A ST 521 SAMPLING METHODOLOGY SYLLABUS, FALL 2011

TIME & LOCATION: Lecture Lab TUTH M 2:35-3:50 1:30- 3:20 BC111 GN218A

Labs are used primarily to discuss homework and exams and to execute the class project, but may be partially used for lecture. Class meets from August 18- October 27 and is 3 credits. Instructor: Bill Gould, Office: GU 211, Phone: 646-3986 Office Hours: TU,TH 4:00-5:00, OR BY APPOINTMENT Prerequisite: EST456, EST 465, or EST 502 or EST 505 or consent of instructor. Text (required): Thompson, S. K. (2002) Sampling. John Wiley & Sons. Second Edition You are expected to have read the assignments before class; lectures are more valuable as a result. _____________________________________________________________________________ _ Course Description: This course presents the basic tools and fundamental concepts of sampling. Emphasis is placed on understanding the concepts and applications to practical problems. Design-based sampling is emphasized, but model-based sampling is also introduced. Attendance: Strongly encouraged; You are responsible for obtaining notes, assignments, etc., from other students if you miss class. The professor reserves the right to adjust reading assignments, homework, etc., based on the progress of the class. Make Up Policy University policy states that "Students making satisfactory progress in their classes will be excused from classes when they are representing New Mexico State University on a university sponsored event (e.g., ASNMSU President represents NMSU at legislative session, student-athletes competing in NMSU scheduled athletic events or education field trips and conferences). Authorized absences do not relieve the student of class responsibilities. Prior written notice of the authorized absence must be provided to the instructor by the sponsoring department." Unless absences are excused, any late work will be severely penalized except under extenuating circumstances. Important Dates: The last day to drop the course without record is September 2. The last day to drop with a W is October 11, 2011. The Final Exam will be held Monday, October 31st, 1:303:20pm in GN218A. Grading: There are two exams (worth 30% each), a class project (20%), and homework (20%) on which you will be graded. Tentative exam dates are Sept. 26 and October 31. The typical grading scale is used: 100-90: A; 89-80: B; 79-70: C; 69-60: D; <60: F A grade of C or higher must be obtained to receive an S rating for an S/U rating.

ADA statement: If you have or think you may have a disability that interferes with your academic progress, you are encouraged to contact the Student Accessibility Services (SAS) at 646-6840 (V) or 646-1918 (TTY) located in Corbett Center, Room 244 or email at sas@nmsu.edu with any questions you may have on student issues related to the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA and/or Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act). Students requesting accommodations and/or services relating to a disability may seek assistance from the SAS Office located in Corbett Center, Room 244. All medical information will be treated confidentially. Questions regarding NMSU's Non-discrimination Policy and discrimination complaints should be referred to Gerard Nevarez, Office of Institutional Equity, 575-646-3635 Academic Misconduct is not tolerated and will be subject to disciplinary action (see guidelines in student handbook). Academic misconduct includes but is not limited to cheating or knowingly assisting another student in committing an act of cheating and/or plagiarism. A grade of zero will be assigned to any persons/assignments resulting from academic misconduct. Class Project Summary You each will be given a map of the NMSU campus on which I have delineated a grid of sampling units. You must select a simple random sample of plots to survey from the campus map provided. The purpose of the sampling is to estimate the number of trees on campus. Much of the lab time will be spent conducting the sampling effort in your area. A written report must be submitted to me that presents the objectives of the work, clearly defines the target population, the sampling frame, and the sampling units. Specific procedures to follow and on-the-ground sampling issues will be discussed during the semester. Final and Incomplete Grades Grades are normally available to students on the web within a day or two of the deadline for submitting grades. Under university policy, incompletes may be given only if a student has a passing grade at mid-semester (the last day to withdraw from a class) and is precluded from successful completion of the second half of the course by a documented illness, documented death, family crisis or other similar circumstances beyond the student's control. An incomplete should not be given to avoid assigning a grade for marginal or failing work. Requirements for removal of the I grade must be clearly stated on the I grade form and a copy of the form must be provided to the student.

Course Outline*: * Instructor reserves the right to adjust material coverage and homework. Chapter 1. Introduction Definition of sampling, population, sampling units, frame, probability-based sampling, etc. Model-based vs. Design-based sampling. Concepts of bias, precision, mean square error. HW: handout #1 Chapter 2. Simple Random Sampling Methods for taking simple random samples, Estimation of mean, total and respective variances and estimated variances. Finite population variance, sampling with replacement, derivations. HW: handout #2 & 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4 Chapter 3. Confidence Intervals Construction and interpretation, finite population Central Limit Theorem HW: 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 Chapter 4. Sample Size Factors involved and calculations for population mean and total. HW: 4.1, 4.2 & handout #4 Chapter 5. Proportions and subpopulation estimation Properties of proportions, approximate and exact confidence intervals, sample size estimation, subpopulation estimation. HW: 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 Chapter 6. Unequal probability sampling With replacement: Hansen-Hurwitz estimator, with or without replacement: HorvitzThompson estimator. HW: 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 & handout #5 Chapter 11. Stratified random sampling Sample allocation: proportional, optimal, Neyman. Post stratification. HW: Handout, 11.1, 11.2 & handout #4 Chapter 12. Cluster sampling, systematic sampling Simple random, probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. HW: 12.1, 12.2, 12.5 Chapter 13. Multistage sampling Simple random at each stage, PPS sampling of primary units. HW: 13.1 & handout #5 Chapters 7 and 8 (and section 2.7). Ratio Estimation and Regression Estimation Use of auxiliary information, ratio estimator, models in ratio estimation. HW: 7.1, 7.2, 7.3 Linear regression estimator, precision comparison, model-based intro. HW: 8.1 & handout #6 Chapter 14. Double Sampling (Time permitting) Ratio estimation and allocation in double sampling. HW: 14.1(a)

EST 521 Learning Objectives- Introduction and Chapter 1 List the advantages of sampling compared with a census. Distinguish between a target population and a sampled population when appropriate. Recognize a sampling unit and propose appropriate sampling frames for selecting these units. List the advantages of probability-based samples and classify nonprobability samples into categories. Distinguish between sampling error and nonsampling sources of error. Paraphrase the concepts of bias, precision, accuracy, and consistency. Learning Objectives- Chapter 2 Simple Random Sample Describe the 2 properties that constitute a simple random sample. Determine the probability that a sampling unit is included in a SRS of size n. Apply the procedure for selecting a SRS to any sampling frame. Prove that the sample mean from a SRS is an unbiased estimator of the population mean. Determine if the sample variance (or std. dev.) is an unbiased estimator of the finite population variance (or std. dev.). Apply Cornfields method of using an indicator variable in deriving estimators of variance. Justify the choice of sampling without or with replacement in certain scenarios. Learning Objectives- Chapter 3 Confidence Intervals Explain what a confidence interval represents and how it should be interpreted. Construct confidence intervals for SRS estimators of population mean and total. Explain what the actual coverage of a confidence interval method is. List methods of confidence interval construction when the estimator is nonnormal. Learning Objectives- Chapter 4 Sample Size Estimation Explain the components underlying a margin of error (interval estimator framework). Compute the estimated sample size for estimating a population mean (or total) within specified conditions. Explain the difference in finite and infinite population approaches to sample size estimation Use a relative margin of error approach to sample size estimation.

Learning Objectives- Chapter 5 Proportions Explain the similarity in estimating a population proportion and population mean. Judge when to use which of 3 confidence interval construction methods for proportions. Estimate the necessary sample size for estimating a population proportion within specified conditions. Learning Objectives- Chapter 6 Unequal Probability Sampling Distinguish between equal probability and unequal probability samples. Propose situations under which unequal probability sampling is reasonable. Compute the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator of the population total and its estimated variance. Prove the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator is unbiased. Explain the derivation of the variance estimator. Demonstrate the use of probability proportional to size sampling and modify the HansenHurwitz estimator accordingly. Compute the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the population total and its estimated variance. Prove the Horvitz-Thompson estimator is unbiased. Explain the unbiasedness proof of the variance estimator. Justify the choice of the Hansen-Hurwitz or Horvitz-Thompson estimator for a given unequal probability sample.

Learning Objectives- Chapter 11 Stratified Sampling List the Advantages of stratified random sampling. Apply a stratified design to a sampling problem and compute estimators of population total, mean and their associated variances. Explain why a stratified sample is more precise than a SRS Recognize the differences among methods of Allocation- Proportional, Optimal, Neyman- i.e., what considerations enter sample size allocation and apply them when appropriate. Apply Poststratification to a set of data List the advantages and disadvantages of poststratification over prestratification

Learning Objectives- Chapter 12 Systematic and Cluster Sampling Identify the similarities and differences between the two approaches. List the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Compute estimates of population total and mean and their respective estimated variances. Explain the conditions under which gain in precision occurs Explain the variance estimation problem with single systematic sample and present possible solutions Recognize the use of PPS sampling within each of these approaches. Learning Objectives- Adaptive Cluster Sampling Describe the methodology and explain when it is advantageous (see chapter 24 for refresher) Learning Objectives- Chapter 13 Multistage Sampling Distinguish between primary and secondary units Compute estimates of the population total, primary unit average, secondary unit average and their estimated variances. Explain the relationship to cluster sampling, and why it is useful Estimate population size and its estimated variance using with or without replacement sampling Recognize that each level of sampling introduces additional variance components Learning Objectives- Chapter 7.1 and 8.1 Auxiliary Data, Ratio and Regression Estimators Explain the benefit of using auxiliary data, ratio estimator and regression estimator Compute estimates of the population total and mean and estimated variances using ratio or regression estimator. Recognize why a ratio estimator is biased, and why it might be a better estimator than an unbiased estimator. Compare the precision of SRS, ratio and regression estimators. Know conditions under which a ratio or regression estimator will have high precision. Demonstrate the equality of the ratio estimator variance structure to that of a SRS.