Maurice Carroll, Director

Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,

Public Relations
Pat Smith (212) 843-8026

FOR RELEASE: JANUARY 26, 2009

MORE VOTERS BLAME KENNEDY FOR FAILED SENATE BID,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STATE POLL FINDS;
REPUBLICANS BACK GILLEBRAND MORE THAN DEMOCRATS
Caroline Kennedy and her aides are more to blame than Gov. David Paterson and his team for the
controversy surrounding her failed bid for New York’s U.S. Senate seat, voters say 49 – 15
percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 12 percent blame both camps,
while 24 percent are undecided.
New York State voters approve 46 – 30 percent, with 24 percent undecided, of Gov.
Paterson’s selection of Albany area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillebrand for the Senate seat, the
independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men approve 48 – 29 percent
while women approve 44 – 31 percent. Republicans back the selection 56 – 27 percent, a wider
margin than the 41 – 35 percent among Democrats. Independent voters back her 49 – 21 percent.
Upstate voters back the choice 55 – 25 percent, while suburban voters approve 35 – 32
percent and New York City voters approve 41 – 34 percent.
By a 25 – 10 percent margin, New York State voters have a favorable opinion of
Gillebrand, but 63 percent say they don’t know enough about her to make a decision. Her
favorability upstate is 34 – 8 percent with 58 percent who don’t know enough about her to decide.
“Blame for dithering over the choice of a U.S. Senator falls mostly on Caroline Kennedy.
But there’s an inside-baseball element in this – a lot of New Yorkers say they simply don’t know
who’s at fault,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“Kirsten who? Senator-to-be Kirsten Gillebrand is smart to instantly do let’s-get-
acquainted visits with black and Hispanic leaders. New Yorkers aren’t unfriendly, but two-thirds
of them don’t know much about her.”
“And as expected, the new Senator is more popular upstate than downstate.”
-more-

 
Quinnipiac University Poll/January 26, 2009 – page 2
While more New York State voters approve of Paterson’s selection of Gillebrand, they
split on their judgment of how he selected a new Senator, with 44 percent approving and 42
percent disapproving. Republicans approve 52 – 39 percent, while Democrats split 42 – 43
percent.
Paterson’s overall approval stands at 50 – 30 percent, down from 53 – 25 percent in a
January 15 Quinnipiac University poll. Paterson’s approval among Republican voters is up, from
41 – 38 percent to 45 – 39 percent, while approval among Democrats is down from 62 – 18
percent to 54 – 24 percent.
“New Yorkers give Paterson a split decision on how he handled the Senate selection,
despite the critical news coverage. He hurt himself among Democrats, while Republicans are
liking him a little better these days,” Carroll said.
Because of Gillebrand’s pro-gun position and her backing by the National Rifle Assn., 36
percent of New York State voters, including 50 percent of Democrats, are less likely to vote for
her when she runs for election next year, while 17 percent are more likely to vote for her. Another
41 percent say this doesn’t make a difference.
“In the Congressional district she’s represented, NRA support is a plus. Not state-wide,”
Carroll said.
From January 23 – 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,047 New York State registered
voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and
nationwide as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml,
or call (203) 582-5201.

2
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job
as Governor?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 50% 45% 54% 53% 50% 50%

Disapprove 30 39 24 28 32 29
DK/NA 20 15 22 19 18 21

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 52% 43% 45% 55% 51%

Disapprove 31 36 35 26 29
DK/NA 17 21 20 19 20

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his
job as Governor?

Jan 26 Jan 15 Dec 24 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17

2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008

Approve 50 53 53 64 56 50
Disapprove 30 25 29 14 17 10
DK/NA 20 22 18 22 27 39

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Paterson handled the process
of selecting a new United States senator to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 44% 52% 42% 43% 48% 41%

Disapprove 42 39 43 43 40 44
DK/NA 14 9 15 13 12 15

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 52% 48% 49% 47% 31%

Disapprove 31 38 36 42 53
DK/NA 17 15 15 11 15

3. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paterson's selection of Kirsten

Gillibrand
to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 46% 56% 41% 49% 48% 44%

Disapprove 30 27 35 21 29 31
DK/NA 24 17 24 30 23 25

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 61% 54% 55% 41% 35%

Disapprove 25 25 25 34 32
DK/NA 14 21 20 25 33

3
4. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you
heard enough about her?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 25% 30% 22% 28% 32% 20%

Unfavorable 10 7 11 10 10 11
Hvn't hrd enough 63 63 66 61 57 68
REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 34% 34% 34% 19% 19%

Unfavorable 6 8 8 13 13
Hvn't hrd enough 60 57 58 67 68
REFUSED - 1 1 1 1

5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard

enough about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 48% 36% 57% 44% 49% 47%

Unfavorable 25 36 19 24 26 24
Hvn't hrd enough 24 25 22 27 23 25
REFUSED 3 2 2 5 2 3

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 49% 44% 45% 52% 48%

Unfavorable 20 29 27 23 25
Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 25 22 25
REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3

TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you

heard enough about him?

Jan 26 Mar 20
2009 2008

Favorable 48 46
Unfavorable 25 3
Hvn't hrd enough 24 51
REFUSED 3 -

4
6. Who do you blame for the controversy surrounding Caroline Kennedy's failed
senate bid - Governor Paterson and his aides or Caroline Kennedy and her aides?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Paterson and aides 15% 11% 18% 16% 16% 14%

Kennedy and aides 49 63 42 54 52 47
BOTH (VOL) 12 11 11 11 13 11
DK/NA 24 16 30 20 20 28

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Paterson and aides 12% 13% 13% 18% 13%

Kennedy and aides 53 45 47 52 49
BOTH (VOL) 15 11 12 10 13
DK/NA 20 30 28 20 24

7. Does the fact that Kirsten Gillibrand is against gun control and that she is
supported by the National Rifle Association make you more likely to vote for her
for senator in 2010, less likely to vote for her, or doesn't it make a
difference?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

More likely 17% 30% 7% 22% 23% 13%

Less likely 36 16 50 24 32 38
Doesn't make diff 41 51 34 49 43 40
DK/NA 6 3 8 4 2 9

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

More likely 16% 24% 22% 12% 15%

Less likely 26 26 26 44 40
Doesn't make diff 55 45 47 35 41
DK/NA 3 5 5 8 4