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09
Source : Bloomberg
The British pound earlier plunged to a 23-years low against the dollar ($1.3722 this morning)
,undermined by government data confirming the U.K. economy is felling into a deep and lasting
recession in the last three months of 2008 The GDP contracted 1.5 % marking the steepest quarterly
drop since 1980..
The Chinese Year of the Ox begins. China's markets are closed all week. Hong Kong's reopen Thursday
Presidential elections in Somali
Nasa is scheduled to launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory.
Paris hosts its spring-summer 2009 haute couture collections (to January 29).
12th African Union summit (to February 3)
Meeting between the United Nations secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon and Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodriguez
Zapatero on tackling global hunger in Madrid (to January 27)
"! ! #!
Today ,watch in the United-Sates the release of the existing home sales for December due at 16.00 am which are expected to decrease
as the credit crunch and the rise of unemployment are damping the household purchase power ./JB
ate
ECONOMY
FRANCE : THE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDICATOR AND THE PRODUCTION OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY WEAK IN JANUARY
France which already had structural issues ( lake of competitiveness, weak innovation, wrong sector and geographic specialization )
before the financial turmoil is particularly hit by the recession and will very soon have to face a deflation situation. Consumption which was
resisting is felling down, companies are cutting investments and unemployment is rising. France is indeed facing its worst recession since
the second world war. As a consequence the business confidence indicator reached an historical low in January at 73 for the second
month in a row, and the production outlook reached as well an historical low at -75 ( prior -73).
EURO AREA: THE PMI MANUFACTURING AND THE PMI SERVICE ARE STILL VERY WEAK IN JANUARY
The Euro area which is not an optimal monetary zone is much more affected by the global financial and economic crisis than the United
States. Indeed there is no European budget to coordinate stimulus plans of the members. The Euro zone is facing its worst recession
since 1993 and most of the economic indicators are in the red especially unemployment which is rising since August 2008 to reach
7.80%in November. As recession curbed demand for exports and cut spending, Europe’s manufacturing and service industries contracted
for an eight month in January at 38.5 compared with 38.2 in December which was the lowest reading since the survey began in 1998. PMI
manufacturing and PMI services remains very weak at respectively 34.5 and 42.5 in January ( advanced indicator).
UNITED - KINGDOM : GDP IS PLUNGING AT THE FOURTH QUARTER BUT RETAIL SALES ARE INCREASING IN DECEMBER
United - Kingdom is particularly affected by the financial turmoil as 50 % of its GDP is coming from financial business and all activities
related to it ( insurance, construction …). As a matter of fact the U.K. growth domestic product plunged of 1.8% from a year ago and of
1.5% at the fourth quarter. The breakdown of the output revealed how the recession has affected almost the entire economy . Indeed only
the agricultural sector manage a rise in output ( 0.1%) , on the other hand service sector fell by 1.0% as expected but surprisingly industrial
production plunged by 4 %. Meanwhile December’s data for retail sales increased by 1.6%,+3.9% YoY( prior 0.3%,+1.3% YoY) suggesting
that the high street had no major role in the slowdown./JB
The US INDEX futures were down this morning (7.45 GMT) : Dow Jones –0.94 %, S&P 500 –1.17 %,
Nasdaq –1.16 %/ JFV
US Treasury prices prices fell pushing the 10-year yields up the most since June as investors reacted to concerns that
a massive government stimulus would balloon the national debt. The report that showed the British economy
contracted by 1.5% in the final three months of 2008, added to negative economic news that tends to increase the
."/01
appeal of the relative safety of government debt.
)*+,'-
(Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.80 %, +8bps, 5-year rate at 1.62 %, +2 bps, 10-year rate at 2.61 %, +1bps, 30-year
rate at 3.31 %, +5 bps). The 10-year Treasury spread US/Europe is at 63 bps this morning /LC
Japan’s markets fell 63.11 or 0.81 % to close at 7,682.14 in Tokyo. The market was led down by builders on
earning concern. On the other hand the Yen remains at a high level against the USD ( USD/JPY : 88.87) and against
the EURO, penalizing exporters and discouraging investors on a market already very concern on companies result
expectations this week and next week. Heavy industry sector went down(Fanuc-2.66%,Daikin-2.40%,IHI-1.85%).
-&)0 $%&'( Component sector went down (CSK Holdings -8.63%,Toshiba-4.58%,Advantest-4.09%, Nec-3.20%), electronic
)*+,'- sector went down(Canon-3.35%,Sony-3.05%,Olympus-2.75%), financials went down (Credit Saison -5.39%,
Sumitomo-4.06%,Mitsubishi-3.38%) ,car sector went down(Nissan-3.16%,Suzuki-2.28%,Denso-2.40%)while
drugmakers gained on speculation buyouts will increase after Pfizer Inc. made a takeover bid for Wyeth ( Shin-Etsu
Chemical +0.77%, Astellas+0.30%, Tadekal+0.24%) and oil sector went up as the Barrel is going up (
INPEX+1.39%)./JB
Oil prices rebounded on Friday and posted a weekly gain of 9% or almost $4. The WTI jumped 7.57 % at $45.47 while
the crude oil for March delivery rose $2.80 or +6.41 % at $46.47 a barrel. Meanwhile the Brent surged $3.01 or 6.95 %
&2 at $46.38 a barrel. A lot of investors run out of the Treasuries and moved into the commodities as a safe heaven. The
future for March delivery was down 1.51 % this morning (7.25 GMT) at $45.77 a barrel. / LC
The dollar continued to benefit of more gloomy economic data lately released in the United -States as investors flight
for safety, same economic logic for the Yen both currencies are higher against the major and most emerging
currencies .benefiting from the weak economic environment . The Euro retreated 0.20% at 1.2975 and today by 0.45%
/*,3 at 1.2916,the USD retreated versus the Yen -0.19% at 88.75 but gained today +0.08% at 88.82. On the other hand the
British pound earlier plunged to a 23-years low against the dollar ,undermined by government data confirming the
U.K. economy is felling into a deep and lasting recession in the last three months of 2008. /JB
DOWN
DOWN
UP
UP
UP
NOKIA OYJ 2,15 AXA SA -6,67 JPMORGAN CHASE &5,11
CO -3,15 CORP
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES 3,18
MITSUBISHI CHEMICAL HOLDINGSFUJIKURA LTD -8,76
BAYER AG 2,07 -6,03
SOCIETE GENERALE 4,58 GROUP
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL 3M CO -2,15 3,09INC
NIPPON PAPER GROUP -8,63
CSK HOLDINGS CORP
TOTAL SA 1,99 -4,61 MERCK & CO. INC. 2,73
DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED COCA-COLA CO/THE-2,13 OJI PAPER CO LTD 2,98 MEIDENSHA CORP -8,13
NOMURA is expected to post a net loss of 300 bn yen ($3.38 bn) in October-December as market turmoil hit its trading
business (Nikkei)
TOYOTA will cut production by 20% this year (The Tokyo Shimbun)
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