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Cash flow diagram

Sum of cash flows since initiation ($1,000)

$400,000
Discounted
Non-discounted

$300,000

$200,000

Plant startup

$100,000

$0
Net Present Value
(Discounted)
-$100,000
Discounted payback period
-$200,000
0

Years since project initiation

10

12

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Simulation of NPV calculation

I
J
K
L
(W.R. Wilcox, Clarkson U, Oct 2004)
Revised June 2007

All numbers in $1000 (so, for example, $1,500 is $1.5 million)


CTCI = $139,500 (i.e., $139.5 million total capital investment, not discounted)
n
0
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Cland
$2,500

CTDC

Cstartup

$30,000
$40,000

SR

COMd

GE

IT

$120,000
$120,000
$120,000
$120,000
$120,000
$120,000
$120,000
$120,000
$120,000
$120,000

$23,100
$23,100
$23,100
$23,100
$23,100
$23,100
$23,100
$23,100
$23,100
$23,100

$14,000
$22,400
$13,440
$8,064
$8,064
$4,032

$10,770
$10,350
$13,038
$14,651
$14,651
$15,860
$17,070
$17,070
$17,070
$17,070

$60,000
$7,000

-$2,500

CWC

$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
-$60,000 $200,000

CF
-$2,500
-$30,000
-$100,000
$39,130
$46,550
$43,862
$42,249
$42,249
$41,040
$39,830
$39,830
$39,830
$102,330
NPV =

DCF
-$2,500
-$27,273
-$82,645
$29,399
$31,794
$27,235
$23,849
$21,681
$19,145
$16,892
$15,356
$13,960
$32,605
$119,499

Total
DCF
-$2,500
-$29,773
-$112,417
-$83,018
-$51,224
-$23,989
-$141
$21,540
$40,685
$57,577
$72,933
$86,893
$119,499

Total
Disc land
CF
+ WC
-$2,500
-$32,500
-$132,500
-$93,370 $46,957
-$46,820 $42,688
-$2,958 $38,808
$39,291 $35,280
$81,540 $32,072
$122,580 $29,157
$162,410 $26,506
$202,240 $24,096
$242,070 $21,906
$344,400 $19,914

CTCI = Total capital investment, TCI = Cland + CTDC + Cstartup + CWC, asssuming no royalties must be paid for process.
n = year since beginning of construction
Cland = cost of land
(FCIL)
25 CTDC = total depreciable capital = 1.18(CTBM+Csite+Cbuildings+Coffsite facilities)
26 CTBM = Total bare module cost = installed cost of all equipment, etc. = Inside Battery Limits Investment (ISBL)
27 Cstartup
28 CWC =
29 SR =
30 COMd
31 GE =
32
D=
33
IT =
34
r=
35 CF =
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= startup cost
working capital
sales revenues (from sale of product)
= Cost of manufacturing (without depreciation).
General expenses
Depreciation (5-year MACRS used here)
Federal and state income tax = r*(SR - Cstartup - COMd - GE - D) for that year.
Total income tax rate
(30% used here)
Cash flow for that year = SR - Cland - CTDC - Cstartup - CWC - COMd - GE - IT
n

DCF = Discounted cash flow for that year = CF/(1+i)


i = Required rate of return.
here i = 0.1
NPV = Net present value = the sum of DCF for all years.
DCFRR = Discounted tax flow rate of return is the value of i at which NPV = 0.
(Also known as the Internal Rate of Return, IRR)
Use Goal Seek to set cell H37 so that cell L20 is 0.
(Alternately, copy the CF column and paste special values, then use the IRR function)
This gives 28.077%
Discounted payback period when total DCF = - (Disc land + WC)

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About 4.5 years here.

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