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KITTIPONG SRISANSANEE, PH.D. Graduate School of Computer & Engineering Management Assumption University Huamark, Bangkok 10240 Phone: 300-4543 Ext. 1324 Email: cemkss@au.ac.th
Abstract: Decision making under risk and decision making under uncertainty are applied to cellular manufacturing specifically in machine cell formation step. The application works with part demand which can be either expressed in a probability distribution (probabilistic production volume) or can not expressed in probability distribution, where only the different possible values for volume that can occur are known (uncertain production volume). Decision making under risk is used to help the designer select the best cell arrangement in case of probabilistic production volume whereas decision making under uncertainty is used to help the designer select the best cell arrangement in case of uncertain production volume. The objective of the design methodology has been to maximize the profit, imposed by the resource capacities constraints. Keywords: Decision Theory, Cellular Manufacturing, Group Technology, and Machine Cell Formation.
1. INTRODUCTION
The philosophy of group technology(GT) is to identify similar parts and group them together in families to take advantage of their similarities in design and manufacturing. This technique is applied to cellular manufacturing where dissimilar machines are grouped together into cells to produce a family of parts. This process is also called machine cell formation. The objective of this paper is to apply decision theory with cellular manufacturing specifically in machine cell formation step. The methodology will address the dynamic nature of the production environment which can be divided into two situations--a probabilistic production volume and an uncertain production volume. The probabilistic production volume refers to the nature of product volume which is known and can be expressed in a probabilistic distribution. The uncertain production volume, on the other hand, refers to the nature of production volume which can not be expressed in a probabilistic distribution because the distribution of demand is unknown. In this situation, only the different values for volume that can occur are known (i.e., the likelihood of any particular occurrence is unknown). The expected result of this design methodology is a preliminary cellular system design which performs well and more realistically models the real demand situation in manufacturing compared to the constant demand assumption methods currently in use.
2.5 PAYOFFS
Payoffs are estimates of the quantitative results associated with each action, conditional upon the outcome of a particular state of nature.
2.6 PRINCIPLES FOR DECISIONS UNDER RISK 2.6.1 THE PRINCIPLE OF EXPECTATION
An alternative is selected if it has minimum expected cost (or maximum expected profit).
3.1 PRINCIPLES FOR DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY 3.1.1 THE MIMIMAX (OR MAXIMIN) PRINCIPLE
This principle is based on the view that the worst possible outcome will occur. The alternative that minimizes the maximum cost or maximizes the minimum profit is selected.
SCi total skipping cost in cell i change in forward flow intra-cell cost change in inter-cell cost change in skipping cost change in backward flow intra-cell (backtracking) cost net increase in total materials flow cost if cell e is combined with cell k to form a new cell
Algorithm Step 0. nc = nm (initially each machine is considered as one cell). Let e = 1. Step 1a. Step 1b. Let k = e+1. Find the total skipping costs in the combined cell ek, and individual cells e and k. IN each cell, count the number of skips for part 1 to np,. Then calculate the change in overall skipping cost, S = Scek - (Sce + Sck). Step 1c. Let B = H =M = 0. Consider all possible pairs of machines of which one machine belongs to cell e and the other belongs to cell k. According to the forward flow direction of the pair of machines, let the earlier machine index by m1 and the later machine index be m2, i.e., fm1 < fm2. for i = 1 to np; do while Nim1 > 0 and Nim2 > 0, if (Nim1 - Nim2) = 1 B = B+qiii and M = M - qi i if (Nim1 - Nim2) = -1 H = H+qii and M = M - qi i
Consider the next pair of machines. If all pairs have considered, go to Step 1d. Step 1d. rek = S + H + M + B k = k+1; if k > nc, go to Step 2, else go to Step 1b. Step 2. Step 3. e = e+1; if e = nc, go to Step 3, else go to Step 1a. Find the pair of cells, x and y, which correspond to most negative rek value, i.e., rxy = Min [rek]; if rxy > 0, stopping criterion is reached, go to Step 5, else go to Step 4. Step 4. Combine cells x and y. nc = nc-1, e = 1, if nc = 1, go to Step 5. else go to Step 1a to start the next iteration. Step 5. Step 6. Allocate each part of the cell in which it has the maximum number of operations. Stop.
5. PROBLEM FORMATION
The problem is defined in term of the design objective, system parameters, and system constraints. The following information is assumed available. 1. The set of machines, M={M1,...,Mnm} and their capacities, CMj, j = 1,..,nm 2. The set of all parts, P = {P1,...,Pnp}. 3. Parts demand which different values for part volume that can occur are known. 4. The processing sequence and processing time of corresponding machine for each part. 5. The profit for producing each part. 6. The transportation cost ($/unit)(both intracell and intercell) and skipping cost ($/unit/skip) for each part.
(H q
i= 1 i i
np
+ B i q i i + M i q ii )
where i qi Hiqii Hi i Biqii Bi i Miqii Mi i is part number is number of units of part i is forward intra-cell material handling cost for part i is number of forward intra-cell movement for part i is intra-cell material handling cost for part i ($/unit) is backtracking cost for part i is number of backtracks for part i is backtracking cost multiplier is inter-cell material handling cost for part i is number of inter-cell movement for part i is inter-cell material handling cost for part i ($/unit)
( SC )q
i =1 m=1 im
np
nc
where I m Scim qi = part number = cell number = number of machine skip for part i in cell m = skipping cost ($/unit/skip) = number of units of part I
1 q1 +...+ np q np
q
i =1 i
np
ij
CM j , j = 1,..., nm
0 qi d i , i = 1,..., np
where The objective function (1q1+,...,+npqnp )is the total profit i, i = 1,..,np is the unit profit of producing part i qi, i = 1,...,np is the feasible volume for part i ij is the processing time of part i on machine j di, i = 1,...,np is the demand for part i
3. For every feasible part volume, one machine cell arrangement is designed. In this paper, a sequence-based materials flow procedure developed by Verma and Ding, 1995 is used. 4. For every machine cell arrangement, 4.1 calculate total material flow cost including the cost components of inter-cell movement, forward intra-cell movement, backtracking, and skipping for every feasible part volume. 4.2 calculate total profit which can be defined as total profit = profit (from 2) - total material flow cost(from 4.1) 5. Build a profit decision matrix. - States of natures are all feasible part volume combination found in step 2. - Probabilities of the States of Natures are the joint probabilities found from step 1. - Action or decisions are all cell arrangements found from step 3. Payoffs can be calculated by - Payoffs are the profit of all feasible part volume correspondent to each cell arrangement found from step 4.2 6. Apply the principle for decisions under risk to select cell arrangement.
8. CONCLUSION
In this paper, decision theory applied to cellular manufacturing in machine cell formation step was presented. The application works with part demand which can be either expressed in a probability distribution or can not expressed in probability distribution, where only the different possible values for volume that can occur are known. The objective of the design methodology has been to maximize the profit, imposed by the resource capacities constraints.
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