaybeasystemic structuredrivingtheresultsisonequalityofa developedsystemsthinker. Icallthis"systemsensing"becauseinmyexperience therealizationthataloopmaybehidinginastoryis notsomuchathought("Oh,Ibetthere'saloophere.") asitisanintuition.It'slikeagentleticklesomewhere inyourconsciousness.Thistickle,ifattendedto,will

leadtothethought"Oh,Ibetthere'saloophere." However,thethoughtisnotfirst,thetickleis. This"systemsensibility"isprobablythehardesttask forthebeginningsystemthinkertounderstand,let alonedevelop.I'mnotsurehowonedevelopsitother thanpracticingdrawingcausalloopsoverandover.I thinkit'salittlelikelearningtobeamusician.The bestmusicianshaveamusical"sense"ofwhatwill work,butthatsenseusuallydevelopsonlyaftermany yearsofheavyliftinglikescaleworkandpractice. Inanycase,Idobelievepeoplecanbecomebetterat sensingthesystemthinkingtickle,firstbysimply knowingit'sthere,andsecondlybylisteningforit. Step2:Listentothestory Onceyousensethattheremaybea"loopable"story listentothestory.Justlisten.Listenwithouttryingto findthearchetypeorthelooporanyofthat.Just listen. Howcome?Tworeasons. 1.It'sreallygooddiscipline.Mostofus wanttoleapintoaction,topursueour insightsthewayadogrunsafterabone. Theconsequencecanbethatweendup hearinganddrawingthestorywetell ourselvesinsteadofthestoryourclient tellsus. 2.Drawingloopsisarationalprocess informedbyintuition,andintuition,as anygoodpsychotherapistwilltellyou, requirestheinvolvementofthe unconscious.Theunconsciousisa

necessarypartnertotherational,but willoftennotparticipateunlessinvited. Byhearingthestoryoncewithablank mind,weinviteourunconsciousto becomeinvolved. OK,soyou'veheardthestory.Nowwhat? Step3:Listentothestoryagain,with"variableears". Thesecondstepis"Listentothestoryagain,with 'variableears'".Havethestorytellertellthestory again,andthistimelistenwithyourattention particularlyattunedtothingsinthestorythatare increasingordecreasing,trendinginonedirectionor theotherorperhapsbothatdifferenttimes. What'savariable? Variablesarethosethingsinthestorythatchange, thatincreaseordecreaseovertime.Asoundloopis builtonsoundvariables.Ifthefinalloopyoucreate willbethegraphicequivalentofthestoryyou've heard,thevariablesarethecarefullychosenwordsof thatstory. Forexample,considerthisstory... "Thisstockmarketisreallysomething, eh?Stockpricesarehigh,sopeoplefeel reallyoptimistic,andsotheybuymore, whichdrivesstockpricesevenhigher. Thatmakespeopleevenmore optimistic,sotheybuyevenmorestock, drivingpriceshigheragain." Inthisstory,therearethreethingsthatarechanging overtime,allincreasing:stockprices,market optimismandbuying.Thosearethevariablesinthis story.

MakingLoops:AMethodforDrawingCausalLoopDiagrams: Variables
Step4:Createvariables.

Ifyouletthestorytellerknowthatyou'repaying attentiontothevariablesinthestory,youmayfind thattheytellthestorywitha"variabletongue" (yuck!).Theywillbegintouselanguagelike"this goesup"or"thisgoesdown"astheyretellthestory. They'reownunderstandingofthestorywillbeginto shapeitselfintotherawmaterialofacausalloop. Noticeatthispointthatyou'restillONLYlistening.In fact,thismaybethethirdtimeyou'veheardthestory. That'sOK.Ifinditsometimestakesthreeiterations beforeI'vequietedthenoiseinmyownheadenough toreallyhearthestoryinmyclient'shead.

Onceyou'veheardthestoryagain,moveto identifyingthevariablesthatmightbeinplay.The drivetomakethevariablesrightinevitablycausesus toreturntothestoryitself,anddeepenour understandingofit.That'swhythepictureabovehas alightpathleadingfromtheVariablesbacktoThe Story (Notsurewhatavariableis?Gobackonepagetothat section.)

Inreality,therearetwoseparatestepshere. Thefirststepisgettingpotentialvariablespublic.I liketowritevariablesonlargepostitsandstickthem toaflipcharteasel,inwhatamountstoabrainstorm method.Itmakesitveryeasytomovethevariables aroundoncethey'recreated,andsavesalotofrewrite time. Forafirstpass,Isimplyrecordthevariableswithout worryingabouthow"good"theyareasvariables. Let'slookforthevariablesinourexampleofthestock market. TheStory The Variables

"Thisstockmarketisreally something,eh?Stockpricesare StockPrices high,sopeoplefeelreally optimistic,andsotheybuymore, Buyer whichdrivesstockpriceseven Optimism higher.Thatmakespeopleeven moreoptimistic,sotheybuyeven Buying morestock,drivingpriceshigher again." Thesecondstepistogetverypreciseaboutwhat eachvariableshouldsay,whichisreallyaprocessof helpingpeopleclarifytheirthinking. Ifindthesechallengesincreatingvariables... Being"tight":Avariablesshouldbe measurable.Ideally,youshouldbeable tocreateatrendchartofthevalues describedinthevariables.

Thinkbacktoourexampleofthestock market.Eachofthosevariables(stock prices,buyeroptimismandbuying) couldbemeasured. Being"right":Thevariableneedsto describethethingthatactuallychanges. Thiscanprovemorechallengingthanit sounds.Oftenyouhavetoworkwith peopletohelpthemthinkcarefully aboutwhatexactlyincreasesor decreases. Forexample,takethevariable"buying" inourstockmarketstory.Doesthe storytellermeanthemarketvolume,the numberofinvestors,ortherationof buyingtoselling?Eachmaybea legitimatevariable,whichistruetothe story? Beingprolific:Oftenatthisstagein developingthecausallooppeoplewill seeagreatmanypotentialvariables, obviouslyfarmorethanwillbeusefulin creatinganelegant,descriptiveloop.I usuallyerronthesideofinclusion, It'salsohelpfultostatethevariableinneutral language.Forexample,thevariable"Stockprices" couldbestatedas"Increaseinstockprices".However, theloopshouldbeaseasytounderstandwiththe marketincreasingordecreasing,andittakessome mentalgymnasticstofigureoutwhata"decreasein theincrease"is(sayTHATthreetimesfast!).It'smuch simplertostatethevariableas"Stockprices"and havethosemistakesdecreaseorincrease.

Withourexampleofthestockmarketstory,let's assumethatafterworkingthevariableswesettleon thesethree: For"StockPrices" I'dprobablysuggestthatthe"DowAverage"is reallywhatisbeingreferredtohere,andseeif thestorytellerwouldagreetoit.Ifnot,we'd keepworking,becauseit'stheirstory. For"Buyer Optimism" Thisoneistricky.ThereisanIndexof ConsumerConfidencethatmeasuresthis.I'dbe inclinedtoleavethevariableasitis, acknowledgingthatwehavenoexactmeasure ofit,thoughwecouldcreateoneifwehadto. Trickierstill.Itseemstomethatwhatthestory tellerisreallytalkingabouthereisthe behavioralresponsetoanincrease(ordecrease) inoptimism.Itseemstobeaboutdemandfor stocks,sinceincreaseddemandiswhatdrives pricesupward.(Notethatadecreaseindemand forstockswouldalsodecreasestockprices.) Let'ssettleonthevariable"DemandforStocks"

For"Buying"

MakingLoops:AMethodforDrawingCausalLoopDiagrams: Links,S'sandO's
Step5:Createlinks

Onceyou'vegotthekeyvariablesdescribedclosely enough,askpeopletolinkthevariablesdescribed.By

thistimeyou'veprobablygotanideaaboutwhereto start.Putthatpostitonacleanpieceofflipchart paper. Twovaluablequestionsare"Whatdoesthisleadto?", whichgetsthearrowmovingforward,and"What leadstothis?"whichhelpspeopleidentifythe precedingvariable. Whenweaddlinksbetweenvariables,wearemaking visibleourassumptionthatthereisacausalthe relationshipbetweenthem,thatoneimpactsthenext. Thisprocessofclarifyingdifferentassumptionsisone ofthemostusefulresultsofacausalloopexercise. Forexample,inthislink... ...we'reassertingthatarelationship existsbetweenthedescriptivenessof theTVviolenceratingsystemandthe absoluteamountofviolenceonTV. TranslatedintoEnglish,we wouldreadtheabovelink likethis... "Achangeinthe descriptivenessoftheTV violenceratingsystemwill causeachangeinthe amountofviolenceon TV."

However,differentpeoplewillassumedifferent thingsaboutthisrelationship;someclaimingthatthe amountofviolenceonTVwillincreaseasaresultof thedescriptivenessoftheratingsystem,some claimingthatitwilldecrease. Incausalloopgrammar,wesaythatonevariable causesthenexttochangeineitherthesameorthe oppositemanner.Ifthechangeisinthesame

direction,welabelitwithan"S".Ifthechangeisin theoppositedirection,thenwelabelitwithan"O". Ifyoubelievethatanincreaseinthe descriptivenessoftheTVviolence ratingsystemwillleadtoadecreasein theamountofTVviolence,thenputan Oonthelink,likethis... Achangeintheratingsystemwill causeanopposite("O")change"in TVviolence".

Thislinkreads...

ThisistheargumentbasedonthebeliefTVshows willtrytoavoidmoreextremeratings,thewaythat moviesworktoavoidanXrating,becauseitwill driveawayaudiences. Thecounterarguementisthatviolenceandsex attractsviewers,whichwillleadtohighratings, whichwillleadtohigherlevelsofviolenceasother showsstrivetocompete. Thatlinkwouldbelabeledlike this... Asasentence,itwould read...

"Achangein therating systemwill causethe same("S") typeof changeinthe amountof

violenceon TV." (ReturntoDrew'sNote) Inourstockmarketexample,wewouldendupwith theselinks. Achangeinthedemandforstock causesthesame(S)kindofchange intheDowAverage.Thatis,as demandincreasestheDow Averageincreasesinturn. AchangeintheDowAverage causesthesame(S)kindofchange inBuyerOptimism.AstheDow rises,orfalls,BuyerOptimismwill dothesame. AchangeinBuyerOptimism causesthesame(S)kindofchange inDemandforStock.As Optimismfalls,sowillDemand. Youinevitablymakefalsestartsanderrorsatthis point,pursuingachainofcausaleventsonlyto realizeyou'veheadeddownablindalley.Thisisnot anindicationthatsomethingis"goingwrong".Quite thecontrary:understandingwhatisnotgoingonis animportantsteptowardbuildinganaccurate pictureofwhatishappening.

MakingLoops:AMethodforDrawingCausalLoopDiagrams: CreatingLoops,andSoWhat?
Step6.:Seeifthelinksmakealoop

Thisstepisnotabsolutelydistinctfromtheone above.(Asyoucansee,Itgrowsoutofthecreationof asetoflinksthatinevitablefeedbackonitselftomake awhole.Inreality,iftheinitialstepshavebeendone well,thecreationofadescriptiveloopusually happensnaturallyandeasily. Inourstockmarketexample,wewouldendupwith thispicture. TheStory "Achangeinthe demandforstockcauses thesamekindofchange intheDowAverage. Thisinturncausesthe sametypeofchangein buyeroptimism,which causesthesametypeof changeinthedemand forstock." Noticethatthisloopwill"work"ineitherarisingor fallingmarket.Thisisoneofthewaysthatyouknow you'vedrawntheloopinatechnicallycorrectway. Sowhat?

OK,soyou'vedrawnaloop.Bigdeal.Howdoesit helpyou? Loopshelpyouintwoways. First,theprocessofgettingtoaloopthateverybody agreesonforcespeopletomakeexplicittheir assumptions.That'sthereasonfortherule... Rule#2:Duringitall,attendtothe assumptionsbeingmade,andthewaythose assumptionsareformedoutofdata. One'sviewofsystemicdynamicreflectsone'sown mentalmodels.Astheprocessaboveisunfolding, onewillstumbleovertheseassumptions.Theworkof creatingvariablesorlinksdrivespeoplebackto clarifytheirstory,andthatworkinturnforcespeople tomakeexplicittheassumptionstheirstoryisbased on,andthedatathatledthemtothoseassumptions. One'sview ofsystemic dynamic reflectsone's ownmental models.As theprocess aboveis unfolding, onewill stumbleover these assumptions. Theworkof creating variablesor linksdrives

peopleback toclarify theirstory Thiswork,in turn,forces peopleto makeexplicit the assumptions theirstoryis basedon, andthedata thatledthem tothese assumptions. Inourstockmarketexample,itmaybethatsome peoplefeelstronglythathardeconomicsdrivethe marketfarmorethanthemoodofbuyers,while othersmayseemarketbehaviorasmoresociological, asintheexample.Theprocessofarticulatingthe story,variablesandlinkssomehowmakesitpossible toexposedifferencesinarationalway,inawaythat leadstowonderinghowother'sseeitdifferently, ratherthanattemptingtoprovethemwrong. Second,theloophelpsyouunderstandthewaythat theelementsinthesystemarereinforcingor balancingoneanother.Inthestockmarketexample wecanseethatthethreevariablesinteractinaway thatkeepsthemallincreasing,orinabearmarket, decreasing. Onceweknowwhatisreallyhappening,wecan inventresponsesthathavemorechanceof succeeding.Anotherarticleonthissite,APractice TheoryforOrganizationalLearning,describesa LearningActionMatrixdescribing4different"zones" ofworkthatgroupscanmovethroughtointegrate

actionandreflection.Includedinthatpieceareaset ofrulestohelppeopleredesignsystems. Forsomemoretipsondrawingcausalloops,gohere. Formoreaboutfeedback,readAnIntroductionto FeedbackbyLeslieMartinattheMITSystems DynamicsRoadMapsite. Acknowledgments Iwanttogivespecialacknowledgmenttothe Columbia/St.MarysHospitalSystemsThinking StudyGroupinMilwaukee,Wisconsin,andto StephanieSpeerforherpassionaboutstorytelling.