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OFFICE SNAPSHOT
BALTIMORE, MD
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
Q4 2012
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Consumer behavior remained conservative in 2012 as economic uncertainties loomed surrounding the fiscal cliff. While concerns of tax increases and spending cuts represented another hurdle in economic expansion, service providers attempted to compensate with value-driven products. The national unemployment rate in November 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), was 7.7%. Marylands preliminary November 2012 unemployment rate, at 6.6% continued to remain below the national rate; relatively unchanged from January 2012 (6.5%), as fiscal cliff challenges laid ahead.
OUTLOOK
Economic uncertainty will postpone major decisions in 2013 although some cautious optimism remains. There is anticipation of growth in the Howard County and Anne Arundel markets due to governmentrelated and cyber security tenants demand for large blocks of class A space. The landscape of the CBD is changing as the office-toresidential conversion trend continues. Overall vacancy will increase due to 196,700 sf of scheduled deliveries. Sales will not reach the heights of pre-downturn activity; however, it will be another year of high transactional volume as the opportunistic purchasers from the crisis years-late 08, 09 and 10- look to cash in on rebounded pricing across asset sub-classes. STATS ON THE GO
Q4 2011 Overall Vacancy Direct Asking Rents (psf/yr) YTD Leasing Activity (sf) 14.5% $24.48 2,352,037 Q4 2012 15.2% $23.06 2,078,457 Y-O-Y 12 MONTH CHANGE FORECAST 0.7pp -5.8% -11.6%
LEASING ACTIVITY
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
msf
1.4
1.9
2.9
2.4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 YTD
LEASING ACTIVITY
Cushman & Wakefield of Maryland, Inc. 500 East Pratt Street, Suite 500 Baltimore, MD 21202 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 847 2785 Paula.Munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
2.1
BALTIMORE CBD
The overall vacancy rate ticked up 1.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year due to PNCs 194,000-sf sublet at 2 Hopkins Plaza coming on the market. Year-to-date overall net absorption was negative 117,490 sf due in large part to tenant downsizing, particularly among financial services firms. Baltimore CBDs class A direct rental rate steadily declined throughout the year dropping 1.8% from Q1to Q4. The overall average direct rental rate for the Baltimore CBD was $20.91 psf, finishing $2.00 psf less than the average for the entire region. Leasing activity was down 25% from year-end 2011, finishing 2012 at 317,958 sf. Some notable lease transactions executed during the year included: Goodell, Devries, Leech & Dann LLPs renewal of 47,372 sf at 1 South Street, University of Marylands Faculty Physicians lease of 25,102 sf at 250 W Pratt Street, and Shapiro, Sher, Guinot & Sandlerss renewal of 24,166 sf at 36 S. Charles Street. 301 N Charles Street, 10 Light Street, and114 E Lexington Street will be undergoing residential conversions.
2010
2011
Q4 12
ALL CLASSES
0.2
0.2
0.1 0.0
0.2
2008
0.2
2009
CLASS A
0.2
0.2
2010
2011
ALL CLASSES
0.4
Q4 12
BALTIMORE NON-CBD
In contrast to the CBD, year-to-date overall net absorption for the non-CBD market finished positive at 442,565 sf with a majority of the positive absorption focused on Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties. Much of the demand was derived from government contractors, particularly those involved in high-tech endeavors such as cyber-security and cloud computing. The Baltimore non-CBDs overall direct vacancy rate remained 2.1 percentage points less than the CBDs. Harford Countys overall vacancy rate jumped almost 12.7 percentage points to 38.9%, from the beginning of the year, due to 324,805 sf in new construction deliveries. Baltimore Countys average direct asking rental rate, at $20.91 psf, was over $3 psf less than the average for the Baltimore non-CBD market. All 2012 new construction deliveries were situated in the nonCBD market with an additional 820,700 sf under construction. Renewals accounted for 28.7% of leasing activity for 2012; the largest being Toyota Motor Credit Corporations renewal of 110,000 sf at 500 Red Brook Boulevard in Owings Mills. 2.1 msf traded hands during the year with a majority of sales occurring in the Baltimore County market.
msf
2010
2011
Q4 12
ALL CLASSES
0.5 0.0
0.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Cushman & Wakefield of Maryland, Inc. 500 East Pratt Street, Suite 500 Baltimore, MD 21202 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 847 2785 Paula.Munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
2.1
BALTIMORE, MD
SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL VACANCY RATE 18.1% 18.8% 9.9% DIRECT VACANCY RATE 16.2% 18.7% 9.9% YTD LEASING ACTIVITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION YTD CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS 0 0 0 YTD DIRECT NET ABSORPTION YTD OVERALL OVERALL WTD. AVG NET ABSORPTION ALL CLASSES GROSS RENTAL RATE* (117,490) (241,424) 185,466 $ 20.95 $ 19.77 $ 28.50 DIRECT WTD. AVG CLASS A GROSS RENTAL RATE* $ 23.01 $ 25.25 $ 33.65
0 538,000 0
Baltimore City
Howard County North Howard County South Downtown Columbia
22,203,339
1,811,712 7,755,538 2,078,844
16.6%
8.7% 15.0% 15.6%
15.4%
7.0% 14.3% 15.5%
363,690
105,371 556,469 218,729
538,000
0 142,700 0
0
68,779 105,000 0
(31,033)
72,902 30,210 30,076
(173,448)
46,776 6,750 27,764
$ 21.87
$ 22.99 $ 24.65 $ 22.83
$ 24.85
$ 23.94 $ 26.90 $ 24.10
Howard County
Fort Meade District BWI District Anne Arundel County East Anne Arundel County South/Annapolis
11,646,094
4,550,926 3,704,373 755,512 2,308,268
14.1%
9.5% 17.5% 8.5% 10.7%
13.3%
9.2% 17.1% 8.5% 9.0%
880,569
202,525 41,554 5,100 69,006
142,700
140,000 0 0 0
173,779
0 87,830 0 0
133,188
205,871 54,250 3,464 (76,613)
81,290
202,780 46,395 3,464 (110,654)
$ 24.06
$ 29.60 $ 22.79 $ 19.45 $ 25.40
$ 25.93
$ 31.74 $ 23.90 $ 21.00 $ 28.85
11,319,079
868,351 9,680,069 4,422,650 3,055,760
12.3%
12.9% 13.2% 17.3% 12.4%
11.7%
12.7% 13.0% 17.3% 12.1%
318,185
763 339,387 69,853 69,263
140,000
0 0 0 0
87,830
0 131,360 0 0
186,972
27,456 144,924 12,910 33,840
141,985
27,456 170,197 12,910 27,451
$ 25.89
$ 20.28 $ 21.54 $ 19.96 $ 20.29
$ 28.73
$ 22.94 $ 23.90 $ 20.27 $ 23.50
Baltimore County
Harford
18,026,830
1,471,322
14.0%
32.3%
13.9%
29.5%
479,266
36,747
0
0
131,360
324,805
219,130
56,883
238,014
37,234
$ 20.91
$ 31.50
$ 22.77
$ 31.97
36.7% 14.1%
36,747 1,760,499
0 820,700 820,700
14.5% 2,078,457
Cushman & Wakefield of Maryland, Inc. 500 East Pratt Street, Suite 500 Baltimore, MD 21202 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 847 2785 Paula.Munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
Howard County South, BWI District, Baltimore County East and Greenfield Partners, LLP Baltimore County North
$103,372,350**/ $114**
906,775**
One & Two Corporate Center 9841 and 9861 Broken Land Pky (Part of 4 Bldg Portfolio Sale)
336,601
198,105**
BUILDING SQUARE FEET 157,712 131,360 105,000 95,200 BUILDING SQUARE FEET 538,000 140,000 86,000
Business Suites/WMS Partners EA Engineering, Science & Technology, Inc. NewDay USA N/A MAJOR TENANT
SUBMARKET
6100 Wabash Avenue 420 National Business Parkway 7205 Riverwood Drive
* RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS **$PRICE, $PSF OR SF NOTED REFLECT VALUES OF PROPERTIES IN OFFICE INVENTORY
Cushman & Wakefield of Maryland, Inc. 500 East Pratt Street, Suite 500 Baltimore, MD 21202 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 847 2785 Paula.Munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.