01 04 13

Stock Market Trends & Observations
1/04/13 Saw Tooth Top ???

P os ted J anuary 4 , 2 0 1 3 by Bob Categories: U P D A T E
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MARKET MESSAGES 1/04/13 Were getting that saw-tooth topping formation that is so common prior to a correction. Watching for lower lows now.
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Categories
A WAVE COUNT (1) CYCLES (7) EDSON GOULD (23) IN DEPTH (27)
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JEFF SAUT (12) ROUND TRIP (1) SELL BUY (32) TERRY LAUNDRY'S T-THEORY (37) Best Bond (5) Confidence Index (3) Cycles (6) Gold (5) Overview (3)
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T Theory (29) Weekly Update (30) UPDATE (150) WARNING (1) WISDOM (11)
But the NASDAQ has already started down.
Recent Posts
1/04/13 Saw Tooth Top ??? 1/03/13 Jeff Saut, Cycles, Gold, Dollar 1/02/13 Edson Gould 1/02/13 Early January Surge 12/31/12 Told You So
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12/31/12 Fiscal Cliff Solved Humbug???? 12/30/12 Fiscal Cliff Problems
And Apple is one sick puppy .
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Archives
January 2013 (4) December 2012 (12) November 2012 (7) October 2012 (1) August 2012 (37) July 2012 (11) June 2012 (4)
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May 2012 (14) April 2012 (17) March 2012 (2) February 2012 (4) January 2012 (7) December 2011 (11) November 2011 (17) October 2011 (19) September 2011 (17) August 2011 (32) July 2011 (17) June 2011 (10)
The nex t chart shows an env elope limiting the upside.
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MARKET AXIOMS & QUOT ES

THERE ARE RICH TRADERS AND OLD TRADERS, BUT THERE ARE NO RICH, OLD TRADERS. - Anonymous
Here is one way of counting the correction. If true, this would indicate one more lower low and then a resumption of the adv ance. Of course it could be that where I hav e a 2, it is really only 1 . Well see.
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No young or inexperienced trader believes the above adage (I didn't believe it when I was young) ******************* The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns. Wellmanaged portfolios start with this precept. - Benjamin Graham The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. - John Templeton Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets. - Old French Proverb Rule#1: Never lose money. Rule #2: Never forget rule #1 - Warren Buffett The four most dangerous words in investing are "This time it's different". - John Templeton "This time it's different" was prevalent during the bubble of 2000. In 1929 it was called
1/03/13 The following is from Jeff Sauts comments of this Monday and Tuesday . Armageddon? December 31, 2012 Monday (excerpt) The call for this week: The American public ought to be chanting the mantra from the 1 97 6 hit movie Netw ork, Im mad as hell and Im not going to take it any more (you can see that Netw ork clip by clicking here: http://w w w .youtube.com/w atch?v=rGIY 5V yj4Y M). And, I dont care if you are a Democrat, Republican, or Druid, w hat has been going on inside the D.C. Beltw ay is a disgrace and hurts We the people. On Friday, because of the shenanigans in D.C., the SPX declined from Thursdays close of 1 41 0.7 0 into a low of 1 384.00. Obviously, that should have cleaned out all of the stop-loss orders below the 1 390 1 400 support level. Thats w hy early this morning the pre-opening futures are up ~5 points to 1 390. If there is no deal by todays close
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futures are up ~5 points to 1 390. If there is no deal by todays close participants should look for a marginal up opening follow ed by attempts to sell stocks off w ith low er prices due by the bell. If there is still no deal by Wednesday, thats w hen the dow nside w ashout should be complete. Accordingly, Kamikaze trading types may buy partial positions on w eakness today looking to fill-out those trading positions on further w eakness Wednesday. Investors, how ever, should be reading their buy list because this feels more like a dow nside crescendo rather than the beginning of a w hole new leg to the dow nside. Lessons Learned January 2, 2012 Wednesday (complete) Beginning of the year letters are alw ays hard to w rite because there is a tendency to talk about the year gone by, or w orse, attempt to predict the year ahead. Therefore, w e are titling this years letter in an attempt to share some of the lessons that should have been learned over the past few years. We begin w ith this quote from an Allstate commercial featuring Dennis Haysbert:
"New Economics". - Bob History always repeats, only the details change. - Edson Gould If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks. - John (Jack) Bogle Stock are bought on expectations, not facts. Gerald Loeb Emotions are your worst enemy in the stock market. Don Hays Herd Mentality: Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. - The Book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" Herd Mentality: Cases such as Tulipomania in 1624--when Tulip bulbs traded at a higher price than gold--suggest the existence of what I would dub "Mackay's Law of Mass Action:" when it comes to the effect of social behavior on pdfcrowd.com
Over the past year, w eve learned a lot. Weve learned that meatloaf and Jenga can actually be more fun than reservations and box seats. That w hos around your TV is more important than how big it is. That the most memorable vacations can happen ten feet from your front door. That cars arent for show ing how far w eve come, but for taking us w here w e w ant to go. Weve learned that the best things in life dont cost much at all.
Charles Dickens classic novel begins w ith the quote, It w as the best of times, and it w as the w orst of times. That quote is certainly reflective of the stock market in the year gone by as 201 2 w ent dow n in the books w ith that moniker. To be sure, from the October 201 1 low into the April 201 2 high it w as the best of times w ith the S&P 500 gaining some 32% , and w e w ere bullish. From there, how ever, the equity markets got much harder; and is it any w onder? Indeed, its been said that the stock market anticipates events six months in advance. If thats true, around the April peak the SPX started w orrying about the Presidential election and then the fiscal cliff. Subsequently, the SPX declined 1 0.9% from the April high (1 422) into the June low (1 267 ). From there the rally resumed and peaked in September at 1 47 5 before spending the rest of the year in a struggle (see chart on page 3). On the surface the nominal numbers portrayed a great year w ith the SPX sporting a total return of 1 3% +. Y et for most investors it w as a pretty difficult year w ith roughly 90% of professional money managers underperforming the SPX as they w orried about w aning earnings momentum, softening economic statistics, Euroquake, a China debacle, a dysfunctional U.S. government, etc. Of course I personally dont mind the under-performance because many of the folks w ho underperformed did so because they w ere managing risk, w hich is at the centerpiece of my investment philosophy. As often referenced in these missives, investors need to manage the risk, for as Benjamin Graham espoused in his book The Intelligent Investor, The essence of investment management is the management of RISKS, not the management of RETURNS. Well-managed portfolios start w ith this precept. Investors should keep that quote on their w alls so they dont forget the major lessons learned since the 2008 Financial Fiasco. Y et, there are other lessons to be remembered. To that point, Merrill Lynch lost tw o of
the intelligence of individuals, 1+1 is often less than 2, and sometimes considerably less than 0. - The Book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" I made money by selling too soon. - Bernard Baruch If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Bernard Baruch The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible. - Bernard Baruch The hardest part of a bull market is staying on. Anonymous A bubble is a bull market in which you don't have a position. - Anonymous A buy and hold strategy is a short term trade that went wrong. - Anonymous Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. - John Maynard Keynes
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other lessons to be remembered. To that point, Merrill Lynch lost tw o of its best and brightest back in 2009 as Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg left for less constrained environments. During their final w eeks at Merrill they w rote about lessons they have learned over the decades. To w it:
Richard Bernsteins Lessons
Return of principal is more important than the return on principal. - Anonymous Hope is your worst enemy in the market. - Anonymous Don't catch a falling knife. Anonymous Spend at least as much time researching a stock as you would choosing a refrigerator. - Peter Lynch When you realize that you are riding a dead horse the best strategy is to dismount. - Sioux Indian Proverb Dont ever make the mistake of telling the market it is wrong. - James Dines Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes. Jesse Livermore Let Wall Street have a nightmare and the whole country has to help get them back in bed again. - Will Rogers
1 . Income is important, as are capital gains. Because most investors ignore income opportunities, income may be more important than capital gains. 2. Most stock m arket indicators have never actually been tested. Most dont work. (Bobs em phasis) 3. Most investors time horizons are much too short. Statistics indicate that day trading is largely based on luck. 4. Bull markets are made of risk aversion and undervalued assets. They are not made of cheering and a rush to buy. 5. Diversification doesnt depend on the number of asset classes in a portfolio. Rather, it depends on the correlations betw een the asset classes in a portfolio. 6. Balance sheets are generally more important than are income or cash flow statements. 7 . Investors should focus strongly on GAAP accounting, and should pay little attention to pro forma or unaudited financial statements. 8. Investors should be providers of scarce capital. Return on capital is typically highest w here capital is scarce. 9. Investors should research financial history as m uch as possible. (Bobs em phasis) 1 0. Leverage gives the illusion of w ealth. Saving is w ealth.
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David Rosenbergs Lessons
Rogers Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. - Bob's Grandfather Never buy a stock that won't go up in a bull market. Never sell a stock that won't go down in a bear market. Anonymous Nobody is more bearish than a sold-out bull. - Anonymous The public is right during the trends but wrong at both ends. - Humphrey Neill Never sell a dull market short. - Anonymous I sell euphoria and buy panic. The way he determines that is to wait until prices start gapping in the charts. Gapping on the upside is euphoria, while gapping on the downside is panic. - Jimmy Rogers courtesy of Jeff Saut Cut your losses and let your profits run. - Anonymous Don't marry a stock. Every stock must be sold. -
1 . In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined w ith a market call. 2. Never be a slave to the data they are no substitutes for astute observation of the big picture. 3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost alw ays errs on the side of optimism except at the bottom. 4. Fall in love w ith your partner, not your forecast. 5. No two cycles are ever the sam e. (Bobs em phasis) 6. Never hide behind your model. 7 . Alw ays seek out corroborating evidence 8. Have respect for w hat the markets are telling you. There w as another savvy seer that left Merrill Lynch, but that w as 21 years ago. At the time Bob Farrell w as considered the best strategist on Wall Street, and w hile he still pens a stock market letter, his lessons learned are as timeless today as they w ere w hen w ritten in 1 992. Bob Farrells Rules (all good rules - Bobs com m ents) 1 . Markets tend to return to the mean over time. 2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction. (Bobs em phasis) 3. There are no new eras excesses are never permanent. 4. Exponential rising and falling m arkets usually go further than you think. (Bobs em phasis) 5. The public buys the m ost at the top and the least at the bottom . (Bobs em phasis) 6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve. 7 . Markets are strongest w hen they are broad and w eakest w hen
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they narrow to a handful of blue-chips. 8. Bear m arkets have three stages. (Bobs em phasis) 9. When all the experts and forecasts agree som ething else is going to happen. (Bobs em phasis) 1 0. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets. With these lessons in mind, w e w ish you good investing in the New Y ear. CY CLES The following is from SentientT rader.com They sell a v ery good cy clic software package. This SPX cy cle scenario calls for a meaningful bottom (1 8 month cy cle) around mid-201 3.
stock must be sold. Anonymous Often times WHEN you take a position can be more important than WHAT you take a position in. Anonymous "If Santa fails to call the bears will roam on Broad and Wall!" - Lucien Hooper CLEVER QUIPS P/E ratio - The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing. - Anonymous Those who can . . . do
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Those who can . . . do Those who cant . . . teach Those who cant teach . . . work for the government. Anonymous Wall Street is a street with a river at one end and a graveyard at the other. Anonymous Never check stock prices on a Friday, it could spoil your weekend. - Anonymous Money talks, but all mine ever says is "goodbye" Anonymous
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And this scenario say s that we achiev ed a 1 5.8 month cy cle bottom in Nov ember. Which one is correct? If the market is going to forge ahead after the recent bottom, certainly Alt 2 is correct. Well find out after the first correction.
Don't gamble. Take all of your savings and buy some good stock and hold it until it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers October, this is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January,
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others are July, January, September, April, November, May, June, December, August and February. - Mark Twain Economists have predicted 14 of the last 3 recessions. Anonymous Market Correction - The day after you buy stocks. Anonymous In 2008 stocks were a good buy . . . . . Goodbye Mercedes, goodbye yacht, goodbye vacation home, goodbye . . . -Ed Hart (modified for today)
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About T his Blog

The gold cy cles predicts peaks and not bottoms. It shows a significant peak coming (probably around mid-201 3).
Observations of Stock Market Trends uses several proprietary technical indicators discovered by the
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indicators discovered by the author. The object of this blog is to allow you to understand the blog author's thinking as he executes trades for his own portfolio. "Observations of Stock Market Trends" is published on an irregular schedule. The blog author tries to issue an update when a stock market inflection point is near or has taken place. Occasionally, illness or acts of god may interfere with a blog update. If you find this blog interesting, please become a follower by entering your email address in the section "Email Subscription" (top of this column). You must also confirm your email
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This longer term gold cy clic chart is predicting a peak around mid-201 3.
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Disclosure
The content on this blog is meant to be entertaining information and should not be construed as investment advice. No statement by the blog's author should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or to participate in a trading or investment strategy. Any investment decision by anyone that results in losses or gains based on information from this blog is not the responsibility of the blog's author. The blog's author will make
Gold-GC-pea k s-a n a ly sis-1 2 -y r -w eek ly -4 7 -w k -cy cle
The dollar cy cle is indicating a significant bottom in mid-201 3. Gold and the dollar mov e inv ersely to one another, down dollar means up gold.
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The blog's author will make statements about certain investments and It's simply the author expressing his opinion, or action, regarding his own investments. These opinions are never to be construed as investment advice.
About Me
After 55 years of studying and investing in the stock market, I am sharing some of this knowledge by writing a stock market blog. Beginning in 1957, I realized quickly that technical analysis had inconsistent or high failure rates. Fundamental analysis?? Fundamental analysis was fundamentally flawed for telling you WHEN to buy or sell a stock. In 1973 I subscribed to Edson Gould's "Findings & Forecasts" and was learning from the greatest technician of the 20th century. After reading "My Most Important Discovery" by Edson Gould it explained the irrational volatility of markets.
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1/02/13 Here are a couple of Edson Gould publications (complete PDF files). Decade Cy cle by Edson Gould My Most Im portant Discov ery by Edson Gould And the following is not by Gould but it ties into his important discov ery . Its an ancient book on the Google Book site. Y ou hav e to download it in the format desired. Mem oirs of Ex traordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
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1/02/13 In the 1 2/31 /1 2 message, I showed what appeared to be a completed 3 step down. I kinda think that count worked out OK (understatement). The good news is that we may be in a 5 step up since 1 1 /1 6/1 2. The bad news is that if we turn back down, I would call this a failed breakout and the decline since 1 2/1 9/1 2 was step 1 down. After declining in December, it isnt unusual for the market to be up in the first few day s of January .
The fog began to lift and I was on my way to understanding the "true" nature of the stock market.
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Rev isiting the fiscal cliff, the tax package passed both houses after midnight. By doing so, all tax rates had already gone up (pretty silly ). The future cuts in the budget are another question and there could be a real fight brewing ov er that (another stalemate). The democrats apparently want to take new rev enues from higher tax es on those
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families with incomes ov er $450,000 and spend it (dumb). The republicans say NO. It seems pretty obv ious that the republicans hav e got this one correct. But other budget cuts are the real question, do we cut a lot quickly or gradually ??? This is a v ery important question for the economy and our future. Cutting quickly is something that I dont think our economy could absorb. Moderate cuts seem more logical BUT if the economy surprised us and did absorb big cuts well, that would be a rocket for the stock market. If we dont get our national debt GROWTH problem under control, we will be one of those countries that someday is faced with a catastrophic tax increase. This will be shov ed down our throat to sav e the dollar. Without confidence in the dollar, we cant borrow at reasonable interest rates and that would be v ery , v ery bad. The stakes are high and perhaps all of this is part of large step 3 down that I see lay ing in wait for us (its alway s in the distant future . . . until it becomes today ). Remember, ev ery thing isnt the end of the world with large step 3 down. All y ou hav e to do is surv iv e it financially and then inv est in lots of quality things and hav e patience. It will be akin to 1 932 all ov er again. Although there were rough y ears ahead after 1 932, it was the turning point for an incredible fortune (ending in 2000). The fortune that could hav e been made from December 1 97 4 to January 2000 will be dwarfed by this future turn. Edson Gould would div ide the length of the prev ious bull market by 3 and that would be an estimate for the bear market. Using 1 932 as the bottom to the y ear 2000, we hav e 68 y ears, div ided by 3 y ields about 23 y ears for the bear market. 2000 plus 23 y ears giv es us the y ear 2023. If the bottom was 1 942 (this was the end of the 3rd step down from
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1 929). 2000 minus 1 942 is 58 y ears, div iding by 3 giv es us 1 9 y ears. 2000 plus 1 9 y ears is 201 9. I had prev iously estimated 201 8 due to the 1 8 y ear cy cle. So 201 8-201 9 or 2023 is y ears away and if any of this is true (???), we hav e a long time before a final answer. My Charts at StockCharts.com Wav e Counts & Other Goodies Click on any picture or chart to enlarge it 12/31/12
NO TAX VOTE IN HOUSE TONIGHT; US POISED TO GO OVER FISCAL CLIFF

Our politicians are so predictable. The democrats can say the republicans are irresponsible and the republicans can sav e the day by not raising tax es. Each party has their talking point. For those who are reading this blog outside the USA, dont forget that the goofy people are in the House. We hav e a higher quality of goofy in the Senate. But they re the best we can find. OK . . . now whats the rush for an agreement after tonight? Each party is going to want their package and only their package. They might want to wage a protracted war, but the public might hav e something to say about that. It just seems likely that well hav e an agreement soon after tonight. If not, I would be surprised, but DC surprises me all the time. 12/31/12
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12/31/12 Chart for the SP futures, 1 50 minute bars. As I post this, we hav e 7 .5 hours before tax es go up. Ev en if the Senate passes a bill, what will the House do??? The House is where the loose cannons hang out. Im alway s skeptical. Thats what happens when y ou get old, y ou dont believ e in Santa Claus or nuthin.
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12/30/12 Y ou all know about the republicans pledge to not raise tax es. If a deal is struck before Jan 1 , income tax es will be raised and the republicans will look bad because they v iolated their tax pledge (cant hav e that). On Jan 1 , the Bush tax cuts ex pire and all tax rates go up. So if a deal can be reached after Jan 1 the end result is that incom e tax es will be lowered. So the republicans hav e got this figured out, let the Bush tax cuts ex pire and then lower incom e tax es. How about that . . . the republican look good by keeping their no new tax es pledge. Seems totally logical to me . . . in a weird kinda way .
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I call these guy s (democrats. and republicans) clowns with good reason. Its so much fun watching American politics at work. As Will Rogers said, we hav e the best politicians that money can buy . Now the flip side of this situation is that no deal is struck for weeks (months???). WOW. Wall Street and inv estors around the world will go nuts because of Congress inability to gov ern during a critical period. Same thing happened during the 201 1 debt crisis. The stock market declined 21 % as a result of that mess. Im old and remember when the debt ceiling used to be raised without any discussion by either side. Of course we hadnt achiev ed 3rd world debt status back then. 12/27 /12 The sky is falling, the sky is falling . . . Chicken Little (aka Bob)
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Ch ick en Lit t le
Below is the chart with the wav e count that has bothered me for some time. Sounding like a broken record and restating that we could be finished with the bull market since 2009 because the count appears to be
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fulfilled. I hav e said numerous times that I ex pected the bull market to end in 201 3 and thats why I hold out the possibility of a step 4 and 5 up. Regardless of what I think, the market has been telling us for some time to be careful because were in the terminal stages of the bull market (step 3). Now that doesnt mean we cant make good money if steps 4 and 5 materialize, but prudence is (has been) warranted. There is still an outside possibility that we hav e only completed 2 steps up in the 3rd step (well see about that). All the big money is made in step 1 and step 2 up. Step 3 is normally a topping step (saw tooth formation). This was not true as we ran up to the 2000 peak (blow-off top). Speculation was more rampant during this period than 1 929. Remember all the talk about the stock market at ev ery party y ou went to in 1 998-1 999. Y ou couldnt fail to make money . . . and that is alway s a warning sign in any market.
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And this chart with its trendlines is a bit scary too. The bottoms line is dead on and the top line is close enough. But until the market turns
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dead on and the top line is close enough. But until the market turns down in a bear market, this is just an interesting chart.
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The rally since 1 1 /1 6/1 2 appears to hav e hit a correction point (3 steps up). But did we just finish first step up since 1 1 /1 6/1 2??
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In the chart below, notice that we are nearing the bottom edge of the env elope.
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Before I could post today s update, the market put on a spirited rally . I guess they thought we were close enough to the env elope bottom. After the market close, the rally ran into profit taking. But its v ery likely that we could hav e a multi-step rally that began late today and will last for 2-3 day s (???).
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We hav e a v ery small ov ersold in the market, certainly not enough to warrant the rally that we got late today . Kinda suspicious, but if we got really good news from DC, I suppose all would be forgiv en. I just dont hav e faith in Bozo the clown (Say it aint so, Joe). For those who dont remember Bozo, y oure y oung and Im old . . . or y our memory has
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failed and y oure on y our way to the home. Now ev en Shoeless Joe Jackson is way before my time (1 91 9).
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1 2 -2 7 -1 2 McClella n Oscilla t or
If Santa fails to call the bears will roam on Broad and Wall! MARKETS SPIKE ON NEWS THAT BOEHNER WILL BRING THE HOUSE BACK SUNDAY . Y up, hope springs eternal. Calling the beltway clowns back to DC doesnt mean the v otes are there and its going to take some moderate republicans stepping forward to create a compromise. Well see if thats going to happen. It would be nice if the Tea Party could take a reality check on cause and effect in the markets and Main St. and see their way clear to cut spending in a moderate manner (instead of all at once). Didnt mom say , all things in moderation??? Asking for reality from the Tea Party is a real fairy tale
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. . . how naiv e of me to wish for such a thing. I dont think these guy s know the first thing about how DC economics affects the public (or business) spending. Did y ou notice how Christmas spending plummeted as soon as the fiscal cliff turned into a reality . According to research conducted by MasterCard (NY SE:MA), holiday sales rose just 0.7 % from the end of October through Christmas Eve this is compared w ith last years 2% increase. Prior to fiscal cliff reality , Wall St and Main St were going about their business as if ev ery thing was going to be OK . . . duhhh what me worry ??? After Black Friday , the sales outlook was v ery positiv e . . . but then . . . Bah, humbug. Unfortunately the bad taste still lingers for me after the national debt crisis took place in 201 1 . Wall St didnt forget or forgiv e either. But I must point out one thing, if its obv ious, its obv iously wrong. Meaning that history might not repeat ev en if Congress reaches a slow and pitiful non-agreement. Kinda hard to rationalize, but the market is perv erse and will do any thing to screw y ou up. So Iv e cov ered all bases and now Im neatly hedged against all v iewpoints. From the sentienttrader.com we hav e the following cy cles chart. Note that a cy cle bottom was anticipated around 1 2/24. A bigger cy cle bottom is due around February .
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And here is a gold cy cle chart for the gold bugs. It works in a similar manner ex cept the cy cle dates denote peaks instead of bottoms.
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Much longer update than what I was planning but thats kinda normal. When I neglect things, I feel that I hav e to pick the slack. 12/22/12 SAT MERRY CHRIST MAS & HAPPY HOLIDAY S T O ALL Mike Burk said today : Seasonally, for the remainder of the year, the market typically rises on low volume. I wonder if that is going to be true with Congress in a do nothing mode?? Hope springs eternal. Prev iously when I said things should be quiet on Thursday and Friday , who knew the republicans were going to kick the can ov er the cliff? The reaction immediately in the ov ernight futures market found the SP
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futures down 24 points (equiv alent to about 220 Dow points). The market recov ered half of that loss during the day . Today its all about brinksmanship and seeing who will blink first in Washington. It wouldnt be surprising if we go into nex t y ear with no agreement. After were about 7 -1 0 day s into the new y ear, I would think somebody would blink. But with both parties in a combativ e war with each other, who really knows?? Wall Street will be really pissed with a token agreement. Remember the aftermath in 201 1 with Congress not raising the debt ceiling or agreeing on a method of dealing with our debt problems? In August the US receiv ed a lowered bond rating and Wall Street lost confidence in the gov ernments ability to gov ern. The market continued into a tailspin long after Congress had agreed to raise the debt ceiling and kick the can down the road. The SP 500 lost 290 points (21 %) from May into October 201 1 . It wouldnt be surprising if an identical situation dev elops on Wall St ov er the present fiscal cliff, meaning another tailspin after the agreement. But may be Congress will surprise us and reach a real agreement that makes a good attempt at our debt problems. In that case Wall Street might not sell off. We shall see. 12-19-12 FRI Iv e been busy play ing with my new toy , hence the sparse updates recently . I watch the passengers blood run out of their face when I go to wide open throttle. Its awesomely FAST and scares me too. Wheeeeeeeeeeee. Notice the ghost flames on the front of the car. They re hard to see and y ou need to look closely .
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Scr ea m in Dem on 1
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Ghost flames are obv ious in this picture.
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Scr ea m in Dem on 1 1
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This is one hellacious car. It recently appeared in the magazine Muscle Mustangs and Fast Fords and I was surprised to find it for sale shortly afterwards. This is the fastest car Iv e ev er owned (1 0.8 in the 1 /4 mile). Prior to this, my fastest was a 68 Dodge Charger R/T (car in Bullitt). Scream in Dem on Article
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Bingo to Mike Burk in his comments on 1 2-1 5. Tom McClellan said in his recent report: Is It 197 3 Again? The sidew ays 1 97 0s w as projected years ago to be repeated in the 201 0s, and so far it looks like the market is generally follow - ing that script. The sidew ays period is not due to end until around 2022, and in the meantime it is a great period for market timers w ho can figure out how to buy low , sell high, and repeat. In the shorter term, stocks should be seen as topping now , then a sharp drop is due right at the end of December to a bottom due Jan. 3. The 8-month cycle bottom is due Jan. 1 5 to Feb. 4. That should bring a failing rally to a top in May 201 3, then more damage. More info at T he McClellan Market Report. In the following charts there is the option to call this step 3 up or step 4 up. Smaller cap and NASDAQ are showing 3 steps up, while large cap is mostly say ing we are in 4th step up. Christmas is nex t Tuesday and I would ex pect the market to be asleep on Friday (may be Thursday too) as most of the trading ty coons will take off for an ex tended Christmas holiday .
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1 2 -1 9 -1 2 NA SDA Q 8 0 MIN BA RS
1 2 -1 9 -1 2 SOX 2 0 MIN BA RS
The nex t two charts show that we hav e hit the upper limits of the env elope indicating that the best part of the adv ance is behind us.
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1 2 -1 9 -1 2 SPX 6 0 MIN BA RS
1 2 -1 9 -1 2 IND 6 0 MIN BA RS
12/15/12 SAT Mike Burk say s in this weeks commentary , Seasonality has been the dom inant influence in the m arkets behavior and that pattern calls for strength through the end of the year.
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12/14/12 - T HU Since the low on 1 1 /1 6/1 2, it looks like a 3 step count is complete on the upside. There is alway s a possibility that we could hav e a 5 count to the upside. Best case correctiv e scenario: If a significant rev ersal took place on 1 1 /1 6/1 2, we should hav e a normal correction, which would retrace about 50% of the adv ance. The adv ance would resume after the correction. Best/Worst case correctiv e scenario: If the bottom on 1 1 /1 6/1 2 was only step 4 down, we should hav e another step down (step 5) ending below the 1 1 /1 6/1 2 low. Worst case correctiv e scenario: The peak in September could be a completed 3 count in a larger 3 count dating from the March 2009 low. There is alway s the prospect that we hav e only completed step 1 down on 1 1 /1 6/1 2. This would be part of a major downtrend that began in September. I am loathe to embrace the bear market scenario at this time because the consequences are too grav e for my tiny mind to comprehend. I thought 2008 was unbeliev ably bad and I believ e the nex t bear market will be ev en worst as it will be the 3rd and last step down since the 2000 peak.
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These following uptrend lines should be penetrated if step 3 up is complete.
The following is the 5 day EMA buy /sell sy stem as can be seen in chart #30.4. The chart in 30.4 is the SPX while the chart below portray s the SP
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futures.
1 2 -1 4 -1 2 SP FUT URES 1 5 MIN BA RS 5 DA Y EMA BUY /SELL SY ST EM
12/12/12 WED The German DAX Index made a new recov ery high today since 2009. The London FTSE is struggling to make a new high abov e 201 1 , but has failed to date. See chart #1 0.5 Daily Index es International. The first chart is a 60 minute bar chart of the Dow Industrials with an env elope. Notice that the limits of the env elope hav e done a fair job of containing the ex treme mov es of the Industrials. Each time it hit the upper bounds of the env elope (solid red line), it usually backed off, sometimes quickly and other times price may hav e crawled up the ex tremes of the env elope. Currently we are touching the upper edges of the env elope. The second chart is the same only with a shorter time span. This indicator is likely telling us that (for the moment) the most significant gains are behind us.
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1 2 -1 2 -1 2 IND 6 0 MIN W IT H ENV ELOPE
1 2 -1 2 -1 2 INDUST RIA LS 6 0 MIN BA R W IT H ENV ELOPES 2
Below is the 5 Day EMA Sy stem and it shows where today price almost touched the 5 Day EMA line and rebounded. As long as price remains abov e the 5 Day EMA line, the market is a buy but buy ing when it is at the line is a transaction opportunity . If the line has mov ed down and penetrated the line, y ou would hav e sold y our holding immediately and
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gone short (or standby if y ou dont short). The rules to this sy stem follow this chart.
1 2 -1 2 -1 2 SP FUT URES 5 MIN BA RS W IT H 5 DA Y EMA SY ST EM
Quote from Robert Colby s book, T he Ency clopedia Of T echnical Market Indicators, Second Edition, regarding the 5 Day EMA Crossov er Strategy . This is the best simple trend-follow ing indicator w e tested against daily DJIA data. Substituting 5-days for 1 20-days in the same formula (above), and starting w ith $1 00 and reinvesting profits, total net profits for this 5-day EMA Crossover Strategy w ould have been $1 6 billion, assuming a fully invested strategy, reinvestment of profits, no transactions costs and no taxes. This w ould have been 7 8 million percent better than buy-and-hold. Short selling w ould have been profitable. I hav e modified the 5 day into a 35 hour EMA. This was done due to v olatility issues (gaps) in today s markets. Trading the SP futures (nearly
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24 hours/day ) can minimize gaps but not completely . To av oid sleepless nights, there are trading algorithms av ailable with certain online brokerages that can ex ecute this trade automatically otherwise, its probably not practical without some modifications.
1 2 -1 2 -1 2 SP FUT URES 3 8 MIN BA RS W IT H T RENDLINES
In the nex t chart notice how the last downward trendline was briefly penetrated today to the upside. Well hav e to wait and see if thats significant but today s rally stopped almost ex actly on the 7 8.6% retracement line. If the market is still in an ov erall decline, its not normal for a rally to retrace this much of the prior decline. An ex ception to this would be where large step one declines and then retrace the entire decline, making a double top. That would be the ex ception but its too early to say if thats happening here.
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1 2 -1 2 -1 2 SP FUT URES 1 3 5 MIN BA RS W IT H T RENDLINE & FIBONA CCI RET RA CEMENT
Since the ov erall wav e count indicated a 3 count of a 3 count since March 2009. There is alway s the possibility that the bull market is ov er. The alternativ e is that we will trace out a 4th and 5th step of the larger step 3 up. That would hav e the possibility of making the bull market last into 201 3. This is where I had prev iously thought the bear market would begin. But until its prov en, its just a thought. Below is the long term wav e count since 2009, which clearly shows we are in the 3rd step up. The following chart shows the wav e count since September 201 0.
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1 2 -1 2 -1 2 SPX W EEKLY BA RS W IT H W A V E COUNT & CY CLE
1 2 -1 2 -1 2 SPX DA ILY BA RS W IT H W A V E COUNT
12/11/12 T UE The first chart has the last downtrend line connecting 3 peaks. If there is another down sloping line I should draw, it isnt apparent. The market is
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ov erbought and refuses to correct. Thats usually a good sign. But at some point that does run out. Mike Burke said last Saturday that we were entering a two week period of traditional weakness. Later today the market began a correction (down 1 0 SP futures points since 1 1 :30 EST). Well see if it turns into something more meaningful.
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1 2 -1 1 -1 2 RUT 2 0 MIN BA RS
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1 2 -1 1 -1 2 DIA 2 0 MIN BA RS
And lastly is the SOX index (semiconductors). Its count is off from the others. It can lead the market up, but its not unusual for it to peak late. Following a good rally in the SOX, it seems to get ov er ex uberant causing a late rev ersal. This index is often a confirmation in the early stages of a rev ersal that the rally is going somewhere. A flat to mildly up SOX with a good rally in the SP500 is not likely to be sustained. An early bottom in the SOX followed by a strong rally strongly indicates that the market will probably hav e a worthwhile rally .
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1 2 -1 1 -1 2 SOX 2 0 MIN BA RS
The following is an updated chart of the 1 0 day EMA sy stem based on 1 5 minute bars (1 0 day EMA is shown here instead of 5 day ). Notice how this can usually keep y ou inv ested on the right side of the market. Ideally , y ou need a brokerage transaction order algorithm to ex ecute this properly during all hours of the day . Nobody can watch this stuff 24 hours per day (who would want to???) and ex ecute it manually . Y ou need to check with y our broker to see if they hav e something like this av ailable.
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1 2 /1 1 /1 2 1 0 DA Y EMA SY ST EM SP FUT URES 1 5 MIN BA R
12/10/12 MON We hav e been in a consolidation pattern or rolling top for sev eral day s. It appears that we are in 3rd step up and we should better the prior high at 1 425. If this is a rolling top, the new high would be minimal. See the dashed y ellow lines for indications of a possible rev ersal point. A strong thrust through this line would indicate a breakout and the likelihood that we hav e been in a consolidation since December 3rd.
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The white trend lines show that we are still in an uptrend, but its hugging the bottom line closely .
The chart below is the 5 day EMA trading sy stem (see MY CHART S chart #30.4 and notes below this chart). Its a relativ ely good way to stay in the market for the broad mov es. The lower line indicates the amount abov e or below the y ellow EMA line. The upper y ellow line is a 7 0 hour (1 0 day ) EMA instead of the sy stems indicated 5 day EMA (35 hour). Although it doesnt get y ou in or out as quickly , it does hav e fewer whiplashes.
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12/06/12 T HU No posting today as Im busy on a project. 12/05/12 WED 1 1 :00 PST The SP futures chart look like a megaphone formation. 3 lower lows and now 3 higher highs. No charts because Im busy with another project. May be later today . 12/04/12 T UE 1 2:43 PST The correction beginning y esterday has halted at the 50% retracement of the entire decline since 9/1 4/1 2. It is also at the 23.6% retracement of the rally since 1 1 /1 6/1 2. See chart below. It seems likely that we will see more correction before a significant rally dev elops.
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1 2 -0 4 -1 2 SP FUT URES 1 6 0 MIN BA R
12/03/12 MON 2:00 PST We did close near the lows of the day and at a loss.
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1 2 -0 3 -1 2 SP FUT URES 3 MIN BA RS
1 1 :00 PST I forgot to mention that today is probably a rev ersal day where we mov ed to new recov ery highs (since 1 1 /1 6) and then closed at a loss for the day . Naturally we hav e to wait and see if the market is going to close at a loss for the day , but it does seem likely .
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1 0:20 PST It appears that we may hav e finished a step up this morning, counting from 1 1 /28/1 2 (I count 3 steps on the chart). Was this the end of the significant 3 steps up since 1 1 /1 6 or only 2 steps up? Until we take out a significant prior low and break the uptrend channel, its usually considered to be a correction and not a rev ersal of the 1 1 /1 6 bottom (unless y ou want to gamble been there done that many , many times).
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11/30/12 FRI There is an alternate downward channel (y ellow lines) in the 1 st chart. We touched the 62% retracement point and backed off. May be one more attempt at that lev el and then we might correct (???). There is a possible new top channel (white lines) in the 2nd chart. Is step 1 up hiding in the SP futures (3rd chart)? Presently the SOX index clearly shows 3 steps up, with the 3rd step up still in force (4th chart).
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1 1 -3 0 -1 2 SOX INDEX 2 0 MIN BA RS
11/29/12 T HU 1 8:20 PST Semiconductor index with a possible wav e count. This index can lead the market.
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1 1 -2 9 -1 2 SOX 1 0 MIN BA RS
1 2:30 PST From John Murphy , Its also possible that fear of the fiscal cliff is driv ing some money out of the US and into Europe. 1 1 :02 PST A well defined upward channel in the first chart. In the 2nd chart, we are approaching the upper boundary of the down sloping channel in force since 9/1 6/1 2. I might rely on simply posting charts to this blog to display my message. Im unsure at the moment but I will do whatev er is easiest and quickest. The charts I show here are unav ailable on StockCharts.
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11/28/12 WED See the blog for 2 new charts uploaded today . It clearly shows that we are in the area of resistance. The market could manage to mov e ahead here but can it make a sustained mov e??? http://stock-market-observ ations.com/
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11/27 /12 T UE And the correction is probably underway . I sold part two of my Bressert money management sy stem. New Bressert positions are added after each correction.
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11/26/12 MON A possible wav e count to the downside.
1 1 /2 6 /1 2 SP FUT URES 1 2 0 MIN SINCE 9 /1 7 /1 2
In the abov e chart, we are approaching a channel boundary and the 50% rebound lev el. I would ex pect to mov e higher after a correction. But if
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we dont correct, thats a real good sign, ov erbought and stay ing ov erbought. If we hav e completed 5 steps down, we should mov e up in 3 distinct steps. The nex t decline of significance should tell the tale. Up channel chart
1 1 -2 6 -1 2 SP FUT URES 2 0 MIN BA RS SINCE SEP 1 4
*********************** BEGIN NEW WEEK *********************** 11/24/12 SAT 1 5:1 0 The following is from Mike Burke The market is closely following the av erage seasonal pattern and that pattern calls for another 2 weeks of strength. Most of the major indices hav e been up for 5 consecutiv e day s so, for the short term, the market is ov erbought.
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Looking at the oscillators on page 3 and 4, y ou can also see that we are ov erbought. The SP500 is nearing resistance at the 56 day EMA and near the ex treme peak of its 60 minute band. It seems logical that a correction will begin soon. It seem that we should trace out more than a single rally peak before 5th step down takes place. The 20 week cy cle has probably bottomed. If thats true, 5th step down could just be a bottoming step as I said before. A higher low or double bottom would be in line. But I am alway s am on guard for a final waterfall, gotta be aware of all possibilities. 11/20/12 T UE 1 7 :35 Possible wav e count since last Friday s bottom. If this count is correct, it should be complete by the close on Wednesday . That doesnt mean we will begin step 5 down immediately . It means we will hav e a correction.
1 1 -2 0 -1 2 SP FUT URES SINCE 1 1 -1 5 -1 2 1 0 MIN BA RS
1 6:00 & 1 7 :25 Killed the idea of say ing any thing more on this subject
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(what subject??). It wasnt a good idea poking someone in the ey e that I really like. If y ou didnt see the subject matter earlier, its gone forev er. 1 5:33 Notice that bond y ields and the dollar are trending downward. Both began their mov e downward last Friday . I like rising y ields. Higher y ields say that the economy is improv ing or something is going to happen that will improv e the economy . Its gotta be pointing the finger at the politicians. Im usually pointing a finger at the politicians but its not the one they like. 1 0:1 4 Irregularly higher action today . Looks like a correction is under way at the moment. No change in my outlook for the moment, mostly higher for a while before we see a 5th step down. 11/19/12 MON 22:33 I forgot to mention that I sold my first Bressert money management contracts late in the day today . See the blog for an ex planation on Bressert Management. 1 8:38 We hav e had 3 steps up since Friday , followed by a small correction late today . Is the correction ov er??? Possibly , if we are in a 5 step rally since Friday but if it is a 3 step, we will hav e a bit more correction. Regardless, I would think the rally has more legs to go regardless of whether we hav e a 5th step or not. If we hav e just finished step 4 down on Friday morn and the 5th step is to be a bottoming step, we should see more rally before the 5th bottom decline occurs. The flip side of this is that the 5th step is not a bottoming step but a waterfall conclusion. Im going with the bottoming step as long as the politicians dont start fighting. 1 2:57 Mov ed higher after the small 3 step decline. Market is closing on
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the highs. Nice action. Will it hold thru Wednesday s close??? Probably , but well see. 1 0:59 We hav e completed a nice 3 step decline. It doesnt look right for the correction. Either we are going higher immediately or that was just step 1 down. 1 0:30 Good start up . . . and now we are correcting. Well see if the correction has a clear 3 step decline for possible additional purchases. *********************** BEGIN NEW WEEK *********************** 11/17 /12 SAT @1 6:30 From Mike Burke: The market has been following the seasonal pattern quite closely and that pattern calls for a bottom right about now. The market is as ov er sold as it has been at any time in the past y ear so the rally could be significant. 11/16/12 FRI 1 5:1 5 After going thru all my charts, it seems to me that we hav e a bottom probably step 4 bottom. We should rally and then hav e step 5 down a bottoming step. Indicator oscillators look like they hav e a good ov ersold and ripe for rally . Nex t week should be up. Barring that, we would hav e a washout low and then rally . Worst may be ov er for now.
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1 3:30 We did hav e a small break thru of the Thursday highs between 1 3:00 and 1 3:1 5. The futures could just be clearing out the buy orders on a new high but well find out for sure on Sunday afternoon. Here is my best case count for the moment. I do hav e worst-case counts too but they are too ugly for unprotected ey es (may cause strokes and hemorrhages).
9 -1 6 -1 2 SP FUT URES SINCE SEPT PEA K 9 5 MINUT E BA RS
1 2:57 Cant get thru the Thursday highs. Mr Market is gonna think about it ov er the weekend. 9:34 We hav e a higher high but its laboring with minor v olume. Waiting to see if it breaks free. 9:30 Coiling up in a triangle, higher lows and lower highs. Steps 4 & 5 are a quick resolution after a well defined steps 1 -3. If my present 4 & 5
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are really part of an ongoing step 4, we will hav e lotsa trouble ahead. 9:20 The count is possible for a rev ersal but . . . . All we need is higher highs and/or a trendline break. The rally stopped ex actly at the prior high for the futures. I hav e a new trendline for the minor waterfall phase of this decline. Waterfalls are usually in the last phase. 11/15/12 T HU @1 5:1 5 This is one possible wav e count. The 1 , 2 and 3 are no brainers but the 4 and 5 are up for grabs.
1 1 -1 5 -1 2 SP FUT URES FROM SEPT PEA K
@8:50 Are we hav ing fun y et??? 11/14/12 WED @1 3:00 I mov ed the utility chart to #30.0 (featured position on indicator pages). The count there could v ery well be correct. It also gav e an early warning of the forthcoming Sept decline. This chart is not
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good looking. I hav e an attitude problem with confronting the possibility of the end of a 3 of 3. The outcome is too scary to think about in light of what happened in large step 2 down (2007 -2009). I had thought we wouldnt end the bull market until 201 3 and I still hold out hope for that possibility . It may be nothing but WISHFUL thinking. Keep my problems in mind as y ou read my comments becuz they certainly may warp my judgment. I think I hav e certain parameters in place that will force me to deal with this situation before its too late. Apple could be an early warning sy stem and bears watching. @1 1 :1 7 I had 2 round trips during the last 80 minutes for a tiny loss. @1 1 :1 2 There is no bottom here. Well see more action before things are easier. @1 1 :06 No immediate help from the news conference or FED comments. Effects are subtle at the moment. @1 0:48 Y up, were sub-stepping down but we hav e a way s to go before new lows. @1 0:32 Selling off just before Obamas news conference. Will he help or hinder in his comments???? Just noticed that the news conference will not be ov er when the FED comments are released. That should be interesting. @1 0:22 Small turn in place . . . now are we sub-stepping or what??? We watch for higher highs to answer that question. @1 0:07 Small 3 step down ov er the last hour. Is it done or???
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@9:20 I Believ e that we are in the 5th step down. This is a best estimate of where we are on the count. I plan on taking a position at some point here (where???). A lot can go wrong but such is the nature of pay ing y our money and taking y our chances. FED notes are released later today will that hav e an effect I dont see how but ??? Naturally a trendline break will tell us that the trend since 9/1 4 has been broken. A trend break for the entire decline could possibly be signified by a higher high on one of the larger peaks. The last peak on the futures was around 1 435 (SPX lev el is about the same). Dont hav e room but I see rev ersal in other things too. Iv e been wrong before so well see what dev elops. 11/13/12 T UE @1 0:1 1 The SOX on #1 0.6 seems to think that the decline finished. @1 0:01 The futures were down about 1 4 points last night before rev ersing, forming a double bottom (Friday and today ). Rally has run out of steam and is falling back in a correction. The count appears to be in step 4 down but that is ALWAY S dependent on not breaking the downward channel. See what I think the count is since 9/1 4 at:
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1 1 -1 3 -1 2 SP FUT URES SINCE SEP 1 4 T H
11/12/12 MON @1 2:25 PDT No v olume surge on higher high. Im indecisiv e and on the sidelines. @1 0:1 4 PDT Possible double bottom in place and futures sprinting upward. Waiting for a higher high and that does seem likely . @1 0:07 PDT Jeff Saut said: the SPX fell through the 1 390 lev el and if this really is an undercut low like the one we identified on October 4, 201 1 the SPX needs to recapture 1 390 quickly and then sprint abov e it. If not, it probably means we hav e to go through some kind of bottoming process in the 1 300 1 350 zone. @8:57 PST Slow wav e structure unfolding. No v iolation of the Friday lows but fussy wav e count. Fussy enough that I sold my contracts at 4:30 AM last night due to the weak rally . Luckily missed peak by 3/4 point. Old people nev er sleep. Could rebuy soon.
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*********************** BEGIN NEW WEEK *********************** 11/9/12 FRI @1 0:00 PST BEWARE This is an ongoing theme-warning. I literally run-off at the mouth when it comes to scenarios. I talk about lots of would-be scenarios that wont take place for months or possibly arent ev en v alid. Its me thinking-out-loud. By doing this, Ill hit on the scenario that makes best sense to me. Y ou need to watch for similar words to Presently I believ e. Words to that effect indicate my best estimate of whats happening. PRESENTLY I BELIEV E that we are in a 5 step decline that began on September 1 4. I thought this decline would terminate with step 3 down, but that wasnt true. At the 3rd step we did incur a v ery profitable situation. Following Bresserts Sy stem, I took a quick initial surge profit and was liquidated by stops on the other positions (all profitable). There are no positions held at the moment but Im alway s looking for a new entry (short term). 11/8/12 T HU @1 7 :56 PST Y ou know that I hav e been talking about the 3rd step for months (meaning that the bull market is old). I had also stated that I wasnt going to turn bearish early as it was an easy trap to fall into. Now that we fell through 1 390 SPX, Jeff Saut said he was going to rethink his position but he cautions to beware the false penetration low like Oct 4, 201 1 . Meantime Im thinkin and thinkin and thinkin and it aint doin much good.
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Things look clear on chart #40.8 also see Apple on #1 0.4. WOW see here too: http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning center/weekly chart/apple walking in rcas footsteps/ 11/7 /12 WED @1 3:47 PST No election fiasco and things could become brighter if the House is ready to negotiate a compromise on the fiscal cliff. 11/05/12 MON @1 3:50 PST After a v ery profitable period last week and the week before, Im content to sit and let things show me the big trend. @8:21 PST Im waiting for wav e count clarity to assure me that the upside is still intact. Big fear is that a 5 count down has been in progress since Sep. No real sign of that y et. *********************** BEGIN NEW WEEK *********************** 11/02/12 FRI @1 3:38 PDT We hav e corrected past the 62% lev el (since the 25th) and this makes me uneasy becuz thats not normal for a good rally . I hav e no contracts left as ev ery thing had stop points that were taken out. These stops assured certain profit lev els. Im neutral and waiting to reestablish a position, long or short. @1 1 :44 PDT What if step 1 began on the 25th??? In that case, we will hav e a bigger correction than anticipated. Only if a 5 count is taking
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place is there any threat to the upside. @1 1 :1 8 PDT 50% retracement from the 31 st. Didnt stop there, may be 50% from the 29th??? 11/1/12 T HU @7 :45 PDT Last night I was looking at chart #40.9 (amongst other things), which calls for a peak in early Dec. I wondered what a T would predict from the peak to the recent bottom? It came out with a early Dec peak. This enforced chart #40.9, so I bought more contracts last night. Today s news was good and tomorrows employ ment report should also be OK. This thought is based on the declining weekly unemploy ment data. It should be clear sailing for awhile. Chart #40.9 is kinda weird and started out as a play toy but it does seem to hav e some merit. We are in step 2 up since the bottom on Oct 26. 10-31-12 WED @1 0:45 PDT Is my count wrong? Possibly . Do I still think we are likely rev ersing in this general area y es. Bey ond that we will wait and see. It is the end of the quarter and end of the y ear for some institutions and ev ery thing remaining must be done in 1 day . More comments shortly . @1 1 :1 5 PDT There are no new lows in the index es. Some appear to hav e completed 2 of 3 steps down, while others appear to be complete on the downside. Some index es completed bottoms before last Friday and they are showing no damage to their uptrends. As usual, we will see what dev elops but the worse could be ov er. That doesnt mean we wont mov e lower, but the market should be searching for a bottom instead of a freefall zone.
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@1 2:1 8 PDT Mov ing up in a liv ely manner. (Well that died quickly ). @1 2:42 PDT Downside alternativ es are a (1 ) double bottom, (2) a failed last gasp to the downside (v irtually the same as #1 ), or (3) a genuine mov e to the downside marking 4th step down. Jeff Saut is watching for another last gasp downside fakeout like 1 0/4/1 1 . @1 :30 PDT The futures are going to take another run at the lows. Got some to go before new lows. 1 0-30-1 2 TUE @1 2:50 PDT It sure looks like a trendline break of step 3 down. See the chart from the below address. Y ou can copy and paste from the comments (blank area) below this group of charts.
1 0 -3 0 -1 2 SP FUT URES 2 0 Min u t e Ba r s
10/29/12 MON @1 9:25 PDT Futures continue to slide tonight but still hav ent made a
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new low. Waiting for a confirmation of a trendline break or a significant new low. Futures completed 3 small steps up on Friday followed by a small 3 step down on Sunday . Just before the Monday morning hurricane close we had an upward rev ersal in the futures. The Sunday futures did not hav e a low below Friday morn (double bottom in progress???). It appears that we may hav e 5 steps down since 1 0/1 8 and 3 larger steps down since 9/1 4. Watch carefully to see if the Monday morn rev ersal carries to a higher high than Friday , which should mean a larger rev ersal is in force. A trendline break of the decline since 9/1 4 certainly signals a significant rev ersal. *********************** BEGIN NEW WEEK *********************** 10/26/12 FRI @1 3:09 PDT Presently we are in the 3rd step down since 9/1 4. When we end the current decline that began on 1 0/1 7 , the market will rally smartly . Near the close the market began correcting. Well find out Monday if this is a minor rally or the end of the 3 step decline. Sunday trading in the futures could giv e us an early clue. The market has been following the seasonal pattern quite closely and nex t week, on av erage, has been v ery strong seasonally . Mike Burke @1 1 :00 PDT My first phase selling was completed late Friday with a smart profit on AAPL & the SP futures. I use Bressert money management sy stem and nail down initial profits quickly . The nex t 2 parts are liquidated as the count progresses. NO V OLUME FOLLOWopen in browser PRO version
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THRU TO THE UPSIDE. @1 0:33 PDT Were on our way up now. I want to see V OLUME for confirmation of a continuing rev ersal. 8:05 PDT - THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT WE ARE IN THE 3RD STEP DOWN SINCE THE PEAK ON 9/1 4. My message is that the DOWNTREND IS V ERY CLOSE TO ENDING and it will be followed by a good tradable rally . All Rights Reserv ed
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1/03/13 Jeff Saut, Cycles, Gold, Dollar

P os ted J anuary 3 , 2 0 1 3 by Bob Categories: C Y C L E S, J E FF SA U T , U P D A T E
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MARKET MESSAGES 1/03/13 The following is from Jeff Sauts comments of this Monday and Tuesday . Armageddon? December 31, 2012 Monday (excerpt) The call for this week: The American public ought to be chanting the mantra from the 1 97 6 hit movie Netw ork, Im mad as hell and Im not going to take it any more (you can see that Netw ork clip by clicking here: http://w w w .youtube.com/w atch?v=rGIY 5V yj4Y M). And, I dont care if you are a Democrat, Republican, or Druid, w hat has been going on inside the D.C. Beltw ay is a disgrace and hurts We the people. On Friday, because of the shenanigans in D.C., the SPX declined from Thursdays close of 1 41 0.7 0 into a low of 1 384.00. Obviously, that should have cleaned out all of the stop-loss orders below the 1 390 1 400 support level. Thats w hy early this morning the pre-opening futures are up ~5 points to 1 390. If there is no deal by todays close participants should look for a marginal up opening follow ed by attempts to sell stocks off w ith low er prices due by the bell. If there is still no deal by Wednesday, thats w hen the dow nside w ashout should be complete. Accordingly, Kamikaze trading types may buy partial positions on w eakness today looking to fill-out those trading positions on further w eakness Wednesday. Investors, how ever, should be reading their buy list because this feels more like a dow nside
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crescendo rather than the beginning of a w hole new leg to the dow nside. Lessons Learned January 2, 2012 Wednesday (complete) Beginning of the year letters are alw ays hard to w rite because there is a tendency to talk about the year gone by, or w orse, attempt to predict the year ahead. Therefore, w e are titling this years letter in an attempt to share some of the lessons that should have been learned over the past few years. We begin w ith this quote from an Allstate commercial featuring Dennis Haysbert:
Over the past year, w eve learned a lot. Weve learned that meatloaf and Jenga can actually be more fun than reservations and box seats. That w hos around your TV is more important than how big it is. That the most memorable vacations can happen ten feet from your front door. That cars arent for show ing how far w eve come, but for taking us w here w e w ant to go. Weve learned that the best things in life dont cost much at all.
Charles Dickens classic novel begins w ith the quote, It w as the best of times, and it w as the w orst of times. That quote is certainly reflective of the stock market in the year gone by as 201 2 w ent dow n in the books w ith that moniker. To be sure, from the October 201 1 low into the April 201 2 high it w as the best of times w ith the S&P 500 gaining some 32% , and w e w ere bullish. From there, how ever, the equity markets got much harder; and is it any w onder? Indeed, its been said
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that the stock market anticipates events six months in advance. If thats true, around the April peak the SPX started w orrying about the Presidential election and then the fiscal cliff. Subsequently, the SPX declined 1 0.9% from the April high (1 422) into the June low (1 267 ). From there the rally resumed and peaked in September at 1 47 5 before spending the rest of the year in a struggle (see chart on page 3). On the surface the nominal numbers portrayed a great year w ith the SPX sporting a total return of 1 3% +. Y et for most investors it w as a pretty difficult year w ith roughly 90% of professional money managers underperforming the SPX as they w orried about w aning earnings momentum, softening economic statistics, Euroquake, a China debacle, a dysfunctional U.S. government, etc. Of course I personally dont mind the under-performance because many of the folks w ho underperformed did so because they w ere managing risk, w hich is at the centerpiece of my investment philosophy. As often referenced in these missives, investors need to manage the risk, for as Benjamin Graham espoused in his book The Intelligent Investor, The essence of investment management is the management of RISKS, not the management of RETURNS. Well-managed portfolios start w ith this precept. Investors should keep that quote on their w alls so they dont forget the major lessons learned since the 2008 Financial Fiasco. Y et, there are other lessons to be remembered. To that point, Merrill Lynch lost tw o of its best and brightest back in 2009 as Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg left for less constrained environments. During their final w eeks at Merrill they w rote about lessons they have learned over the decades. To w it:
Richard Bernsteins Lessons
1 . Income is important, as are capital gains. Because most investors

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2. 3. 4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9. 1 0.
ignore income opportunities, income may be more important than capital gains. Most stock m arket indicators have never actually been tested. Most dont work. (Bobs em phasis) Most investors time horizons are much too short. Statistics indicate that day trading is largely based on luck. Bull markets are made of risk aversion and undervalued assets. They are not made of cheering and a rush to buy. Diversification doesnt depend on the number of asset classes in a portfolio. Rather, it depends on the correlations betw een the asset classes in a portfolio. Balance sheets are generally more important than are income or cash flow statements. Investors should focus strongly on GAAP accounting, and should pay little attention to pro forma or unaudited financial statements. Investors should be providers of scarce capital. Return on capital is typically highest w here capital is scarce. Investors should research financial history as m uch as possible. (Bobs em phasis) Leverage gives the illusion of w ealth. Saving is w ealth.
David Rosenbergs Lessons
1 . In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined w ith a market call. 2. Never be a slave to the data they are no substitutes for astute observation of the big picture. 3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost alw ays errs on the side of optimism except at the bottom. 4. Fall in love w ith your partner, not your forecast.
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5. 6. 7. 8.
No two cycles are ever the sam e. (Bobs em phasis) Never hide behind your model. Alw ays seek out corroborating evidence Have respect for w hat the markets are telling you.
There w as another savvy seer that left Merrill Lynch, but that w as 21 years ago. At the time Bob Farrell w as considered the best strategist on Wall Street, and w hile he still pens a stock market letter, his lessons learned are as timeless today as they w ere w hen w ritten in 1 992. Bob Farrells Rules (all good rules - Bobs com m ents) 1 . Markets tend to return to the mean over time. 2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction. (Bobs em phasis) 3. There are no new eras excesses are never permanent. 4. Exponential rising and falling m arkets usually go further than you think. (Bobs em phasis) 5. The public buys the m ost at the top and the least at the bottom . (Bobs em phasis) 6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve. 7 . Markets are strongest w hen they are broad and w eakest w hen they narrow to a handful of blue-chips. 8. Bear m arkets have three stages. (Bobs em phasis) 9. When all the experts and forecasts agree som ething else is going to happen. (Bobs em phasis) 1 0. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets. With these lessons in mind, w e w ish you good investing in the New Y ear.
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CY CLES The following is from SentientT rader.com They sell a v ery good cy clic software package. This SPX cy cle scenario calls for a meaningful bottom (1 8 month cy cle) around mid-201 3.
A lt 1 SP5 0 0 -2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
And this scenario say s that we achiev ed a 1 5.8 month cy cle bottom in Nov ember. Which one is correct? If the market is going to forge ahead after the recent bottom, certainly Alt 2 is correct. Well find out after the first correction.
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A lt 2 Na sda q-2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
The gold cy cles predicts peaks and not bottoms. It shows a significant peak coming (probably around mid-201 3).
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GOLD-2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
This longer term gold cy clic chart is predicting a peak around mid-201 3.
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Gold-GC-pea k s-a n a ly sis-1 2 -y r -w eek ly -4 7 -w k -cy cle
The dollar cy cle is indicating a significant bottom in mid-201 3. Gold and the dollar mov e inv ersely to one another, down dollar means up gold.
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USD-2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
1/02/13 Here are a couple of Edson Gould publications (complete PDF files). Decade Cy cle by Edson Gould My Most Im portant Discov ery by Edson Gould And the following is not by Gould but it ties into his important discov ery . Its an ancient book on the Google Book site. Y ou hav e to download it in the format desired. Mem oirs of Ex traordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
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1/02/13 In the 1 2/31 /1 2 message, I showed what appeared to be a completed 3 step down. I kinda think that count worked out OK (understatement). The good news is that we may be in a 5 step up since 1 1 /1 6/1 2. The bad news is that if we turn back down, I would call this a failed breakout and the decline since 1 2/1 9/1 2 was step 1 down. After declining in December, it isnt unusual for the market to be up in the first few day s of January .
Rev isiting the fiscal cliff, the tax package passed both houses after midnight. By doing so, all tax rates had already gone up (pretty silly ). The future cuts in the budget are another question and there could be a real fight brewing ov er that (another stalemate). The democrats apparently want to take new rev enues from higher tax es on those
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families with incomes ov er $450,000 and spend it (dumb). The republicans say NO. It seems pretty obv ious that the republicans hav e got this one correct. But other budget cuts are the real question, do we cut a lot quickly or gradually ??? This is a v ery important question for the economy and our future. Cutting quickly is something that I dont think our economy could absorb. Moderate cuts seem more logical BUT if the economy surprised us and did absorb big cuts well, that would be a rocket for the stock market. If we dont get our national debt GROWTH problem under control, we will be one of those countries that someday is faced with a catastrophic tax increase. This will be shov ed down our throat to sav e the dollar. Without confidence in the dollar, we cant borrow at reasonable interest rates and that would be v ery , v ery bad. The stakes are high and perhaps all of this is part of large step 3 down that I see lay ing in wait for us (its alway s in the distant future . . . until it becomes today ). Remember, ev ery thing isnt the end of the world with large step 3 down. All y ou hav e to do is surv iv e it financially and then inv est in lots of quality things and hav e patience. It will be akin to 1 932 all ov er again. Although there were rough y ears ahead after 1 932, it was the turning point for an incredible fortune (ending in 2000). The fortune that could hav e been made from December 1 97 4 to January 2000 will be dwarfed by this future turn. Edson Gould would div ide the length of the prev ious bull market by 3 and that would be an estimate for the bear market. Using 1 932 as the bottom to the y ear 2000, we hav e 68 y ears, div ided by 3 y ields about 23 y ears for the bear market. 2000 plus 23 y ears giv es us the y ear 2023. If the bottom was 1 942 (this was the end of the 3rd step down from
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1 929). 2000 minus 1 942 is 58 y ears, div iding by 3 giv es us 1 9 y ears. 2000 plus 1 9 y ears is 201 9. I had prev iously estimated 201 8 due to the 1 8 y ear cy cle. So 201 8-201 9 or 2023 is y ears away and if any of this is true (???), we hav e a long time before a final answer. My Charts at StockCharts.com Wav e Counts & Other Goodies Click on any picture or chart to enlarge it 12/31/12

Our politicians are so predictable. The democrats can say the republicans are irresponsible and the republicans can sav e the day by not raising tax es. Each party has their talking point. For those who are reading this blog outside the USA, dont forget that the goofy people are in the House. We hav e a higher quality of goofy in the Senate. But they re the best we can find. OK . . . now whats the rush for an agreement after tonight? Each party is going to want their package and only their package. They might want to wage a protracted war, but the public might hav e something to say about that. It just seems likely that well hav e an agreement soon after tonight. If not, I would be surprised, but DC surprises me all the time. 12/31/12
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12/31/12 Chart for the SP futures, 1 50 minute bars. As I post this, we hav e 7 .5 hours before tax es go up. Ev en if the Senate passes a bill, what will the House do??? The House is where the loose cannons hang out. Im alway s skeptical. Thats what happens when y ou get old, y ou dont believ e in Santa Claus or nuthin.
12/30/12 Y ou all know about the republicans pledge to not raise tax es. If a deal is struck before Jan 1 , income tax es will be raised and the republicans will look bad because they v iolated their tax pledge (cant hav e that). On Jan 1 , the Bush tax cuts ex pire and all tax rates go up. So if a deal can be reached after Jan 1 the end result is that incom e tax es will be lowered. So the republicans hav e got this figured out, let the Bush tax cuts ex pire and then lower incom e tax es. How about that . . . the republican look good by keeping their no new tax es pledge. Seems totally logical to me . . . in a weird kinda way .
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I call these guy s (democrats. and republicans) clowns with good reason. Its so much fun watching American politics at work. As Will Rogers said, we hav e the best politicians that money can buy . Now the flip side of this situation is that no deal is struck for weeks (months???). WOW. Wall Street and inv estors around the world will go nuts because of Congress inability to gov ern during a critical period. Same thing happened during the 201 1 debt crisis. The stock market declined 21 % as a result of that mess. Im old and remember when the debt ceiling used to be raised without any discussion by either side. Of course we hadnt achiev ed 3rd world debt status back then. 12/27 /12 The sky is falling, the sky is falling . . . Chicken Little (aka Bob)
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Ch ick en Lit t le
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1 2 -2 7 -1 2 SPX DA ILY
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1 2 -2 7 -1 2 IND 6 0 MINUT E BA RS
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SP5 0 0 -2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
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GOLD-2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
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1 2 -1 9 -1 2 NA SDA Q 8 0 MIN BA RS
1 2 -1 9 -1 2 SOX 2 0 MIN BA RS
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1 2 -1 9 -1 2 SPX 6 0 MIN BA RS
1 2 -1 9 -1 2 IND 6 0 MIN BA RS
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futures.
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1 2 -1 1 -1 2 RUT 2 0 MIN BA RS
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1 2 -1 1 -1 2 DIA 2 0 MIN BA RS
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1 2 -1 1 -1 2 SOX 2 0 MIN BA RS
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1 1 -2 9 -1 2 SOX 1 0 MIN BA RS
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1/02/13 Edson Gould

P os ted J anuary 2 , 2 0 1 3 by Bob Categories: E D SO N G O U L D , U P D A T E
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MARKET MESSAGES 1/02/13 Here are a couple of Edson Gould publications (complete PDF files). Decade Cy cle by Edson Gould My Most Im portant Discov ery by Edson Gould And the following is not by Gould but it ties into his important discov ery . Its an ancient book on the Google Book site. Y ou hav e to download it in the format desired. Mem oirs of Ex traordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds 1/02/13 In the 1 2/31 /1 2 message, I showed what appeared to be a completed 3 step down. I kinda think that count worked out OK (understatement). The good news is that we may be in a 5 step up since 1 1 /1 6/1 2. The bad news is that if we turn back down, I would call this a failed breakout and the decline since 1 2/1 9/1 2 was step 1 down. After declining in December, it isnt unusual for the market to be up in the first few day s of January .
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Rev isiting the fiscal cliff, the tax package passed both houses after midnight. By doing so, all tax rates had already gone up (pretty silly ). The future cuts in the budget are another question and there could be a real fight brewing ov er that (another stalemate). The democrats apparently want to take new rev enues from higher tax es on those families with incomes ov er $450,000 and spend it (dumb). The republicans say NO. It seems pretty obv ious that the republicans hav e got this one correct. But other budget cuts are the real question, do we cut a lot quickly or gradually ??? This is a v ery important question for the economy and our future. Cutting quickly is something that I dont think our economy could absorb. Moderate cuts seem more logical BUT if the economy surprised us and did absorb big cuts well, that would be a rocket for the stock market. If we dont get our national debt GROWTH problem under control, we will be one of those countries that someday is faced with a catastrophic tax increase. This will be shov ed down our throat to sav e the dollar.
pdfcrowd.com
Without confidence in the dollar, we cant borrow at reasonable interest rates and that would be v ery , v ery bad. The stakes are high and perhaps all of this is part of large step 3 down that I see lay ing in wait for us (its alway s in the distant future . . . until it becomes today ). Remember, ev ery thing isnt the end of the world with large step 3 down. All y ou hav e to do is surv iv e it financially and then inv est in lots of quality things and hav e patience. It will be akin to 1 932 all ov er again. Although there were rough y ears ahead after 1 932, it was the turning point for an incredible fortune (ending in 2000). The fortune that could hav e been made from December 1 97 4 to January 2000 will be dwarfed by this future turn. Edson Gould would div ide the length of the prev ious bull market by 3 and that would be an estimate for the bear market. Using 1 932 as the bottom to the y ear 2000, we hav e 68 y ears, div ided by 3 y ields about 23 y ears for the bear market. 2000 plus 23 y ears giv es us the y ear 2023. If the bottom was 1 942 (this was the end of the 3rd step down from 1 929). 2000 minus 1 942 is 58 y ears, div iding by 3 giv es us 1 9 y ears. 2000 plus 1 9 y ears is 201 9. I had prev iously estimated 201 8 due to the 1 8 y ear cy cle. So 201 8-201 9 or 2023 is y ears away and if any of this is true (???), we hav e a long time before a final answer. My Charts at StockCharts.com Wav e Counts & Other Goodies Click on any picture or chart to enlarge it 12/31/12
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Our politicians are so predictable. The democrats can say the republicans are irresponsible and the republicans can sav e the day by not raising tax es. Each party has their talking point. For those who are reading this blog outside the USA, dont forget that the goofy people are in the House. We hav e a higher quality of goofy in the Senate. But they re the best we can find. OK . . . now whats the rush for an agreement after tonight? Each party is going to want their package and only their package. They might want to wage a protracted war, but the public might hav e something to say about that. It just seems likely that well hav e an agreement soon after tonight. If not, I would be surprised, but DC surprises me all the time. 12/31/12 Chart for the SP futures, 1 50 minute bars. As I post this, we hav e 7 .5 hours before tax es go up. Ev en if the Senate passes a bill, what will the House do??? The House is where the loose cannons hang out. Im alway s skeptical. Thats what happens when y ou get old, y ou dont believ e in Santa Claus or nuthin.
pdfcrowd.com
12/30/12 Y ou all know about the republicans pledge to not raise tax es. If a deal is struck before Jan 1 , income tax es will be raised and the republicans will look bad because they v iolated their tax pledge (cant hav e that). On Jan 1 , the Bush tax cuts ex pire and all tax rates go up. So if a deal can be reached after Jan 1 the end result is that incom e tax es will be lowered. So the republicans hav e got this figured out, let the Bush tax cuts ex pire and then lower incom e tax es. How about that . . . the republican look good by keeping their no new tax es pledge. Seems totally logical to me . . . in a weird kinda way . I call these guy s (democrats. and republicans) clowns with good reason. Its so much fun watching American politics at work. As Will Rogers said, we hav e the best politicians that money can buy . Now the flip side of this situation is that no deal is struck for weeks (months???). WOW. Wall Street and inv estors around the world will go
pdfcrowd.com
nuts because of Congress inability to gov ern during a critical period. Same thing happened during the 201 1 debt crisis. The stock market declined 21 % as a result of that mess. Im old and remember when the debt ceiling used to be raised without any discussion by either side. Of course we hadnt achiev ed 3rd world debt status back then. 12/27 /12 The sky is falling, the sky is falling . . . Chicken Little (aka Bob)
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Ch ick en Lit t le
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1 2 -2 7 -1 2 SPX DA ILY
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1 2 -2 7 -1 2 IND 6 0 MINUT E BA RS
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SP5 0 0 -2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
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GOLD-2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
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1 2 -1 9 -1 2 NA SDA Q 8 0 MIN BA RS
1 2 -1 9 -1 2 SOX 2 0 MIN BA RS
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1 2 -1 9 -1 2 SPX 6 0 MIN BA RS
1 2 -1 9 -1 2 IND 6 0 MIN BA RS
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futures.
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1 2 -1 1 -1 2 RUT 2 0 MIN BA RS
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1 1 -2 9 -1 2 SOX 1 0 MIN BA RS
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1/02/13 Early January Surge

P os ted J anuary 2 , 2 0 1 3 by Bob Categories: U P D A T E
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MARKET MESSAGES 1/02/13 In the 1 2/31 /1 2 message, I showed what appeared to be a completed 3 step down. I kinda think that count worked out OK (understatement). The good news is that we may be in a 5 step up since 1 1 /1 6/1 2. The bad news is that if we turn back down, I would call this a failed breakout and the decline since 1 2/1 9/1 2 was step 1 down. After declining in December, it isnt unusual for the market to be up in the first few day s of January .
Rev isiting the fiscal cliff, the tax package passed both houses after
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midnight. By doing so, all tax rates had already gone up (pretty silly ). The future cuts in the budget are another question and there could be a real fight brewing ov er that (another stalemate). The democrats apparently want to take new rev enues from higher tax es on those families with incomes ov er $450,000 and spend it (dumb). The republicans say NO. It seems pretty obv ious that the republicans hav e got this one correct. But other budget cuts are the real question, do we cut a lot quickly or gradually ??? This is a v ery important question for the economy and our future. Cutting quickly is something that I dont think our economy could absorb. Moderate cuts seem more logical BUT if the economy surprised us and did absorb big cuts well, that would be a rocket for the stock market. If we dont get our national debt GROWTH problem under control, we will be one of those countries that someday is faced with a catastrophic tax increase. This will be shov ed down our throat to sav e the dollar. Without confidence in the dollar, we cant borrow at reasonable interest rates and that would be v ery , v ery bad. The stakes are high and perhaps all of this is part of large step 3 down that I see lay ing in wait for us (its alway s in the distant future . . . until it becomes today ). Remember, ev ery thing isnt the end of the world with large step 3 down. All y ou hav e to do is surv iv e it financially and then inv est in lots of quality things and hav e patience. It will be akin to 1 932 all ov er again. Although there were rough y ears ahead after 1 932, it was the turning point for an incredible fortune (ending in 2000). The fortune that could hav e been made from December 1 97 4 to January 2000 will be dwarfed by this future turn. Edson Gould would div ide the length of the prev ious bull market by 3
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and that would be an estimate for the bear market. Using 1 932 as the bottom to the y ear 2000, we hav e 68 y ears, div ided by 3 y ields about 23 y ears for the bear market. 2000 plus 23 y ears giv es us the y ear 2023. If the bottom was 1 942 (this was the end of the 3rd step down from 1 929). 2000 minus 1 942 is 58 y ears, div iding by 3 giv es us 1 9 y ears. 2000 plus 1 9 y ears is 201 9. I had prev iously estimated 201 8 due to the 1 8 y ear cy cle. So 201 8-201 9 or 2023 is y ears away and if any of this is true (???), we hav e a long time before a final answer. My Charts at StockCharts.com Wav e Counts & Other Goodies Click on any picture or chart to enlarge it 12/31/12

Our politicians are so predictable. The democrats can say the republicans are irresponsible and the republicans can sav e the day by not raising tax es. Each party has their talking point. For those who are reading this blog outside the USA, dont forget that the goofy people are in the House. We hav e a higher quality of goofy in the Senate. But they re the best we can find. OK . . . now whats the rush for an agreement after tonight? Each party is going to want their package and only their package. They might want to wage a protracted war, but the public might hav e something to say about
pdfcrowd.com
that. It just seems likely that well hav e an agreement soon after tonight. If not, I would be surprised, but DC surprises me all the time. 12/31/12 Chart for the SP futures, 1 50 minute bars. As I post this, we hav e 7 .5 hours before tax es go up. Ev en if the Senate passes a bill, what will the House do??? The House is where the loose cannons hang out. Im alway s skeptical. Thats what happens when y ou get old, y ou dont believ e in Santa Claus or nuthin.
12/30/12 Y ou all know about the republicans pledge to not raise tax es. If a deal is struck before Jan 1 , income tax es will be raised and the republicans will look bad because they v iolated their tax pledge (cant hav e that). On Jan 1 , the Bush tax cuts ex pire and all tax rates go up. So if a deal can be
pdfcrowd.com
reached after Jan 1 the end result is that incom e tax es will be lowered. So the republicans hav e got this figured out, let the Bush tax cuts ex pire and then lower incom e tax es. How about that . . . the republican look good by keeping their no new tax es pledge. Seems totally logical to me . . . in a weird kinda way . I call these guy s (democrats. and republicans) clowns with good reason. Its so much fun watching American politics at work. As Will Rogers said, we hav e the best politicians that money can buy . Now the flip side of this situation is that no deal is struck for weeks (months???). WOW. Wall Street and inv estors around the world will go nuts because of Congress inability to gov ern during a critical period. Same thing happened during the 201 1 debt crisis. The stock market declined 21 % as a result of that mess. Im old and remember when the debt ceiling used to be raised without any discussion by either side. Of course we hadnt achiev ed 3rd world debt status back then. 12/27 /12 The sky is falling, the sky is falling . . . Chicken Little (aka Bob)
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Ch ick en Lit t le
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1 2 -2 7 -1 2 SPX DA ILY
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1 2 -2 7 -1 2 IND 6 0 MINUT E BA RS
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SP5 0 0 -2 0 1 2 -1 2 -2 2
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12/31/12 Told You So

P os ted D ec ember 3 1 , 2 0 1 2 by Bob Categories: U P D A T E
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MARKET MESSAGES 12/31/12 HAPPY NEW Y EAR T O ALL ????

Our politicians are so predictable. The democrats can say the republicans are irresponsible and the republicans can sav e the day by not raising tax es. Each party has their talking point. For those who are reading this blog outside the USA, dont forget that the goofy people are in the House. We hav e a higher quality of goofy in the Senate. But they re the best we can find. OK . . . now whats the rush for an agreement after tonight? Each party is going to want their package and only their package. They might want to wage a protracted war, but the public might hav e something to say about that. It just seems likely that well hav e an agreement soon after tonight. If not, I would be surprised, but DC surprises me all the time. My Charts at StockCharts.com Wav e Counts & Other Goodies
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Click on any picture or chart to enlarge it 12/31/12 Chart for the SP futures, 1 50 minute bars. As I post this, we hav e 7 .5 hours before tax es go up. Ev en if the Senate passes a bill, what will the House do??? The House is where the loose cannons hang out. Im alway s skeptical. Thats what happens when y ou get old, y ou dont believ e in Santa Claus or nuthin.
12/30/12 Y ou all know about the republicans pledge to not raise tax es. If a deal is struck before Jan 1 , income tax es will be raised and the republicans will look bad because they v iolated their tax pledge (cant hav e that). On Jan 1 , the Bush tax cuts ex pire and all tax rates go up. So if a deal can be reached after Jan 1 the end result is that incom e tax es will be lowered. So the republicans hav e got this figured out, let the Bush
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tax cuts ex pire and then lower incom e tax es. How about that . . . the republican look good by keeping their no new tax es pledge. Seems totally logical to me . . . in a weird kinda way . I call these guy s (democrats. and republicans) clowns with good reason. Its so much fun watching American politics at work. As Will Rogers said, we hav e the best politicians that money can buy . Now the flip side of this situation is that no deal is struck for weeks (months???). WOW. Wall Street and inv estors around the world will go nuts because of Congress inability to gov ern during a critical period. Same thing happened during the 201 1 debt crisis. The stock market declined 21 % as a result of that mess. Im old and remember when the debt ceiling used to be raised without any discussion by either side. Of course we hadnt achiev ed 3rd world debt status back then. 12/27 /12 The sky is falling, the sky is falling . . . Chicken Little (aka Bob)
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12/31/12 Fiscal Cliff Solved Humbug????

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My Charts at StockCharts.com Wav e Counts & Other Goodies Click on any picture or chart to enlarge it MARKET MESSAGES 12/31/12 HAPPY NEW Y EAR T O ALL Chart for the SP futures, 1 50 minute bars. As I post this, we hav e 7 .5 hours before tax es go up. Ev en if the Senate passes a bill, what will the House do??? The House is where the loose cannons hang out. Im alway s skeptical. Thats what happens when y ou get old, y ou dont believ e in Santa Claus or nuthin.
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12/30/12 Y ou all know about the republicans pledge to not raise tax es. If a deal is struck before Jan 1 , income tax es will be raised and the republicans will look bad because they v iolated their tax pledge (cant hav e that). On Jan 1 , the Bush tax cuts ex pire and all tax rates go up. So if a deal can be reached after Jan 1 the end result is that incom e tax es will be lowered. So the republicans hav e got this figured out, let the Bush tax cuts ex pire and then lower incom e tax es. How about that . . . the republican look good by keeping their no new tax es pledge. Seems totally logical to me . . . in a weird kinda way . I call these guy s (democrats. and republicans) clowns with good reason. Its so much fun watching American politics at work. As Will Rogers said, we hav e the best politicians that money can buy . Now the flip side of this situation is that no deal is struck for weeks (months???). WOW. Wall Street and inv estors around the world will go
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12/30/12 Fiscal Cliff Problems

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My Charts at StockCharts.com Wav e Counts & Other Goodies Click on any picture or chart to enlarge it MARKET MESSAGES 12/30/12 HAPPY NEW Y EAR T O ALL Y ou all know about the republicans pledge to not raise tax es. If a deal is struck before Jan 1 , income tax es will be raised and the republicans will look bad because they v iolated their tax pledge (cant hav e that). On Jan 1 , the Bush tax cuts ex pire and all tax rates go up. So if a deal can be reached after Jan 1 the end result is that incom e tax es will be lowered. So the republicans hav e got this figured out, let the Bush tax cuts ex pire and then lower incom e tax es. How about that . . . the republican look good by keeping their no new tax es pledge. Seems totally logical to me . . . in a weird kinda way . I call these guy s (democrats. and republicans) clowns with good reason. Its so much fun watching American politics at work. As Will Rogers said, we hav e the best politicians that money can buy . Now the flip side of this situation is that no deal is struck for weeks (months???). WOW. Wall Street and inv estors around the world will go
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Stock Market Trends & Observations

1/04/13 Saw Tooth Top ???

But the NASDAQ has already started down.

12/31/12 Fiscal Cliff Solved Humbug???? 12/30/12 Fiscal Cliff Problems

And Apple is one sick puppy .

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The nex t chart shows an env elope limiting the upside.

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MARKET AXIOMS & QUOT ES

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David Rosenbergs Lessons

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About T his Blog

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NO TAX VOTE IN HOUSE TONIGHT; US POISED TO GO OVER FISCAL CLIFF

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Ghost flames are obv ious in this picture.

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