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This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC.
Introduction
The US arm of Ducker Worldwide has collected data on the growth and development of aluminium content in automotive light vehicle applications on a bi annual basis since 1991 For the first time, in 2011, Ducker Europe began to collect similar data for cars in Europe The study was conducted in two phases The first Phase of the methodology had the scope to gather internal information from EAA members as well as of Ducker internal sources on the chosen components In Phase II interviews with parts makers and OEMs in Europe have been conducted in order to get all the missing information from Phase I, confirm or correct already existing data and clarify contradictions Data is collected on a bottom-up basis, meaning the market has been analysied on an OEM, platform-by-platform and product-by-product basis Primary research with OEMs, automotive suppliers, aluminum producers and other expert sources The contents of this report are not developed to be utilized as a business planning document; it was created with a trend line, marketing and public relations frame work to help educate the public on automotive applications of aluminum in Europe Information contained within this report should be considered point in time; and can change rapidly along with several external variables
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Introduction
Ducker examined all the components on this page for this study with a heavy concentration on the components in red which were chosen by the EAA members
Engines
Blocks Cylinder heads Oil pans Intake manifolds Pistons Water pump housings Alternator cases Fuel rails Front covers Bed plates Powertrain Mounts Timing chain covers Accessory brackets Oil filter adapters Cam covers Thermostat housings Water outlet tubes Valve Plates
Steering
Steering Knuckles Column housings Rack & pinion housings Steering Wheels Ball joint yokes
Transmissions
Automatic, CVT & Dual Clutch Transmission cases Transfer Case Power take off units Differential Carriers Drive shafts Yokes
Heat Transfer
Radiators Heater cores Transmission coolers Condensers Evaporators Compressors Housings Compressor scrolls Compressor pistons Connection hardware Oil coolers Receiver/dryers Heat shields
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Introduction
These 57 vehicles were chosen by the EAA members for detailed analysis
Segm ent A Example Fiat 500(312) Fiat Panda(139) Audi A1(AU210) Audi TT(AU324) Citroen C3 Picas s o(A58) Citroen C3(A51) Lancia Yps ilon(846) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Peugeot 208(A9) Renault Clio(X98) Toyota Yaris (850L) Volks wagen Up Volks wagen Polo(VW250) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Audi Q3 (AU 316) Audi A3(AU370) BMW 1 (F20) Citroen C4(B7) Ford C-Max(C344) Ford Focus (C346) Ford Kuga Honda Civic(2HC) Jaguar XK(X150) Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Mini Countryman(R60) Opel As tra(GM P3400) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Peugeot 5008(T87) Renault Megane(X95) Volks wagen Golf(VW370) Volks wagen Touran(VW368) Volvo C30(Y279) Volvo XC60(Y413)
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Segment
Example Audi A4(AU481) Audi Q5(AU416) BMW 3 (F30) Mercedes -Benz B-Clas s (W246) Mercedes -Benz C-Clas s (W204) Opel Ins ignia(GM G3700) Peugeot 508(W2) Pors che Panam era(970) Volks wagen Pas s at(VW471) Volvo S60(Y283) Audi A6(AU571) Audi A7(AU573) Audi A8(AU641) Audi Q7(AU716) BMW 5 (F10) BMW 7 (F01/02) Jaguar XF(X250) Jaguar XJ(X351) Land Rover Ranger Rover (L405) Mercedes -Benz E-Clas s (W212) ) Mercedes -Benz S-Clas s (W221) Mercedes -Benz-S-Clas s (W222) Pors che Cayenne(E2) Volks wagen Touareg(VW526)
Introduction
One half of the total production of these OEMs is represented by the sample
2012 Sample Vehicles Segmented by OEM Sample Share of Total 2012 Units for These OEMs
Porsche Volvo 1% 2% Honda* Toyota* Tata 1% VW 3% 3% 14% Renault 5% Ford 7% Fiat 8% Audi 12% GM 10% BMW 13% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 79% 73% 52% 44% 44% 91% 62% 65% 40% 19% 35% 32% 92%
SampleUnits OEM SampleUnits 975,403 HondaCivic 111,766 783,274 Volvo 190,899 937,560 Porsche 81,670 698,611 Tata 187,188 929,086 Volkswagen 1,041,596 573,868 Ford 553,987 361,472 ToyotaYaris 220,390 GrandTotal 7,646,770
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Introduction
2012 EU Forecast
Hyundai 3% Tata 1% All other 3%
VW 19%
Toyota 4% GM 5% Fiat 8%
PSA 13%
Audi 7%
Ideally we would have put 50% of each OEMs anticipated 2012 production into the sample This does not take into account the selection criteria of picking only recently launched vehicles. 96% of the sample was launched in the last 62 months On this basis, the sample contains 56% of all the vehicles launched in the EU in the last 62 months
Sample Share Total EU Share
Mercedes 8% BMW 8%
VW BMW Audi
PSA
19% 8% 7%
13%
GM
10%
9% 8% 7%
5%
8% 8% 10%
Renault
Toyota Tata All Other
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5%
3% 3% 4%
11%
4% 1% 6%
Introduction
When compared to total 2012 EU light production, the sample is over weighted with D & E segment vehicles. The sample does not contain any full frame vehicles. These decisions had a negative effect on the total EU aluminum content versus the sample Sample Vehicles Split by Segment Total EU Vehicles Split by Segment
Other Full Full Size Full Frame Frame 2% 2%
E 15%
A 6%
E 8% B 22% D 16%
A 7%
B 31%
D 22%
C 35%
C 34%
7,646,770 Vehicles
17,232,935 Vehicles
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Executive Summary
Aluminum content ranges from 74.5 kg for the Fiat 500 to 561 kg for the Land Rover Range Rover. The average is 160 kg for the sample vehicles
Aluminum Intense
Complete
Fiat 500(312) Fiat Panda(139) Volkswagen Up Renault Clio(X98) Renault Megane(X95) Lancia Ypsilon(846) Toyota Yaris(850L) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Citroen C3(A51) Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Volkswagen Golf(VW370) Peugeot 208(A9) Opel Astra(GM P3400) Peugeot 5008(T87) Audi A1(AU210) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Ford C-Max(C344) Citroen C4(B7) BMW 1 (F20) Ford Focus(C346) Volkswagen Touran(VW368) Ford Kuga(C394) Volkswagen Passat(VW471) Mini Countryman(R60) Peugeot 508(W2) Honda Civic(2HC) Volvo C30(Y279) Audi A4(AU481) Opel Insignia(GM G3700) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) Audi A3(AU370) Volvo XC60(Y413) Audi Q3(AU316) Volvo S60(Y283) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) BMW 3 (F30) Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Audi Q5(AU416) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526) Jaguar XF(X250) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) Audi Q7(AU716) Porsche Cayenne(E2) Audi A6(AU571) BMW 5 (F10) Audi TT(AU324) Porsche Panamera(970) Audi A7(AU573) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221) BMW 7 (F01/F02) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W222) Jaguar XK(X150) Jaguar XJ(X351) Audi A8(AU641) Land Rover Range Rover(L405)
Executive Summary
A-Segment
Fiat Panda(139) Fiat 500(312) 2012 Units 237196 169151 22336 71610 295702 145125 383198 143234 202748 74964 220390 115943 88315 2012 Units 26700 117353 369718 199313 68630 164117 134499 260689 134708 2012 Units 19717 19169 42681 6224 59088 53061 kg/vehicle 75.5 74.5 269.7 150.6 124.3 119 102.3 102.8 109.1 86.2 96 98.2 78 kg/vehicle 306.9 228 198.4 202.9 184.3 166 175.6 147.1 148.6 kg/vehicle
C-Segment
Jaguar XK(X150) Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Volvo XC60(Y413) Audi Q3(AU316) Audi A3(AU370) Audi A4(AU481) Volvo C30(Y279) Honda Civic(2HC) Citroen C4(B7) BMW 1 (F20) Mini Countryman(R60) Volkswagen Touran(VW368) Ford Kuga(C394) Ford C-Max(C344) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Ford Focus(C346) Peugeot 5008(T87) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Volkswagen Golf(VW370) Opel Astra(GM P3400) Renault Megane(X95)
B-Segment
Audi TT(AU324) Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Peugeot 208(A9) Audi A1(AU210) Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Citroen C3(A51) Volkswagen Up Toyota Yaris(850L) Renault Clio(X98) Lancia Ypsilon(846)
D-Segment
Porsche Panamera(970) Audi Q5(AU416) BMW 3 (F30) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) Volvo S60(Y283) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) Peugeot 508(W2) Volkswagen Passat(VW471) Opel Insignia(GM G3700)
2012 Units 5304 99447 100246 91888 43994 222021 22023 111766 150235 216375 98413 109670 46099 131666 79206 376222 73892 140453 140323 364879 245529 2012 Units 33007 231809 168436 54970 50719 275896 43551 73152
kg/vehicle 453 194.5 203.7 200.9 169.6 139 151.8 141.3 133.7 114.6 165.5 141.4 129.3 133.9 112.5 131.9 109.5 130.3 126.8 106.3 105.1 kg/vehicle
E-Segment
Audi A7(AU573) BMW 5 (F10) Audi A6(AU571) Porsche Cayenne(E2) Audi Q7(AU716) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) Jaguar XF(X250) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526)
E-Segment
Land Rover Range Rover(L405) Jaguar XJ(X351) Audi A8(AU641) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W222) BMW 7 (F01/F02) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221)
Total
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7,646,770
160.1 9
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Tons
The 2012 sample aluminum content is 1.224 million tons. The BMW 3 Series, BMW 5 Series and the Mercedes E Class are 17% of the total. 15 vehicles represent over 50% of all the sample tons. Total EU 27 aluminum content is estimated to be 2.4 million tons. The sample contains 52% of the total EU 27 content
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Executive Summary
0 50000 100000
Top 15 Vehicles
Jaguar XK(X150) Volvo C30(Y279) Volkswagen Up Ford Kuga(C394) Audi TT(AU324) Audi A3(AU370) Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Porsche Panamera(970) Lancia Ypsilon(846) Peugeot 5008(T87) Renault Clio(X98) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Jaguar XF(X250) Jaguar XJ(X351) Audi A7(AU573) Land Rover Range Rover(L405) Audi Q7(AU716) Volvo S60(Y283) Fiat 500(312) Mini Countryman(R60) Porsche Cayenne(E2) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Volkswagen Touran(VW368) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526) Honda Civic(2HC) Volkswagen Golf(VW370) Ford C-Max(C344) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221) Audi Q3(AU316) Audi A1(AU210) Volvo XC60(Y413) Fiat Panda(139) Peugeot 508(W2) Citroen C4(B7) BMW 7 (F01/F02) Land Rover Range Rover Toyota Yaris(850L) Citroen C3(A51) Opel Insignia(GM G3700) Renault Megane(X95) Audi A8(AU641) Audi Q5(AU416) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) BMW 1 (F20) Audi A4(AU481) Peugeot 208(A9) Volkswagen Passat(VW471) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Opel Astra(GM P3400) Audi A6(AU571) Ford Focus(C346) BMW 5 (F10) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) BMW 3 (F30)
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Executive Summary
Jaguar is the aluminum content leader in the sample. Fiat has the lowest aluminum content. Ducker believes that with the proper mix adjustment, these estimates, with the possible exception of Renault, are representative of each OEMs total 2012 production
400 350 300
Kilograms per Vehicle 342.7 292.1 275.9 226.3
Weighted Average 2012 Aluminum Content by OEM for the Sample Vehicles
218.4
126.8
125.5
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Executive Summary
A 2%
350
E 28%
B 16%
301
100
C 32% D 22%
1.22 million tons or 160.1 kg per vehicle of aluminum content for the whole sample by segment
E D C
50 00 A A/B B C D E
A B C D E
B A
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2012 Total EU
Hyundai Tata Toyota 1% 3% 4% GM 5% Fiat 8% Audi 7% Mercedes 8% BMW 8% Ford 10% All other 3% VW 19%
160kg/vehicle
Applying the sample content per OEM to the total EU production yields
144 kg/vehicle
BMW 13%
PSA 13%
Renault 11%
E 15%
A 6% B 22%
Applying the sample content per segment to the total EU production yields
E 8% D 16%
A 7%
This tells us that most of the difference between the sample and the EU total was simply due to OEM and vehicle mix not content
B 31%
D 22%
2012 Sample
160Kg/vehicle
C 35% C 34%
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2012 Total EU
145kg/vehicle
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Executive Summary
The non sample vehicles contain 24% less aluminum per vehicle than the sample vehicles. This is due primarily to OEM and mix differences, not content differences by segment for the sample and for the total production
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Executive Summary
2006 - 2012 EU Aluminum (kg) Content Increase
Wheels with Spares Chassis, Suspension & Steering with Knuckles Transmission & Driveline Engines with Mounts Bumper Beams and Crash Boxes
In order to make historical comparisons, these component categories had to be used
The total increase in EU light vehicle aluminum content from 2006 to 2012 is estimated at 19.2 kg The increase in aluminum content over the same period in North America is estimated at only 13 kg. This is 50% of the aluminum growth experienced in North America in the period 2000 to 2006 40% of the aluminum part growth (excluding wheels ) in the sample is structural components. Currently, the EU leads the world in the use of high tech aluminum automotive components
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Summary by Segment
Sample A Segment mounts PT
1% All other Parts 3% Heat Shields Other steering 3% and brakes 6% Crash Management 6% Driveline 1% Sun roofs 1% Wheels 24%
Sample B-Segment
PT mounts 1% Sun roofs 1% Arms, IP beams, Closures, Crash Management Knuckles, Driveline, Trim All other Parts 2% 0% 2% BIW 1% Heat Shields 3% Subframes 5% Other steering and brakes 6% Heat Exchangers 8% Wheels 26%
Transmission 18%
Other Engine 9%
Blocks 13%
Heads 17%
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
Heads 10%
Transmission 12%
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Summary by Segment
Sample A/B-Segment
PT mounts 1% Sun roofs 1% BIW Driveline, IP beams, Closures, 1% Arms, knuckles, Trim Crash Management All other Parts <1% 2% 2% Heat Shields Wheels 3% 26% Subframes 5% Other steering and brakes 6% Heat Exchangers 8%
Sample C-Segment
PT mounts 2% Sun roofs Driveline Trim 1% 2% All other Parts 1% 2% IP beams, BIW Arms Closures <1% 2% 3% Heat Shields Wheels 2% 21% Subframes 3% Crash Management 4% Knuckles 3% Other steering and brakes 5% Transmission 12% Heads 9% Heat Exchangers 9% Other Engine 11% Blocks 8% Transmission 12%
Other Engine 9%
Heads 11%
Blocks 13%
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
223.1 Thousand tons or 103 kg per vehicle of aluminum in the A/B Segment
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Summary by Segment
Sample D-Segment
PT mounts 2% All other Parts 1% Heat Shields 2% Trim Sun roofs 1% Driveline 1% BIW 2% Crash Management 3% 3% Arms 3% Knuckles 4% Closures 4% Other steering and brakes 5% Subframes 6% Blocks 7% IP beams 1%
Wheels 21%
The D segment in Europe is very similar in aluminum content to the D/E segment in North America. This segment is12% aluminum as a share of curb weight 50% of the vehicles have aluminum hoods and bumpers, and some vehicles have partial aluminum body structures Aluminum content in this segment is ripe for continued growth.
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
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Summary by Segment
Sample E Segment
Driveline 2% Heat Shields All other Parts 2% 1% Trim 1% Wheels Crash Management 2% 15%
Closures 13%
Subframes 5% Other steering and brakes 5% Heads 6% Heat Exchangers 7% Transmission 8% BIW 11%
Other Engine 9%
Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate
In totality, the E Segment is not the most important segment going forward, but for the last 15 years it has been the global benchmark for new aluminum structural applications in autos The average content for the sample and for the entire segment is near 300kg per vehicle Only U.S. pickup trucks as a vehicle segment are likely to ever rival this European segment for aluminum content 40% of the components in this segment, not including wheels, are high tech structural parts At 17% of curb weight, aluminum penetration is nearing the practical limit in this segment
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Summary by Segment
With the exception of the E Segment, the sample average segment content differences versus total EU and versus other regions are minimal compared to the OEM mix differences which cause most of the variation
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 00 A
350 300 250 200 150 103 100 50 0 A A/B B C D E
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301
290
128
A/B
E
350 290 300
A/B
Full Frame
301
290
A/B
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Summary by Segment
A look at the segment differences between Europe and North America
5000000 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0
30.0%
Units
Share
North America
Full Frame 22%
A/B 4%
C 17%
The big difference between European and North American light vehicle mix is the large share of A/B vehicles in Europe and the high share of D Segment and SUVs in North America. The big difference between the full frame use is not relevant for this study
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EU 27
A/B 27%
SUV 14%
E 8% D 13%
C 21%
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Rolled 14%
Cast 70%
1.22 Million Tons of aluminum for the sample segmented by product form
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Rolled 13%
Cast 73%
Rolled 14%
Cast 70%
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2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.
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Comments:
Regulations will require OEMs in their totality to reduce CO2 emissions by 40 grams per kilometer over the next eight years Average car curb weight (adjusted for new safety and comfort features) will decline by 5% between 2012 and 2025
Aluminum is 80% to 30% effective for weight reduction versus steel depending on the type of steel it replaces Aluminum indirectly provide another 30% weight savings. Advanced high strength steel and footprint reduction will provide the remaining 20%
Alternative powertrain acceptance will remain at less than 10% of the solution through 2025
Gasoline or diesel/electric hybrids or plug-in electric) acceptance is moving at a snails pace in Europe. Regulators are counting on a surge in acceptance, but the cost and inconvenience will inhibit consumers much more than the regulators anticipate
The estimates we have for similar requirements in the U.S. are relevant to Europe
The similarities between EU and U.S. car characteristics, their similar CO2 reduction targets by 2020 and the overlap of OEMS strategies provides insight on what will happen to aluminum growth in Europe over the next eight - ten years North American cars will need to add 40 kg of aluminum by 2020 and 64 kg by 2025
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2012 Values Curb Weight kg Footprint square meters kg/square meter Aluminum Content kg Aluminum kg/m2 CO2/kilometer 2020 CO2/km CO2 2012 - 2020 Delta 2025 CO2/km
U.S.Car 1435 4.2 342 145.6 34.7 163** 113** 50** 89**
U.S. Light Truck 2016 5 419 165 33 215** 163** 52** 126**
U.S. Combined 1743 4.55 383 156 34.3 183** 132** 51** 101**
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145
150
200 180
Model
180
144
160
140
140
150
135 131
136
120 100 80 60 40
130
125 121
120
115
20 0
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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For 50 years, Ducker Worldwide has enabled clients to navigate and thrive in a dynamic, global marketplace. Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and strategic consulting create valuable opportunities that deliver critical results. For more information regarding our strategic services, expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can help you, please contact one of our team members at +33 1 46 99 59 60 or visit our website at www.ducker.com
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