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June 6th 2012 Laurentian Bank announces the acquisition of AGF Trust by B2B Trust ($242M share purchase transaction)
20%
Management and Board Rjean RobitaillePresident and CEO (employed since 1988) Michel C. Lauzon Executive VP and CFO (employed since 1988)
2
48%
32%
Personal loans
Five-Year Performance
Ishares Financial Index National Bank
Laurentian Bank
1.5
1.3
1.1
MRS Acquisition
LB announces acquisition of AGF Trust
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
Demographics of target customers (young workers, blue collar workers) allow Laurentian to have a greater chance of keeping customers
Modest GDP growth of around 2% for 2012 and 2.4% for 2013.
Unemployment is expected to remain slightly above 7% and housing starts to remain stable. Household debt levels in Canada and other developed nations are at highs
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 YTD
Average Price
Real GDP growth lags behind the Canadian average Unemployment has improved but is still higher than the average Employment in the public sector, financial services, and service industry have shown signs of softening in 2012 Housing starts improved over the summer but still remain in line with the Canadian average 4th Quarter non-residential building construction in Quebec increased 4.6%
Real GDP Increase QC. Unemployment CAN. Unemployment QC. CPI CAN. CPI
Q1 -2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 0.8 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Apr-12 8.0% 7.3% 2.4% 2.0% May-12 7.8% 7.3% 1.9% 1.2% Jun-12 7.7% 7.2% 2.0% 1.5% Jul-12 7.6% 7.3% 1.9% 1.3% Aug-12 7.6% 7.3% 2.0% 1.2%
Although there has been improvements, real GDP growth continues to lag behind the rest of Canada. We expect this gap to continue to widen through 2013.
Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island New Brunswick Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan British Columbia Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut
4% 4% 1% 5% 5% nil 2% 3% 4% 4% 4%
14% 16% 16% 10% 12% 12% 12% 10% 15% 12% 12%
Even as a minority government. Quebeckers can count on me to produce results.- Pauline Marois
Market Environment
Safe banks
5.63% 4.68% 3.07% 5.94%
7.53%
CIBC
National Bank
TD
RBC
Scotia
CWB
Laurentian
Expanded offering of McKenzie mutual funds will contribute to growth SME-Quebec loans grew by 8% and residential mortgages by 9% Commercial lending to SME reaches milestone of approx. $1 billion Improved cross over sales could be a major driver of growth for the segment
Distribution of Loans
Average Home Prices 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
Quebec Average Home Prices and Units Sold (In thousands) 11%
35%
54%
Source: CMHC
10
Average Price
Pursuing the development of commercial financing by developing new markets across Canada The commercial unit is further diversifying its risk and asset base by participating infrastructure financings
11
4.64%
6.00%
CIBC
Scotia
RBC
CWB
TD
Laurentian
27k
B2B Bank Investment Loans $ 3.30 Mortgages $ 2.50 Personal Loans $ 0.20 Total loans and Bas $ 6.00 Deposits $ 10.10 Assets under Administration 24B Number of end-clients 600,000
13
Financial Profile
Loan Growth (2005-2012YTD)
Commercial-other
Commercial Mortgage
Personal Loans
90%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
20%
10% 0%
2005
14
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012YTD
Financial Profile
Sell-Side ROE 2013E
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00% CIBC
15
National Bank
TD
RBC
Scotia
CWB
Laurentian
Headwinds
NIX Ratio is Well Above the Big-6 Average for Canadian Banking Segments
Comp Table
Price Canadian Large Cap Banks BANK OF MONTREAL BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA ROYAL BANK OF CANADA TORONTO-DOMINION BANK Average Canadian Small Cap Banks CANADIAN WESTERN BANK LAURENTIAN BANK OF CANADA Average US Large Cap Banks BANK OF AMERICA CORP CITIGROUP INC JPMORGAN CHASE & CO US BANCORP WELLS FARGO & CO Average US Regional Banks BB&T CORP COMERICA INC M & T BANK CORP PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP SUNTRUST BANKS INC Average European/UK Banks BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTA HSBC HOLDINGS PLC LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC 17 Average Market Cap
2011
$58.40 $53.99 $74.52 $56.85 $81.80 37,969,235,968 63,681,036,288 12,063,953,920 82,114,068,480 74,766,729,216 5.28 4.62 6.93 3.21 6.45
P/E
2013
5.89 5.10 8.14 5.23 7.82
2012
10.40x 11.31x 9.58x 11.53x 11.14x 10.79x
2013
9.92x 10.58x 9.15x 10.86x 10.46x 10.20x
Yield
$29.78 $46.01
2,332,597,760 1,293,687,168
2.26 4.81
2.30 5.06
2.52 5.50
$32.40 22,627,805,184 $30.51 5,908,442,624 $94.03 11,898,228,736 $61.70 32,674,220,032 $28.00 15,033,537,536
Valuation
Canadian banks are all fairly valued (ex-NA)
RBC
17.0%
TD
15.0%
BMO CWB LB
ROE
13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.00x
0.50x
1.00x
1.50x
2.00x
2.50x
Price to Book
18
Valuation
Global banks are all fairly valued
21.0% 19.0%
RBC
17.0%
TD
USB
15.0%
ROE
13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.00x
LB JPM
WFC
HSBC
0.50x
1.00x
1.50x
2.00x
2.50x
Price to Book
19
Recommendation
Buy upon weakness Laurentian Bank is Fairly Valued Based on ROE & Price to Book & PE Analysis Pros: Prior to the announcement of the AGF Trust acquisition, the stock was trading at ~$41. We would be buyers at this level which is a 7.5x PE 2013. We would become more bullish upon: Cost reductions in the retail segment of their business, increased cross-selling, and more geographical diversification of their loan portfolio If B2B Bank will successfully grow its current business with MRS & AGF, increasing ROE and Net Income Targeting niche clients securities business in retail, commercial &
Our new price target is $52, as we like the growth play of B2B Bank
20
Appendix- Management
Rejean Robitaille He has been with the company for 25 years Produced compelling financial results during the biggest financial ( Increasing EPS since 2003) for the past crisis since the last depression- CEO since 2006 He previously worked for Commercial and Retail services as well as the Trust unit
Michel Lauzon Extensive financial experience in asset management with TAL Global Asset Management. Was with LB from 1988-1998 in charge of product management, money markets and foreign exchange
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25,000.0
20,000.0 15,000.0 10,000.0 5,000.0 0
Growth Over Prior Year 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
LTM
23
0.5
0.06
0.2 Mar/2006
Mar/2007
Mar/2008
Mar/2009
Mar/2010
Mar/2011
0.02 Mar/2012
24
Consumer Loans
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-10.00%
-20.00%
-30.00%
1999
25
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011