LOCAL ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT | PRODUCTION AND WAGES

Manufacturing jobs have slid steadily as work has moved offshore

By SHERYL JEAN
Staff Writer sjean@dallasnews.com

By KYLE ALCOTT
Staff Writer kalcott@dallasnews.com

U.S. manufacturing jobs have fallen to a level not seen since World War II (1941 to be exact). The industry declined dramatically in the last 30 years in Texas and across the U.S., because, among other reasons, companies sought lower-wage workers offshore, and automation reduced the number of employees needed. Manufacturing jobs have seen a small revival in recent years, as the U.S. economy improved, business costs rose in other countries, some work returned to U.S. soil, and demand grew for products made in the U.S.A. One thing is for sure: The manufacturing industry of the future wont look much like the past.

The nations post-World War II slide

Manufacturing jobs saw their greatest boom during World War II, according to records kept since 1939. Jobs peaked in June 1979 at more than 19.5 million. Since then, the nation has lost 39 percent of its manufacturing workforce, or nearly 7.6 million jobs. More than 2 million manufacturing jobs were lost during the latest recession, hitting a low point in January 2010. In December, U.S. manufacturing jobs hit their highest level (11.99 million people) in 3.5 years.
(Numbers are in thousands; seasonally adjusted) 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 June 2009: 11,725 January 2010: 11,458 June 1979: 19,553 December 2007: 13,743 May 2009: 11,868 December: 11,988*

10,000 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
*Figures for November and December of 2012 are preliminary

Texas manufacturing employment

Texas manufacturing jobs peaked in 1981, with more than 1.1 million. Since then, the state has lost one-quarter of its manufacturing workforce. Just in the latest recession, Texas lost 102,000 jobs (10.9 percent) and continued to lose 28,800 more through April 2010. In the last two years, Texas has regained 45,000 manufacturing jobs.
(Numbers are in thousands; not seasonally adjusted) 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800

Dallas-Fort Worth manufacturing jobs

Manufacturing jobs in the area are at a 1976 level. Today, such jobs make up less than 9 percent of all jobs in the region. Since manufacturing employment peaked at 366,900 in fall 1998, the area has lost 111,300 jobs, or 30 percent. Jobs in Dallas-Fort Worth have been slower to bounce back from the recession than those elsewhere.
(Numbers are in thousands; not seasonally adjusted)

November: 850*

400

November: 255.6*
350

300

250 700 600 75 80 85 90 95 00 *Preliminary 05 10 12 200 75 80 85 90 95 00 *Preliminary 05 10 12

Note: The government replaced its outdated industry classification system effective as of 1990 for state-level data.

Note: The government replaced its outdated industry classification system effective as of 2002 for local data.

Production wages
$24.46 Texas average hourly $17.47 production wage is buoyed by the type of manufacturing $18.76 prevalent: aerospace, $20.69 automobiles and parts, $22.34 chemical, high-tech and oil field equipment. The state $15.63 $18.26 ranked No. 16 for its average 1. Colo. $25.15 hourly wage ($19.32) in $20.51 November, which was higher than the national average of $18.85. $18.72 $20.77 $18.92 $19.23 $17.73 $21.41 $18.60 $18.45 $16.99 $18.60 $20.76 $23.03 $18.64 $18.75 $17.61 $16.56 $19.72 $19.57 $16.12 16.23 $18.72 $18.48 $18.88 $18.46 $18.65 $18.58 $16.58 $16.73 50. $17.17 $17.25 Ark. 18.06 $15.18 $17.60 $16.66 Texas $19.32 $20.29 $20.04 $22.66
SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Morning News research

November average hourly wages of production employees Less than $17 $17-$18 $18-19 $19-$20 $20-$21 More than $21

$18.25

$15.57

$19.90

The bottom line

The share of jobs in the manufacturing sector will never return to those of decades ago if for no other reason than productivity gains have made those levels unnecessary. However, since the end of the recession, weve seen growth in the sector, particularly in Texas, and in a variety of industries. Cheryl Abbot, Dallas regional economist, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The long-term downward trend over the last 30 years may have hit a bottom. The U.S. is more competitive on a wage basis because average wages have come down, especially for entry-level workers, and wages in China have been increasing. States like Texas, which have right-to-work laws, are more competitive. Roger Meiners, chairman of the economics department, University of Texas at Arlington Texas and many other parts of the country have increased demand in recent years for certain types of skilled workers, such as welders and machinists. Future manufacturing prowess locally and nationally will be built around skilled, precision work and artisanal work.

Sheryl Jean, staff writer, The Dallas Morning News