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News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton
Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132
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Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Government may not be able to roll out GST before 2014 polls
Even as Finance Minister P Chidambaram has been holding out hope for an early rollout of the Goods & Services Tax (GST), some Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - ruled states like Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, still opposed to the indirect tax regime, could pour cold water on his plan to bring it before the general elections, scheduled for 2014. Two sub- committees, set up by the government to resolve the issues of compensation to states for revenue loss on account of a reduction in central sales tax and the final design of GST, are also likely to miss the December 31 deadline for giving their reports. Madhya Pradesh Finance Minister Raghavji says his state will support GST, provided the Centre agrees to a model suggested by it. Though GST is expected to be both central and state tax on a common pool of goods and services, with some flexibility, Madhya Pradesh has been insisting states should be allowed to collect service tax and the Centre should not get into areas already taxed by states. Madhya Pradesh, with some other states, has also been asking for more flexibility in altering tax rates, while the Centre wants a uniform GST rate across the country. The finance minister of a state said there had not been much headway in the talks between the Centre and states and the subcommittees might have to be given more time to complete their reports.
(Source: Business Standard)
Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz
.Source: Reuters
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures continued its downward trend on Saturday on higher acreage expectations and rising imports of Australian Chana. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.87% and 0.89% lower on Saturday. Sentiments have also turned negative on the back of fresh arrivals of new crop from Karnataka and AP. Although the quantity so far received is negligible, but is expected to improve in the coming weeks.
Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3850 3806 Prev day -1.87 -0.89
as on Dec 29, 2012 % change WoW MoM -6.56 -13.22 -5.51 -10.17 YoY 15.83 15.47
Sowing progress
Total pulses acreage as on 28 December 2012 stood at 132.52 lakh st hectares, down marginally by 1.2% yoy. As on 21 December, pulses acreage was lower by 0.9 percent. (Source: PIB) Chana sowing is however higher in Rajasthan, where it is up by 4% at 14.57 lakh hectares. In Maharashtra Chana acreage is up at 10 lakh ha as th th on 21 Dec, 2012. While in AP it is up at 6.64 lakh ha as on 19 Dec. (Source: State farm dept)
th
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Jan Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support
3770-3790
Trade Scenario
USDA revealed that Myanmar beans and pulses export is up by 56 per cent to 110498 MT as compared with same period in last year. Out of the total export, 73 percent (80721 MT) was exported to India followed by Singapore (11316 MT). (Source: Agriwatch dated Dec 27) In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.
Outlook
During the intraday, are expected to continue to trade downwards as sufficient supplies amid higher shipments and expectations of better output next season may exert downside pressure on Chana prices. Harvesting of new crop have commenced in AP and Karnataka. In Maharashtra arrivals would commence in January and gradually increase February onwards once the arrivals from MP begin.
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Indian sugar futures continued to trade lower on Saturday extending previous days losses and settled 0.22% lower on Saturday on account of sufficient supplies in the domestic markets and subdued demand. The government is planning to remove quantitative restrictions on sugar exports and imports and will use tariffs to regulate trade as part of a new liberalized policy for the sector. With lower sales realization and higher sugarcane payment to farmers, ISMA has already requested government to increase the import duties on raw sugar from current level to the normal rate of 60%, so as to avoid cane price arrears during the season. Government has allocated total 70 lac tons of non-levy sugar quota for Dec-March 2012-13 period which is higher from 59.5 lac tons last year. Raw sugar futures on ICE as well as Liffe white sugar settled 0.08% and 0.15% lower on Friday on account of supply glut in the global markets. According to Unica, Brazil's 2012-2013 center-south sugar output is expected to reach 34.05 million tonnes, an estimate 4.1% higher than its 32.7 million tonnes September forecast.
Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures
Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Jan'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3264
as on Dec 29, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.28 -0.74 MoM -5.28 YoY 11.12
Rs/qtl
3243
-0.22
-0.67
-2.26
11.37
Source: Reuters
International Prices
Unit $/tonne $/tonne Last 522 431.56
as on Dec 28, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -0.08 -0.15 0.81 0.99 MoM 2.47 1.41 YoY -13.29 -16.65
.Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Jan NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support
3225-3235
Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to trade on a negative note today account of sufficient supplies in both the domestic as well as global markets. However, a sharp downside may by restricted on expectations government may remove quantitative restrictions on sugar import/export.
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Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures traded on a flat note on Saturday. The spot settled marginally higher by 0.36% while the Futures settled marginally lower by 0.02% on Saturday.
Arrivals in the domestic markets remained at 2.5 lakh bags, while demand is comparatively lower amid subdued overseas demand. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lakh tn for 2012-13. Exports of soy meal rose to 517,103 tonnes in Nov from 3.97 lakh tn year ago. Overall oil meal exports in the first eight months of the year beginning April fell to 2.4 mn tn from 3 mn tn a year ago.
Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Jan '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Jan '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3310 3242 711.8 704.4
as on Dec 29, 2012 % Change Prev day 0.36 -0.02 0.10 0.23 WoW -0.12 -1.35 -0.98 -0.02 MoM 0.58 -0.89 -4.06 -3.61 YoY 33.20 30.65 -2.20 -2.50
International Markets
Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell around 0.4% Thursday on expectations of weak export sales data. Trade expects USDA today to show export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest reporting week at 100,000 to 300,000 tonnes. Net sales of 619,400 MT for the 2012/2013 marketing year down 53 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4week average. Last week, private exporters reported the cancellation of 540,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans sold to China - the biggest cancellation by the world's top importer of the oilseed in at least 14 years. Brazil's government food supply agency Conab forecast the soybean crop at a record 82.6 million tonnes.
Source: Reuters
as on Dec 28, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTJan'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTJan'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1424 48.94 Prev day 0.37 1.35 WoW 1.08 2.15 MoM -1.74 -2.35
Source: Reuters
as on Dec 29, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.72 -0.02 7.54 2.70
Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Jan '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Dec '12 Futures
MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg
Source: Reuters
RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Jan'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4249 4189 Prev day -0.02 0.41
Outlook
Soybean complex may recover in the initial part of the session today on account of short coverings. However, prices may again come under downside pressure on account of weak demand. Mustard seed prices trade on a positive note today as sentiments remain positive amid tight supplies till the fresh crop arrives in February. Palm oil may continue to trade with a positive bias on expectations of supply disruptions in Malaysia caused by monsoon driven floods. Also, export duty cut may reduce Malaysian palm oil stocks.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Jan NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Jan Futures RM Seed NCDEX Jan Futures CPO MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl
valid for Dec 31, 2012 Support 696-700 3190-3220 4130-4160 435-438.50 Resistance 709-714 3260-3300 4210-4230 444-448
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Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a flat note with a negative bias on Saturday. Prices have corrected as Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 5,000 tonnes. The six warehouses have also been sealed. Harvesting of the fresh crop has commenced and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Arrivals of the fresh crop have also pressurized prices. However, winter demand coupled with low stocks in the domestic markets has supported prices at lower levels. FMC is probing into complaints against movement in the pepper market which has pressurized prices. Better output expectations in the domestic as well as the international markets have also pressurized prices over the last couple of weeks. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.15% higher while the Futures settled 0.12% lower on Saturday. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,200/tn(C&F Europe), while Vietnam was offering Austa at $7,000/tn, Brazil Austa at $6,000-6,500/tn, and Indonesia Austa at $6,500/tn (FOB).
Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 37806 34010 % Change Prev day 0.15 -0.12
as on Dec 29, 2012 WoW -0.82 -2.28 MoM -1.28 -11.12 YoY 13.63 4.04
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Feb Futures Unit Rs/qtl
Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a negative to bearish note today. Reports that FSSAI has sealed huge quantity of pepper are expected to maintain pressure on the prices. Good arrivals coupled with higher output expectations, as well as reports that FMC is probing into complaints against price movement may pressurize prices. However, winter buying may support prices at lower levels.
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Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures resumed its downward on Saturday tracking Improvement in the ongoing sowing coupled with weak domestic demand. Fresh export enquiries coupled with demand from stockists and masala millers had boosted the prices over the last couple of days. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at th 2.635 lakh ha as on 18 Dec, 2012 compared with 2.319 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. Higher stocks for delivery on the exchange warehouse were pressurizing prices during the last one month. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.08% and 1.13% lower on Saturday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,775-2,825 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.
Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14848 14710 Prev day -0.08 -1.13
as on Dec 29, 2012 % Change WoW -1.81 -5.61 MoM -1.69 2.78 YoY -4.08 -7.34
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -0.18
Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl
Outlook
Jeera futures may trade with a negative bias today. Higher sowing thereby higher output expectations in Gujarat may pressurize prices. However, export demand may support prices at lower levels. In the medium term (Dec-Jan), prices are likely to stay firm as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.
Turmeric
Turmeric Futures opened on a negative note extending previous days correction. However, prices recovered from lower levels towards the end.. Prices have gained over the last few days as stockists were buying at lower levels. Good quality crop arrivals have also supported prices. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Buyers are looking for turmeric with higher curcumin level at 5% which is unavailable, thereby supporting prices in the spot markets. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. Production is expected around 55 lakh bags. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. There are reports that Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own MSP of Rs.10000/qtl. The Spot remained closed while the Futures settled 0.18% lower on Saturday.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Kapas prices traded on a negative note extending previous days losses on account of long liquidation. NCDEX Kapas and MCX Cotton settled 0.66% and 0.12% lower respectively on Saturday. Although, Cotton advisory Board has pegged cotton output lower at 334 th lakh bales, Cotton Association of India (CAI), in its latest 90 annual general meeting said that Cotton production in the season 2012-13 is expected to be around 350 lakh bales, while the consumption is likely to be around 265 lakh bales. According to the data released by Cotton Corporation of India, Supplies until Dec. 16 fell to 6.2 million bales of 170 kg each, down from 6.9 th million bales a year earlier. Arrivals were down by 12.5 percent as on 9 December. However, it is still below expectations as many farmers, who are waiting for better returns, hold back their produce. Cotton yarn prices have jumped 14.7 percent from Rs.170/Kg to Rs. 195/Kg in Mumbai benchmark market of cotton yarn due to spur in demand form millers and exporters. Demand is mainly coming from China. While domestic market demand is also picking up on seasonal demand. (Dated 21 Dec) ICE Cotton futures settled lower by 1.78% on Friday. Global Cotton Prices are expected to recover on account of good demand from china. The USDA monthly report cuts cotton stocks estimate to 79.64 million bales, from last month's forecast of 80.27 million.
Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 980.5 16230
as on Dec 29, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.66 -4.39 -0.12 -2.17 MoM 1.87 -2.17 YoY #N/A -5.80
Source: Reuters
International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 74.66 81.35
as on Dec 28, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.78 -1.62 0.00 0.00 MoM 4.77 0.00 YoY -18.67 -29.20
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale
valid for Dec 31, 2012 Support 965-975 16410-16455 Resistance 986-1000 16540-16580
Outlook
Cotton prices may trade sideways with a negative bias as higher output expectations by Cotton Association of India has turned the sentiments negative for the cotton prices. However, sharp downside in the domestic markets is expected to be limited in the coming weeks as farmers will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also demand remains strong at low prices.
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