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The Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs is produced by Markit. The report is designed to provide the most up-to-date picture of labour market trends in Scotland. The report is based on a monthly questionnaire survey of 105 recruitment and employment agencies operating in Scotland. The report uses an identical methodology to the highly regarded UK survey of recruitment consultancies conducted by Markit on behalf of the REC and KPMG. For further information please contact: Bank of Scotland Press Office The Mound Edinburgh, EH1 1YZ. Tel: 0131 655 5405 e-mail: ZoeRedhead@bankofscotland.co.uk Markit Economics Henley on Thames Oxon, RG9 1HG, UK Tel: +44 1491 461000 Fax: +44 1491 461001 e-mail: economics@markit.com
Both permanent and temporary appointments increase, but at slower rates Demand for staff strengthens during October Marginal rise in average salaries
The Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs indicated an increase in both permanent and temporary staff placements in October. This partly reflected greater demand for staff, with recruitment agencies reporting a strong rise in both the number of permanent and temporary jobs. Candidate availability meanwhile continued to deteriorate over the month, particularly for permanent staff, and average pay edged slightly higher.
PERMANENT
Perm anent placem ents D em and for perm anent staff Perm anent salaries A vailability of perm anent staff
1 Employment 2 Vacancies 3 Sectoral demand: perm 4 Sectoral demand: temp 5 Staff availability 6 Pay pressures 7 UK regional summary
Permanent placements increased for the second month running in October. However, the rate of growth eased to a moderate pace and was slower than the UK average. Although Scottish recruitment consultancies attributed the rise in staff placements to greater demand, a number of agencies commented that some clients took a cautious approach towards hiring in the latest survey period. Staff placements in the temporary job market also increased in October, albeit the rate of growth slowed to a three-month low. Nonetheless, the latest rise in temp billings was strong and greater than that registered across the UK as a whole.
TEMPS
T em p billings D em and for tem porary staff T em p pay rates A vailability of tem porary staff
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
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Demand for both permanent and temporary staff rose strongly during the latest survey period, with the rates of vacancy growth quickening to five and three-month highs respectively. The most indemand permanent staff were those working in the Hotel & Catering sector. Concurrently, the number of candidates seeking permanent work fell further in October, with the latest reduction the second-sharpest for almost five years. Temp availability also deteriorated over the month, and to a greater extent than in September. Overall, a number of recruitment agencies reported lower availability of staff for the engineering trades.
DEMAND FOR PERMANENT STAFF Types of staff ranked by strength of demand in Scotland in October 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Hotel & Catering Engineering & Construction IT & Computing Secretarial & Clerical Nursing/Medical/Care Blue Collar Executive & Professional Accounts & Financial
DEMAND FOR TEMP/CONTRACT STAFF Types of staff ranked by strength of demand in Scotland in October 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 IT & Computing Secretarial & Clerical Engineering & Construction Blue Collar Executive & Professional Nursing/Medical/Care Hotel & Catering Accounts & Financial
November 2012
In contrast to the reduction reported in September, average salaries awarded to permanent staff increased in October. That said, the rate of inflation was only marginal and much weaker than the longrun series average. Temp hourly pay rates also increased over the month, but at the weakest pace in the current four-month sequence of inflation.
Employment
Permanent Staff Placements
Q. Is the number of people placed in permanent jobs higher, the same or lower than one month ago? Permanent staff placements increased for the second consecutive month in October, with the majority of surveyed firms reporting an increase since September. That said, the rate of growth was moderate and weaker than the long-run series average. Although panellists attributed the latest increase in staff placements to greater client demand, a cautious approach to hiring by a number of firms acted as a drag. The UK as a whole also saw an increase in permanent placements the first such rise for five months. Moreover, the rate of growth was the sharpest since May 2011.
Scotland
50 = no change on previous month 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25
Increasing rate of decline 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Increasing rate of growth
All UK
Higher %
Same %
Lower %
Net +/-
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
2012
All UK
Higher %
Same %
Lower %
Net +/-
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
2012
November 2012
Vacancies
Demand for Permanent Staff at recruitment/employment consultancies
The Vacancy Index, shown by the bars in the chart on the right, is derived from the sectoral indexes of the demand for permanent staff at recruitment consultancies (shown on page 4). The Permanent Staff Vacancy Index is a weighted average of the eight individual sector indexes. The line in the chart shows the comparable index for the UK as a whole. Scottish recruitment consultancies reported a larger number of permanent job vacancies in October. Demand for permanent staff has increased in each month since October 2010. The latest rise in job vacancies was strong and the greatest for five months. A higher number of available permanent jobs was also reported across the UK as a whole in the latest survey period. The average rate of growth for the UK was broadly similar to that recorded in Scotland and also the fastest in 16 months. Seven Scottish employment sectors posted a larger number of permanent job vacancies in October. The only exception was Accounts & Financial that saw broadly no change from one month previously.
50 = no change on previous month 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Bars: Scotland Line: UK
Increasing rate of growth
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Scotland
All UK
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
Scotland
All UK
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
IT & Computing
Scot
Nursing/Medical/Care
Scot
60 50 40 30 20 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
UK
40 30
UK
80 70
UK Scot
60 50 40 30 20
UK
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
80 70 60 50 40
UK
30 20
UK
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
UK
80 70 60 50
Blue Collar
Scot
Scot
40 30 20
UK 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The number of permanent job vacancies increased in seven sectors in October, according to Scottish recruiters. The only exception was Accounts & Financial that had broadly the same amount as in September. Demand for permanent staff grew at the Sectors ranked by demand for permanent staff in Scotland in October 2012
Sector Hotel & Catering Engineering & Construction IT & Computing Secretarial & Clerical Nursing/Medical/Care Blue Collar Executive & Professional Accounts & Financial
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
strongest pace for Hotel & Catering, with the rate of expansion marked and little changed from the 25-month high registered previously. Marked increases were also posted in the Engineering & Construction and IT & Computing sectors. In contrast to the previous two months of reductions, the number of available permanent Secretarial & Clerical jobs increased during October. The rise was solid and greater than the long-run series average. Nursing/Medical/Care and Blue Collar permanent staff also saw greater demand for their skills over the month. That said, the increase for the former was much weaker than that recorded in September. The Executive & Professional sector meanwhile saw only a marginal rise in job vacancies in October.
November 2012
IT & Computing
Scot
Nursing/Medical/Care
70 60 50
50 40 30 70 60 50 40 30
UK
40 30 20
Scot
UK
80 70 60 50
UK
40 30
Scot
20 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
80 70 60 50 40
UK Scot
UK
30 20 80 70 60 50
Blue Collar
Scot
Scot
40 30 20
UK
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Demand for temporary and contract staff increased in six Scottish sectors during October. IT & Computing posted the strongest month-on-month rise, with the rate of growth marked and the fastest since June. Vacancy growth also quickened in both Sectors ranked by demand for temp/contract staff in Scotland in October 2012
Sector IT & Computing Secretarial & Clerical Engineering & Construction Blue Collar Executive & Professional Nursing/Medical/Care Hotel & Catering Accounts & Financial Index 60.8 57.5 56.7 54.6 54.0 52.0 47.5 44.9
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
the Secretarial & Clerical and Engineering & Construction sectors. The rates of expansion were strong and at three and four-month highs respectively. Both the Blue Collar and Executive & Professional sectors posted a further rise in available temp job roles in the latest survey period. The latest increases were solid and greater than those registered one month previously. Nursing/Medical/Care meanwhile saw only a moderate rise in temp job vacancies. In contrast, lower demand for temps in the Hotel & Catering and Accounts & Financial sectors was reported by Scottish recruiters in October. Notably, the decline for the latter was marked and the sharpest for over three years.
Staff availability
Availability of Permanent Staff
Q. Is the availability of candidates for permanent vacancies better, the same or worse than one month ago? The availability of permanent staff continued to deteriorate in October, as signalled by the seasonally adjusted index remaining below the 50.0 no-change mark. Exactly 35% of surveyed firms reported a reduction compared with September, with panellists particularly mentioning lower availability for the engineering and professional trades. Overall, the index indicated a strong rate of decline in October, having fallen to its second-lowest level in almost five years. In contrast, UK data pointed to a further, albeit marginal, improvement in candidate availability during the latest survey period.
Scotland
50 = no change on previous month 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Deteriorating availability Improving availability
All UK
Higher %
Same %
Lower %
Net +/-
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
2012
All UK
Higher %
Same %
Lower %
Net +/-
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
2012
November 2012
Pay pressures
Permanent Salaries
Q. Are average salaries for permanent staff higher, the same or lower than one month ago? Scottish recruitment firms reported higher average permanent salaries in October. An increase in remuneration rates has been recorded in two out of the past three months. That said, the rate of wage inflation was only marginal and much weaker than the longrun series average. Average salaries awarded to permanent staff across the UK as a whole also increased in October, extending the current sequence of inflation to six months. Although the latest rise in permanent salaries was the greatest for three months, it was only modest overall.
Scotland
50 = no change on previous month 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35
Increasing rate of growth
All UK
Higher %
Same %
Lower %
Net +/-
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
2012
60
55
50
40
35
Increasing rate of decline 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
All UK
Higher %
Same %
Lower %
Net +/-
Index 50 = no chg
S.Adj. Index
Index 50 = no chg
S. Adj. Index
2012
UK regional summary
Region Unemployment (Sep12) 000s Rate (%)* Rank 3.0 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.9 7.7 4.8 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) South East 137 South West 87 East of England 114 London 220 East Midlands 108 Scotland 140 Wales 80 NW & Merseyside 198 West Midlands 163 Yorks & Humberside 163 Northern Ireland 63 North East 94 United Kingdom 1567
The UK claimant count fell for the third consecutive month to its lowest level since July 2011 in September. At 1,567,300, the number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell 4,000 over the month and was 21,800 lower than one year previously. Nonetheless, the decline was not large enough to reduce the unemployment rate, which remained unchanged at 4.8%. The South East and South West posted the lowest unemployment rates at 3.0% and 3.2% respectively, while on the other end of the spectrum, the North East recorded the highest unemployment rate at 7.7%. In Scotland, the claimant count fell to its lowest level since April 2011 during September. Having dropped from 141,200 in August to 139,900, Scotland saw a reduction in both the number of men and women claiming unemployment benefit over the month. Overall, the unemployment rate remained at 5.1% for a second successive month and placed Scotland sixth in the table of UK regional labour markets (right).
Source: Department for Work & Pensions and National Statistics. * As a percentage of Claimant Count + Workforce Jobs.
Survey methodology
The Bank of Scotland Survey The Bank of Scotland survey of recruitment and employment consultancies is based on information provided by a panel of 105 consultancies operating in Scotland. Data are collected monthly and converted into a seasonally adjusted series. Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. The information from the survey panel is also used in the compilation of the REC monthly survey for the UK, which appears in the monthly Report on Jobs and which uses an identical survey methodology. (The contribution of the Scotland data to the UK data is weighted to reflect Scotlands share of the total labour market.) The KPMG/REC UK Survey The KPMG/REC monthly UK recruitment survey features original research data from Markit, collected via questionnaire from a panel of UK recruitment and employment consultancies. Data for the monthly survey were first collected in October 1997 and are collected at the end of each month, with respondents asked to specify the direction of change in a number of survey variables. Index numbers Index numbers shown in the report are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an improvement, no change or decline. These indices vary between 0 and 100 with readings of exactly 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or deterioration. Reasons given by survey respondents for any changes are analysed to provide insight into the causes of movements in the indices.