Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | December 11, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | December 11, 2012 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5908.9 19466.29 9510.6 1962.52 15399.78 High 5965.05 19612.18 9534.18 1965.68 15520.57

Indias Trade Balance was at a deficit of $19.3 billion in October. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 6.9-mark in Dec. UKs Conference Board (CB) declined by 0.4 percent in October. European Economic Sentiment rose to 7.6-level in current month.

as at 4.30 pm 11 December12
Low 5865.9 19285.39 9487.95 1956.75 15262.44 Last 5898.8 19387.14 9525.32 1964.62 15494.34 % Chg from Prev day -0.1 -0.1 -0.09 0.36 0.9
Source: Reuters

European equities are trading higher ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting along with expectations to solve the US fiscal cliff. Asian stocks ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Indias Trade Balance was at a deficit of $19.3 billion in October from previous surplus of $20.9 billion a month ago. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.7 percent in November as against a previous fall of 0.6 percent in October. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 6.9-mark in December from previous decline of 15.7-level in November. European ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 7.6-level in current month as against a fall of 2.6-mark in last month. UKs Conference Board (CB) declined by 0.4 percent in October as compared to rise of 0.2 percent a month ago. Spot gold prices are trading on a negative note on the back of worries as to how US lawmakers will be able to resolve the fiscal issue of the nation. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). Appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure on the prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices and mixed sentiments in base metals complex, Spot silver prices declined by percent today. However, weakness in the DX prevented further fall in the white metal prices. The base metals pack traded on a mixed note on account of mixed global market sentiments. However, sharp downside was restricted on the back of decline in LME inventories except Copper along with weakness in the DX. Copper, the leader of the base metals group declined by percent taking cues from rise in LME inventories by 1 percent which stood at 261,725 tonnes. Nymex crude oil prices gained 0.5 percent on the back of expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories, Additionally, a weaker DX also acted as a positive factor for the crude oil prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending on 7th December 2012. Gasoline stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to gain by 1.5 million barrels for the same week.

as at 4.30 pm 11 December12
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 80.32 1.294 54.49 High 80.37 1.2975 54.49 Low 80.185 1.2927 54.25 Current 80.225 1.297 54.27 % Chg from Prev day -0.13 0.23 -0.12
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 11 December12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Feb13 MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Jan 12 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Dec 12 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Dec12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Dec12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Dec12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Dec12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1711.79 1710.00 31493 33.19 33.07 62519 85.70 107.45 4693 8120.00 449.00 2081.00 112.25 2294.00 124.50 17780 966.00 2124.25 114.50

1712.98 1710.10 31500 33.26 33.08 63003 85.99 108.15 4693 8131.75 449.00 2100.00 113.25 2314.75 125.05 17817 967.70 2136.00 115.25

1706.54 1707.70 31343 32.95 33.05 63020 85.37 107.09 4657 8100.00 446.50 2074.00 111.80 2288.50 123.60 17690 962.80 2121.00 114.35

1709.40 1710.10 31368 33.06 33.08 62451 85.98 108.11 4679 8117.00 447.20 2096.00 113.00 2309.00 124.80 17816 967 2135.00 115.10

-0.12 -0.17 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 0.5 0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.99 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.02 -0.1 0.4 0.17

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | December 11, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious, base metals and crude oil prices to remain volatile ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy decision tomorrow along with doubts over resolution of the fiscal cliff issue of the nation. Any positive statement bythe US law makers might increase the risk appetite and support an upside in the commodities. Weakness in the DX is expected to support an upside in the commodities.

Technical Outook for evening session 11 December12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Feb'13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Dec '12 Nymex Crude Oil Jan12 Natural Gas Dec12 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Dec12 Lead Dec12 Aluminum Dec12 Nickel Dec12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 31185 1694 62125 32.68 4601 84.5 182.5 442.3 110.55 121.8 113.65 948 Support 1 31302 1703.6 62425 32.92 4634 85.1 185 445.5 111.75 123.2 114.25 960 CMP 31372 1710 62560 33.12 4682 85.97 189.6 447.2 112.85 124.75 115.3 967.6 Resistance1 31484 1719 62960 33.28 4710 86.5 191.5 449.6 113.6 125.7 115.75 980 Resistance 2 31575 1726 63250 33.43 4759 87.4 195.7 451.7 114.8 127.1 116.65 992

Important Events for Today

Indicator RICS House Price Balance New Loans German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment Trade Balance Country UK China Euro Euro US Time (IST) 5:31am 7:30am 3:30pm 3:30pm 7:00pm Actual -9% 523B 6.9 7.6 Forecast -5% 550B -11.4 0.1 -42.4B Previous -7% 505B -15.7 -2.6 -41.5B Impact Medium Medium High Medium High