Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Virginia, with 125 cell phone interviews, conducted

January 19-21, 2012.

FREDERICKpolls
Project #13025

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the key findings of a statewide telephone survey conducted in Virginia. The survey was completed January 19-21, 2012, among 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of +4.38%. The survey included 120 interviews with cell phone respondents. Jim Hobart and Keith Frederick were the principal researchers on this project. Court Hall provided analytical support.

In conducting the survey, we used a Random Digit Dialing (RDD) sample for the 375 interviews conducted via landline. An RDD sample generates a random list of phone numbers at telephone exchanges within a given geographic area (i.e. county or state). For the 125 interviews conducted via cell phone, sample is generated using a similar process as RDD. Cell sample generates a random list of phone numbers by utilizing specific cell phone exchanges within a given geographic area (i.e. county or state). Looking at the demographics, they closely mirror what an off-year electorate in Virginia will look like. By ethnicity, 68% of the sample was white, 20% was African American, 5% was Hispanic, 3% was Asian and 1% was some other race. Three percent (3%) of respondents refused to state their ethnicity. These percentages are almost identical to the numbers in the 2012 exit poll. By age, 39% of respondents were age 18-44, 42% were age 45-64, and 19% were age 65+. Again, these numbers are close to the percentages in the 2012 exit poll, while also reflecting the likelihood that the 2013 electorate in Virginia will be an older electorate than what we saw in 2012. Finally, by party, 39% of respondents identified themselves as Republicans, 42% as Democrats, and 18% said they were Independent. As with the age and ethnicity demographics, these numbers are similar to what we saw in the 2012 exit polls while also indicating that the 2013 electorate will likely be slightly more Republican.

Voters across party lines have a positive outlook on the direction of the state.
Would you say that things in Virginia are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Overall
+43%
Refused 1%

By Party
+40% +20% +39% +14%

No Opinion 9%

67%

66% 53%

62% 53% 39% 33%

Wrong Track 30%

24%

26%

23%

Right Direction 60%

Base GOP (22%)

Soft GOP (17%)

Independent (18%)

Right Direction

Soft Democrat (16%) Wrong Track

Base Democrat (26%)

The Presidents job approval mirrors the election results.

Thinking nationally, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
Total Approve: Total Disapprove: 51% 48%

By Party
-96% -74% -1% +78% +96%

Don't Know 1% Definitely Disapprove 41% Strongly Approve 34%

98% 87% 88%

98%

48% 49%

13% 2%
Somewhat Disapprove 7% Somewhat Approve 17%

10% 2% Independent (18%) Soft Base Democrat Democrat (16%) (26%) Total Disapprove

Base GOP (22%)

Soft GOP (17%)

Total Approve

An overwhelming majority of Virginians say it is important that lawmakers pass a long-term funding plan for transportation.
Thinking now about transportation, it has been 26 years since Virginia lawmakers passed any type of long-term plan for transportation funding. How important is it to you that lawmakers pass a transportation funding plan this session to address this issue?
Not At All Important 5% Not Very Important 11%

Total Important: Total Not Important:

83% 16%

Don't Know 1%

Very Important 44%

Somewhat Important 39%

The budget shortfall for new road construction is a concern for a large majority of voters in Virginia.
Still thinking about Transportation, Virginia is taking $364 million per year right now away from new construction projects to fund simple maintenance projects like patching potholes. That amount will grow to $500 million per year soon, which means there will be no funding available for new highways and roads. How concerning is this new construction budget shortfall to you?
Total Concerning: Total Not Concerning: 79% 20%
Not Very Concerning 14% Not At All Concerning 6% Don't Know 1% Very Concerning 38%

Somewhat Concerning 41%

A majority of Virginians favor the Governors transportation plan.

Now I would like to read you a description of the proposed transportation plan Do you favor or oppose this plan?

As you may know, Governor Bob McDonnells transportation plan would close the shortfall in the states road maintenance account and inject more than $3 billion into Virginias highways, rail, and transit systems in the next five years and continue to provide funding in the years to follow. This additional revenue would be generated by eliminating the current gas tax of seventeen point five cents per gallon and replacing it with and eight tenths of one penny increase in the states sales tax. The additional revenue from the state sales tax increase would be dedicated entirely to transportation.

Total Favor: Total Oppose:

Don't Know 7% Strongly Oppose 16% Refused 1%*

62%* 31%

Strongly Favor 23%

Somewhat Oppose 15%

Somewhat Favor 38%

*Denotes Rounding

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Support for the Governors transportation plan is strong across party lines.
By Party
+50% +46% +25% +30% +8%

72%

69% 57% 61% 51% 43% 32% 22% 23% 31%

Base GOP (22%)

Soft GOP (17%)

Independent (18%) Total Favor

Soft Democrat (16%)

Base Democrat (26%)

Total Oppose

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Virginians in all media markets are in favor of the Governors proposal.

By DMA Roanoke (14%)
Favor Oppose 66% 28%

Richmond (18%)
Favor Oppose 57% 29%

Washington, D.C. (36%)

Favor Oppose 60% 33%

Other (11%)
Favor Oppose 74% 19%

Norfolk (22%)
Favor Oppose 59% 37%

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Virginians across the ideological spectrum favor the Governors transportation proposal.
By Ideology
+55% +32% +25% +15% +57% +43%

73% 64% 58% 54% 39% 32% 18% 33%

75% 69%

26% 18%

Very Conservative (20%)

Somewhat Conservative (18%)

Moderate (39%) Total Favor

Liberal (20%) Total Oppose

Moderate/Liberal GOP (12%)

Conservative Ind/Dem (12%)

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Voters overwhelmingly prefer the Governors plan to an alternative plan being floated.
Still thinking about transportation, there are two proposals to increase transportation funding that involve the gas tax. I am going to read you both proposals and please tell me which one comes closest to your own opinion.

69%

Some people say that in order to increase transportation funding, the current gas tax of seventeen point five cents per gallon should be eliminated and replaced with an eight tenths of a penny increase in the state sales tax. The additional revenue from the state sales tax increase would be dedicated entirely to transportation and Virginias state sales tax would still be the lowest in the region.
while

21%

Other people say that in order to increase transportation funding, the current gas tax of seventeen point five cents per gallon should be increased by ten cents to twenty seven point five cents per gallon. The gas tax would also be indexed to inflation so that it would increase at the same rate as inflation. 15

A strong majority of voters say it is time to improve transportation so job creation and growth wont be hurt.
Continuing to think about transportation, I would like to read you two statements about transportation funding in the state. After I read each one, please tell me which comes closest to your own opinion.

69%

Some people say that since it has been 26 years since Virginia did anything long-term to improve transportation, the state needs new funding or else job creation and growth will be hurt in the state. They say the state needs to pass a transportation funding plan this year.

while

27%

Other people say Virginias economy is doing fine without more transportation funding. They say Virginia should continue to wait and address transportation later because the national economy remains shaky.

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