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Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
THE
1/31/13
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
GASOLINE
Low (date)
High (date)
$2.63 (6/21) $3.38(10/11) $2.61(12/10) $3.50(4/3) $2.58 (6/21) $3.33(3/16) $2.61 (6/21) $3.69(10/9) $2.24(6/27) $3.25(3/23)
$2.35(12/13) $3.32(9/11)
$2.50 (6/21) $3.41(10/11) $2.22(12/18) $3.72(3/20) $2.43 (12/13) $4.29(10/4) $2.37 (12/13) $4.22(10/4) $2.36 (12/6) $3.79(5/23)
Los Angeles $2.56 (6/21) $3.47(8/30) S.F. Pac NW $2.54 (6/21) $3.52(8/31) $2.62 (6/21) $3.63 (4/3)
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
ANS - $103/bbl
WCS Hardisty, Alberta - $56/bbl SynCrude Hardisty, Alberta - $86/bbl
Bakken - $85/bbl
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
TMC Forecasts
Total US/Canada increase of 4.6 MMBPD by 2020(from 2011 levels)
U.S. growth of 3.1 MMBPD (to 8.8 MMBPD) Canadian growth of 1.5 MMBPD (to 4.5 MMBPD) U.S. growth mostly in PADDs 2 and 3 Declines in Alaska/California to continue Canadian growth primarily in the West Revision in upward direction is more likely
Forecast assumptions
Crude prices (LLS/Brent) remain in $90 to $120 range Assumes some limitations (manpower, materials, regulatory, etc.) Limited production from some high potential prospects Logistical assets are built to move crude to markets in a timely fashion
Source: Turner Mason Company Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
Source: Turner Mason Company Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Heavy 2%
Heavy 2%
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
What does this mean? Bakken and similar U.S. crudes are cheap versus offshore blends, but they come with some unwanted friends. Propane grills and butane lighters should be well supplied. Well make more of those unwanted liquids, even though prices are well below break-even for crude processors. The most highly prized molecule -- diesel -- wont be as easy to manufacture, at least until refineries invest in some additional equipment.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
1/31/13
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Shallow product inventories are quick-to-fill, but also quick-to-empty Storage per capita is a mere fraction of what it was in 1975-1985 Refinery turnarounds, maintenance, and projects accent the tidal swings Nowhere is this more of an issue than California, and the West Coast.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
10
1/31/13
Chicago
Gasoline $2.45-$3.46/gal ULSD $2.65-$3.33/gal
San Francisco
Gasoline $2.39-$4.14/gal ULSD $2.54-$3.44/gal
Group 3
Gasoline $2.57-$3.32/gal ULSD $2.66-$3.65/gal
Los Angeles
Gasoline $2.41-$4.29/gal ULSD $2.66-$3.47/gal
Gulf Coast
Gasoline $2.45-$3.46/gal ULSD $2.65-$3.33/gal
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
2012 2010
2011 2009
Ja
Fe
Se
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
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1/31/13
0.350
0.300
0.250
0.227 0.203 0.215
0.249 0.237
0.200
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.000
New England Mid-Atlantic Southeast Great Lakes Midwest Southwest Rockies West USA Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Predictions
North America will have much cheaper crude than the rest of the world in this decade. Combined with the cheapest natural gas, that could lead to a renaissance in some industries. The seasonality of gasoline will only increase as time goes on. There are fundamental reasons why this market is bipolar. Buying in bulk on large pricing downdrafts gives marketers a huge advantage. Volatility can be leveraged for some smart businesses. Iran, and world hot spots can change everything, but not in a secular manner. ..
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
12
1/31/13
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
13
1/31/13
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Feb. 2 6, 2013 Savannah International Trade & Convention Center Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa Savannah, Ga.
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