Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| December 27, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104view:

D Vijiya Rao - Research Analyst vijiya.d@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6134view

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| December 27, 2012

International Commodities
Overview
S&P CS Composite-20 House Price Index (HPI) increased to 4.3 percent in October. Richmond Manufacturing Index declined to 5 mark in December. Asian markets are trading on a firm note on the back of speculation that the new Japanese government might thrust the central bank of the nation to infuse cash into the economy to boost the growth. Standard & Poor's (S&P)/ Case-Shiller (CS) Composite-20 House Price Index (HPI) increased to 4.3 percent in October as against a rise of 3 percent a month ago. Richmond Manufacturing Index declined by 4 points to 5-mark in December from earlier rise of 9-level in November.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot)
54.83

as on 26 December, 2012

Prev day
0.2

w-o-w
0.1

m-o-m
1.4

y-o-y
-3.9

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3223

0.3

-0.1

1.9

1.3

Dollar Index

79.67

-0.1

0.5

-0.7

#N/A

US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and 0.1 percent lower. Worries over the US fiscal cliff issue caused risk aversion and increased the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index thereby strengthening the index. However, with US President Mr. Barack Obama returning early from the Christmas vacations to resume talks over the fiscal issue caused optimism over the resolution of the issue. This exerted downside pressure on the index towards the end of the session. US equities settled with negative bias in yesterdays session. Equities witnessed subdued trade due to worries over the fiscal cliff issue and lower participation due to Christmas vacations. US fiscal cliff issue is nearing the deadline. However, favorable economic data from the nation cushioned sharp fall. The index touched an intra-day low of 79.47 and closed at 79.6 Tuesday. The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.2 percent on Tuesday taking cues from firm Asian market sentiments along with weakness in the DX in the later part of the trade. Sustained dollar selling by importers and continued foreign institutional inflows caused appreciation in the currency in yesterdays session. The rupee closed at 54.83 after touching a high of 54.80 on Tuesday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 23,316.90 crores till 26th December 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. th 1,26,588.90 crores till December 26 2012.

NIFTY

5905.6

0.4

-0.4

4.8

23.6

SENSEX

19417.5

0.5

-0.3

4.7

21.6

DJIA

13114.59

-0.2

-1.0

1.1

#N/A

S&P

1419.8

-0.5

-1.1

1.0

12.2

Source: Reuters

Euro ended 0.3 percent higher on Tuesday. Most of the markets in the Europe region remained closed due to Christmas vacations. Weakness in the DX also appreciated the currency. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.3254 and closed at 1.3223 on Tuesday.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| December 27, 2012

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Feb13) MCX Gold (Feb13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz
1659.8 0.1 30365.0 -0.6

as on 26 December, 2012 Prev day

0.2

Spot gold prices swung between gains and losses and settled 0.2 percent higher. Worries over the US fiscal cliff issues created bearish market sentiments while expectation of more stimulus announcement by the bank of Japan supported an upside in the gold prices. Weakness in the DX also acted as a supportive factor for the gold prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $ 1,667.51/oz and closed at $ 1659.8 per ounce on Tuesday. On the MCX, Gold February contract ended 0.5 percent lower on account of appreciation in the Indian rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs. 30,698/10 gms on Tuesday after touching a low of Rs. 30,661/ 10gms.

Last
1659.8

WoW
-0.4

MoM
-5.1

YoY
3.4

-0.8

-6.3

10.6

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

-0.4

-5.1

#N/A

$/oz Rs /10 gms

30698.0 -0.5 -0.4 -5.1 10.5

Silver
Spot silver prices rose 0.3 percent taking cues from trend in the spot gold prices. Weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the silver prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $ 30.2/oz and closed at $ 30 per oz on Tuesday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices fell 0.4 percent and closed at Rs. 57,472/kg on Tuesday and touched an intraday low of Rs. 57,270/ kg. Appreciation in the Indian rupee also pressurized silver prices on MCX. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot -Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Mar13) MCX Silver (Mar13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg $/oz
2998.3 0.5 -3.4 57600.0 #N/A -1.0 #N/A -4.3 #N/A

Source: Reuters

as on 26 December, 2012 WoW

-3.3

Last
30.0

Prev day
0.3

MoM
-12.1

YoY
3.2

-10.6 #N/A -12.2

9.7 #N/A #N/A

Outlook
In the intra-day, we expect precious metals to remain volatile as the investors are adopting a cautious approach as the US fiscal cliff issue remains unresolved yet while US lawmakers resume talks over the same which is nearing the deadline. Weakness in the DX is likely to support an upside in the gold prices. In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Rupee will exert downside pressure on the MCX precious metal.

$/ oz
57472.0 -0.4 -3.6 -9.8 8.2

Rs / kg
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Mar13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg

valid for December 27, 2012 Support 1653/1649 30630/30550 29.90/29.75 57200/56950 Resistance 1661/1667 30780/30880 30.15/30.40 57700/58150

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| December 27, 2012

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices gained by 2.7 percent taking cues from expectations that US President Barack Obama will resume talks to avoid spending cuts and tax gains which can threat the economy. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $91.30/bbl and closed at $91.08/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 1.5 percent and closed at Rs.4,983/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5,008/bbl on Wednesday. However, appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Feb13) ICE Brent Crude (Feb13) MCX Crude (Jan12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last
90.7 110.2 91.0

as on 26 December,2012 WoW
1.8 -0.8 1.6

Prev. day
2.7 -0.6 2.7

MoM
3.9 -1.4 3.7

YoY
#N/A -0.1 #N/A

$/bbl
111.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 #N/A

$/bbl
4983.0 1.5 0.7 1.6 -5.8

Rs/bbl
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending on 21st December 2012. Gasoline stocks are expected to rise by 0.4 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to fall by 0.9 million barrels for the same week.
Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Dec 12) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.372 186.2

(% change)

as on 26 December, 2012

Prev. day 0.78 0.70

WoW 1.57 1.75

MoM -9.60 -9.74

YoY 8.29 12.99

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Nymex Crude Oil

Outlook In the intra-day we expect crude oil prices to trade with a firm note as talks amongst the US law makers resume to avert the $600 billion tax increases and spending cuts which would commence on January 1st 2013. Weakness in the DX might support an upside in the crude oil prices. In the domestic market appreciation in the rupee is likely to cap gains in the crude oil prices on MCX.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Jan 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl

valid for December 27, 2012

Technical Chart Nymex Natural Gas

Support 90.30/89.40 4950/490 Resistance 91.60/92.30 5020/5060

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| December 27, 2012

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack on MCX traded on a firm note taking cues from the firm Asian market sentiments and expectation of further stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan to boost the economic growth of the nation. London Metal Exchange remained closed due to observance of Boxing Day. Appreciation in the rupee however capped gains in the MCX prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Feb13) LME Aluminum (3 month) $/tonne
2078.8 -0.2 -1.4 5.0 3.0

as on 26 December, 2012 WoW

-2.9

Last
7818.0

Prev. day
-0.4

MoM
0.5

YoY
2.6

$/tonne

Rs/kg
438.9 0.6 -0.1 1.2 7.8

Copper
Copper prices on MCX gained 0.6 percent on Tuesday. Copper prices remained firm on expectations that the demand might improve due to stimulus measures announced in Japan and positive data from the US and China in the preceding weeks indicating that the economies are on the path of recovery. Copper prices on MCX touched an intra-day high of Rs. 440 per kg and closed at Rs. 438.9 per kg on Tuesday

MCX Aluminum (Dec12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Dec12) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Dec12) LME Zinc

Rs /kg
112.6 0.2 -0.1 1.9 6.4

$/tonne
17315.0 -0.5 -2.3 4.1 -6.8

Rs /kg
949.9 0.0 -2.0 3.4 -3.7

$/tonne
2312.5 0.4 0.2 5.1 14.2

Rs /kg
126.5 0.0 -0.4 4.1 19.4

$/tonne
2071.5 -0.4 -0.9 5.9 11.6

Outlook From the intraday perspective, the base metal prices are expected to gain as positive data from the US and China is showcasing that the demand might improve thereby supporting an upside in the industrial metals. Resumption of talks over the US fiscal cliff issue today might also support an upside in the prices. Weakness in the DX is also likely to add to the gains. In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Indian rupee will restrict gains in the metal prices on MCX.

(3 month) MCX Zinc (Dec12) Rs /kg

112.6

0.1

0.2

2.9

14.6

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 24 December
317350 5232125 138732 1224625 329150
th

21 December
312400 5241525 139098 1227275 330550

st

Actual Change 4,950 -9,400 -366 -2,650 -1,400

(%) Change 1.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4

Source: Reuters

Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Feb13 MCX Zinc Dec12 MCX Lead Dec12 MCX Aluminum Dec12 MCX Nickel Dec12 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg

valid for December 27, 2012 Support 436/433 111.8/111 125.8/125 112/111.4 942/934 Resistance 440/442 113.2/114 127.3/128 113.2/113.9 954/964

Lead

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| December 27, 2012

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator Nationwide HPI m/m BBA Mortgage Approvals Unemployment Claims CB Consumer Confidence New Home Sales

Country UK UK US US US

Time (IST) 27 30
th th

Actual -

Forecast 0.1% 34.6K 365K 70.3 382K

Previous 0.0% 33.0K 361K 73.7 368K

Impact Medium Medium High High High

3:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm 8:30pm

www.angelcommodities.com