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EAA Aluminium penetration in cars Final Report

Advancing Growth March 13, 2012 Public version

This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC.

Introduction
The US arm of Ducker Worldwide has collected data on the growth and development of aluminium content in automotive light vehicle applications on a bi annual basis since 1991 For the first time, in 2011, Ducker Europe began to collect similar data for cars in Europe The study was conducted in two phases The first Phase of the methodology had the scope to gather internal information from EAA members as well as of Ducker internal sources on the chosen components In Phase II interviews with parts makers and OEMs in Europe have been conducted in order to get all the missing information from Phase I, confirm or correct already existing data and clarify contradictions Data is collected on a bottom-up basis, meaning the market has been analysied on an OEM, platform-by-platform and product-by-product basis Primary research with OEMs, automotive suppliers, aluminum producers and other expert sources The contents of this report are not developed to be utilized as a business planning document; it was created with a trend line, marketing and public relations frame work to help educate the public on automotive applications of aluminum in Europe Information contained within this report should be considered point in time; and can change rapidly along with several external variables

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Introduction
Ducker examined all the components on this page for this study with a heavy concentration on the components in red which were chosen by the EAA members
Engines
Blocks Cylinder heads Oil pans Intake manifolds Pistons Water pump housings Alternator cases Fuel rails Front covers Bed plates Powertrain Mounts Timing chain covers Accessory brackets Oil filter adapters Cam covers Thermostat housings Water outlet tubes Valve Plates

Steering
Steering Knuckles Column housings Rack & pinion housings Steering Wheels Ball joint yokes

Trim and Interiors


Sun roofs Sport racks Trim Wiper Arms Wiper motor housings Sun roof motor housings Starter motor housings Seat motor housings Seat pans Seat frames Seat tracks Seat belt spools and retractors Air bag canisters Computer housings Overhead rails DVD enclosures Running boards Heat Sinks

Transmissions
Automatic, CVT & Dual Clutch Transmission cases Transfer Case Power take off units Differential Carriers Drive shafts Yokes

Body and Closures


Complete body structures Partial Body Radiator supports Instrument panel structures Bumper beams Crash boxes Door intrusion beams Front ends Doors Hoods/bonnets Fender/wings Deck lids/boots Lift gates Tailgates Roofs Shock towers Truck bed rails Ladder Frames

Chassis and Suspension


Control arms Lateral links Sub-frames Cross members Cradles

Heat Transfer
Radiators Heater cores Transmission coolers Condensers Evaporators Compressors Housings Compressor scrolls Compressor pistons Connection hardware Oil coolers Receiver/dryers Heat shields

Wheels and Brakes


Wheels Brake calipers Master cylinders Brake pistons ABS housings Drums & rotors

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Introduction
These 57 vehicles were chosen by the EAA members for detailed analysis
Segm ent A Example Fiat 500(312) Fiat Panda(139) Audi A1(AU210) Audi TT(AU324) Citroen C3 Picas s o(A58) Citroen C3(A51) Lancia Yps ilon(846) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Peugeot 208(A9) Renault Clio(X98) Toyota Yaris (850L) Volks wagen Up Volks wagen Polo(VW250) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Audi Q3 (AU 316) Audi A3(AU370) BMW 1 (F20) Citroen C4(B7) Ford C-Max(C344) Ford Focus (C346) Ford Kuga Honda Civic(2HC) Jaguar XK(X150) Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Mini Countryman(R60) Opel As tra(GM P3400) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Peugeot 5008(T87) Renault Megane(X95) Volks wagen Golf(VW370) Volks wagen Touran(VW368) Volvo C30(Y279) Volvo XC60(Y413)
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Segment

Example Audi A4(AU481) Audi Q5(AU416) BMW 3 (F30) Mercedes -Benz B-Clas s (W246) Mercedes -Benz C-Clas s (W204) Opel Ins ignia(GM G3700) Peugeot 508(W2) Pors che Panam era(970) Volks wagen Pas s at(VW471) Volvo S60(Y283) Audi A6(AU571) Audi A7(AU573) Audi A8(AU641) Audi Q7(AU716) BMW 5 (F10) BMW 7 (F01/02) Jaguar XF(X250) Jaguar XJ(X351) Land Rover Ranger Rover (L405) Mercedes -Benz E-Clas s (W212) ) Mercedes -Benz S-Clas s (W221) Mercedes -Benz-S-Clas s (W222) Pors che Cayenne(E2) Volks wagen Touareg(VW526)

7,646,770 Vehicles Representing 44.4% of the 2012 EU forecast


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Introduction
One half of the total production of these OEMs is represented by the sample

2012 Sample Vehicles Segmented by OEM Sample Share of Total 2012 Units for These OEMs
Porsche Volvo 1% 2% Honda* Toyota* Tata 1% VW 3% 3% 14% Renault 5% Ford 7% Fiat 8% Audi 12% GM 10% BMW 13% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 79% 73% 52% 44% 44% 91% 62% 65% 40% 19% 35% 32% 92%

Mercedes 9% PSA 12%

7,646,770 Sample Vehicles


* only one vehicle in the sample
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OEM BMW GM Audi Mercedes PSA Fiat Renault

SampleUnits OEM SampleUnits 975,403 HondaCivic 111,766 783,274 Volvo 190,899 937,560 Porsche 81,670 698,611 Tata 187,188 929,086 Volkswagen 1,041,596 573,868 Ford 553,987 361,472 ToyotaYaris 220,390 GrandTotal 7,646,770

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Introduction
2012 EU Forecast
Hyundai 3% Tata 1% All other 3%

VW 19%

Toyota 4% GM 5% Fiat 8%

PSA 13%

Audi 7%

Ideally we would have put 50% of each OEMs anticipated 2012 production into the sample This does not take into account the selection criteria of picking only recently launched vehicles. 96% of the sample was launched in the last 62 months On this basis, the sample contains 56% of all the vehicles launched in the EU in the last 62 months
Sample Share Total EU Share

Mercedes 8% BMW 8%

Renault 11% Ford 10%

VW BMW Audi
PSA

14% 13% 12%


12%

19% 8% 7%
13%

GM

10%
9% 8% 7%

5%
8% 8% 10%

17,233,811 EU 27 Vehicles in 2012

Mercedes Fiat Ford

Renault
Toyota Tata All Other
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5%
3% 3% 4%

11%
4% 1% 6%

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Introduction
When compared to total 2012 EU light production, the sample is over weighted with D & E segment vehicles. The sample does not contain any full frame vehicles. These decisions had a negative effect on the total EU aluminum content versus the sample Sample Vehicles Split by Segment Total EU Vehicles Split by Segment
Other Full Full Size Full Frame Frame 2% 2%

E 15%

A 6%

E 8% B 22% D 16%

A 7%

B 31%

D 22%

C 35%

C 34%

7,646,770 Vehicles

17,232,935 Vehicles
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Kilograms per Sample Vehicle


100 200 300 400 500 600 0

Executive Summary

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Below average aluminum content

Aluminum content ranges from 74.5 kg for the Fiat 500 to 561 kg for the Land Rover Range Rover. The average is 160 kg for the sample vehicles

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Aluminum hoods and suspensions

Aluminum Intense

(Doors and /or partial body and suspensions)

Complete

Bodies and Suspensions

Fiat 500(312) Fiat Panda(139) Volkswagen Up Renault Clio(X98) Renault Megane(X95) Lancia Ypsilon(846) Toyota Yaris(850L) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Citroen C3(A51) Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Volkswagen Golf(VW370) Peugeot 208(A9) Opel Astra(GM P3400) Peugeot 5008(T87) Audi A1(AU210) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Ford C-Max(C344) Citroen C4(B7) BMW 1 (F20) Ford Focus(C346) Volkswagen Touran(VW368) Ford Kuga(C394) Volkswagen Passat(VW471) Mini Countryman(R60) Peugeot 508(W2) Honda Civic(2HC) Volvo C30(Y279) Audi A4(AU481) Opel Insignia(GM G3700) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) Audi A3(AU370) Volvo XC60(Y413) Audi Q3(AU316) Volvo S60(Y283) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) BMW 3 (F30) Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Audi Q5(AU416) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526) Jaguar XF(X250) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) Audi Q7(AU716) Porsche Cayenne(E2) Audi A6(AU571) BMW 5 (F10) Audi TT(AU324) Porsche Panamera(970) Audi A7(AU573) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221) BMW 7 (F01/F02) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W222) Jaguar XK(X150) Jaguar XJ(X351) Audi A8(AU641) Land Rover Range Rover(L405)

Executive Summary
A-Segment
Fiat Panda(139) Fiat 500(312) 2012 Units 237196 169151 22336 71610 295702 145125 383198 143234 202748 74964 220390 115943 88315 2012 Units 26700 117353 369718 199313 68630 164117 134499 260689 134708 2012 Units 19717 19169 42681 6224 59088 53061 kg/vehicle 75.5 74.5 269.7 150.6 124.3 119 102.3 102.8 109.1 86.2 96 98.2 78 kg/vehicle 306.9 228 198.4 202.9 184.3 166 175.6 147.1 148.6 kg/vehicle

C-Segment
Jaguar XK(X150) Land Rover Range Rover Evoque(L538) Volvo XC60(Y413) Audi Q3(AU316) Audi A3(AU370) Audi A4(AU481) Volvo C30(Y279) Honda Civic(2HC) Citroen C4(B7) BMW 1 (F20) Mini Countryman(R60) Volkswagen Touran(VW368) Ford Kuga(C394) Ford C-Max(C344) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Ford Focus(C346) Peugeot 5008(T87) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Volkswagen Golf(VW370) Opel Astra(GM P3400) Renault Megane(X95)

B-Segment
Audi TT(AU324) Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Peugeot 208(A9) Audi A1(AU210) Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Citroen C3(A51) Volkswagen Up Toyota Yaris(850L) Renault Clio(X98) Lancia Ypsilon(846)

D-Segment
Porsche Panamera(970) Audi Q5(AU416) BMW 3 (F30) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) Volvo S60(Y283) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) Peugeot 508(W2) Volkswagen Passat(VW471) Opel Insignia(GM G3700)

2012 Units 5304 99447 100246 91888 43994 222021 22023 111766 150235 216375 98413 109670 46099 131666 79206 376222 73892 140453 140323 364879 245529 2012 Units 33007 231809 168436 54970 50719 275896 43551 73152

kg/vehicle 453 194.5 203.7 200.9 169.6 139 151.8 141.3 133.7 114.6 165.5 141.4 129.3 133.9 112.5 131.9 109.5 130.3 126.8 106.3 105.1 kg/vehicle

E-Segment
Audi A7(AU573) BMW 5 (F10) Audi A6(AU571) Porsche Cayenne(E2) Audi Q7(AU716) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) Jaguar XF(X250) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526)

E-Segment
Land Rover Range Rover(L405) Jaguar XJ(X351) Audi A8(AU641) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W222) BMW 7 (F01/F02) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221)

561.3 546.3 538.2 388.0 353.4 331.7

322.3 307.3 287.0 279.4 263.2 254.3 238.5 219.2

Total
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10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Tons

The 2012 sample aluminum content is 1.224 million tons. The BMW 3 Series, BMW 5 Series and the Mercedes E Class are 17% of the total. 15 vehicles represent over 50% of all the sample tons. Total EU 27 aluminum content is estimated to be 2.4 million tons. The sample contains 52% of the total EU 27 content

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Executive Summary

0 50000 100000

Top 15 Vehicles

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Jaguar XK(X150) Volvo C30(Y279) Volkswagen Up Ford Kuga(C394) Audi TT(AU324) Audi A3(AU370) Citroen C3 Picasso(A58) Porsche Panamera(970) Lancia Ypsilon(846) Peugeot 5008(T87) Renault Clio(X98) Alfa Romeo Gulietta Jaguar XF(X250) Jaguar XJ(X351) Audi A7(AU573) Land Rover Range Rover(L405) Audi Q7(AU716) Volvo S60(Y283) Fiat 500(312) Mini Countryman(R60) Porsche Cayenne(E2) Opel Meriva(GM S4470) Volkswagen Touran(VW368) Opel Zafira(GM A3370) Volkswagen Touareg(VW526) Honda Civic(2HC) Volkswagen Golf(VW370) Ford C-Max(C344) Mercedes-Benz S-Class(W221) Audi Q3(AU316) Audi A1(AU210) Volvo XC60(Y413) Fiat Panda(139) Peugeot 508(W2) Citroen C4(B7) BMW 7 (F01/F02) Land Rover Range Rover Toyota Yaris(850L) Citroen C3(A51) Opel Insignia(GM G3700) Renault Megane(X95) Audi A8(AU641) Audi Q5(AU416) Mercedes-Benz B-Class(W246) BMW 1 (F20) Audi A4(AU481) Peugeot 208(A9) Volkswagen Passat(VW471) Mercedes-Benz C-Class(W204) Volkswagen Polo(VW250) Opel Astra(GM P3400) Audi A6(AU571) Ford Focus(C346) BMW 5 (F10) Mercedes-Benz E-Class(W212) BMW 3 (F30)

2012 Tons of Sample Aluminum Content

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Executive Summary
Jaguar is the aluminum content leader in the sample. Fiat has the lowest aluminum content. Ducker believes that with the proper mix adjustment, these estimates, with the possible exception of Renault, are representative of each OEMs total 2012 production
400 350 300
Kilograms per Vehicle 342.7 292.1 275.9 226.3

Weighted Average 2012 Aluminum Content by OEM for the Sample Vehicles

250 200 150 100 50 0

218.4

218.2 181.6 140.1 130.3

126.8

125.5

119.6 96 91.1 82.6

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Executive Summary
A 2%
350

E 28%

B 16%

300 250 200 150

2012 Sample Aluminum Content by Segment


184 135 103 109 75

301

100

C 32% D 22%
1.22 million tons or 160.1 kg per vehicle of aluminum content for the whole sample by segment
E D C

50 00 A A/B B C D E

2012 Sample Aluminum Segment Share of Curb Weight


17% 12% 10% 9% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Segment Curb Weight kg Aluminum kg

Percent 8% 9% 10% 12% 17%


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A B C D E

930 1183 1358 1534 1795

75 109 135 184 301

B A

11.5% of curb weight for the Sample Is aluminum

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Executive Summary 2012 Sample


Volvo 2% Honda* Jaguar Toyota* 1% 1% Porsche 3% Land Rover 1% VW 2% 14% Renault 5% Ford 7% Fiat 8% Mercedes 9% GM 10% PSA 12% Audi 12%

2012 Total EU
Hyundai Tata Toyota 1% 3% 4% GM 5% Fiat 8% Audi 7% Mercedes 8% BMW 8% Ford 10% All other 3% VW 19%

160kg/vehicle
Applying the sample content per OEM to the total EU production yields

144 kg/vehicle

BMW 13%

PSA 13%

Renault 11%

E 15%

A 6% B 22%

Applying the sample content per segment to the total EU production yields

Other Full Full Size Full Frame Frame 2% 2%

E 8% D 16%

A 7%

This tells us that most of the difference between the sample and the EU total was simply due to OEM and vehicle mix not content
B 31%

D 22%

2012 Sample
160Kg/vehicle
C 35% C 34%
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2012 Total EU
145kg/vehicle
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Executive Summary
The non sample vehicles contain 24% less aluminum per vehicle than the sample vehicles. This is due primarily to OEM and mix differences, not content differences by segment for the sample and for the total production

Total EU 27 aluminum content of 140 kg

Sample aluminum content of 160 kg

Non sample aluminum content of 124 kg

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Executive Summary
2006 - 2012 EU Aluminum (kg) Content Increase
Wheels with Spares Chassis, Suspension & Steering with Knuckles Transmission & Driveline Engines with Mounts Bumper Beams and Crash Boxes
In order to make historical comparisons, these component categories had to be used

6.7 5.6 0.9 2.2 0.7 0.3

Heat Shields Body & IP Beams Closures Brakes Heat Exchangers

0.7 1 0.2 0.7 0.2


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

The total increase in EU light vehicle aluminum content from 2006 to 2012 is estimated at 19.2 kg The increase in aluminum content over the same period in North America is estimated at only 13 kg. This is 50% of the aluminum growth experienced in North America in the period 2000 to 2006 40% of the aluminum part growth (excluding wheels ) in the sample is structural components. Currently, the EU leads the world in the use of high tech aluminum automotive components

All Other Components including Trim and Sun roofs

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Summary by Segment
Sample A Segment mounts PT
1% All other Parts 3% Heat Shields Other steering 3% and brakes 6% Crash Management 6% Driveline 1% Sun roofs 1% Wheels 24%

Sample B-Segment
PT mounts 1% Sun roofs 1% Arms, IP beams, Closures, Crash Management Knuckles, Driveline, Trim All other Parts 2% 0% 2% BIW 1% Heat Shields 3% Subframes 5% Other steering and brakes 6% Heat Exchangers 8% Wheels 26%

Other Engine 10%

Heat Exchangers 10%

Transmission 18%

Other Engine 9%

Blocks 13%

Heads 17%

30.5 Thousand tons or 75.1 kg per vehicle of aluminum in the A Segment

Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate

Heads 10%

Transmission 12%

192.5 Thousand tons or 109 kg per vehicle of aluminum in the B Segment


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Summary by Segment
Sample A/B-Segment
PT mounts 1% Sun roofs 1% BIW Driveline, IP beams, Closures, 1% Arms, knuckles, Trim Crash Management All other Parts <1% 2% 2% Heat Shields Wheels 3% 26% Subframes 5% Other steering and brakes 6% Heat Exchangers 8%

Sample C-Segment
PT mounts 2% Sun roofs Driveline Trim 1% 2% All other Parts 1% 2% IP beams, BIW Arms Closures <1% 2% 3% Heat Shields Wheels 2% 21% Subframes 3% Crash Management 4% Knuckles 3% Other steering and brakes 5% Transmission 12% Heads 9% Heat Exchangers 9% Other Engine 11% Blocks 8% Transmission 12%

Other Engine 9%

Heads 11%

Blocks 13%

Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate

223.1 Thousand tons or 103 kg per vehicle of aluminum in the A/B Segment
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388.3 Thousand tons or 135.3 kg per vehicle of aluminum in the C Segment


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Summary by Segment

Sample D-Segment
PT mounts 2% All other Parts 1% Heat Shields 2% Trim Sun roofs 1% Driveline 1% BIW 2% Crash Management 3% 3% Arms 3% Knuckles 4% Closures 4% Other steering and brakes 5% Subframes 6% Blocks 7% IP beams 1%

Wheels 21%

Other Engine 11%

Transmission 9% Heads 7% Heat Exchangers 9%

The D segment in Europe is very similar in aluminum content to the D/E segment in North America. This segment is12% aluminum as a share of curb weight 50% of the vehicles have aluminum hoods and bumpers, and some vehicles have partial aluminum body structures Aluminum content in this segment is ripe for continued growth.

271.8 Thousand tons or 184.2 kg per vehicle of aluminum in the D Segment


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Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate

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Summary by Segment
Sample E Segment
Driveline 2% Heat Shields All other Parts 2% 1% Trim 1% Wheels Crash Management 2% 15%

Other steering and brakes 3% Arms 3% Knuckles 4%

Closures 13%

Subframes 5% Other steering and brakes 5% Heads 6% Heat Exchangers 7% Transmission 8% BIW 11%

Other Engine 9%

340.9 Thousand tons or 301.3 kg per vehicle of aluminum in the E Segment

Note: The total tons is simply the kg/vehicle multiplied by the vehicles in the sample or the total EU production whichever is appropriate

In totality, the E Segment is not the most important segment going forward, but for the last 15 years it has been the global benchmark for new aluminum structural applications in autos The average content for the sample and for the entire segment is near 300kg per vehicle Only U.S. pickup trucks as a vehicle segment are likely to ever rival this European segment for aluminum content 40% of the components in this segment, not including wheels, are high tech structural parts At 17% of curb weight, aluminum penetration is nearing the practical limit in this segment
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Summary by Segment
With the exception of the E Segment, the sample average segment content differences versus total EU and versus other regions are minimal compared to the OEM mix differences which cause most of the variation
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 00 A
350 300 250 200 150 103 100 50 0 A A/B B C D E
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2012 EU Sample Average of 160 kg


184 75 103 109 135

301

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2012 EU Total Average of 140 kg


175 70 96 105 130

290

128

A/B

E
350 290 300

A/B

Full Frame

EU Sample160 kg versus Total 140 kg


72% of delta is mix and 28% is content
Sample Total 135 75 96 70 109 105 130 184 175

301

EU Total 140 kg/v and NA Car 145 kg/v


North America EU 175 110 135 130 96 151 190

290

250 200 150 100 50 0

A/B

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Summary by Segment
A look at the segment differences between Europe and North America
5000000 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0

Same number of D+E Cars

30.0%

Units

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% North America EU 27 5.0% 0.0% 10.0%

Share

North America
Full Frame 22%

A/B 4%

C 17%

MPV 6% D 20% SUV 26% E 5%

The big difference between European and North American light vehicle mix is the large share of A/B vehicles in Europe and the high share of D Segment and SUVs in North America. The big difference between the full frame use is not relevant for this study
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Full Frame MPV 6% 11%

EU 27
A/B 27%

SUV 14%

E 8% D 13%

C 21%

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Product Form Analysis


Rolled, extruded and forged wrought products were a surprisingly high 30% share of the total aluminum content in the sample. These product forms are estimated to be 27% of the total content of 2.4 million aluminum content tons

Product Forms for the Sample of 7.65 Million Vehicles


Extruded 11% Forged Cobapress 4% 1%

Rolled 14%

Cast 70%

1.22 Million Tons of aluminum for the sample segmented by product form
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Product Form Analysis


Compared to the sample wrought product total of 30%, the 2012 Total EU wrought product share is 27% and the 2010 wrought product share is 26%

Total EU 2010 134 kg/vehicle


Extruded 10% Forged 3%

Total EU 2012 140 kg/vehicle


Extruded 10% Forged 4%

Rolled 13% Cast 74%

Rolled 13%

2012 Sample 160 kg/vehicle


Extruded 11% Forged 5%

Cast 73%

Rolled 14%

Cast 70%

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Emissions and Fuel Economy Analysis


Global fleet CO2 emissions performance and current or proposed standards adjusted for the European test cycle
270
US-LDV Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal CaliforniaLDV Canada-LDV EU Japan

Grams CO2 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC

250 230 210 190

China S. Korea Australia

170 150 130 110 90 2000


China 2020: 117 US 2025:107

Japan 2020: 105 EU 2020: 95

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Europe has very aggressive targets for CO2 reduction

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.

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Market Drivers Future Aluminum Content Analysis


Ducker has assumed several characteristics about the future in order to determine the most likely aluminum light vehicle content in Europe by 2015, 2020 and beyond Assumptions:
100 kg of weight reduction saves 8 grams of CO2 per kilometer. This is a 5% reduction

Comments:
Regulations will require OEMs in their totality to reduce CO2 emissions by 40 grams per kilometer over the next eight years Average car curb weight (adjusted for new safety and comfort features) will decline by 5% between 2012 and 2025

Aluminum will provide 50% to 75% of this weight reduction

Aluminum is 80% to 30% effective for weight reduction versus steel depending on the type of steel it replaces Aluminum indirectly provide another 30% weight savings. Advanced high strength steel and footprint reduction will provide the remaining 20%

Alternative powertrain acceptance will remain at less than 10% of the solution through 2025

Gasoline or diesel/electric hybrids or plug-in electric) acceptance is moving at a snails pace in Europe. Regulators are counting on a surge in acceptance, but the cost and inconvenience will inhibit consumers much more than the regulators anticipate

The estimates we have for similar requirements in the U.S. are relevant to Europe

The similarities between EU and U.S. car characteristics, their similar CO2 reduction targets by 2020 and the overlap of OEMS strategies provides insight on what will happen to aluminum growth in Europe over the next eight - ten years North American cars will need to add 40 kg of aluminum by 2020 and 64 kg by 2025

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Future Aluminum Content Analysis


Except for the CO2 emissions, the similarities for vehicle characteristics and 2012 aluminum content between the EU 27 and the U.S./NA are much greater than the differences (see below). Cars in the U.S have to reduce CO2 by 30% by 2020, and 45% by 2025. The required reduction in Europe is 29% by 2020, and 48% by 2025. Cars in North America and Europe should add similar quantities of aluminum over the next 8 years on a kilogram per square meter basis, and similar quantities from 2020 to 2025 EU Light Vehicles 1372 3.97 346 140 35.3 135* 95* 40* 70***
***Ducker Forecast for 2025. As yet, there is no EU regulation for 2025

2012 Values Curb Weight kg Footprint square meters kg/square meter Aluminum Content kg Aluminum kg/m2 CO2/kilometer 2020 CO2/km CO2 2012 - 2020 Delta 2025 CO2/km

U.S.Car 1435 4.2 342 145.6 34.7 163** 113** 50** 89**

U.S. Light Truck 2016 5 419 165 33 215** 163** 52** 126**

U.S. Combined 1743 4.55 383 156 34.3 183** 132** 51** 101**

*NEDC Test Cycle


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**EPA CAF Test Cycle

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Future Aluminum Content Analysis


Analysis of the cost/benefit of lightweighting with EU Regulation EC 443/2009 The table below shows that with a 95 / g CO2 penalty every kg of light weighting is worth 7.6 with a footprint based legislation and 3.26 with a mass based legislation. The reason for the big change is that while a 100 kg weight reduction actually saves 8 g and with a footprint based regulation moves you 8 g closer to the target, it only moves you 3.43 g closer with a mass based regulation. Indeed with a mass based regulation each 100 kg of light weighting means a 4.57g tougher target. With a footprint based regulation the target does not shift if the mass is changing. Given that the cost for light weighting with aluminium is normally in the range of 2-8 /kg (depending on the application). Obviously a cost/benefit calculation for aluminium light weighting will have a better chance for positive results with a footprint based regulation than with a mass based regulation.

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Future Aluminum Content Analysis


A previous short term trend analysis predicted 144 kilograms of aluminum content by 2015. The current trend analysis and market evidence supports a forecast of 150 kg per vehicle in 2015, and the theoretical CO2 based analysis supports 180 kg by 2020
150

145

2006 Forecast for 2015 2012 Forecast for 2015

150

200 180

2012 Forecast 2015 - 2020


Market Study Estimate
140 134 121

Model

180

144
160

140
140

150

135 131

136
120 100 80 60 40

130

125 121

120

115

20 0

110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Future Aluminum Content Analysis


Ducker believes the aluminum additions in the A/B and C segments are more important than the additions to the D and E segments. Without the smaller vehicles, aluminum content can not get to 180 kg per vehicle Required Aluminum Additions to Raise Aluminum Content by 40 kg
350 300 Kilograms per Vehicle 250 200 150 100 50 0 A/B C D E Full Frame Total 34
175 130 96 128 140

15 Added by 2020 2012 35 55 40


290

15

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This concludes our report. Thank you.


This presentation was prepared by Ducker Research SAS. Opinions and estimates constitute judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Any interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client. Reproduction without the explicit consent of Ducker Research SAS is strictly prohibited.

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