EXPLORATION OF ADVANCED TECHNIQUES FOR TOWER CONTROLLER MODELING BRIEF HISTORY OF TOOLS FOR SYSTEM DESIGN, MODELING AND

SIMULATION Six major Periods of approaches to design can be identified based on available hardware and on the method of applying the hardware. They are: 1. Before Analog Computers (1940 to 1950), 2. Analog Computers running Differential Equations (DE's) (1947 to 1970), 3. Digital Computers, numeric solution of DE's (1960 to present), 4. Digital Computers, discrete event simulation (1965 to present), 5. Digital Computers, expert systems (1975 to present), and 6. Digital Computers, soft computing (1985 to present). Period 1 was characterized by use of closed-form algebraic solutions to sets of differential equations. Linear differential equations were solved using LaPlace transforms and graphical techniques. Pole-Zero, root-locus, and Bode plots were used to predict system stability and performance. Special slide rules and nomographs were available for computing and plotting dynamic system response. After a system design had been worked out on paper, a physical, "nuts and bolts" engineering model was built and tested to confirm and refine the "paper" design. No dynamic simulations were possible during this period. Period 1 also represents the time when queuing theory was developed to handle complex systems that involve users and servers. Closed-form algebraic solutions were developed using various statistical distributions (Poisson, hypergeometric, etc.) Period 2 used the techniques of Period 1 but added the capability of wiring the set of differential equations (the system's mathematical model) on an analog computer. A seminal article of this Period is entitled, "Analysis of Problems in Dynamics by Electronic Circuits" (Ragazzini et al 1947). Early analog computers consisted of vacuum tube differential operational amplifiiers, potentiometers, capacitors, and patch panels for interconnecting the components. A limited number of nonlinear effects could be dynamically simulated with zener diodes, time-delaying tape recorders, etc; but the major emphasis was on linear differential equations. With an analog computer, the designer could vary system parameters by turning knobs and monitor the system behavior on a multi-channel recorder or oscilloscope. This provided instant feedback on the effects of changes to the coefficients and terms of the differential equations and allowed rapid optimization of a system. In Period 3, differential equations were rewritten as difference equations and solved using numerical techniques on a digital computer. During the early part of this Period most digital computers were used in the batch mode, eliminating the possibility of on-line, real-time interactive design of dynamic systems, a convenience that was afforded by the

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use of analog computers With remote terminals and then personal computers, interactive dynamic simulations again became possible. In Period 4, digital computers began to be used for discrete event simulations. A discrete event simulation can use a descriptive (nonmathematical) model of the system. It is therefore free to model much more complex, nonlinear systems with multiple inputs and outputs. SIMSCRIPT and GPSS were early languages for programming discrete event simulations (Gordon, 1969, 2nd Ed 1978). Standard, "hard", or "crisp" discrete event simulations typically use Boolean (not fuzzy) logic. In addition, they tend not to be adaptive or self-optimizing. Period 5 used digital computers to represent expert knowledge. Knowledge bases were collected and entered into computer structures, which permitted the computer to draw conclusions and make recommendations. The standard expert system has been called "brittle" because incomplete input data can lead to incorrect or to no conclusions. This brittleness was due to the use of IF-Then rules with crisp Boolean (not fuzzy) logic. Period 6, which has been called "soft computing" or "bio-computing" (see Zadeh, 1994), is characterized by the use of advanced techniques. Artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM), genetic algorithms, automata theory are all fields that have burgeoned since 1985. Kosko (1992) presents an excellent theoretical view of many of these new techniques. These techniques, when combined with those from Periods 4 and 5, can overcome the limitations of these earlier approaches. The new techniques produce applications which can be more robust, self-optimizing, and adaptive. Despite sometimes excessive hyperbole over some of these "new" techniques, they all had precursors from which they evolved. For instance, factor analysis permits the recognition of patterns in data, i.e., which variables tend to be related to each other. Factor analysis (Thurstone, 1931, 1947) uses linear correlation techniques. Neural networks "recognize" patterns in a similar fashion to factor analysis but the neural network can also represent nonlinear relationships. Factor analysis was used by Mr. Rosenberg in three major studies: (Maurer et al, 1982), (Rosenberg and Landis, 1968), and (Rosenberg and Silver, 1968). A study reported in Landis, Silver and Jones (1967) used multidimensional viewpoint analysis, an approach similar to factor analysis, to determine how controllers perceived different air traffic situations. The major innovations of Period 6, neural nets, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms have all been used in related manners. Kosko showed that neural nets could be used to determine the optimum fuzzy scale categories. He also showed that the weights on the nodes in the hidden layer of a net are analogous to fuzzy categories. In addition, these nodal weights can also be interpreted as high order "concepts" or "patterns" which appear as factors in a multiple factor analysis. Further, genetic algorithms have been used to find the optimum number of hidden layers in a neural net and the optimum numbers of nodes within the hidden layers. SOFT COMPUTING AND THE AIR TRAFFIC GROUND CONTROLLER MODEL

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Gauch (1993) points out that one of the beneficial uses of a model is the reduction of noise in the data. A model, whether a differential equation, a written description, or a computer program provides information on what the expected behavior of the system will be. Real world data often imposes impossible loads on the capability of digital computers. One criticism of Period 6 innovations is that many of them work only on "toy" problems. Gauch (1992) provides a solution to the target-tracking problem modeling or predicting future path and position of thousands of targets, certainly not a toy problem) with a clever Period 4 algorithm. Clymer et al (1992) describe an approach to modeling airport air traffic control that utilizes many of the new techniques from Period 6. Clymer (1990) and Corey and Clymer (1991) describe the OpEM design method that they state facilitates the design of a descriptive discrete event simulation model. Harrison et al (1994), in an FAATC sponsored effort, provide an overview of aviationrelated artificial intelligence approaches for the above Periods 4, 5, and 6. They describe a wide range of methods. It is likely that in future, what we see as innovations will develop into standard approaches, without the special labels and hype. We will explore the approach taken by Clymer et al (1992) and other advanced Period 6 techniques for designing the controller capacity model. Considerations of compatibility with existing airport capacity models, of ease of identifying and establishing parameter values, practicability, and ability to handle "real" (as opposed to "toy") problems will be central to our effort.

REFERENCES Clymer, J. R., Corey, P. D., and Gardner, J. A., Discrete Event Fuzzy Airport Control, pp. 343 IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 22, No. 2, March/April 1992. Clymer, J. R., System Design Using OpEM Inductive/Adaptive Expert System Controller, in IASTED Int. J. Modeling Simulation, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 129-136, 1990. Corey, P. D., and Clymer, J. R., Discrete Event Simulation of Object Movement and Interactions, in Simulation, San Diego, CA, The Society of Computer Simulation International, Vol 56, No. 3, pp. 167-174, Mar. 1991. Gauch, H. G. Jr., Prediction, Pasimony and Noise, American Scientist, Vol. 81, pp. 468474, Sep.-Oct. 1993. Gordon, G., System Simulation, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1969 (2nd Ed, 1978).

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Harrison, L., Saunders, P., and Janowitz, J., Artificial Intelligence with Applications for Aircraft, Final Report No. DOT/FAA/CT-94/41, FAA Technical Center, August 1994. Kosko, B., Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems, Prentice-Hall Publishing. Co., Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1992. Landis, D., Silver, C. A., Jones, J. M., "Level of Proficiency and Multidimensional Viewpoints about Problem Similarity (in Air Traffic Controllers)", JOURNAL OF APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp. 216-222, 1967. (Rosenberg participated in the data collection at FAA Oberlin Air Route Traffic Control Center and the multidimensional scaling data analysis.) Maurer, J., Matos, R., Rosenberg, B. L., Sluka, A., Lyon, H., Plisko, J., and Yulo, C., Mexico City Graphic Study. DOT/FAA/CT-82/17, 146 pages, 3/82, Rosenberg designed the study, wrote the questionnaires, participated in data collection, performed Factor Analyses and ANOVAs, wrote the statistical portion of the report and briefed SENEAM on the results. Ragazzini, J. R., Julie, L., et al, "Analysis of Problems in Dynamics by Electronic Circuits", Proceedings of the I.R.E., May 1947. Rosenberg, B. and Landis, D., "A Factor Analytic Study of Activity Patterns over Twenty Muscles Measured during a Four-Hour Tracking Task", in the Proceedings of the IEEE 9th Symposium on Human Factors, Washington D.C., 5/68. Rosenberg, B. L. and Silver, C., The Relationship between Distributed Skeletal-Muscle Activity and Long-Term Tracking Performance: A Test of the Muscle Recruitment Hypothesis of Fatigue Compensation. FIRL Report No. 1-198, 50 pages, 4/68. Thurstone, L. L., Multiple Factor Analysis, Psychological Review, XXXVIII, pp. 406427, Sep 1931 Thurstone, L. L., Multiple Factor Analysis: A Development and Expansion of 'The Vectors of the Mind', The Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 1947. Uhlmann, J. K., Algorithms for Multiple-Target Tracking, American Scientist, pp. 128141, Vol. 80, Mar-Apr, 1992. Zadeh, L. A., Fuzzy Logic, Neural Networks, and Soft Computing, Communications of the ACM, pp. 77-84, Vol. 37, No. 3, March 1994.

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CONSULTANT'S RESUME Bruce L. Rosenberg PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Federal Aviation Administration Technical Center (FAATC) GS180-14 Senior Engineering Research Psychologist, 10/10/69 to 3/31/95 T&E of the VSCS comm replacement for the WEC0-300, major responsibility for human factors and user suitability questionnaires and conduct of stability tests; ETABS OT&E; developed POSWAT technology to do research on controller and pilot workload; major Mexico City terminal area/airspace graphic design study; taught courses on use of neural nets at FAATC. Franklin Institute Research Laboratories (FIRL) Research Engineer, 8/1/63 to 8/10/69 Research on controller skill structure, math modeling of helicopter gunner, time-domain modeling of the antiaircraft gunner, patent on dilatant impact absorber, studied effect of muscle recruitment compensation for task-induced fatigue, math modeling of freeze drying. SKILLS, KNOWLEDGE, and ACCOMPLISHMENTS - Proposed, Planned, Organized, and Conducted FAA R&D and T&E programs - Expert in Design of Experiments, Statistical Analysis, Tech Reports - Authored 64 reports and papers at FAATC, 25 reports and papers at FIRL - Accomplished Computer Programmer: Ada, C++, C, Pascal, Basic, Assembly - Wrote 8 major programs, ScenGen.pas invaluable for VSCS stability test - Excel in Public Speaking, Scientific Presentations, Tech Briefings - Teaching (SE w ADA, Human Factors, Neural Nets & Fuzzy Logic, IBM PCS) - Awarded 2 patents, 3 patent applications, 14 invention disclosures - USAF 3.5 years as a Sight and Radar Technician, Tactical Air Command - Well-versed in Management, Labor Relations, and Human Relations issues EDUCATION Monmouth College, MS Software Engineering, currently enrolled Temple University, MA Experimental Psychology/Statistics, 1969 Sensory Modalities, Problem Solving & Factor Analysis of Muscle Groups. University of Calif at Santa Barbara, BA Psychology/Mathematics, 1963 Resch asst in study of target tracking movements. Thermal brain study. PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIPS

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IEEE, (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers), Past Chairman Sigma Xi, (Research Society of America (RESA)) ITEA, (International Test and Evaluation Association) Toastmasters International, ATM, Past President ASI, (American Society of Inventors), Past National President

RELATED COURSES TAUGHT AND LECTURES PRESENTED Taught a 3-credit college-level course, CISM-265, SOFTWARE ENGINEERING WITH ADA, at Atlantic Community College, N.J. Spring '94. Taught 3 four-day classes of FAATC In-House Course No. 81353, "Introduction to Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic and Genetic Algorithms", 3/28 to 31, 5/2 to 5, and 9/12 to 15, '94 Presented a talk on "Absolute Vs. Approximate Reasoning in Fuzzy Systems" to the IEEE Computer Society, South Jersey Chapter, monthly meeting 3/3/93. Presented a talk on "Artificial Neural Networks" to the IEEE Computer Society, South Jersey Chapter, monthly meeting 5/22/91.

RELATED COURSES TAKEN Mathematical Foundations, SE501P1, 3 credits, Monmouth College, Fall '94. Programming In C++", FAATC In-Course #81030, May 20 to June 3, '94 Programming In C, Advanced", FAATC In-Course #81030, Nov 29 to Dec 7, '93 Discrete Event Simulation, SE540P1, 3 credits, Monmouth College, Spring '93. Digital Signals & Filters, EE-330:521, Rutgers Univ., audited, Fall '92. Computer Programming - Data Structures Using C, CIS-257, 3 credits, Atlantic Community College, Spring '92.

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