STA 6167, Section 1648, Fall 2007

Project #5
Due Thursday 4/15/2008

RAMIN SHAMSHIRI
UFID#: 9021-3353

Part 1 Performance of Naval Destroyers circa 1900

A Naval engineer recorded RPM readings and Horsepower for necessary for 25 ship runs.
Further, he believes that when the hull is foul, more Horsepower will be needed to obtain a
given RPM level. Based on theoretical reasons, he feels the relationship is of the form:

HP = Foul + RPM +

Where HP = Collective Horsepower (100s), Foul = 1 if the hull was Foul, 0 otherwise, and RPM
is the total Revolutions per Minute (100s). The engineer believes is 3 based on theoretical
reasons, and that is positive.
Fit the Regression Model (Starting Values for all parameters can be 1)
Answer:
From SAS output we have:

Iter

b0

b1

b2

Sum of
Squares

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

1.0000
1.1574
1.4619
2.3463
3.6470
3.4851
3.4688
3.4713
3.4713

1.0000
0.5050
0.1446
0.0895
0.1680
0.2431
0.2469
0.2468
0.2468

1.0000
1.5571
2.4205
3.8374
3.2149
3.0970
3.1191
3.1187
3.1187

6302.4
5917.0
5636.0
471.9
364.5
76.2215
58.8238
58.8140
58.8140

Regression Model: 3.4713Foul+ 0.2468RPM(3.12)

 Test the hypothesis H0: = 3 versus HA: 3. Do you reject his theory?
Answer:
From SAS output we have:

Parameter
b0
b1
b2

Estimate

Approx
Std Error

3.4713
0.2468
3.1187

0.6727
0.0397
0.0936

Approximate 95% Confidence

Limits
2.0761
0.1645
2.9246

4.8665
0.3290
3.3129

2 2 3.1187 3.0
=
= 1.268

0.0936
t(0.05,24)= 1.7111
Since 1.268 is less than 1.7111 (Tobs< T(0.05,24)) the conclusion is that we do not reject the null
hypothesis.
=

The value of 2 is between Confidence Intervals ( 2.9246 and 3.3129) which means that we
should not reject the H0.
Test the hypothesis H0: = 0 versus HA: >0. Is the result consistent with his theory?
Answer:

Source

DF

Sum of
Squares

Mean
Square

Model
Error
Uncorrected Total

3
22
25

9130.4
58.8140
9189.2

3043.5
2.6734

F Value

Approx
Pr > F

1138.44

<.0001

0 0 3.4713 0
=
= 5.16

0.6727

t(0.025,24)= 2.064
P value: Tdist (5.16, 22, 1) =1.7 e10 (-5)
Since tobs t(0.05,22) , we REJECT the null hypothesis and conclude that the result is consistent
with his theory.

 Give the predicted values for (Foul, 1), (Foul, 3), (Not Foul, 1), (Not Foul, 3).
Answer:
Using the below model, we have:
3.4713Foul+ 0.2468RPM(3.12)
(Foul, 1) = (1,1)
3.4713Foul + 0.2468RPM(3.12)
= 3.4713(1) + 0.2468(1)(3.12)
= 3.7181
(Foul,3) = (1,3)
3.4713Foul+ 0.2468RPM(3.12)
= 3.4713(1)+ 0.2468(3)(3.12)
= 11.07
(Not Foul,1)= (0,1)

3.4713Foul+ 0.2468RPM(3.12)
= 3.4713(0)+ 0.2468(1)(3.12)
=0.2468
(Not Foul, 3)= (0,3)
3.4713Foul+ 0.2468RPM(3.12)
= 3.4713(0)+ 0.2468(3)(3.12)
= 7.60

Part 2 Bird Species in Solomon Islands

A study looked at the relationship between:
S = # of Species living near sea-level on the individual islands of Solomon archipelago
A = Area in miles2
D = Distance from center of archipelago in miles (many have 0 for value)
The authors fit the model:
2
() = 0 + 1 log
()
3 4
Fit the regression model.
As a starting set of values, set all other s = 1.This is based on fitting a simple
linear regression between S and log(A) for the islands with D=0, to get starting values for and
. (Why?).
Answer:
Using the attached SAS code in page 7, we have the following output:

Parameter

Estimate

Approx
Std Error

34.8599
5.3414
0.6699
11.3017
0.2872

0.5668
0.1213
0.0758
3.2656
0.0336

b0
b1
b2
b3
b4

Approximate 95% Confidence

Limits
33.7197
5.0973
0.5173
4.7321
0.2197

Regression Equation:

36.0002
5.5854
0.8224
17.8712
0.3547

2
() = 0 + 1 log
()
3 4
0.6699
() = 34.8599 + 5.3414log
()
11.30170.2872

Give the fitted values for the following combination of values of A and D:
Answer:
I have used Excel to ease the calculations as follow:
Using the below equation,
0.6699
() = 34.8599 + 5.3414log
()
11.30170.2872
Area\Distance
0
25
75
225
0.5
33.25198
13.08291
4.744053
0.570818
2
36.46782
19.4917
9.862531
2.378931
40.2013
27.09416
17.64085
7.202831
10
1000
50.8841
45.80614
40.85741
32.18261

b0

b1

b2

b3

b4

34.8599
5.3414
0.6699
11.3017
0.2872
=(A2+B2*LOG(F2))*EXP((-(G2^C2))/(D2*F2^E2))= 33.25198
=(A2+B2*LOG(F2))*EXP((-(G3^C2))/(D2*F2^E2))= 13.08291
=(A2+B2*LOG(F2))*EXP((-(G4^C2))/(D2*F2^E2))= 4.744
=(A2+B2*LOG(F2))*EXP((-(G5^C2))/(D2*F2^E2))= 0.5708
=(A2+B2*LOG(F6))*EXP((-(G2^C2))/(D2*F6^E2))=36.4678
=(A2+B2*LOG(F6))*EXP((-(G3^C2))/(D2*F6^E2))=19.49
=(A2+B2*LOG(F6))*EXP((-(G4^C2))/(D2*F6^E2))=9.86
=(A2+B2*LOG(F6))*EXP((-(G5^C2))/(D2*F6^E2))=2.37
=(A2+B2*LOG(F10))*EXP((-(G2^C2))/(D2*F10^E2))=40.20
=(A2+B2*LOG(F10))*EXP((-(G3^C2))/(D2*F10^E2))=27.09
=(A2+B2*LOG(F10))*EXP((-(G4^C2))/(D2*F10^E2))=17.64
=(A2+B2*LOG(F10))*EXP((-(G5^C2))/(D2*F10^E2))=7.20
=(A2+B2*LOG(F14))*EXP((-(G2^C2))/(D2*F14^E2))=50.88
=(A2+B2*LOG(F14))*EXP((-(G3^C2))/(D2*F14^E2))=45.80
=(A2+B2*LOG(F14))*EXP((-(G4^C2))/(D2*F14^E2))=40.85
=(A2+B2*LOG(F14))*EXP((-(G5^C2))/(D2*F14^E2))=32.18

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
2
2
2
2
10
10
10
10
1000
1000
1000
1000

0
25
75
225
0
25
75
225
0
25
75
225
0
25
75
225

SAS CODE for part II

options ps=54 ls=76;
data sol1;
infile "C:\data\solomon.dat";
input island $ 1-20 species 21-23 area 25-31 dist 33-39;
logarea=log(area);
dist=dist+0.001;
run;
proc print data=solomanisland;
run;
proc nlin;
parms b0=35 b1=5 b2=1 b3=1 b4=1;
model species=(b0+(b1*logarea))*exp((-dist**b2)/(b3*(area**b4)));
run;
quit;

Output:
Iterative Phase
Iter

b0

b1

b2

b3

b4

Sum of
Squares

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

35.0000
34.5772
34.7438
34.8343
34.8519
34.8600
34.8604
34.8600
34.8599
34.8599

5.0000
5.2573
5.3678
5.3346
5.3356
5.3403
5.3414
5.3414
5.3414
5.3414

1.0000
0.6646
0.6015
0.6377
0.6722
0.6729
0.6701
0.6699
0.6699
0.6699

1.0000
2.2373
4.7674
8.0834
10.6464
11.3149
11.2996
11.3016
11.3016
11.3017

1.0000
0.4720
0.2969
0.2827
0.2917
0.2893
0.2874
0.2872
0.2872
0.2872

3494.0
2616.7
1363.8
636.3
511.8
504.1
504.0
504.0
504.0
504.0

Estimation Summary
Method
Iterations
Subiterations
Average Subiterations
R
PPC(b4)
RPC(b4)
Object
Objective
Observations Read
Observations Used
Observations Missing

Gauss-Newton
9
1
0.111111
1.159E-6
6.479E-7
6.086E-6
1.47E-10
504.0177
52
52
0

Source

DF

Sum of
Squares

Mean
Square

Model
Error
Uncorrected Total

5
47
52

106315
504.0
106819

21263.0
10.7238

F Value

Approx
Pr > F

1982.79

<.0001

The NLIN Procedure

Parameter
b0
b1
b2
b3
b4

b0
b0
b1
b2
b3
b4

1.0000000
-0.2924967
-0.1975197
-0.2561778
-0.0772731

Estimate

Approx
Std Error

34.8599
5.3414
0.6699
11.3017
0.2872

0.5668
0.1213
0.0758
3.2656
0.0336

Approximate 95% Confidence

Limits
33.7197
5.0973
0.5173
4.7321
0.2197

Approximate Correlation Matrix

b1
b2
-0.2924967
1.0000000
-0.1318292
-0.0925575
-0.2256239

-0.1975197
-0.1318292
1.0000000
0.9061838
0.6649333

36.0002
5.5854
0.8224
17.8712
0.3547

b3

b4

-0.2561778
-0.0925575
0.9061838
1.0000000
0.3372869

-0.0772731
-0.2256239
0.6649333
0.3372869
1.0000000