Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | January 2, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | January 2, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis European Final Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.1-level in Dec. UKs Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4-level in the last month. Spanish Manufacturing PMI declined to 44.6-mark in December. European equities are trading higher on the back of US lawmakers passing a budget bill to avert rise in the taxes. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.7 points to 44.6-mark in December as against a rise of 45.3-level in November. Italian Manufacturing PMI increased by 1.6 points to 46.7level in December from earlier rise of 45.1-mark in November. European Final Manufacturing PMI declined marginally by 0.2 points to 46.1-level in December as compared to rise of 46.3-mark a month ago. UKs Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.2 points to 51.4-level in December from previous rise of 49.2-mark in November. Spot gold prices increased 0.5 percent on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Additionally, weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) also supported an upside in the gold prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices rose 1.8 percent today. Additionally, a weaker DX also acted as a positive factor for the white metal prices. In the Indian market appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp positive movement in the prices. The base metals pack traded on a positive note on account of rise in global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the prices was restricted on the back of mixed LME inventories, Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased 2.2 percent as a result of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, rise in the LME Copper inventories by 0.1 percent which stood at 320,500 tonnes capped sharp gains in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices increased 1.3 percent taking cues from US lawmakers agreeing on the deal for the budget to avoid increase in the taxes and spending cuts which could have affected the demand for the fuel. Additionally, weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the crude oil prices. On the domestic bourses, prices gained but appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped further upside movement in the prices. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei* Kospi* FTSE*
th

as at 4.30 pm 2 January 13
High 6005.95 19756.61 10433.63 2033.66 61066.34 Low 5950.85 19687.03 10374.85 2012.30 60415.95 Last 5993.25 19714.24 10395.18 2031.10 60952.08 % Chg from Prev day 0.71 0.68 0.70 1.71 0.89

Open 5950.85 19692.54 10406.36 2013.74 60415.95

(*Prices as on 28 December as markets are closed on account of New Year) Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 2 January 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 79.62 1.3203 54.678 High 79.65 1.3299 54.678 Low 79.565 1.3186 54.25 Current 79.605 1.3246 54.33 % Chg from Prev day -0.33 0.32 -0.64
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 2 January 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Feb13 MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Jan 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Jan 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Jan13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Jan13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX - Jan13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Jan13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1674.63 1672.80 30789 30.32 28.23 57965 91.78 111.50 5047 8000.00 444.70 2085.00 113.50 2338 127.75 17200 949.20 2075.00 113.40

1684.50 1676.80 31152 30.88 30.67 58777 93.07 112.11 5066 8130.00 446.80 2123.50 114.10 2382 128.55 17550 957.70 2121.25 114.25

1669.99 1670.00 30760 30.18 30.585 57932 91.56 111.27 5044 8000.00 444.60 2085.00 113.35 2337 127.60 17150 948.40 2075.00 113.15

1682.40 1676.80 31015 30.81 30.67 58690 93.03 111.95 5065 8115.50 445.65 2120.75 114.05 2381 128.45 17466 953.10 2120.00 114.05

0.47 0.12 0.41 1.75 1.65 1.33 1.32 0.76 0.68 2.16 0.39 2.40 0.62 2.23 0.71 2.08 0.47 2.51 0.75

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | January 2, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious, base metals and crude oil prices to trade with upward bias due to resolution of the US fiscal cliff issue and weakness in the DX. Positive economic data from the US is also expected to add to the gains.

Technical Outook for evening session 2 January 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Feb'13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Jan '13 Nymex Crude Oil Jan13 Natural Gas Jan13 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Jan13 Lead Jan13 Aluminum Jan13 Nickel Jan13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30725 1660 57640 29.97 4951 90.8 178.7 442.6 112.5 126.55 112.5 941.6 Support 1 30860 1670 57950 30.21 4990 91.55 180.5 443.7 113.3 127.4 113.1 947.5 CMP 31015 1682.4 58660 30.77 5053 92.68 182.5 445.55 114 128.25 114.15 952.6 Resistance1 31053 1685 58810 30.87 5079 93.2 185.1 446.95 114.3 128.7 114.6 959 Resistance 2 31210 1695 59187 31.16 5123 94 187.2 448.3 114.75 130.2 115 963

Important Events for Today

Indicator Bank Holiday Bank Holiday German Prelim CPI m/m Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Country JPY CNY EUR EUR EUR GBP US Time (IST) All day All day All Day 1:45pm 2:15pm 3:00pm 8:30pm Actual 44.6 46.7 51.4 Forecast 0.7% 44.9 45.4 49.2 50.2 Previous -0.1% 45.3 45.1 49.1 49.5 Impact Medium Medium Medium High High