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INTRODUCTION
Theoptimaldesignofawindprojectandtheaccuratepredictionofitsenergyproductiondependonhavingan
accurateanddetailedunderstandingofthespatialdistributionofthewindresourceacrosstheprojectarea.
Nowadays,numericalwindflowmodeling,combinedwithonsitemeteorologicalmeasurements,isthepreferred
approachtoestimatethisdistribution.Itisconsequentlyimportanttocontinuallyassesspotentialimprovements
innumericalwindflowmodels.
LinearwindflowmodelslikeWAsP(Troen1990)arewidelyusedtopredictthespatialvariationoftheaverage
windspeed,directionalfrequencydistribution(windrose),windshear,andotherboundarylayercharacteristics.
MostsuchmodelsarebasedonthetheoryofJacksonandHunt(1975).Theycameintowideuseinthe1980s
whenthecomputingresourcewasverylimited.Theyrunfastwhileperformingreasonablywellwherethewindis
notsignificantlyaffectedbysteepslopes,flowseparations,thermallydrivenflows,lowleveljets,andother
dynamicandnonlinearphenomena.
ComputationalFluidDynamics(CFD)modelsareconsideredthenextgenerationofwindflowmodelsforwind
energyapplications.MostCFDmodelssolvethemassandmomentumconservationcomponentsofthenonlinear
NavierStokesequations,andarerununtilconvergenceisreachedusingaconstantinletwindprofile.Foridealized
cases,i.e.2Dor3Dflowoverescarpmentsandhills,suchsteadystateCFDmodelsperformwellandgiveahigh
levelofdetailontheturbulencecharacteristicsoftheflow(Biatsuamlaketal.2004).Severalresearchstudiesshow
thatCFDmodelsperformbetterthantheindustrystandardWAsPmodelinmanybutnotallcases(Bergeetal.,
2006,Perieraetal.2010,VanLuvaneeetal.2009,Sumneretal.,2010).
Onthenextrunguptheladderofsophisticationaremesoscalenumericalweatherprediction(NWP)models(e.g.,
MASS,WRF,ARPS,MC2,KAMM,etc.).Inprinciple,fullycompressible,nonhydrostaticNWPmodelscansimulate
andcaptureabroadrangeofmeteorologicalphenomenafromsynoptictomicroscales,buttherequired
computingpowerissubstantialandincreasesrapidlywithdecreasinggridspacing.Tocircumventthisissue,NWP
modelsareusuallycoupledwithlinearmicroscalewindflowmodelstoachieveahighspatialresolution.The
microscalemodelsusedforthispurposeincludeJacksonHunttypemodels(e.g.,WAsP,MsMicro(Tayloretal.
1983),Raptor(AyotteandTaylor1995))andmassconservingmodels(e.g.WindMap(Brower1999),CALMET(Scire
etal.2000)).TwoleadingexamplesofsuchcoupledmesoscalemicroscalemodelsaretheKAMM/WAsPsystem
developedbyRisoeNationalLaboratory(FrankandLandberg,1997)andtheSiteWindsystemdevelopedbyAWS
Truepower(Brower,1999).AWSTruepower'sapproachistorunthemesoscalemodel(MASS)forasampleofdays
innestedgridsdowntoaresolutionof400mto1.2km.Then,themeanwindflowisdownscaledtoapproximately
50mgridspacingusingthemicroscalemodel(WindMap).Previousresearchhassuggestedthatthisapproachis
moreaccuratethantheindustrystandardWAsPmodeloverwindprojectscaledistancesincomplexterrain,
especiallywheremesoscalecirculationshaveasignificantimpactonthespatialdistributionofthewindresource
(Reedetal.,2004).
ThenextlevelofsophisticationisNWPmodelscoupledtolargeeddysimulations(LES).LESmodelshavetheir
origininmeteorologyandweatherprediction(Deardorff1972,Moeng1984,Mason1994)andsolvetheunsteady,
nonlinearNavierStokesequationswiththefullphysicsparameterizationschemes(radiation,microphysics,cloud
convection,landsurfaceatmosphereinteraction,turbulence,etc.).Theyarerunatahighresolutioncomparedto
NWPmodels,i.e.closetoaninertialsubrangeof3Dturbulence,andarethereforeabletoexplicitlyresolvethe
energeticallyimportanteddiesoftheflowwhileparameterizingthesmallones.ThevalidityofLESdepends
cruciallyonthequalityofthechosenturbulenceclosureschemebecauseoflimitedgridresolutionandthermal
stratificationeffects.However,LESmodelsaremainlyusedasaresearchtoolsincethenecessarycomputing
powerrepresentsamajorhurdle.
Thepresentstudyaimstocharacterizethemeanwindflowatfourdifferentsiteswithdifferentmesoscale
circulationsandsurfacecharacteristics.Oneofthesitesisinflatterrain,oneinacoastalareaandtwoin
mountainousterrain.Fivedifferentnumericalwindflowmodelsarecompared:
- WASPalinearJacksonHuntwindflowmodel
- MeteodynWTaCFDmodel
- WindMap/openWindEnterpriseamassconsistentmodel
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- SiteWindacoupledmesoscaleNWPmassconsistentmodel
- ARPSacoupledmesoscaleNWPLES
METHODOLOGY
Figure1showstheterrainelevationandmetmastlocationsforthefoursitesinthisstudy.Site1islocatedinthe
USGreatPlainsandisfairlyflatwithamixofgrasslandandtrees.Site2isinamountainousregionoftheWestern
USandhasahomogeneousgrasslandgroundcover.Site3islocatednearoneoftheGreatLakesinCanadaandis
forested.Site4isintheGaspePeninsulainCanadaandisalsoforested.Thesesiteswerechosenbecauseofthe
diversityofconditionstheyrepresent,thenumberofmetmastsinstalled,andthequalityofthedata.TheRIX
valuesatthemetmastsrangearound0%,03%,01%and08%forsite1through4,respectively.
Massconsistentmodel
TheWindMapmodelisbasedontheNOABLobjectiveanalysiscode(Phillips1979,Sherman1978).Themodelwas
furtherimprovedtotakeintoaccountinternalboundarylayergrowthduetosharptransitioninsurfaceroughness
(Brower1999).Thismassconsistentmodelcontainsnodynamicequations.Itsolvestheconservationofmass
equationtogeneratea3D,terraindependent,divergencefreewindflow.TheWindMapmodelisinitializedusing
surfaceandupperairwinddatawhenruninconjunctionwithaNWPmodelorusingmetmastdatawhenrunin
openWind.
LinearJacksonHuntwindflowmodel
TheWindAtlasAnalysisandApplicationProgram(WAsP)developedatRisoeDTUNationalLaboratoryisaspectral
modelbasedontheJacksonHunttheory.ThemodelsolvesthelinearizedNavierStokesequationsunderseveral
assumptions:steadystateflow,linearadvection,andfirstorderturbulenceclosure.Inaddition,theterrainisonly
takenintoaccountasafirstorderperturbation.Inordertoimprovetheaccuracyofthepredictions,someanalysts
applystatisticalcorrectionsbasedonaterrainroughnessindex(RIX)(Mortensen2008).Forcomparabilitywiththe
otherwindflowmodels,however,nosuchcorrectionisappliedhere.Forthisstudy,WAsPisrunwitha50mgrid
cellspacing.

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February6,2012

Figure1.Terrainelevationwithmetmastlocationsatthefoursites.Site1(topleft)isfairlyflatwhereasSite2(topright),Site3
(bottomleft)andSite4(bottomright)aremorecomplex.Thesimulationdomainwasdifferentforeachsite:12km17kmfor
Site1,12km12kmforSite2,and17km17kmforSite3andSite4.
ComputationalFluidDynamics(CFD)model
TheCFDmodel,MeteodynWT,developedbyMeteodyn,solvesthenonlinearNavierStokesmomentumequation
withtheMIGALsolver(Meteodyn'stechnicalnotes).ThisCFDmodelassumesanincompressibleandsteadystate
flowandusesaklturbulencemodelbasedonYamada(1983)andArritt(1987).Withoutsolvingtheconservation
ofenergyequation,themodeltakesintoaccountthetemperaturegradienteffectsthroughanadjustedturbulence
lengthscalebasedonthermalstabilityintheturbulentkineticenergy(TKE)equation.Thereare10different
thermalstabilityclassesavailableinthemodelbutneutralatmosphericconditionswereselectedasitisthedefault
option.Theinitialconditionsattheinletaresetusingthesurfaceroughness,acorrespondingreference
logarithmicwindspeedprofileinthesurfacelayerandanEkmanwindspeedprofilefortheremainderofthe
planetaryboundarylayer(PBL).Inpostprocessing,theprogramcalculatesadirectionalspeedratiobetweenevery
pointandthemastandappliesthoseratiostotheobservedwindspeeds.Forthisstudy,theprogramisrunwitha
50mgridcellspacing.
CoupledmesoscaleNWPandmassconsistentmodel
TheSiteWindsystemdevelopedatAWSTruepoweriscomposedoftheMesoscaleAtmosphericSimulationSystem
(MASS)(Manobiancoetal.1996)andtheWindMapmassconsistentdiagnosticmodel(Brower1999).MASSisa
fullycompressible,nonhydrostaticNWPmodel.ThemesoscalemodelisinitializedfromtheNCEP/NCARreanalysis
(Kalnayetal.1996)datasetandthemodelisrunincascademodefroma30kmgridmeshdownto1.2km
(standardSiteWind)or400m(highresolutionSiteWind).ThePBLschemeimplementedinMASSisbasedon
TherryandLaCarrre(1983).Themeanwindflowmodeledbythemesoscalemodelisdownscaledto50mgrid
spacingusingasimplemassconsistentmodel,WindMap,andhighresolutionterrainandlandusedatasets
(Broweretal.2004).
CoupledmesoscaleNWPandLESmodel
ThemesoscaleNWPandLESmodelistheAdvancedRegionalPredictionSystem(ARPS)developedatOklahoma
University(Xueetal.2000).Givensufficientcomputingpowerandwiththeproperchoiceofgridresolutionand
subgridscaleturbulenceparameterizationscheme,ARPSisequivalenttoaLEScode.ThePBLparameterization
schemeinARPSfollowsSunandChang(1986)andthesubgridscaleturbulenceschemeisbasedonMoeng(1984)
andDeardorff(1980).Inthisstudy,ARPSisinitializedfromtheNorthAmerican
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February6,2012
Mesoscale(NAM)modelanalysesandtheARPSsimulationsareconductedatresolutionsrangingfrom12km
downto90m.InLESmodeling,aruleofthumbisthat80%oftheTKEshouldberesolvedexplicitly.Figure2shows
thatthe90mARPSsimulationsseemtoliequiteclosetotheinertialsubrangeofthe3Dturbulentflowobserved
byatalltoweronsiteandconfirmedbyKolmogorov's5/3law.WerunARPSatafinalhorizontalgirdspacingof90
mtokeepthecomputationalburdenmanageableontwonodes(16cores)foreach36hoursimulation.Thisisalso
theresolutionofthesurfacecharacteristicdatabasespresentlyimplementedinARPS.
Runtime
Table1comparestheruntimeofeachnumericalmodelfora12km12kmdomain.Typically,thereare3to15
meteorologicaltowersinstalledatasite.Thesteadystatemodels(massconsistent,JacksonHuntandCFD)areset
uptorunover12directionsectors(each30wide).Inaddition,theJacksonHuntmodelmustberunseparatelyfor
eachmast.TheNWPmodels(bothMASSandARPS)arerunfor72representative24hourdayswitha12hour
spinupbeforethestartofeachday.BecausetheNWPmodelrunsareperformedonaLinuxclusterwithasmany
as80dualquadcorenodes,thelapsedclocktimeismuchlessthanshowntypicallylessthanonedayforthe
NWPmodelat1.2kmresolutionand23daysfortheNWP/LESmodelat90mresolution.
Table1.Approximateruntimesincpuorcorehoursforthedifferentnumericalmodelsforatypical12km12kmdomain
with8masts.TheNWPmodelsareruninparallelonaLinuxcluster,allothersarerunonaPC.TheNWPmodelsarerunfor72
representative24hourdays.Themassconsistent,JacksonHuntandCFDmodelsarerunover12directionsectors.
Model
(resolution)
JacksonHunt
(50m)*
CFD
(50m)*
Mass
consistent
(50m)
#

NWP/
massconsistent
(1.2km/50m)
$
NWP/
massconsistent
(400m/50m)
$

NWP/LES
(90m)
$

Time 8 2.5 ~1/5 12 32 260


Unit permast perdirection permast perday perday perday
TotalTime 48 30 <2 864 2304 18720
*standardPC 1CPU@2.50GHz,6GBofRAM
$
Linuxcluster 1core@2.66GHz,16GBofRAMpernodes
#
multithreadedonasingleCPU6corei7desktop@3.2GHz.24GBofRAM

Figure2.Modeledandobservedenergyspectrumasafunctionoffrequencyat80mheight(loglogscale)foroneofthesitesin
thisstudy.The10minutedatafromthemast(blackpoints)spanafullyear,whereasthehourlyARPSdataspanasampleof36
days.ThebluelineisKolmogorov's5/3law.

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February6,2012
Metricsoferror
Themetricsoferrorforeachsitearethemeanbiasandtherootmeansquareerror(RMSE)betweenthepredicted
andobservedmeanwindspeeds,asdefinedbelow:
|
|
.
|

\
|

=
=
=

=
obs
i
U
j i
U
N
i
N
i j
j
N N
Bias
,
1 , 1
) 1 (
1
(1)
2
,
1 , 1
) 1 (
1
|
|
.
|

\
|

=

=
=

=
obs
i
U
j i
U
N
i
N
i j
j
N N
RMSE (2)
whereNisthenumberofmastand
j i
U
,
isthepredictedwindspeedatmastibasedonthereferencemastjand
obs
i
U istheobservedspeedatmasti.
RESULTSANDDISCUSSION
Localnearsurfacewindclimates
Site1hasgentlyrollinghillscoveredwithgrassandsomepatchyforest.Thewindcomesmainlyfromthesouth
andsouthsoutheast.Althoughthisisapparentlyasimplesite,Figure3showsthatthewindspeeds(at80m)and
windshears(below80m)aresignificantlyhigheratnight,reflectingfrequentnocturnallowleveljets(LLJ)dueto
thedecouplingoftheplanetaryboundarylayer(PBL)aftersunset(Rifeetal.2010).AnocturnalLLJisathinlayerof
highwindspeedsabovethesurfacelayer.Thewindmaximaaretypicallyfoundwithinthefirstfewhundred
metersabovetheground(>100m),buttheLLJsneverthelessincreasethewindspeedat80mheightaswell.High
windshearsarealsoacharacteristicofstablelayers.Eveninthehighwindspeedrange(>10m/s),thewindshear
isnotconstantanddecreasesfrom0.22to0.12.Iftheatmosphereweremostlyinathermallyneutralstate,the
windshearwouldbeconstantinthehighwindspeedrangeduetoenhancedmixing.

Figure3.Left:Diurnalwindspeedpattern(blue)at80mheightandwindshearpattern(green)below80mobservedatamast
atSite1.Right:Windspeeddistribution(red)andmeanwindshearexponent(black)byspeedforthesamemast.
Page|7 WindFlowModelingPerformance

February6,2012

AnalysessimilartothatshowninFigure3wereperformedfortheothersites.Site2islocatedincomplexterrain
andthelandcoverishomogeneousgrassland.Inthiscasethediurnalwindspeedprofilesvarysignificantlybut
quitetheoppositefromSite1.Atonemastthewindspeedsarestrongerduringthedaytimewhenthewindshear
exponentislow(~0.07)andrelativelyweakeratnightwhentheshearismoderate(~0.15).Areasonable
explanationisthatsolarheatinginducesdaytimeconvectionwhichforceshighmomentummiddlelevelairtobe
carrieddowntothesurface.Site3,whichislocatednearonetheGreatLakesinCanada,hasaverycomplexwind
climateduetolandlakemesoscalecirculations,complexorography,andforest.Theprevailingwinddirectionsvary
butaregenerallyeastsoutheastandnorthwest,i.e.,approximatelyperpendiculartothecoastline(Fig.1,bottom
leftpanel).ThediurnalwindspeedsandwindshearsfollowasimilarpatternasinFigure3.However,themean
windshearexponentsaverageabout0.25duringthedayand0.35duringthenight.Fromavisualinspectionofthe
windspeedandpotentialtemperatureprofilespredictedbythemesoscalemodelMASS,nocturnallowleveljets
seemtooccursomewhatfrequently.Highwindshearvaluesarealsotypicalofforestedareas.Finally,Site4is
anothercomplexsitemostlycoveredbytrees.ItslocationintheGaspePeninsula(Canada)putsitonthetrackof
manywinterstorms.Accordingtomeasurements,thereisnotmuchdiurnalwindspeedvariation,butthemean
windshearvariesfrom0.35indaytimeto0.45innighttime.
Validation:errorstatistics
Eachnumericalmodelisrunusingitsdefaultoptions.ThesimulationsdemonstratethatthemesoscaleNWP
modelaloneisabletocapturetheareasofrelativelyhigherandlowerwindspeedsbutthecoarsehorizontal
resolutionofthemodel(1.2kmor400m)producesanoverlysmoothresult.Theadvantageofusingacoupled
mesoscaleNWPmodelwithamassconsistentmodelisthatthelatterisabletocapturethefinedetailsofthe
orographyandsurfaceroughness.Anotherresearchstudy(Franketal.,2001)demonstratedthatacoupled
mesoscaleNWPandmicroscalemodelshowsimprovementoveramesoscalemodelalone.Uponvisualinspection,
allnumericalmodelstestedinthisstudyexhibitrealisticwindflowpatternswithlowerwindsinthevalleysand
higherwindsatthetopofthehillsandescarpments,asisusuallyexpected.
Foreachmodelandeachsite,themeanwindspeedateverymastispredictedfromonereferencemastatatime
usingdirectionalspeedupratios,thestandardmethodforwindplantproductionstudies.Theerrorstatisticsthe
meanbiasandRMSEarecalculatedfromequations(1)and(2).TheresultsfortheRMSEareshowninTable2.
ThecoupledmesoscaleNWPmassconsistentmodel,SiteWind,performedaboutaswellasthecoupledmesoscale
NWPLESmodel,ARPS.Overall,wedidnotseemuchimprovementinrunningthemesoscaleNWPmodelMASSat
ahigherresolutionof400mcomparedtothedefault1.2km.Mostimportantly,allthreecoupledNWPmodels
exhibitedbetteraccuracythantheJacksonHuntandCFDmodels.
CONCLUSION
ThesuperiorperformanceofallthreecoupledNWPmodelssuggeststhatthecorrectsimulationofthermal
stabilityeffectsandotherphenomenarelatedtotemperature(andmoisture)gradientsdevelopedindynamic
mesoscalesimulationsareofimportanceinunderstandingatmosphericwindflowevenoverdomainsofquite
modestsize,suchasthosestudiedhere.Thedisadvantageoftheseapproachesisthegreatercomputerpower
required,especiallyforthecoupledNWPLESmethods.Itisuptotheusertodecidewhetherthegaininaccuracy
obtainedthroughthesemethodsisworththeadditionalcostincomputertime(seeTable1).
Table2.Validationofthemodeledmeanwindspeedsat80ma.g.l.usingtheRMSEcalculationfromequation(2).
Site
1 2 3 4 Combined
Terrain Flat Complex Complex Complex
LandCover Mixed Open Forested Forested
NumberofMasts 8 6 3* 9 26
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February6,2012
MeanDistanceBetween
Masts
7.3km 5.0km 5.7km 6.0km
RMSE(m/s)
LinearJacksonHuntmodel 0.26 0.34 1.15 0.74 0.62
CFDmodel 0.50 0.46 1.07 0.95 0.76
Massconsistentmodel 0.32 0.26 0.75 0.76 0.56
CoupledNWPandmass
consistentmodel
0.10 0.39 0.56 0.67 0.48
CoupledhighresNWPand
massconsistentmodel
0.24 0.30 0.59 0.63 0.46
NWP/LESmodel 0.28 0.49 0.57 0.49 0.45
*ForSite3,thesimulationdomainwastoosmalltoincludemast2.
- Overall,themoresophisticatedmodelsdoperformbetteratthefoursitesstudied:
o The coupled mesoscale NWPmassconsistent model, SiteWind, performed about as well as the
coupled NWPLES model, ARPS. However, the NWPLES model was run at a significantly lower
resolutionthantheothers(90mcomparedto50m).Itispossiblethatimprovedaccuracycould
be obtained at a higher resolution and with further refinements in the turbulence closure and
otheraspectsofthismodel.
o ThelinearmicroscalemodelandnonlinearCFDmodelassumingneutralatmosphericconditions
produce significantly higher errors. Those models were not designed to fully capture
temperature (and moisture) gradient effects. The high performance of the coupled mesoscale
NWPmassconsistentmodel,SiteWind,suggeststhatcouplingamesoscaleNWPmodelwiththe
linear microscale model or the CFD model would yield more accuratewind flow estimates than
usingthesetwomodelsinastandalonemode.
- Onsite met mast measurements show that thermal effects have a significant impact on the diurnal
cycleanddistributionofwindspeedsandwindshears:
o ThePBLisrarelyinnearneutralconditionsexceptwhenthewindsaremoderatetostrongwitha
cloudyskyoraroundsunriseandsunset.
o ThePBLisrarelyinequilibrium
- Payattentiontothelocalwindclimateandmesoscalecirculations.
- Knowtheadvantagesandlimitationsofyournumericalmodel.


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
WewouldtothankthefollowingcolleaguesatAWSTruepowerfortheirhelpinthisresearch:EddieNatenberg,
ChuckAlonge,JeffFreedman,JeremyTensenandColinRickert.ThehelpoftheARPSsupportgroupisalso
gratefullyacknowledged.
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