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Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Cambodia to Release Thai Spies Who Benefits? Carlyle A. Thayer January 10, 2013

[client name deleted] The Cambodian government has just released a statement that Thai yellow shirt "spies" Veera and Ratree will see their sentences reduced and will be released by Royal Pardon next month, around the time of King Sihanouk's funeral. Given all that is going on with the democrats and the politicization of the upcoming International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision on Preah Vihear Temple; how much goodwill you think this might buy Prime Minister Yingluck and what the political ramifications might be both for Thailand and Cambodia? ANSWER: The news of the Royal Pardon for Veera and Ratree will diffuse one potential issue between the yellow shirts and the Yingluck government in advance of the ICJ decision. The Yingluck government can claim that good relations with Cambodia has resulted in their pardon. This closes the book on potential yellow shirt pressure for the government to take action. But the Royal Pardon will not take the intensity out of Thai nationalist feeling that the original 1962 decision on Preah Vihear was flawed. The Yingluck government has other more serious issues to deal with in its political confrontation with the yellow shirt movement accounting for the violence following the 2006 military coup and a possible amnesty for Thaksin. The news of the Royal Pardon is a goodwill gesture on Cambodias part. It was a shrewd decision because it removed a potential irritant in advance of the ICJ decision and demonstrated that it is possible for the two national leaders, Hun Sen and Yingluck, to do business with each other. Too much should not be made of the Royal Pardon, however. The ICJ decision is sure to flame past animosities.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia to Release Thai Spies Who Benefits?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 10, 2013.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Thailand: Will Court Ruling on Preah Vihear Provoke Political Unrest? Carlyle A. Thayer January 2, 2013

[client name deleted] The Bangkok Post is reporting that the Thai Foreign Ministry is preparing a public awareness campaign ahead of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on Preah Vihear this year. The Thai government obviously thinks the ICJ ruling will not turn out in their favor. They are worried that the opposition groups will use the negative ruling to stir unrest. Could you please provide your assessment of the following: 1) Is the ruling a big enough deal that it could create chaos should it go against Thailand? ANSWER: If the ICJ does make a final decision on who has sovereignty over the territory surrounding Preah Vihear, and decides in Cambodias favour, this could well provoke a protest by the yellow shirt movement. This would be a reminder of the 1962 decision that went against Thailand. But the decision on Preah Vihear is only one of a number of issues that could cause political unrest; the other issues include apportioning blame and punishment for the 2006 coup, subsequent killings of demonstrators, and possible amnesty for Thaksin Shinwatra. It is any combination of these issues that is likely to provoke political unrest. 2) Do you think this shows that the Thais are expecting to lose this issue? ANSWER: Thailand has argued that there is no need for the International Court of Justice to consider the matter and that Thailand has complied with the ICJs requests up to this point. It is likely the ICJ will extend its 1962 decision over who owns Preah Vihear to the grounds surrounding the temple. The fact that the ICJ is proceeding to act on Cambodias request is not a favourable sign for Thailand. 3) Why does it seem like they are giving up so easily? Do they want to just wash their hands of this whole mess? ANSWER: Thailand is mainly motivated to prevent the border issue from destabilizing domestic politics. Continued tension and friction along the border with Cambodia does not serve Thailands interests. Prime Minister Yinlucks government wants good relations with Cambodia. Cambodia is being cooperative. The Thai government is undoubtedly under diplomatic pressure from both Beijing and Washington to settle this matter peacefully. It is my assessment that the Yinluck government has other priorities and does not want the border issue to become a festering sore.

2 Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Thailand: Will Court Ruling on Preah Vihear Provoke Political Unrest?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 2, 2013.

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