CE 190 Seminar and Research Methods in Civil Engineering (Proposal) Research Proposal

October 17, 2012 Structural Engineering Group

Development of Fragility Curves Due to Severe Winds for Billboards in Metro Manila
BRENT BENEDICT G. BAUTISTA Undergraduate Student, B.S. Civil Engineering Institute of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101 Email: bbenedictbautista@gmail.com
Advisers: Engr. William Mata Institute of Civil Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman Dr. Jaime Y. Hernandez Jr. Institute of Civil Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman
Abstract: This research project aims to develop the fragility curves of Billboards due to severe winds in Metro Manila. This fragility curves would be developed using the Analytical Method particularly the Monte Carlo Simulation. Data used are acquired from measurements made by the different Government Agencies. The steps proposed by Rachaudhuri (2008) were followed in the Monte Carlo Simulation: Static Model Generation, Input Distribution Generation, Random Variable Generation and Analysis and Decision Making. Models made from the input generated by the frequency distributions will be subjected to different magnitudes of wind loads. The fragility curve will then be obtained after analysis of the models.

1.

INTRODUCTION

1.3 Objectives The general objective of this research is to develop the fragility curve of billboards due to severe wind loads in the Metro Manila area. To accomplish this, the data obtained from subjecting different models of typical billboards against severe wind loadings will be used. 1.4 Significance of the Study The Philippines experience an annual average of 20 tropical cyclones passing the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), 9 of which are land falling (Aquino, 2012). The damages from these typhoons result in millions of money spent on rehabilitation and repairs. Often, the exact damage caused by a typhoon is hard to determine. This oftentimes results in overspending by the government. Given the magnitude of the risk, fragility curves can predict the part of the population that will be damaged. The development of the fragility curves for Billboards will help in the assessment of the damages done by the typhoon thereby helping in effective planning of budgets for reconstruction and repair. 1.5 Scope and Limitations During a tropical cyclone, structures may be damaged by the impacts of wind-borne debris. Only wind pressure is considered in this study. It is

1.1 Background of the Study The saying the calm after the storm is not entirely true as the government and its people struggle to return to its normal living. The government allocates large budget for the repair and reconstruction of the damaged structures. Oftentimes the budget is just a rough estimate of the real damages that must be repaired. This results in either underfunding or overspending by the government. The Philippines being considered as one of the most disaster-prone country in the 20th century (Aquino, 2012) is in need of a more accurate damage assessment. The fragility curve is a curve that describes how the reliability of a population of structures changes over the range of loading conditions to which that population of structure might be exposed. (Schultz et al, 2010). The fragility curve can predict the number of structure in a population that will incur a damage given the magnitude of the risk (i.e. Wind Speed). 1.2 Statement of the Problem This research will focus on the development of fragility curves due to severe winds for billboards in Metro Manila. The fragility curves will be developed using analytical methods particularly the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS).

CE 190 Seminar and Research Methods in Civil Engineering (Proposal) Research Proposal

October 17, 2012 Structural Engineering Group

common practice that if a tropical cyclone is expected to enter the area, the ads will be removed from the main structure. This practice decreases the area that the wind will hit thus minimizing wind pressure effect. This is the case considered in the study. Adjacent structures may either create the funnel effect which increases the wind speed or create the shielding effect which decreases the wind speed. (Veron, 2012). The wind tunnel effect is not considered in this study as the Billboard is considered to be freestanding. 1.6 Conceptual Framework The development of fragility curves can be done using one of these four methods: (1) Judgemental, (2) Empirical, (3) Analytical, and (4) Hybrid (Schultz, 2010). The Judgemental approach employs the experts opinion in determining the damage state of the structure. The Empirical Approach is based on observed data documenting the performance of structures under a variety of loads. The Analytical approach is the most commonly used method in the literatures. It employs structural models that characterize the performance limit of structures under a variety of loads. The hybrid method combines one of the previously discussed methods in determining the fragility curves (Ciampoli, Petrini, Augusti, 2011). The analytical method is further subdivided into several methods: (1) the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), (2) the First Order Second Moment, (3) the Second Order Reliability Method, and (4) the Monte Carlo Simulation. The Monte Carlo Simulation is a numerical method of developing the fragility curve. It employs performing cyclically the analysis of the model using varying possible scenarios. The Monte Carlo Simulation is used in this research.

2.

METHODOLOGY

To accomplish the objectives of the study, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) will be employed. The general steps of performing the MCS listed by Raychaudhuri (2008) will be followed: 1. 2. 3. 4. Static Model Generation Input Distribution Generation Random Variable Generation Analysis and Decision Making

Figure 2. Monte Carlo Simulation Figure 3 shows the steps that will be undertaken to accomplish the objective of the study.

Figure 3. Flowchart of Study 2.1 Input Distribution Generation Navidi (2010) listed several types of frequency distribution that can be used: (1) Normal, (2) Lognormal, (3) Poisson, (4) Binomial, (5) Geometric, (6) Multinomial, and (7) Exponential. 2.1.1 Wind Distribution Seguro and Lambert (1999) states that the Weibull distribution is the most commonly used wind speed frequency distribution. An example of the Weibull distribution is shown in figure 4.

Figure 1. Conceptual Framework

CE 190 Seminar and Research Methods in Civil Engineering (Proposal) Research Proposal

October 17, 2012 Structural Engineering Group

on the frequency distribution but will always assume a number that is found in the sample. To accomplish this, the study will employ the functions available in Microsoft excel. 2.3 Structural Analysis The analysis of the structural model will be done in STAAD. A scripting language will be used to perform the analysis for a number of runs. 2.3.1 Number of Runs Figure 4. The Weibull Distribution The Weibull parameters are calculated using linear regression. 2.1.2 Distribution Fitting When no distribution for the sample is given, distribution fitting will be employed. Cousineau (2007) defined distribution fitting as the procedure of selecting a statistical distribution that best fits to a data set generated by some random process. Raychaudhuri (2008) and Navidi (2010) listed several methods of distribution fitting: (1) Method of Maximum Likelihood, (2) Method of Moments, (3) Nonlinear Optimization, and (4) Probability Plots. The Method of Maximum Likelihood (MLE) and the Probability Plots will be used in this study. The method of maximum likelihood is a popular statistical method used to make inferences about parameters of the underlying probability distribution from a given data set (Raychaudhuri, 2008). The probability plot (Chambers, 1983) is a method for determining whether a data set follows a given distribution (i.e. Normal Distribution). 2.2 Random Variable Generation From the determined distributions of the variables, a random variable will be generated. Navidi (2010) introduces the Inverse Transformation Method. In this method, we use the inverse of the probability density function (PDF) (for continuous distributions) or probability mass function (PMF) (for discrete distributions), and convert a random number between 0 and 1 to a random value for the input distribution. For variables wherein data are needed to be within the sample, Raychaudhuri (2008) proposes the Bootstrapped Monte Carlo Simulation. This method employs normal generation of random numbers based To achieve a specified error and confidence, the number of MCS runs must be at least:

Where Z is the confidence multiplier of the two tailed normal distribution, E is the error of the mean of the distribution p is the standard deviation. (Shin and Driels, 2004) 2.3.2 Wind Application Wind pressure applied will be calculated as provided by the National Structural Code of the Philippines (NSCP 2010).

3.

Schedule

Table 1. Schedule of Work for Research

CE 190 Seminar and Research Methods in Civil Engineering (Proposal) Research Proposal

October 17, 2012 Structural Engineering Group

4.

Budget

Activity Computer Microsoft Office Bentley STAAD.Pro Total

Cost (PhP) 20000 6210 2100 28310

http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/ MonteCarloSimulation.html. Last accessed 16th August 2012.

Table 2. Proposed Budget for Research 5. REFERENCES 1. Aquino, R. (2012). Philippine Wind Information for Engineering Research and Mitigation. 2. Chambers J, Cleveland W, Kleiner B, & Tukey P. (1983).Graphical Methods for Data Analysis, Wadsworth. 3. Ciampoli M, Petrini F & Augusti G. (2011). Performance-Based Wind Engineering: Towards a general procedure. Structural Safety. vol. 33, 367-378. 4. Cousineau D, Brown S, Heathcote A. (2004). Fitting Distribuitions using Maximum Likelihood: Methods and Packages. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments & Computers. vol. 36, 742-56. 5. Navidi W. (2010). Principles of Statistics for Scientists and Engineers. McGraw Hill Inc, Boston. 6. Raychaudchuri S. (2008). Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation. Colorado 80021, United States of America. 7. Schultz et al. (2010). Beyond the Factor of Safety: Development of Fragility Curves to Characterize System Reliability 8. Shin M, Driels Y. (2004). Determining the Number of Iterations for Monte Carlo Simulations of Weapon Effectiveness. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey California. 9. Veron, M. (2012). Development of Computational Fragility Curves for Residential Buildings Considering Severe Wind Loading. University of the Philippines Diliman, Philippines 10. Wittwer, J. (June 1, 2004). A Practical Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation. Available from: