NanoMarkets Report

Markets for Low-Cost Sensors 2012

Nano-593

Published Nov. 2012

Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission of NanoMarkets, LC.

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Background and Objectives of this Report .......................................... 1 1.1 Background to this Report .................................................................................. 1 Page | i 1.1.1 Low-Cost Electronics as a Market for Low-Cost Sensors................................. 1 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report .................................................................. 1

Chapter Two: Low-Cost Sensor Technologies and Products .................................... 3 2.1 Low-Cost Sensors: Key Issues .......................................................................... 3 2.1.1 Definition of Low-Cost Sensors........................................................................ 3 2.1.2 The Importance of Printing to the Low-Cost Sensor Value Proposition ............ 3 2.2 Diagnostic Test StripsThe Biggest Market for Low-Cost Sensors................ 7 2.3 Other Applications for Low-Cost Sensors ......................................................... 8 2.3.1 Low-Cost Sensors in Smart Packaging of Consumer Goods ........................... 9 2.3.2 Low-Cost Sensors in Pharmaceutical Packaging and Healthcare-Related Smart Applications ................................................................................................. 10 2.3.3 Interactive Media and Disposable Electronics ................................................ 11 2.3.4 Low-Cost Sensors in Lighting Applications .................................................... 13 2.3.5 Low-Cost Sensors in Building Automation ..................................................... 15 Chapter Three: Forecasts for Low-Cost Sensors...................................................... 17 3.1 Forecasting Methodology.................................................................................. 17 3.1.1 General Methodology .................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 Data Sources ................................................................................................. 17 3.1.3 Scope of the Forecast.................................................................................... 18 3.1.4 Economic Assumptions ................................................................................. 19 3.1.5 Alternative Scenarios ..................................................................................... 20 3.2 Eight-Year Forecasts for Low-Cost Sensors.................................................... 21 3.2.1 Forecasts of Diagnostic Test Strips ............................................................... 21 3.2.2 Eight-Year Forecasts for Low-Cost Sensors in Smart Packaging .................. 24 3.2.3 Forecasts of Low-Cost Sensors in Pharmaceutical Smart Packaging and Healthcare-Related Applications............................................................................. 27 3.2.4 Forecasts for Low-Costs Sensors in Interactive Media and Disposable Electronics.............................................................................................................. 30 3.2.5 Eight-Year Forecasts for Low-Cost Sensors in Lighting ................................. 33 3.2.6 Eight-Year Forecasts for Low-Cost Sensors in Building Automation .............. 35 3.3 Summaries of Eight-Year Forecasts for Low-Cost Sensors ........................... 38 3.3.1 Summary by Application ................................................................................ 38

3.3.2 Summary by Sensor Type ............................................................................. 40 Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................. 43 About the Author ..................................................................................................... 43

List of Exhibits
Exhibit 2-1: Advantages of Printing for Fabricating Low-Cost Sensors ......................................... 4 Exhibit 2-2: Survey of Printed Sensor Research Devices ........................................................... 6 Exhibit 2-2: Survey of Printed Sensor Research Devices ........................................................... 7 Exhibit 3-1: Analysis of the Diagnostic Test Strips Market 2012-2019 ....................................... 22 Exhibit 3-2: Analysis of Low-Cost Sensors in Smart Packaging Applications for Consumer Goods 2012-2019 .................................................................................................................... 25 Exhibit 3-3: Analysis of Pharmaceutical Smart Packaging and Healthcare-Related Smart Applications for Low-Cost Sensors 2012-2019 ................................................................. 28 Exhibit 3-4: Analysis of Interactive Media* and Disposable Electronics Applications for Low-Cost Sensors 2012-2019 ....................................................................................................... 31 Exhibit 3-5: Analysis of Low-Cost Sensors in Lighting Applications 2012-2019 ........................... 33 Exhibit 3-6: Analysis of Low-Cost Sensors in Novel, Low-End Building Automation Applications 2012-2019 .................................................................................................................... 36 Exhibit 3-7: Summary of the Low-Cost Sensor Market by Application 2012-2019 ....................... 38 Exhibit 3-8: Summary of Low-Cost Sensor Market by Sensor Type 2012-2019 .......................... 40

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Chapter One: Background and Objectives of this Report

1.1 Background to this Report
The sensor market will continue to grow over the next decade, driven largely by the need for better diagnostics for an aging (and ailing) population, as well as by the growth of low-cost Page | 1 electronics and packaging products with integrated sensing capabilities. The latter applications are part of a larger trend toward printed and/or ubiquitous electronics, which is finally showing signs of real growth after percolating for several years.

1.1.1 Low-Cost Electronics as a Market for Low-Cost Sensors

In the earliest days, "printed electronics" mostly referred to various thick-film electronics applications in which simple circuitry was formed using screen-printed metallic inks. However, over the last decade or so, printed electronics became associated with the idea of using printing to create a whole new class of complex electronic devices, including printed RFIDs, sensors, lighting, displays, PV panels, etc. This new sector was expected to lead to an era of electronic ubiquity, but the new printed electronics revolution did not occur, and few commercial products emerged. However, in the last couple of years, there has been something of a revival in printed electronics. Not surprisingly, efforts today have much more modest targets in mind, and "printed electronics" has now become largely associated with "low-cost" electronics applications, and the trend toward putting more and more electronics into everyday objectsalso called "ubiquitous electronics." The ubiquitous electronics trend has also been called "ubiquitous computing," "pervasive electronics," "pervasive computing," and "intelligence everywhere." It is also related to the "Internet-of-Things," which seeks to connect all kinds of things through a wireless, sensor-enabled network. Low-cost sensors are a key enabler of this larger trend toward ubiquitous electronics. The concept of putting electronics into everyday objects of all kinds calls for very low-cost components, including sensors, that are good enough to install in books, magazines, greeting cards, packaging, tracking devices, flexible displays, banking and ID products, etc. Importantly, it is in these new low-cost electronics applications that NanoMarkets believes some of the most exciting, i.e., highest growth, opportunities in the low-cost sensor sector lie. The lowcost electronics market is just emerging, and there is much to be determined with respect to addressable market size, market pull versus market push, technology challenges, etc. Nevertheless, there are already ways for sensors to tap into this emerging market by leveraging existing technologies, materials, manufacturing approaches, and marketing channels.

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report

This new report from NanoMarkets quantifies the markets for low-cost sensors. Specifically, the objective of this report is to quantify the markets for such sensors by application over the next eight years, in both volume/quantity and revenue terms. We examine the latest technologies, strategies, and technical developments of the industry. NanoMarkets has provided coverage of the printed sensors markets for several years as part of a

larger focus on the low-cost and printed electronics markets, and in this report we share the insights that we have garnered into the market opportunities that will emerge and grow for lowcost sensors in key application areas. The low-cost sensor applications covered by this report include: smart packaging for food, personal care, pharmaceutical, and healthcare applications; interactive media and disposable electronics applications; and diagnostic test strips for monitoring of, for example, blood glucose or cholesterol levels in conjunction with an electronic meter. Page | 2

Chapter Two: Low-Cost Sensor Technologies and Products

2.1 Low-Cost Sensors: Key Issues 2.1.1 Definition of Low-Cost Sensors
"Sensors" is a very broad category; they can be found in disparate applications, can be of many different types, and, most importantly, are available at many different price points. The focus of this report, however, is low-cost sensors. For the purposes of this report, "low-cost" is assumed to be sensors with a price of approximately $1 or less. At this price level, we are talking about the following types of sensors: Sensors that can be made in relatively large quantities, often in large arrays, and generally using relatively high-volume manufacturing methods. In this context, printed sensors are of particular importance. Printing, or coating in general, is a fabrication method particularly compatible with high volume/low-cost manufacturing. However, other manufacturing methods compatible with low-cost manufacturing are also important, such as the thin-film manufacturing used to make simple, passive-infrared motion sensors. Sensors that use a single technologylike (bio)chemical, motion, or thermal sensingto sense a single factor. Sensing of a single factor using a single technology keeps the complexityand costlow. A key example is blood glucose test strips, which use chemical sensing and are made in large quantities using a printing or coating process. Page | 3

2.1.2 The Importance of Printing to the Low-Cost Sensor Value Proposition

As noted above, the connection between low-cost sensors and printing is that printing potentially provides a way to create large numbers of sensors, or large arrays of sensors, in a low cost manner. This ability is particularly important for roll-to-roll manufacturing methods, which involve the use of flexible substrates, and for which printing is very well equipped. Broadly speaking, several manufacturing processes can be used to create sensors, including printing, methods associated with the conventional semiconductor industry, and novel nanoscale engineering processes. Of the three processes, printing, in particular, will be the most applicable manufacturing method for enabling the creation of sensors at low cost. While the other two process areas could potentially be used to make sensors, they are likely to be too expensive for use in most low-cost sensor manufacturing. They may also be non-optimal in other ways: Sensors can be created using the standard tools of optical lithography and/or solid-state, thin-film deposition. Thus, one could imagine some type of vapor deposition being used to create layers in a large-area sensor structure, with patterning done via photolithography. However, not only are most of these methods expensive, but they also do not work well with flexible substrates, which are particularly important in the low-cost sensing

applications considered in this report (disposable electronics, packaging, and diagnostic test strips). Nanoscale engineering processes, such as dip-pen nanolithography (DPN) and nanoimprint lithography (NIL), might be appropriate for creating sensors in some cases. In particular, the ability to engineer at the nanoscale level could translate into higher Page | 4 performance sensors. But high-throughput nanoscale engineering tools are still not a commercial reality, so outside of research labs and prototyping facilities, this approach may not be the way to go, at least not yet.

Printing, in contrast, is extremely well suited to fabricating low-cost sensors. Furthermore, printing is a mature technology, which ensures that the association between low-cost and printing is and will be a strong one.

Exhibit 2-1: Advantages of Printing for Fabricating Low-Cost Sensors Aspect of printing Advantage for low-cost sensors Low cost Obviously always an advantage, but critically important for smart packaging and disposable electronics. It is also important in spreading diagnostic tests from specialized laboratories to points-of-carea major trend in patient care that can build upon the success of the diagnostic test strip market success. Ability to create layers on Most of the applications for low-cost sensors require flexible flexible substrates substrates. Areas where flexible sensors have a role include smart labels and packaging, diagnostic test strips, and many interactive media applications, especially those used for advertising purposes. Printing is an additive Reduces waste, which is important when expensive materials process are used, and is the case for many types of sensors. The advantage of an additive process and low waste is obvious when one considers that the material used for the sensing subsystem might be an expensive organic/biological material and the electrodes may be made from gold, silver, or various nanomaterials. Printing combines coating Printing can cover very large areas very quickly, which helps to (deposition) and reduce unit costs. texturing/patterning Different printing methods Having such options means that the printing can be adjusted to available for high volume correspond with the volume (high/low) associated with the and low-volume particular product being produced. applications NanoMarkets 2012

There are several types of printing processes available for creating sensors. In the long run, highvolume/high-speed processes like flexography and gravure printing may be the most promising methods for achieving low-cost manufacturing. However, in the near- and mid-term, two other

types of printinginkjet and screen-printingstand out as the most likely to be compatible with low-cost sensor manufacturing, at least in the early years before volumes become very large. Screen-printing is the old industry standard, harking back to the days when "printed electronics" meant thick-film electronics; as such, there is a lot of expertise accumulated in this area, not to mention good availability of materials. Page | 5 Meanwhile, inkjet printing has received considerable publicity as a way to create functional devices, because, for instance, it uses relatively small quantities of material, and therefore is cost-effective for small volumes (so good for prototyping). Inkjet also creates very fine features, which may be good for certain types of high-performance sensors.

Multiple sensing and long-term opportunities: Printing is also well-suited to the creation of multiple layers; in fact, that is what much of functional printing is really all about. As a result, at least in theory, layered sensor products can be created with functional printing. Of course, it turn out that simply both the sensing layer and the electrodes are created with printing techniques. But this fabrication concept may also be extended to producing sensors with multiple sensing layers, so that the sensor can sense multiple signals. The higher cost associated with the increased complexity of multiple-sensing functionality means that these types of sensors are generally outside the scope of this report, which is focused on low-cost components. However, multi-sensing function is one of the main trends in the broader sensor industry today and, as such, represents a longer-term opportunity for low-cost sensors as costs come down. A briefand by no means completesurvey of sensors that have been created using printing in the recent past is provided in Exhibit 2-2. As the Exhibit indicates, printing can be used to create a broad range of features and functions for sensors: As indicated by the variety of applications in the table, sensors are likely to play a more important role in the emerging low-cost electronics market than in the previous phase of printed electronics, so developments in printed sensing devices and related materials are taking on new meaning and significance. If all of the above sounds like a positive assessment of the future role of printing in sensors, that was the intention. However, we also think that enthusiasm about printed sensors in the context of low-cost electronics should be tempered by the fact that, today, most of the cited examples can be attributed to R&D activities, and most of them have a long way to go to demonstrate compatibility with low-cost manufacturing. Interesting/novel mass-market applications for printing of low-cost sensors are few and far between at the present time.

Exhibit 2-2: Survey of Printed Sensor Research Devices Company or Details Organization(s) Fujifilm Dimatix Fujifilm Dimatix announced that researchers at (Japan) and McMaster University, working jointly with Canada's McMaster University SENTINEL Bioactive Paper Network, have used its (Canada) Dimatix DMP-2800 Dimatix Materials Printer to make biosensors. In this work, the printer was used with biocompatible, enzyme-doped, solgel-based inks sandwiched between two layers of biocompatible silica nanoparticles onto paper strips, creating colorimetric sensor strips. Diagnostics for All Using technology originally licensed from Harvard, (U.S.) this firm is developing paper-based blood diagnostic test components (strips, squares, etc.) using printing. Paper substrates are pre-printed with wax to define channels/wells, and then printed with various bioactive materials, such as enzymes, and colorchanging dyes. The sensors are used by simply dropping a blood sample onto the finished test square, which induces a color change under specified conditions. Firm reports that it can make up to 1000 tests per day, and is seeking regulatory approval(s) and distribution channels. PARC (a Xerox DARPA has funded the development by PARC of a company)/DARPA partially-jetted military sensor in the form of a (Defense Advanced disposable strip that is intended to monitor soldiers' Projects Research exposure to shockwaves. These strips should cost Agency) (U.S.) about $1 each according to published reports, and they are designed to help diagnose traumatic brain injury. Georgia Institute of Researchers at Georgia Tech have developed a Technology (U.S.) wireless sensor for toxic gas detection that integrates an RFID antenna with a single-walled carbon nanotube composite. According to reports, this sensor is created using inkjet printing on a lowcost paper-based substrate, and the gas sensing is achieved through changes in electrical conductivity of the CNT film in the presence of very small quantities of toxic gases, such as ammonia and nitrogen oxide.

Low-Cost Compatibility? Yes

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Yes, in most cases

Yes

Yes

Exhibit 2-2: Survey of Printed Sensor Research Devices Company or Details Organization(s) University of Piezoresistive strain sensors have been developed by Massachusetts (U.S.) researchers at the University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth using inkjet printing of PEDOT (poly(3,4ethylenedioxythiophene)) for the sensor itself and silver for the conducting lines on a fabric substrate. According to the researchers, the printed conductors penetrate into the fabric and actually coat the individual fibers within the yarn through the full thickness of the cloth. NanoTecCenter Weiz Researchers here have reported on a novel gas Forschungssensor with an integrated optical oxygen probe that gesellschaft (Austria) uses an OLED device and is fabricated with printing technology. This group has also built a "sub ppm ammoniac detector by means of a printed conducting polymer resistor" and developed the novel concept of a printed IR detector utilizing different inorganic nanoparticles. Massachusetts Several research groups have worked on printed Institute of electronic noses that already seem to have real-world Technology (U.S.) applications. Engineers at MIT have developed a prototype nose "that can sniff out carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, and hazardous industrial fumes." In this case, the sensor consists of thin layers of hollow spheres made of barium carbonate, fabricated via inkjet printing. The research team also plans to use the inkjet technology to print a large array of gasdetecting films on a three-dimensional surface. EcoBioServices (Italy) EcoBioServices has worked with the University of Florence to develop a serigraphic technique for the production of disposable sensors for biosensor development. According to the company, by using screen-printed disposable electrodes, it is possible to overcome two major problems commonly observed for electrochemical sensorsthe so-called memory effect of the electrode sensor and fouling effects. Furthermore, the screen-printed disposable electrodes are characterized by a high reproducibility and they do not require calibration. National Centre for A printed wireless sensor has been built by this Irish Sensor Research research institute. In this case, the sensor is an (Ireland) optical chemical sensor for gaseous acetic acid analysis, which was constructed via the jetted deposition of the colorimetric chemical sensor. NanoMarkets 2012

Low-Cost Compatibility? Yes

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No

Maybe

Yes, but only the electrode is disposable not the entire sensor component.

Yes

2.2 Diagnostic Test StripsThe Biggest Market for Low-Cost Sensors

The diagnostic test strips used by diabetics in small portable blood glucose monitors are routinely printed, and there are similar test strips available for home cholesterol meters, although the diabetes functionality dominates the market.

Blood glucose test strips are the one current example of printing a biological device in very large quantitiesalmost 20 billion per year. Because some manufacturers of test strips are also interested in printed and low-cost electronics more generally, the diagnostic test strip market represents an important revenue stream for these firms to enable them to accelerate development and commercialization of applications for other, low-cost sensors. Test strips contain several dry layers of enzyme, mediator (or precursor), indicator, and many additional ingredients. Screen-printing and blade coating have both been used to create such strips, and there is usually some type of drying process that follows the printing process. Obviously, there are thermal limitations on drying and other processes used for creating test strips, as there would be for any printed biosensor-type product. Thus, short intensive drying is advantageous for avoiding damage to the enzyme protein and/or unwanted reactions of the mediator and indicator before the test strip is actually used. There are several types of test strips, the most common of which are the blood-glucose strips used by diabetics. While not a glamorous market, the market for blood glucose test strips is a very large one when you consider the number of people with diabetes. It is estimated that in the U.S. alone about 26 million people, or 8.3 percent of the population, have diabetes. Of this group, 18.8 million are diagnosed cases. Page | 8

2.3 Other Applications for Low-Cost Sensors

Outside of diagnostic test strips, which already constitute a multi-billion dollar industry, applications for low-cost sensors can be broadly divided into the following application sectors discussed in this section: smart packaging, interactive media/disposable electronics, lighting applications, and building automation.

Because of the different needs of smart packaging in the consumer goods arena (food, personal care, other consumer goods, etc.) compared to the healthcare industry, the two sectors will be considered separately. Sensors for these applications are unlikely to generate very large revenues in the next couple of years, but we are bullish on this sector in the mid- and longer-term. Low-cost sensors are particularly well-suited toand therefore likely to strongly penetratesome of the fastest growing segments of the larger electronics market, which in turn, we believe, are driven by larger socioeconomic forces. Growth in smart packaging and disposable electronics is being driven by the rise of printed electronics, as discussed above. For example, smart packaging is part of a larger shift in consumer products towards embedding electronics in all objects to make them "intelligent." Growth in sectors like smart lighting and building automation is being driven by the rise of the "Internet of Things", which seeks to use wireless communication in combination with