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26 Jan.

09

Japan : The all industrial activity index plunged in November


France : The business confidence indicator and the production outlook remains very weak in
January
Euro area: The PMI manufacturing and the PMI service are still very weak in January

Stocks were mixed on Friday

British Pound versus US Dollar


since 1990

Source : Bloomberg
The British pound earlier plunged to a 23-years low against the dollar ($1.3722 this morning)
,undermined by government data confirming the U.K. economy is felling into a deep and lasting
recession in the last three months of 2008 The GDP contracted 1.5 % marking the steepest quarterly
drop since 1980..

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd


DJIA 8077,6 -1,61% -7,96% EUR/USD 1,2912 -1,21% -7,60%
S&P 500 832,0 -1,37% -7,89% EUR/JPY 114,36 3,51% -9,78%
Nasdaq 1477,3 -2,28% -6,33% USD/JPY 88,58 2,37% -2,37%
CAC 40 2849,1 -5,56% -11,46% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4178,9 -4,29% -13,12% Brent $/b 46,2 6,16% 10,56%
Eurostoxx 50 2147,9 -5,86% -12,25% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 182,5 -5,41% -8,00% Gold $/oz 897,3 7,38% 1,76%
FTSE 100 4052,5 -2,23% -8,61% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7682,1 -5,89% -13,29% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,12
Shanghai Comp CLOSED 9,33% Overnight 0,20 1,00 0,12
Sensex (India) CLOSED -10,09% 3 Months 0,10 1,17 0,24
MICEX (Russia) 559,5 -9,04% -9,69% 10 Years** 2,61 3,25 1,23
Bovespa (Brasil) 38132,4 -3,07% 1,55% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
!

The Chinese Year of the Ox begins. China's markets are closed all week. Hong Kong's reopen Thursday
Presidential elections in Somali
Nasa is scheduled to launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory.
Paris hosts its spring-summer 2009 haute couture collections (to January 29).
12th African Union summit (to February 3)
Meeting between the United Nations secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon and Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodriguez
Zapatero on tackling global hunger in Madrid (to January 27)

Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous


10.30 am United States BBA loans for house purchase December 17 773
04.00 pm United States Conference Board U.S leading index December -0,2% -0,4%
04.00 pm United States Existing home sales December 4,40 millions 4,49 millions
04.00 pm United States Existing home sales MoM December -2,0% MoM -8,6% MoM
04.30 pm United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing activity December -60,6%

"! ! #!

Results Obama veut un vote sur la relance avant le 16 février, Le


Philips / Amgen (AMC) / Texas Instrument (AMC) / Figaro économie, p.22
Haliburton / McDo (BMO) / Caterpillar (12.30 GMT) La livre, victime collatérale de la crise en Grande
Bretagne, Les Echos, p 7 et 30
Dividend
ThyssenKrupp (€1.30) / Acciona €1.07 Un combat de coq entre Washington et Pékin, La
Tribune,. p3
U.K economy sputters, The Wall Street Journal, p 2
Warning from ECB on easing measures, Financial
Times, p 11

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Economic data preview

Today ,watch in the United-Sates the release of the existing home sales for December due at 16.00 am which are expected to decrease
as the credit crunch and the rise of unemployment are damping the household purchase power ./JB

ate

ECONOMY

JAPAN : THE ALL INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY INDEX PLUNGED IN NOVEMBER


Japanese growth being mainly based on its exportations the country is significantly affected by the global economic slowdown cutting the
demand for Japanese goods abroad . The strong Yen is as well impacting negatively the exportations . Japan is going a sharp recession
as well as a deflation situation . In response to the weak demand, companies are cutting investments and global industrial activity is hit
.Indeed the all industrial activity index dropped from -0.4% in October to -2.3% in November underlining the fact that recession is
deepening .

FRANCE : THE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDICATOR AND THE PRODUCTION OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY WEAK IN JANUARY
France which already had structural issues ( lake of competitiveness, weak innovation, wrong sector and geographic specialization )
before the financial turmoil is particularly hit by the recession and will very soon have to face a deflation situation. Consumption which was
resisting is felling down, companies are cutting investments and unemployment is rising. France is indeed facing its worst recession since
the second world war. As a consequence the business confidence indicator reached an historical low in January at 73 for the second
month in a row, and the production outlook reached as well an historical low at -75 ( prior -73).

ITALY: RETAIL SALES ARE FELLING DOWN IN NOVEMBER


Like France Italian economy was even before the financial turmoil facing big structural issues ( see above). Italy is now facing its fourth
recession since 2001 and the country is ranked at the last position of the Euro area economically speaking. All economic indicators are in
the red and Italy is strongly hit by the global slowdown of the demand ( domestic and international). Logically retail sales slumped of 3.0%
from a year ago and decrease of 0.2% in November ( prior-0.4%) since last month.

EURO AREA: THE PMI MANUFACTURING AND THE PMI SERVICE ARE STILL VERY WEAK IN JANUARY
The Euro area which is not an optimal monetary zone is much more affected by the global financial and economic crisis than the United
States. Indeed there is no European budget to coordinate stimulus plans of the members. The Euro zone is facing its worst recession
since 1993 and most of the economic indicators are in the red especially unemployment which is rising since August 2008 to reach
7.80%in November. As recession curbed demand for exports and cut spending, Europe’s manufacturing and service industries contracted
for an eight month in January at 38.5 compared with 38.2 in December which was the lowest reading since the survey began in 1998. PMI
manufacturing and PMI services remains very weak at respectively 34.5 and 42.5 in January ( advanced indicator).

UNITED - KINGDOM : GDP IS PLUNGING AT THE FOURTH QUARTER BUT RETAIL SALES ARE INCREASING IN DECEMBER
United - Kingdom is particularly affected by the financial turmoil as 50 % of its GDP is coming from financial business and all activities
related to it ( insurance, construction …). As a matter of fact the U.K. growth domestic product plunged of 1.8% from a year ago and of
1.5% at the fourth quarter. The breakdown of the output revealed how the recession has affected almost the entire economy . Indeed only
the agricultural sector manage a rise in output ( 0.1%) , on the other hand service sector fell by 1.0% as expected but surprisingly industrial
production plunged by 4 %. Meanwhile December’s data for retail sales increased by 1.6%,+3.9% YoY( prior 0.3%,+1.3% YoY) suggesting
that the high street had no major role in the slowdown./JB

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23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -3-
www.global-equities.com
Stocks were mixed on Friday
Stocks initially took a hit on Friday as traders fretted over the latest batch of corporate results, including a steep drop
from blue chip General Electric (-10.75 % after a 44% drop in Q4 net profit). That sentiment turned in afternoon
trading as bargain hunters went shopping. However, the mini rally wasn't enough to put every index in the black.
The DJIA lost 45 pts to 8077 (-0.55 %). The Nasdaq went positive and gained 11 (+0.80 %) to 1477 and the S&P 500
increased 4 at 831 (+0.53 %). Industrials and defence followed the move: 3M –2.15 %, United Technologies -3.15 %,
Caterpillar -4.22 %, Boeing –0.66 %, Lockheed Martin –4.82 %, Raytheon –2.25 %, General Dynamics –1.04 %.
With the exception of American Express (-0.37 %), banks were on a sharp upside: JP Morgan +5.11 %, Bank of
America +9.28 %, Citigroup +11.58 %, Goldman Sachs +5.46 %, Morgan Stanley +6.43 %, such as home builders:
DR Horton +5.28 %, KB Home +1.51 %, Lennar +4.43 %. Other financials were mixed: Blackrock +4.27 %, Visa
+0.32 %, ManuLife +6.54 %, MetLife +4.43 %, but MasterCard –2.64 %, State Street –7.49 %, Berkshire Hathaway
–2.87 %. Techs were on the upside (Cisco +3.38 %, Motorola +3.84 %, Dell +1.60 %, SanDisk +2.44 %) such as
internet: Amazon +1.38 %, eBay +2.83 %, Yahoo! +0.35 %. Google (+5.93%) is barely feeling the effects of the
recession. The firm beat Q4 estimates on an 18% increase in revenue. Excluding one-time charges, Google posted a
profit of $5.10 a share, 15 cents above consensus estimates. Still, the firm took on fewer new employees in the last
$%&'( quarter, a sign of slower growth during the downturn. Semiconductors rose as well: Texas Instruments +4.39 %,
Broadcom +5.31 %, Micron Technology +9.54 %, Xilinx +3.43 %, AMD +2.48 %, National Semiconductor +7.09
)*+,'-
%. Telcos were on the upside as well: Sprint +3.36 %, AT&T +2.39 %, Verizon +0.93 %, QWest +2.74 %. Oil
companies were mixed (ExxonMobil –0.24 %, Chevron +1.24 %, ConocoPhilips +0.19 %) while oil services
(Schlumberger +10.25 %, Baker Hughes +5.20 %, Halliburton +8.31 %) and refiners (Valero +5.54 %, Sunoco
+6.02 %) surged. Basic resources and gold mines were upbeat as well: US Steel +2.63 %, Alcoa +0.97 %, Barrick
Gold +11.27 %, GoldCorp +10.10 %, Newmont Mining +8.66 %. With the exception of Nike (+0.11 %), consumer
stocks were downbeat: Avon –6.06 %, Estee Lauder –4.78 %, Procter & Gamble -1.69 %, Altria –0.71 %, Mc
Donald’s –1.19 %. Retailers were mixed: Home Depot –1.14 %, Lowe’s –1.18 %, Wal Mart –1.06 %, Target –1.53
%, Costco –1.01 %, but Walgreen +0.49 %, Macy’s +2.77 %, Best Buy +1.51 %. Pharmaceuticals rose: Merck +2.73
%. Pfizer (+1.39%) is in talks to acquire rival drug giant Wyeth (+12.64%) in a deal that could be valued as high as
$60 billion. Pfizer, the world's largest drugmaker, is in need of new products. The firm's blockbuster cholesterol drug
Lipitor will lose its patent exclusivity in 2011.

The US INDEX futures were down this morning (7.45 GMT) : Dow Jones –0.94 %, S&P 500 –1.17 %,
Nasdaq –1.16 %/ JFV
US Treasury prices prices fell pushing the 10-year yields up the most since June as investors reacted to concerns that
a massive government stimulus would balloon the national debt. The report that showed the British economy
contracted by 1.5% in the final three months of 2008, added to negative economic news that tends to increase the
."/01
appeal of the relative safety of government debt.
)*+,'-
(Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.80 %, +8bps, 5-year rate at 1.62 %, +2 bps, 10-year rate at 2.61 %, +1bps, 30-year
rate at 3.31 %, +5 bps). The 10-year Treasury spread US/Europe is at 63 bps this morning /LC
Japan’s markets fell 63.11 or 0.81 % to close at 7,682.14 in Tokyo. The market was led down by builders on
earning concern. On the other hand the Yen remains at a high level against the USD ( USD/JPY : 88.87) and against
the EURO, penalizing exporters and discouraging investors on a market already very concern on companies result
expectations this week and next week. Heavy industry sector went down(Fanuc-2.66%,Daikin-2.40%,IHI-1.85%).
-&)0 $%&'( Component sector went down (CSK Holdings -8.63%,Toshiba-4.58%,Advantest-4.09%, Nec-3.20%), electronic
)*+,'- sector went down(Canon-3.35%,Sony-3.05%,Olympus-2.75%), financials went down (Credit Saison -5.39%,
Sumitomo-4.06%,Mitsubishi-3.38%) ,car sector went down(Nissan-3.16%,Suzuki-2.28%,Denso-2.40%)while
drugmakers gained on speculation buyouts will increase after Pfizer Inc. made a takeover bid for Wyeth ( Shin-Etsu
Chemical +0.77%, Astellas+0.30%, Tadekal+0.24%) and oil sector went up as the Barrel is going up (
INPEX+1.39%)./JB
Oil prices rebounded on Friday and posted a weekly gain of 9% or almost $4. The WTI jumped 7.57 % at $45.47 while
the crude oil for March delivery rose $2.80 or +6.41 % at $46.47 a barrel. Meanwhile the Brent surged $3.01 or 6.95 %
&2 at $46.38 a barrel. A lot of investors run out of the Treasuries and moved into the commodities as a safe heaven. The
future for March delivery was down 1.51 % this morning (7.25 GMT) at $45.77 a barrel. / LC
The dollar continued to benefit of more gloomy economic data lately released in the United -States as investors flight
for safety, same economic logic for the Yen both currencies are higher against the major and most emerging
currencies .benefiting from the weak economic environment . The Euro retreated 0.20% at 1.2975 and today by 0.45%
/*,3 at 1.2916,the USD retreated versus the Yen -0.19% at 88.75 but gained today +0.08% at 88.82. On the other hand the
British pound earlier plunged to a 23-years low against the dollar ,undermined by government data confirming the
U.K. economy is felling into a deep and lasting recession in the last three months of 2008. /JB

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www.global-equities.com
Europe America Asia
Indices 25/1/09 % Chg Indices 25/1/09 % Chg Indices 26/1/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50 2148 -0,57% DJIA 8078 -0,56% Nikkei 7682 -0,82%
DJ 600 182 -0,20% S&P 500 832 +0,54% Topix 768 -0,68%
FTSE 100 4052 +0,01% NASDAQ 1477 +0,81% Hong Kong CLOSED
DAX (XETRA) 4179 -0,96% TSX 8628 +1,67% Singapore CLOSED
CAC 40 2849 -0,71% Bolsa (Mexico) 19349 +0,22% South Korea CLOSED
AEX (Pays Bas) 234 -0,56% Bovespa (Br.) 38132 +0,63% Thailand 436 +0,53%
SMI (Suisse) 5307 -0,42% Merval (Argent.) 1067 +0,82% Indonesia CLOSED
S&P / MIB (Italie) 18222 -0,26% IPSA (Chili) 11882 +0,22% Taiwan CLOSED
IBEX 35 (Esp.) 8173 +0,17% IGBVL (Pérou) 6988 +1,56% China CLOSED
BVL (Portugal) 2076 +0,53% India CLOSED
Source : Bloomberg
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
E.ON AG 3,39 AEGON NV -8,04 CITIGROUP INC 11,58 -10,76
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 3,77
MITSUI OSK LINES LTD -11,38
NIPPON SHEET GLASS CO LT
GDF SUEZ 3,32 BNP PARIBAS -7,85 5,12
GENERAL MOTORS CORP CATERPILLAR INC -4,22 HEIWA REAL ESTATE3,45
CO LTD -9,91
SUMITOMO OSAKA CEMENT C
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
NOKIA OYJ 2,15 AXA SA -6,67 JPMORGAN CHASE &5,11
CO -3,15 CORP
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES 3,18
MITSUBISHI CHEMICAL HOLDINGSFUJIKURA LTD -8,76
BAYER AG 2,07 -6,03
SOCIETE GENERALE 4,58 GROUP
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL 3M CO -2,15 3,09INC
NIPPON PAPER GROUP -8,63
CSK HOLDINGS CORP
TOTAL SA 1,99 -4,61 MERCK & CO. INC. 2,73
DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED COCA-COLA CO/THE-2,13 OJI PAPER CO LTD 2,98 MEIDENSHA CORP -8,13

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4
PHILIPS : Q4 rev. €7.6bn (7.2bn e) / Ebita €141m due to €390m restructuring charges (230m e) / Div. €0.70, in line /
Q4 net loss€1.5b (1.2bn loss exp) / Stop share buyback until “further notice” to prioritize cash flow / Healthcare strong
in Q4 but will weaken in Q1
BARCLAYS doesn’t need more capital, takes £8bn writedown / Expects FY PTP to be well ahead of £5.3bn consensus /
Says “we have had a good start to 2009, we are well funded & profitable / Tier1 exceeds the minimum required by the
FSA
SANTANDER : EGM exp. today for approval to issue 177m new shares (2.2% of capital) to pay for its acquisition of
Sovereign Bancorp / Separately, is in talks with Japanese insurer Tokio Marine to buy the 50% it doesn't own in Brazilian
insurer Real Tokio Marine Vida e Previdencia (Expansion) / No value provided for that stake but Brazil represents 25%
of Santander's global insurance business…
SWISS LIFE doesn’t need to raise capital (Rolf Doerig, who will become chairman in May)
SOCIETE GEN & CREDIT AGRICOLE set up Asset Management units into a venture with €638bn in assets under
management / ACA will own 70% of the JV & SocGen 30% / New asset management business may list within 5 years /
Separately, SOCIETE GEN said it doesn’t immediately need capital and a govt plan to make additional funds available
to banks should provide more
NORWAYS BANKS : The govt will announce a new rescue plan on Feb. 9 to help banks raise capital and boost lending
(Fin Minister)
SCHNEIDER said it was confident of meeting its 2008 annual sales growth target despite a strong deterioration in global
biz in late 2008
UBIBANCA : 4Q NII €187.4m (€163m exp) / Net Profit €150m (€160m exp)
BANCO POPOLARE DI MILANO will post a profit this year and plans on giving a dividend to shareholders (General
Manager)
RBS is preparing to put up to £100 bn of loans into the government's insurance scheme (Sunday Times) / The details
are expected to be announced in the next 4 weeks
EADS : Looking to help European plane maker Airbus, the French government plans to inject €5 bn into banks with the
aim of financing airplane purchases (Reuters)
VEOLIA will restrain its growth in the coming months to focus on maintaining positive cash flow (CEO) / Veolia has "no
problem either of liquidity or financing" CEO said / He also confirmed the company's most recent 2008 profit guidance
SACYR : China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. are seeking financing in Asia to make a bid for its 20% stake in REPSOL
(Cinco Dias)…
PUBLICIS has been chosen by Carrefour to run its corporate and commercial communications in France and abroad
(€1bn)
TOTAL & ARAMCO want bidders for a new JV refinery to chop at least $1.2 bn from costs due to the global economic
downturn
BNP will issue €5.1bn prefered shares to French State / Says French state aid should take its tier 1 ratio to around
8% (Tier1 should be around 7.5% at Dec. 31) / Confirmed 2008 net profit of around €3bn / Q4 net loss of around €1.4bn
/ Q4 loss at CIB unit of around €2bn / Plans to take part in second stage of French state aid for banks / Will decide on
dividend on February 18
CARREFOUR's financial services arm is considering turning to Societe de Financement de l'Economie Francaise to get
credit at a good price (Les Echos) / Until now the main beneficiaries have been the banks of car makers…
SIEMENS is planning to cooperate with Russia's Atomenergoprom in the area of nuclear power (Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung)
GERMAN CARMAKERS : Unit car sales in Germany could break the 3 m mark, as the government's aid package may
have strongly stimulated sales (Tagesspiegel) / In December, the association had projected unit sales of 2.9 m cars in
2009
ENEL may finalize as early as Today €8bn of financing to enable it to take full control of Endesa (La Stampa)
CONTINENTAL : German states Lower Saxony & Bavaria are set to help Schaeffler & Continental with €1 bn in govt aid
(Handelsblatt)
FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE plans to increase the dividend for its current business year (Euro am Sonntag)
FIAT : UniCredit’s CEO said Fiat must be given funds to help it overcome the recession (Italian press)
BPI : 4Q net income €115.9m after it sold a stake in its Angolan division (€163m expected)
SWISS RE may face more writedowns on the high-risk portion of its investments (Finanz & Wirtschaft newspaper)

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company


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"
ING : Q4 underlying net € -3.3 bn (FY net € -1 bn after one-offs) / Q4 bking net €-1.3 bn / Q4 insurance net € -2bn /
Agreed with Dutch government on an illiquid assets back-up facility covering 80% of its alt-a mortgage securities
/Dutch govt loan guarantee to reduce risk-weighted assets by € 15 bn, raising ING bank's tier-1 ratio to 9.5% (+40bp) /
Cut 7K jobs / CEO will step down
CREDIT SUISSE's investment-banking unit saw the inflow of new money slow down in the Q4 (NZZ am Sonntag)i
EDF will need around €1.5 bn in annual net financing up to 2019 for its new nuclear operations in the countries it is
targeting (CEO)
RENAULT : Sales of new cars will likely drop 14% to 55 m units worldwide this year + will take at least 7 years for global
new-car sales to recover to their peak level of 69 m units, seen in 2007 (Ghosn)
FIAT : UniCredit’s CEO said Fiat must be given funds to help it overcome the recession (Italian press)
BPI : 4Q net income €115.9m after it sold a stake in its Angolan division (€163m expected)
SWISS RE may face more writedowns on the high-risk portion of its investments (Finanz & Wirtschaft newspaper)

NOMURA is expected to post a net loss of 300 bn yen ($3.38 bn) in October-December as market turmoil hit its trading
business (Nikkei)
TOYOTA will cut production by 20% this year (The Tokyo Shimbun)

" !

TOTAL RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL BY MERRIL LYNCH


PEARSON RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERWEIGHT BY JPMORGAN
UBISOFT RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL BY UBS

LOGITECH RATED NEW SELL BY RBS


CHEVRON REMOVED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST BY GOLDMAN
STATOILHYDRO CUT TO NEUTRALFROM BUY BY GOLDMAN
XTRATACUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP
BHP CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY BY CITIGROUP
REPSOL REMOVED TO CONVICTION BUY LISTBY GOLDMAN

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23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -7-
www.global-equities.com
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Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

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23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -8-
www.global-equities.com
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