National Center for Education Statistics
Table A-22. Enrollment (assumptions)
Variable
Elementary and secondary enrollment
The percentage of 7th- and 8th-grade public students enrolled in
College enrollment, by age, sex, and
attendance status
2006 pessimistic scenario and the log unemployment rate by age
College enrollment, by sex, attendance
status, level enrolled, and type of institution
College enrollment, by control of institution
Graduate enrollment
College enrollment, by age, sex,
attendance status, and race/ethnicity
Full-time: White, Non-Hispanic men; White,
Non-Hispanic women; Black, Non-Hispanic
men; Black, Non-Hispanic women;
Hispanic men; Hispanic women;
Asian/Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic men;
Asian/Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic
women. Part-time: White, Non-Hispanic
women; Black, Non-Hispanic men; Black,
Non-Hispanic women; Hispanic men;
Hispanic women; Asian/Pacific Islander,
Non-Hispanic men; Asian/Pacific Islander,
Non-Hispanic women
Part-time White, Non-Hispanic men
Full-time-equivalent of part-time enrollment
Assumptions Alternatives Tables
Age-specific enrollment rates will remain constant at levels Middle 1-9
consistent with the most recent rates. (no alternatives)
Public enrollment rates and public grade retention rates will Middle 1-9
remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. (no alternatives)
Middle 1-9
schools organized as secondary schools will remain constant at (no alternatives)
levels consistent with the most recent rates.
Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables Middle 10-19
by age, the log of three-period weighted average of real
disposable income per capita from the Global Insight’s February
2006 trend scenario and the log unemployment rate by age
group from the Global Insight’s February 2006 trend scenario.
Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables Low 10-19
by age, the log of three-period weighted average of real
disposable income per capita from the Global Insight’s February
group from the Global Insight’s February 2006 pessimistic
scenario.
Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables High 10-19
by age, the log of three-period weighted average of real
disposable income per capita from the Global Insight’s February
2006 optimistic scenario and the log unemployment rate by age
group from the Global Insight’s February 2006 optimistic
scenario.
For each group and for each attendance status separately, High, middle, and low 10-19
percent of total enrollment by sex, level enrolled, and type of
institution will follow past trends through 2016. For each age
group and attendance status category, the sum of the
percentages must equal 100 percent.
For each enrollment category, by sex, attendance status, and High, middle, and low 10-19
level enrolled, and by type of institution, public enrollment as a
percent of total enrollment will remain constant at levels
consistent with the most recent rates.
For each enrollment category, by sex and attendance status of High, middle, and low 20
student, and by type and control of institution, graduate
enrollment as a percent of postbaccalaureate enrollment will
remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates.
Age-specific enrollment rates by race/ethnicity are a function of Middle 22
dummy variables by age and the log of the corresponding (no alternatives)
race/ethnicty group's disposable income per capita in current
dollars.
Age-specific enrollment rates by race/ethnicity are a function of Middle 22
dummy variables by age and the log of real total compensation. (no alternatives)
For each enrollment category, by type and control of institution and High, middle, and low 23
level enrolled, the percent that full-time-equivalent of part-time
enrollment is of part-time enrollment will remain constant at levels
consistent with the most recent rates.
 For each enrollment category, by type and control of institution and
level enrolled, the percent that full-time-equivalent of part-time
enrollment is of part-time enrollment will remain constant at levels
consistent with the most recent rates.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2004; State
Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2004; Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model, 1980–2005; and Enrollment in Degree-
Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1980–2005. (This table was prepared January 2007.)