CHAPTER III

MEASURING PRICE FLUCTUATION USING MOVING

AVERAGE METHOD
3.1 INTRODUCTION
MOVING AVERAGE
This chapter deals with the analysis of price fluctuation of selected commodities using
Moving Average Analysis of 4 selected commodities.
The following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the
analysis of moving average analysis.

Column

Column Name

Description

Date

Trading Date

Close price

Moving average

Close Price in Rupees

Moving average calculated for every month
available for trading in Rupees.

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.1

GOLD DECEMBER 2011

Date
Close Price(Rs) Moving avg
1-Dec-11
28888
2-Dec-11
28891
3-Dec-11
28943
28907.333
5-Dec-11
28943
28925.667
6-Dec-11
29772
29219.333
7-Dec-11
30090
29601.667
8-Dec-11
30069
29977
9-Dec-11
29955
30038
10-Dec-11
29955
29993
12-Dec-11
29695
29868.333
13-Dec-11
29764
29804.667
14-Dec-11
29055
29504.667
15-Dec-11
28493
29104
16-Dec-11
28387
28645
17-Dec-11
28508
28462.667
19-Dec-11
28498
28464.333
20-Dec-11
28753
28586.333
21-Dec-11
28904
28718.333
22-Dec-11
28646
28767.667
23-Dec-11
28662
28737.333
24-Dec-11
28716
28674.667
26-Dec-11
28716
28698
27-Dec-11
28716
28716
28-Dec-11
28286
28572.667
29-Dec-11
27602
28201.333

CHART 3.1

DECEMBER 2011
30500
30000
29500
29000
28500
28000
27500
27000
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.2
GOLD JANUARY 2012
Date
Close(Rs)
Moving avg
2-Jan-12
27382
3-Jan-12
27656
4-Jan-12
27852
27630
5-Jan-12
27821
27776.333
6-Jan-12
27755
27809.333
7-Jan-12
27762
27779.333
9-Jan-12
27578
27698.333
10-Jan-12
27537
27625.667
11-Jan-12
27657
27590.667
12-Jan-12
27665
27619.667
13-Jan-12
27427
27583
14-Jan-12
27507
27533
16-Jan-12
27484
27472.667
17-Jan-12
27588
27526.333
18-Jan-12
27475
27515.667
19-Jan-12
27347
27470
20-Jan-12
27448
27423.333
21-Jan-12
27490
27428.333
23-Jan-12
27510
27482.667
24-Jan-12
27383
27461
25-Jan-12
27589
27494
27-Jan-12
27957
27643
28-Jan-12
27990
27845.333
30-Jan-12
28059
28002
31-Jan-12
28078
28042.333

CHART 3.2

JANUARY 2012
28200
28000
27800
27600
27400
27200
27000
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.3
GOLD FEBRUARY 2012
Date
Close price
Moving avg
1-Feb-12
28083
2-Feb-12
28155
3-Feb-12
27711
27983
4-Feb-12
27948
27938
6-Feb-12
28950
28203
7-Feb-12
28950
28616
8-Feb-12
29306
29068.67
9-Feb-12
29326
29194
10-Feb-12
29279
29303.67
11-Feb-12
29272
29292.33
13-Feb-12
29155
29235.33
14-Feb-12
29062
29163
15-Feb-12
29246
29154.33
16-Feb-12
29161
29156.33
17-Feb-12
29141
29182.67
18-Feb-12
29141
29147.67
20-Feb-12
29156
29146
21-Feb-12
29425
29240.67
22-Feb-12
29600
29393.67
23-Feb-12
29918
29647.67
24-Feb-12
29780
29766
25-Feb-12
29730
29809.33
27-Feb-12
29739
29749.67
28-Feb-12
29957
29808.67
29-Feb-12
29091
29595.67

CHART 3.3

FEBRUARY 2012
30000
29500
29000
28500
28000
27500
27000
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of gold.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.30,090 and the minimum price is
Rs.27,602. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.28,078 and the minimum price is
Rd.27,347. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.29,957 and the minimum price is
27,711. It indicates that in the month of January there was high decline of gold because of the
recession and in the month of February there was a high fluctuation throughout the month.

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.4
SILVER DECEMBER 2011
Date Close(Rs)
Moving
avg
1-Dec-11
54953
2-Dec-11
55076
3-Dec-11
55270 55099.667
5-Dec-11
55501 55282.333
6-Dec-11
60101 56957.333
7-Dec-11
60525
58709
8-Dec-11
59656
60094
9-Dec-11
59656 59945.667
10-Dec-11
59656
59656
12-Dec-11
59851
59721
13-Dec-11
59800
59769
14-Dec-11
58777
59476
15-Dec-11
56810 58462.333
16-Dec-11
56922
57503
17-Dec-11
56922 56884.667
19-Dec-11
56423 56755.667
20-Dec-11
56679 56674.667
21-Dec-11
56679 56593.667
22-Dec-11
56239 56532.333
23-Dec-11
56500 56472.667
24-Dec-11
57254 56664.333
26-Dec-11
56449 56734.333
27-Dec-11
56242 56648.333
28-Dec-11
54797 55829.333
29-Dec-11
52795 54611.333

CHART 3.4

DECEMBER 2011
61000
60000
59000
58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
53000
52000
51000
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.5

Date
2-Jan-12
3-Jan-12
4-Jan-12
5-Jan-12
6-Jan-12
7-Jan-12
9-Jan-12
10-Jan-12
11-Jan-12
12-Jan-12
13-Jan-12
14-Jan-12
16-Jan-12
17-Jan-12
18-Jan-12
19-Jan-12
20-Jan-12
21-Jan-12
23-Jan-12
24-Jan-12
25-Jan-12
27-Jan-12
28-Jan-12
30-Jan-12
31-Jan-12

SILVER JANUARY 2012

Close
Moving avg
51330
53109
52761
52400
52740
52870
51868
52456.333
51845
52151
51749
51820.667
52566
52053.333
52607
52307.333
52770
52647.667
52001
52459.333
52124
52298.333
52315
52146.667
53207
52548.667
53428
52983.333
53387
53340.667
54825
53880
55548
54586.667
55565
55312.667
55365
55492.667
56411
55780.333
57165
56313.667
57229
56935
56992
57128.667
56422
56881

CHART 3.5
JANUARY 2012
58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
53000
52000
51000
50000
49000
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.6

SILVER FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close
Moving
price
avg
1-Feb-12
56834
2-Feb-12
57023
3-Feb-12
56161
56672.67
4-Feb-12
56157
56447
6-Feb-12
56426
56248
7-Feb-12
57265
56616
8-Feb-12
56821
56837.33
9-Feb-12
57177
57087.67
10-Feb-12
56915
56971
11-Feb-12
56875
56989
13-Feb-12
56664
56818
14-Feb-12
56416
56651.67
15-Feb-12
56303
56461
16-Feb-12
56216
56311.67
17-Feb-12
55926
56148.33
18-Feb-12
56108
56083.33
20-Feb-12
56320
56118
21-Feb-12
57157
56528.33
22-Feb-12
57257
56911.33
23-Feb-12
58677
57697
24-Feb-12
58404
58112.67
25-Feb-12
58435
58505.33
27-Feb-12
58710
58516.33
28-Feb-12
60883
59342.67
29-Feb-12
57783
59125.33

CHART 3.6

FEBRUARY 2012
60000
59000
58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of silver.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.60525 and the minimum price is Rs.52795.
In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.57229 and the minimum price is Rd.51330. In the
February month, the maximum price is Rs60883 and the minimum price is 56108. The table and
chart indicates that in the month of December there was a decline in silver price and in the month of
January and February there was a slow and steady increase in silver price.

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO

MARCH 2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.7
ALUMINIUM DECEMBER 2011
Date
Close(Rs)
Moving avg
1-Dec-11
110.85
2-Dec-11
112.15
3-Dec-11
111.6 111.5333333
5-Dec-11
110.9
111.55
6-Dec-11
111.2 111.2333333
7-Dec-11
110.8 110.9666667
8-Dec-11
109.85 110.6166667
9-Dec-11
110.5 110.3833333
10-Dec-11
110.5 110.2833333
12-Dec-11
110.05
110.35
13-Dec-11
110.3 110.2833333
14-Dec-11
109.45 109.9333333
15-Dec-11
108.7 109.4833333
16-Dec-11
108.2 108.7833333
17-Dec-11
108.3
108.4
19-Dec-11
107.35
107.95
20-Dec-11
108.15 107.9333333
21-Dec-11
108 107.8333333
22-Dec-11
108.1 108.0833333
23-Dec-11
108.85 108.3166667
24-Dec-11
108.85
108.6
26-Dec-11
108.85
108.85
27-Dec-11
108.5 108.7333333
28-Dec-11
109.05
108.8
29-Dec-11
108.15 108.5666667

CHART 3.7
DECEMBER 2011
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.8
ALUMINIUM JANUARY 2012
Date
Close
Moving
avg
2-Jan-12
110.05
3-Jan-12
110.6
4-Jan-12
111.85 110.83333
5-Jan-12
110.6 111.01667
6-Jan-12
110.45 110.96667
7-Jan-12
110.45
110.5
9-Jan-12
112.4
111.1
10-Jan-12
113.1 111.98333
11-Jan-12
113.55 113.01667
12-Jan-12
114.05 113.56667
13-Jan-12
112.6
113.4
14-Jan-12
112.9 113.18333
16-Jan-12
112.85 112.78333
17-Jan-12
114.2 113.31667
18-Jan-12
113.25 113.43333
19-Jan-12
113.65
113.7
20-Jan-12
113.2 113.36667
21-Jan-12
113.2
113.35
23-Jan-12
113.25 113.21667
24-Jan-12
113.85 113.43333
25-Jan-12
113.5 113.53333
27-Jan-12
113.75
113.7
28-Jan-12
113.5 113.58333
30-Jan-12
113.2 113.48333
31-Jan-12
113.4 113.36667

CHART 3.8

JANUARY 2012
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.9

ALUMINIUM FEBRUARY 2012

Date
Close price Moving
avg
1-Feb-12
112.65
2-Feb-12
110.2
3-Feb-12
110.8 111.2167
4-Feb-12
110.8
110.6
6-Feb-12
110.9 110.8333
7-Feb-12
111.85 111.1833
8-Feb-12
112.25 111.6667
9-Feb-12
113.7
112.6
10-Feb-12
112.65 112.8667
11-Feb-12
112.85 113.0667
13-Feb-12
110.95
112.15
14-Feb-12
110.65 111.4833
15-Feb-12
110.3 110.6333
16-Feb-12
108.95 109.9667
17-Feb-12
108.25 109.1667
18-Feb-12
108.2 108.4667
20-Feb-12
108.6
108.35
21-Feb-12
111 109.2667
22-Feb-12
112.55 110.7167
23-Feb-12
112.2 111.9167
24-Feb-12
111.65 112.1333
25-Feb-12
111.55
111.8
27-Feb-12
111.24
111.48
28-Feb-12
112.1
111.63
29-Feb-12
112.65 111.9967

CHART 3.9

FEBRUARY 2012
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of aluminium.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is
Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is
Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is
Rs.108.2. The table and chart indicates that in the month of December there was a full decline and in
the month of January a slow and steady increase in aluminium. But in the month of February the
aluminium price was highly fluctuated.

MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.10

COPPER DECEMBER 2011

Date
Close(Rs)
Moving
avg
1-Dec-11
412.1
2-Dec-11
414.4
3-Dec-11
415.2
0
5-Dec-11
419.45
416.35
6-Dec-11
416.15 416.93333
7-Dec-11
416
417.2
8-Dec-11
413.45
415.2
9-Dec-11
418.9 416.11667
10-Dec-11
420.05 417.46667
12-Dec-11
414.25 417.73333
13-Dec-11
415.6 416.63333
14-Dec-11
404.5
411.45
15-Dec-11
397.85 405.98333
16-Dec-11
397.75 400.03333
17-Dec-11
400.5
398.7
19-Dec-11
397.55
398.6
20-Dec-11
403.75
400.6
21-Dec-11
405.35 402.21667
22-Dec-11
408.05 405.71667
23-Dec-11
413.6
409
24-Dec-11
414.35
412
26-Dec-11
414.25 414.06667
27-Dec-11
410.9 413.16667
28-Dec-11
407.5 410.88333
29-Dec-11
407.5 408.63333

CHART 3.10

DECEMBER 2011
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
385
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.11
COPPER JANUARY 2012
Date
close
Moving avg
2-Jan-12
415.5
3-Jan-12
417.65
4-Jan-12
407.5
413.55
5-Jan-12
406.3 410.4833333
6-Jan-12
406.3
406.7
7-Jan-12
405.8 406.1333333
9-Jan-12
402.95 405.0166667
10-Jan-12
407.75
405.5
11-Jan-12
411.15 407.2833333
12-Jan-12
420.3 413.0666667
13-Jan-12
419.5 416.9833333
14-Jan-12
419.65 419.8166667
16-Jan-12
422.05
420.4
17-Jan-12
423.4
421.7
18-Jan-12
422.8
422.75
19-Jan-12
427.55 424.5833333
20-Jan-12
421.15 423.8333333
21-Jan-12
421.85 423.5166667
23-Jan-12
424.9 422.6333333
24-Jan-12
426.1 424.2833333
25-Jan-12
427
426
27-Jan-12
429.6 427.5666667
28-Jan-12
429.7 428.7666667
30-Jan-12
425.85 428.3833333
31-Jan-12
422.35 425.9666667

CHART 3.11

JANUARY 2012
435
430
425
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.12

COPPER FEBRUARY 2012

Date
Close price
1-Feb-12
2-Feb-12
3-Feb-12
4-Feb-12
6-Feb-12
7-Feb-12
8-Feb-12
9-Feb-12
10-Feb-12
11-Feb-12
13-Feb-12
14-Feb-12
15-Feb-12
16-Feb-12
17-Feb-12
18-Feb-12
20-Feb-12
21-Feb-12
22-Feb-12
23-Feb-12
24-Feb-12
25-Feb-12
27-Feb-12
28-Feb-12
29-Feb-12

423.45
416.8
424.15
424.1
423.8
426.1
429.8
439.15
429.9
430.15
424.85
423.65
421.7
421.3
412.25
413.15
414.6
421.9
422.9
418.9
423.1
422.6
426.65
428.65
425.55

CHART 3.12

Moving
avg

FEBRUARY 2012
435
430

421.4667
421.6833
424.0167
424.6667
426.5667
431.6833
432.95
433.0667
428.3
426.2167
423.4
422.2167
418.4167
415.5667
413.3333
416.55
419.8
421.2333
421.6333
421.5333
424.1167
425.9667
426.95

425
420
415
410
405
400
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of copper.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is
Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is
Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is
Rs.108.2. The table and charts indicates that in the month of December and February the price of
copper was highly fluctuated and in the month of January there was a slow and steady fluctuation.