Nuclear Energy: A Potential Solution to the Power Crisis of Bangladesh

Tahmida Binte Mahmud1, Mohammad Saad Billah and Muhammad Abdullah Arafat
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka - 1000, Bangladesh
1

tahmida.mahmud@ieee.org The glorious journey of nuclear power plants started on June 27, 1954 in Obninsk, Moscow [5]. But for a very long time it was a luxury only developed countries could afford. However, developing countries started their nuclear power projects in the 1970s. India and Pakistan, two neighbouring countries of Bangladesh started it in 1969 and 1971 respectively. In fact, India is expecting to have 20,000 MW nuclear capacities on line by 2020 [6]. Unfortunately, even in 2010 Bangladesh has not been able to accomplish much progress in her attempt towards nuclear power plant. In this paper, comparison has been done between nuclear energy and other possible resources in terms of economical and environmental aspects. The reasons behind the suitability of nuclear power implementation in Bangladesh have been pointed out and the scenario of some developed and developing Asian countries in this regard has been represented. II. NUCLEAR ENERGY: A PROMISING ALTERNATIVE Like any other power plants nuclear power plants operate on the basis of energy conversion. Here, the nuclear reaction is producing thermal energy which undergoes some processes to produce electrical energy or more precisely electricity. Nuclear power plants can be classified according to their moderator materials, coolants, generation, phase of fuel and so on. At present, most of the operating plants are either second generation Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) or Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). The cost of nuclear power generation consists of- (a) Plant construction cost, (b) Operational cost of running the plant and energy generation, (c) Waste disposal cost and (d) Cost of decommissioning the plant. The new third generation nuclear power plants are more efficient both economically and functionally compared to the currently used second generation ones. According to Westinghouse and General Electric, the famous nuclear plant producing companies, the third generation plants will cost approximately USD $1400-2000 per KW whereas the second generation ones cost USD $5000 per KW. The plant completion time has also been decreased from 5 to 3 years [7]. Although the capital cost is much higher when it comes to nuclear plants, the annual saving on fuel cost compensates for that. Typical 600 MW nuclear plants require $ 40-45 million for fuel per year which is extremely low compared to the $120 million and $450 million fuel requirement in coal and oil fired plants respectively [8]. Fig. 1 represents that the overall generation cost is much lower in case of nuclear plants than the other resources although it requires higher capital cost [9]. As nuclear power plants get lifetime assurance of fuel supply,

Abstract The augmenting power demand along with the limitations evinced by age old power plants has become an intimidation for Bangladesh, paving the way of unprecedented energy crisis. Ominous depletion of traditional fossil fuels of the country has accentuated the need for an alternative power generation source. Most of the developed as well as some developing Asian countries have already initiated the installation and implementation of nuclear power plants keeping pace with rest of the world. In Bangladesh the nuclear power project is still in a very introductory stage and is yet to testify practical dimensions. With the objective of reviewing the potentiality, this paper reveals a comprehensive study of the possibilities of nuclear power plants over other energy resources by insightful comparison especially in terms of economical and environmental aspects. In addition to this an overall picture of nuclear energy implementation in Asian countries has been presented to justify the possibilities. Keywords Emission trading cost, fuel cost, global warming, nuclear energy, power crisis.

I. INTRODUCTION Being an overpopulated developing country with depleting natural resources, Bangladesh is facing several challenges in the way of her advancement. Undoubtedly, power crisis is currently the major obstacle that the country has to deal with. The huge difference between the daily peak hour power demand of 6,066 MW and the daily generation of 4,162.10 MW has rather made this issue the burning question of the country. The generation from natural gas, furnace oil, coal, hydro and diesel are 82.69%, 5.09%, 4.55%, 4.19% and 3.28% [1]. Overdependence on conventional yet exhausting energy resources such as gas, furnace oil, diesel and coal can lead the country towards dangerous consequences. According to Petrobangla the natural gas resources are not adequate enough to meet the present demand [2]. Apart from the scarcity and high fuel cost of these resources, their negative impact on environment such as global warming cannot be ignored. The International Monetary Fund anticipates that economic growth of Bangladesh would slide to five percent a year which is the worst performance in eight years largely due to the degrading energy crisis [3]. Growing electricity demand and regular interruption in the operation of the age-old power plants have generated the need of some alternatives such as tidal energy, solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy and nuclear energy. Among these options, nuclear energy is one of the most potential choices to overcome this situation since Bangladesh has already got approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) [4].

the generation cost is not that much dependent on the price change. Nuclear power plant is the most concentrated form of energy generation as well. If a kilogram of Uranium-235 (U235) is converted via nuclear processes, three million times the energy is obtained that would have got by burning a kilogram of coal conventionally. It is for all these reasons that the production cost in nuclear plants are extremely low (less than 2 cents per KWhr) [10]. Considering all these aspects, nuclear power reprensents a promising prospect in Bangladesh.
80 70 60 50 Euro () / MWhr 40 30 20 10 0 Nuclear 5 40 26.2

extensive scientific basis for the cycle. The fuel is easy to transport as new fuel also. Although nuclear plants are often criticized on the basis of environmental impact, the rate of carbon di-oxide emission accounted for global warming and respiratory diseases is extremely low compared to other energy generation sources which is depicted in Fig. 2 [14]. The accident of Chernobyl will not seem to be an example if the overall scenario is considered. It is seen that direct fatalities per GW/year is only 0.006 in nuclear reactors whereas for the coal and oil based plants it is 0.876 and 0.436 respectively. Table I gives a more clear idea of this [15].

Fuel Costs O & M Costs Capital Costs 40.6

Nuclear power Natural gas(CC)

24 519 608 742 975

11 9
41.9 23.9

Natural gas Oil Coal

10
20

8
6.2 Gas

11.5 Coal Wood Wind

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Lifecycle CO2 emissions [g-CO2/KWh] Fig. 2 CO2 emissions of several power sources (including methane) TABLE I FATAL ACCIDENTS IN WORLDWIDE ENERGY SECTOR, 1969-2000

Fig. 1 Electricity generation costs, without emission trading

III. COMPARISON WITH OTHER ENERGY SOURCES The forms of energy generation are vivid and so are their merits and demerits. Dependence on water elevation poses a huge restriction on the hydroelectric plants. The required dams act as potential threats to environment in both flooded and downstream areas. There is also scarcity of appropriate locations in Bangladesh for such plants as major parts of the country stand the risk of being flooded. Among the other traditional sources, natural gas is depleting fast. New gas-fired power plant is impossible as the current gas fired gas turbines and combined cycle power plants cannot continue operating utilizing their full capacity. The oil fired power plants are now very expensive due to the large price swings of fuel. Though coal fired power plant is an alternative and cheaper option, it requires expensive measures to control air pollution. Extensive transportation system is also needed. Global warming and acid rains caused by such plants are of growing concern. Among the other renewable sources, the wind power plant is limited to windy areas and highly climate dependent which is not feasible for Bangladesh [11]. Though the price is decreasing, solar power plant is still very costly. It requires large areas of land in spite of having relatively lower output. There are various solar power projects under private or non-government supervision such as Grameen Shakti, IDCOL, etc. [12]. But Bangladesh government has started working for only 3 solar power plants (2 in Rajshahi, 1 in Jamalpur), providing only 7 MWs of power [13]. On the other hand, in nuclear power plants, the larger capital cost accounts for the emergency, containment, storage system and management of radioactive waste. It has certain nuclear proliferation issue also. But the fuel is relatively cheaper. The waste is more compact and there is

Energy Sources Coal Oil Natural gas LPG Hydro Nuclear reactor

No. accidents 1221 397 125 105 11 1

Direct fatalities 25107 20283 1978 3921 29938 31

Direct fatalities per GW/year 0.876 0.436 0.093 3.536 4.265 0.006

IV. NUCLEAR ENERGY: ASIA PERSPECTIVE Nuclear plants flourished in the industrial countries near the oil shock of 1973-74. Although the developing countries (excluding India) had been ordering 200-300 MW capacity plants earlier, during this period it raised to 700-800 MW [16]. Asia is making significant progress in electricity generating capacity as well as nuclear power implementation. Apart from the proposed ones, 112 nuclear power reactors are in operation and 37 under construction in East and South Asia [17]. China, Japan, South Korea and India are the expected countries to have the greatest growth in nuclear generation. Japan has 54 units (47 GW) in operation, 2 under construction, 12 planned (total 19 GW), also 17 research reactors [17]. It generates up to 30% of its electricity from nuclear power. By 2017, this figure is expected to increase to 41% if emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol are met. They have long term plan to double nuclear capacity (to 90 GW) and nuclear share by 2050. The first of the reactors was connected to the grid in 1996. China has 11 units in operation (8.6 GW), 22 under construction (24.6 GW), 35 planned, 120 proposed; also 13 research reactors. Chinese electricity demand has been increasing at more than 8% per year. National plans call for 80 GW nuclear by 2020, requiring an

average of 7000 MW per year to be added. The Chinese industry projects 200 GW by 2030. Republic of Korea (South Korea) has 20 units in operation (17.5 GW), 6 under construction, 6 planned (total 15 GW), also 2 research reactors. It meets 35% of its electricity needs from nuclear power. The national plan is to expand to 35 nuclear power reactors by 2030, including advanced reactor designs, and achieve 59% nuclear supply. Demand for electricity in South Korea has been increasing strongly. India has 19 units in operation (4.2 GW), 4 under construction, 20 planned, 24 proposed; also 5 research reactors. Nuclear power currently supplies less than 4% of electricity in India from 19 reactors. The units under construction are due for completion by 2011, and a further 35 units are proposed. It is planned to have 20 GW by 2020. Pakistan has 2 reactors in operation, 1 under construction, 2 planned, also 1 research reactor. It generates almost 3% of its electricity from nuclear energy. Its second nuclear reactor started up in 2000, and the third - supplied by China - is under construction. The government plans 0.9 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2015, and a further 7.5 GW by 2030. Some developing asian countries have also started advancing towards nuclear energy. Table II presents the overall scenerio [17].
TABLE II NUCLEAR POWER PLANT SCENARIO IN SOME DEVELOPING ASIAN COUNTRIES

90 80 Electricity generation costs (/MWh) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -25% 0% 25% Change of fuel cost Fig. 3 The impact of changes in fuel costs on power Nuclear Gas Coal 50%

Country Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia

Planned 2 2 2 -

Proposed 4 8 4 1 -

Research 3 1 1 1 1

V. SUITABILITY OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN BANGLADESH The competitiveness of nuclear energy has earlier been discussed over other possible alternatives. This justification is intended to be rationalized with a more specific overview of nuclear power plant itself. Bangladesh is not self sufficient in natural gas for generating power. Importing natural gas is not feasible considering the rising trend of gas prices worldwide. The insensitive nature of nuclear electricity generation cost to the change of its fuel price has clearly made nuclear power plants the most economical choice. From Table III it is seen that by 2050 coal and natural gas will have much higher fuel price but the cost of nuclear fuel will remain almost unchanged [18].
TABLE III FUEL PRICE PROJECTIONS (SELECTED YEARS)

Year

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Delivered fuel prices, Constant 2008 $ per Million Btus Coal ($) Natural Gas Nuclear Fuel ($) ($) 1.93 7.51 0.73 1.80 6.41 0.78 1.87 7.48 0.79 1.96 9.17 0.76 2.06 11.24 0.73

Even if the price of nuclear fuel increases by any chance it will have little effect on the electricity generation cost compared with other power plants based on coal or gas. Fig. 3

indicates the independent nature of energy generation cost of nuclear power plants with respect to changing fuel cost [20]. The cost for power plant construction including metal prices, power plant components and other related things is on the rise for all power plants. But as the world is getting concerned about environmental issues day by day the emission trading price is also being increased (emission right price of 2012 is 23 euro per ton carbon di oxide) [19]. As nuclear power plant has the lowest rate of carbon di oxide emission than other gas and coal power plants, the choice of nuclear power plants over other plants in this regard is certainly more far sighting. The green energies such as solar, tidal or wind energy lag behind nuclear power plants in terms of efficiency as it has a remarkable efficiency of 37% in electricity production [19]. The economical lifetime of power plant is the investment payback period which is certainly less than the technical lifetime. The technical and economical lifetime of nuclear power plants are 60 years and 40 years respectively including annual maintenance investments in the operation and maintenance costs. But for other power plants the economical lifetime is only 25 years and the annual maintenance investment is not included in the operation and maintenance cost [9]. In June 2007, Bangladesh got the approval for setting up nuclear power station from the IAEA. Bangladesh was in the top of the list of eight developing countries which were approved to set up nuclear power plants. An agreement is expected to be signed between Bangladesh and Russia in September, 2010 for cooperation in nuclear technology exchange for generating electricity. It has been a year since Bangladesh has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Russia for the Rooppur (200 km northwest to the capital Dhaka) power plant establishment. The completion period of this power plant installation is expected to be six to seven years having a generation capacity of 600MW to 1500 MW of electricity [19]. According to this memorandum, Russia will be the nuclear material supplier, the service provider in the field of fuel cycle and the co-operators in radioactive waste management. Training the administration staff and updating the related scientific and technical persons are also their priorities. Both local and international financial resources will be used in this project. But this project is still in a very early stage although it was conceived in the early 1960s. The proposals offered by China and South Korea have initiated new possibilities. Faster advancement of these projects largely depends on the duration of decision making.

Considering all these facts, nuclear power plants indicates enormous prospect in Bangladesh. VI. CONCLUSIONS In this paper, the possibility of nuclear power plants in Bangladesh has been depicted as an alternative to the traditional energy resources. With comparative data and explanations, the contemporary potential of nuclear power plants to overcome the energy crisis of Bangladesh has been reviewed. The result shows that nuclear power plant is preferable for Bangladesh than any other energy options in terms of variable operating cost, fuel cost, economical lifetime, environmental impact, efficiency and large scale generation. However, in case of the nuclear plants care is to be taken to guard against deliberate attempts towards radiological accidents and possible theft of nuclear material. The growing dependence of other Asian countries on nuclear power plants as well as the successful outcomes, have firmly emphasized the suitability of nuclear power plants in a third world country like Bangladesh. However, more meticulous research and analysis is needed before final generation as the pioneer project is yet to be in operation. But on the basis of the analyzed available information, nuclear power is undoubtedly the most logical choice to eradicate the darkness of power crisis from Bangladesh. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We would like to acknowledge Dr Shawkat Akbar, Head, Nuclear Power & Energy Division, Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission for his helpful discussions and Md. Shahriar A. Chowdhury, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering , United International University for providing us with some useful data. We would also like to acknowledge Emran M. Amin, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engeering and Technology for his valuable guidance. REFERENCES [1] (2010) Bangladesh Power Development Board Official Website. [Online]. Available: http://www.bpdb.gov.bd [2] Petrobangla -Bangladesh Oil, Gas & Mineral Corporation, Annual Report 2008 [3] (2010) Energy Bangla Website. [Online]. Available: http://www.energybangla.com [4] (2007) Reuters Website. [Online]. Available: http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-28149820070624 [5] (2010) World Nuclear Association Website. [Online]. Available: http://world-nuclear.org/info/inf45.htm [6] (2010) Wikipedia Nuclear Power in India. [Online]. Available:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in _India [7] (2010) Nuclear Energy Institute Website. [Online]. Available: http://www.nei.org [8] (2010) Energy Bangla Website. [Online]. Available: http://www.energybangla.com [9] R. Tarjanne and A. Kivist, Comparison of Electricity Generation Costs, Lappeenranta Univ. of Tech., Lappeenranta, Finland, Research Rep., 2008.

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