Cars and Climate Change

Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse

Gas and Fuel Economy Standards:
A Global Update
2 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

The goal of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

is to dramatically reduce conventional pollution and greenhouse
gas emissions from personal, public, and goods transportation in
order to improve air quality and human health, and mitigate climate
change. The Council is made up of leading government officials
and experts from around the world that participate as individuals
based on their experience with air quality and transportation issues.
The ICCT promotes best practices and comprehensive solutions to
improve vehicle emissions and efficiency, increase fuel quality and
sustainability of alternative fuels, reduce pollution from the in-use
fleet, and curtail emissions from international goods movement.

www.theicct.org
Published by The International Council on Clean Transportation
© July 2007 The International Council on Clean Transportation
Designed by Big Think Studios
Printed on 100% recycled paper with soy-based ink
This document does not necessarily represent the views of organizations
or government agencies represented by ICCT reviewers or participants.
3 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

Authors:
Feng An
Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation
Deborah Gordon
Transportation Policy Consultant
Hui He, Drew Kodjak, and Daniel Rutherford
International Council on Clean Transportation

Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank our many colleagues around the
world that have generously contributed their time and insight in
reviewing and commenting on the draft version of this report. We
would like to thank the Hewlett and Energy Foundations for making
this report possible through their vision, energy and resources. We
are particularly grateful to the following International Council on
Clean Transportation participants who have reviewed this report
and support its findings and recommendations.
Dr. Axel Friedrich
Head, Environment, Transport, and Noise Division
Federal Environment Agency, Germany
Mr. Hal Harvey
Environment Program Director
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, USA
Dr. Dongquan He
China Transportation Program Officer
Energy Foundation, China
Dr. Youngil Jeong
Director
Korean Institute for Machinery and Materials, Korea
Dr. Alan Lloyd
President
The International Council on Clean Transportation, USA
Ms. Charlotte Pera
Senior Program Officer
Energy Foundation, USA
Dr. Leonora Rojas-Bracho
Director General, Research on Urban and Regional Pollution
National Institute of Ecology, Mexico
Ms. Anumita Roychowdhury
Associate Director, Policy Research and Advocacy
Centre for Science and Environment, India
Mr. Michael Walsh
Chairman, Board of Directors
The International Council on Clean Transportation, USA
Dr. Michael Wang
Manager, Systems Assessment Section
Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory,
USA
Dr. Martin Williams
Head, Air and Environment Quality Division
UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
4 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

Table of contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1. THE STATE OF VEHICLE GHG EMISSION AND FUEL ECONOMY
REGULATIONS AROUND THE WORLD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.1 JAPAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.2 THE EUROPEAN UNION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3 CHINA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.4 CANADA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.5 CALIFORNIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.6 THE UNITED STATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.7 SOUTH KOREA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.8 OTHER REGIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2 COMPARING VEHICLE STANDARDS AROUND THE WORLD . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.1 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL GHG EMISSION
AND FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.2 COMPARISON OF PASSENGER VEHICLE STANDARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY FOR ADJUSTING STANDARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
 5 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

Figures
Figure ES-1. Actual and Projected GHG Emissions for
New Passenger Vehicles by Country, 2002-2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Figure ES-2. Actual and Projected Fuel Economy for
New Vehicles by Country, 2002 to 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Figure 1. New (2015) Japanese Standards Compared to Previous (2010) Standards. . . 11
Figure 2. New Versus Old Japanese Vehicle Emission Test Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 3. Average CO2 Emission Rates (g/km) by Automakers, EU Market, 2006 . . . . . . 13
Figure 4. California Motor Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 5. Actual and Projected GHG Emissions for
New Passenger Vehicles by Country, 2002-2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Figure 6. Actual and Projected Fuel Economy for
New Vehicles by Country, 2002 to 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Figure 7. GHG Emission Reduction Associated
with the Most Recent Regulations By Country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Figure A-1. Study Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Figure A-2. Modeled Fuel Economy, CAFE-JC08 Multiplier,
and CAFE Adjusted 2015 Japanese Fuel Economy Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Figure A-3. CAFE Adjusted Projected New Vehicle
Average Fuel Economy in Japan, 2005-2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Tables
Table 1. Estimates of U.S. Light-Duty Truck Fuel Economy Targets
and Projected Percentage Gains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Table 2. Number of Registered Passenger Vehicles (by engine size)
and Fleet Average Fuel Economy Levels in S. Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Table 3. Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards Around the World . . . . . . . . . . 22
Table A-1. Important Unit Conversions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Table A-2. Summary of International Test Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Table A-3. Simulation Results for Gasoline Vehicle
Fuel Economy Ratings Under Various Test Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Table A-4. Driving Test Cycle Multiplier Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
6 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update
Governments around the world are currently
grappling with two distinct but interconnected
issues — how to reduce emissions of climate-
changing greenhouse gases (GHG) and how to
reduce dependence on finite, and often import-
ed, supplies of petroleum.
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CO2 EQUIVALENT G/KM-CONVERTED TO NEDC TEST CYCLE

AUSTRALIA
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S. KOREA CALIFORNIA

180

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100
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
FIGURE ES-1. Actual and Projected GHG Emissions for New Passenger Vehicles by Country, 2002-2018.

Note: Solid lines denote actual performance or projected performance due to adopted regulations; dotted lines denote proposed standards; Values normalized to
NEDC test cycle in grams of CO2-equivalent per km.

[1] For Canada, the program includes in-use vehicles. The resulting uncertainty on new vehicle fuel economy was not quantified.
 9 Executive Summary

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20
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
FIGURE ES-2. Actual and Projected Fuel Economy for New Passenger Vehicles by Country, 2002-2018.

[1] The relative stringency of Europe’s CO2-based standards is enhanced under a fuel economy standard because diesel vehicles achieve a boost in fuel
economy ratings due to the higher energy content of diesel fuel.

[2] For Canada, the program includes in-use vehicles. The resulting uncertainty of this impact on new vehicle emissions was not quantified.

[3] Shaded area under the California trend line represents the uncertain amount of non-fuel economy related GHG reductions (N2O, CH4, HFCs, and upstream
emissions related to fuel production) that manufacturers will generate from measures such as low-leak, high efficiency air conditioners, alternative fuel vehicles,
and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
10 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update
1. THE STATE OF VEHICLE
GHG EMISSION AND FUEL
ECONOMY REGULATIONS
AROUND THE WORLD
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VEHICLE WEIGHT (KG)
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FIGURE 2. New Versus Old Japanese Vehicle Emission Test Cycles
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AUTOMAKERS IN THE EU MARKET, 2006

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FORD 161
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14 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update
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TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS (1,000 TONS CO2 EQUIVALENT PER DAY)
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0
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FIGURE 4. California Motor Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections (CARB 2004)
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TABLE 1. Estimates of U.S. Light-Duty Truck Fuel Economy Targets and Projected Percentage Gains

FUEL ECONOMY TARGETS (MILES PER GALLON) PERCENTAGE GAINS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008-2011

General Motors 21.9 22.6 22.9 23.2 5.94%

Isuzu 22.2 22.9 23.2 23.4 5.41%
Toyota 22.6 23.0 23.2 23.8 5.31%
Nissan 22.3 23.3 23.7 23.9 7.17%
Ford 22.7 23.2 23.8 23.9 5.29%
Volkswagen 23.1 23.7 24.0 24.2 4.76%
Porsche 23.0 23.7 24.0 24.2 5.22%
Daimler Chrysler 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.3 4.74%
Honda 23.3 24.0 24.4 24.6 5.58%
Hyundai 23.9 25.0 25.0 25.4 6.28%
BMW 24.5 25.1 25.5 25.8 5.31%
Subaru 25.4 26.4 26.3 26.8 5.51%
Mitsubishi 25.1 25.8 26.3 27.0 7.57%
Suzuki 25.5 26.3 26.6 27.1 6.27%
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Department of Transportation, 2006
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1.8 OTHER REGIONS
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TABLE 2. Number of Registered Passenger Vehicles (current and projected) by Engine Size and Fleet Average
Fuel Economy Levels in South Korea

CATEGORY BY NUMBER OF VEHICLES REGISTERED

ENGINE SIZE 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1,500 cc 5,651,382 5,832,221 6,043,342 6,286,954 6,509,959 6,724,541 6,907,027
r 1,500 cc 4,744,232 5,032,690 5,322,161 5,608,959 5,901,817 6,180,446 6,450,052
SHARE
1,500 cc 54.4% 53.7% 53.2% 52.8% 52.4% 52.1% 51.7%
r 1,500 cc 45.6% 46.3% 46.8% 47.2% 47.6% 47.9% 48.3%
FLEET AVERAGE FUEL ECONOMY
30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6
Source: Youngil Jeong, Center for Environmentally Friendly Vehicles, 2007
21 Comparing Vehicle Standards Around The World
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2.1 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL
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22 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

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TABLE 3. Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards Around the World

COUNTRY/ TARGETED TEST

STANDARD MEASURE STRUCTURE IMPLEMENTATION
REGION FLEET CYCLE

Japan Fuel km/l Weight-based New JC08 Mandatory

European Union* CO2 g/km Single standard New NEDC Voluntary

China Fuel l/100-km Weight-based New NEDC Mandatory

GHG
5.3 Mt Vehicle class- In-use
Canada* (CO2, CH4, U.S. CAFE Voluntary
reduction based and new
N2O, HFCs)
GHG
Vehicle class-
California (CO2, CH4, g/mile New U.S. CAFE Mandatory
based
N2O, HFCs)
Single standard
for cars and size-
United States Fuel mpg New U.S. CAFE Mandatory
based standards
for light trucks
Australia Fuel l/100-km Single standard New NEDC Voluntary

U.S. EPA
South Korea Fuel km/l Engine size-based New Mandatory
City
Taiwan, China Fuel km/l Engine size-based New U.S. CAFE Mandatory
*Europe and Canada are shifting to mandatory regulatory programs.
23 Comparing Vehicle Standards Around The World

2.2 COMPARISON OF PASSEN- f^m^kZ]cnlm^]mhma^>nkhi^ZgG>=<m^lm

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280 US
EU
260 JAPAN
CO2 EQUIVALENT G/KM-CONVERTED TO NEDC TEST CYCLE

AUSTRALIA
UNITED
240 STATES CANADA
CHINA
220 CALIFORNIA
CANADA 1
AUSTRALIA S. KOREA
200
S. KOREA CALIFORNIA

180
CHINA
160
EUROPE
140
JAPAN
120

100
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
FIGURE 5. Actual and Projected GHG Emissions for New Passenger Vehicles by Country, 2002-2018.

Note: Solid lines denote actual performance or projected performance due to adopted regulations; dotted lines denote proposed standards; Values normalized to
NEDC test cycle in grams of CO2-equivalent per km.

[1] For Canada, the program includes in-use vehicles. The resulting uncertainty on new vehicle fuel economy was not quantified.
24 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

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MPG-CONVERTED TO CAFE TEST CYCLE

CANADA
CHINA
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S. KOREA
CHINA AUSTRALIA
35
CALIFORNIA3
S. KOREA
30
CANADA 2
UNITED STATES
25

20
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
FIGURE 6. Actual and Projected Fuel Economy for New Passenger Vehicles by Country, 2002-2018.

[1] The relative stringency of Europe’s CO2-based standards is enhanced under a fuel economy standard because diesel vehicles achieve a boost in
fuel economy ratings due to the higher energy content of diesel fuel.

[2] For Canada, the program includes in-use vehicles. The resulting uncertainty of this impact on new vehicle emissions was not quantified.

[3] Shaded area under the California trend line represents the uncertain amount of non-fuel economy related GHG reductions (N2O, CH4, HFCs, and
upstream emissions related to fuel production) that manufacturers will generate from measures such as low-leak, high efficiency air conditioners,
alternative fuel vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
25 Comparing Vehicle Standards Around The World
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26 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

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300
273

244 249
250
236
GRAMS CO2 EQ PER KM

211
200 193
180
185
176 178
153 168
150 160

125 130
100

50

0
JAPAN EU CHINA AUSTRALIA CANADA CALIFORNIA UNITED STATES
2004-2015 IN PLACE: 1998-2006 2005-2009 2002-2010 2000-2010 2009-2016 2008-2011
PROPOSED: 2007-2012

FIGURE 7. GHG Emission Reduction Associated with the Most Recent Regulations By Country

Note: Shaded bars denote in-place regulations; unshaded bars denote proposed regulations. Emissions data for Figure 7 are measured in grams
CO2-equivalent per kilometer under the NEDC test cycle. California and Canada’s programs include reductions in non-tailpipe and non- CO2 emissions.
27 Findings and Conclusions

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28 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY FOR
ADJUSTING STANDARDS
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Unadjusted Unadjusted Fuel
GHG Standard Economy Standard
Test cycle
multiplier
NEDC Adjusted CAFE Adjusted Fuel
GHG Standard Economy Standard
Figure 5 Figure 6
FIGURE A-1. Study Methodology
29 Appendix: Methodology for Adjusting Standards

TABLE A-1. Important Unit Conversions

METRIC STANDARD X STANDARD Y CONVERSION

km/L mpg Y = X * 2.35
Fuel economy L/100 km mpg Y = 235.2/X
CO2 g/km mpg* Y = 5469/X
km/L CO2 g/km Y = 2325/X
GHG standard L/100 km CO2 g/km Y = X * 23.2
mpg CO2 g/km Y = 5469/X
* For diesel vehicles, Y = 6424/X was used to reflect the higher carbon content of diesel fuel.

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TABLE A-2. Summary of International Test Cycles

LENGTH AVERAGE SPEED MAX SPEED MAX ACCELERATION

CYCLE
(SECONDS) (MPH) (MPH) (MPH/S)
EPA Highway 766 48.2 59.9 3.3
EPA City 1375 19.5 56.7 3.3
CAFE ------- 32.4* 59.9 3.3
NEDC 1181 20.9 74.6 2.4
JC08 1204 15.2 50.7 3.8
* Based on 45/55 CAFE highway/city weighting, not test cycle length.
30 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update
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31 Appendix: Methodology for Adjusting Standards

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TABLE A-3. Simulation Results for Gasoline Vehicle Fuel Economy Ratings Under Various Test Cycles

TEST CYCLE FE (MPG) TEST CYCLE MULTIPLIER

TYPE MAKE MODEL NEDC- CAFE- CAFE-
NEDC CAFE JC08
JCO8 JC08 NEDC
Ford Focus 26.0 29.8 22.9 1.14 1.30 1.15
Toyota Corolla 32.4 34.8 27.6 1.17 1.26 1.08
Toyota Yaris 40.6 42.2 36.1 1.12 1.17 1.04
Small Car Honda Fit 36.0 40.1 31.8 1.13 1.26 1.11
Hyundai Accent 35.1 39.0 32.1 1.09 1.21 1.11
Kia Rio 35.4 39.1 32.2 1.10 1.21 1.10
Daewoo Aveo 31.2 35.5 26.1 1.19 1.36 1.14
Large Car Toyota Camry 24.7 26.6 21.5 1.15 1.24 1.08
Minivan Dodge Grand Caravan 20.5 23.9 17.2 1.19 1.39 1.17
SUV Ford Explorer 17.6 20.2 14.6 1.20 1.38 1.15
Pickup Chevrolet Silverado 15.9 18.8 13.5 1.18 1.39 1.18
Crossover Saturn Vue 23.0 26.3 19.8 1.16 1.33 1.14
Simple Average 1.15 1.29 1.12
32 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update

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1.5 2004 2015 2015

ACTUAL STANDARD STANDARD
(KM/L) (KM/L) (MPG)
1.4 55
CAFE-JC08 MULTIPLIER

1.3 51

1.2 47
y = -0.2038Ln(x) + 1.7618
R2 = 0.7458
1.1 43

1.0 40

0.9
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
FUEL ECONOMY (KM/L)
FIGURE A-2. Modeled Fuel Economy, CAFE-JC08 Multiplier, and CAFE Adjusted 2015 Japanese Fuel Economy
Standard
33 Appendix: Methodology for Adjusting Standards

TABLE A-4. Driving Test Cycle Multiplier Equations

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MULTIPLIER CORRELATION
CONVERSION
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1.7618
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NEDC-JC08 0.5607
1.3464
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0.0816 x Ln(CAFE) +
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0.6243
0.1021 x Ln(NEDC) + k^ik^l^gmlma^_n^e^\hghfrZ]cnlm^]r^Zk
CAFE-NEDC 0.5800
0.5787
[rr^Zknlbg`ma^eh`k^eZmbhglabi]^kbo^]bg
Units: JC08 = km/L; CAFE =mpg; NEDC = g/km. The multiplier itself is
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60
BEST FIT
MOST FE
LEAST FE
55
FUEL ECONOMY (CAFE - MPG)

1.39
50

1.19
1.20
45
1.21
1.22
1.23 1.17
40

35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FIGURE A-3. CAFE Adjusted Projected New Vehicle Average Fuel Economy in Japan, 2005-2015

* Boxed numbers denote test cycle multiplier.

34 Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update
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ENDNOTES
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