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16
Comments
The material presented in this chapter may be new to most students and so likely requires several classes to cover. In particular, the sections on valuing income streams, classical theory of asset prices, and measuring interest rates and asset returns require working through mathematical examples. The case studies accompanying the material on asset-price bubbles and asset-price crashes provide good applications of the analysis and are likely to be of keen interest to students.
Chapter Supplements
This chapter includes the following supplements: 16-1 16-2 16-3 16-4 16-5 16-6 16-7 16-8 16-9 The Stock Market and Consumer Spending A Different View of the Stock Exchange The Importance of Asset Pricing for Macroeconomics Stock Prices and Efficient Markets Bond Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Bubbles, Excess Volatility, and Fads The Capital-Asset Pricing Model Animal Spirits Taxes, Babies, and Housing
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Lecture Notes
Introduction
Supplement 16-1, The Stock Market and Consumer Spending and Supplement 16-3 The Importance of Asset Pricing for Macroeconomics
Prices of stocks and bonds fluctuate every day that the markets are open, sometimes moving sharply in a very short period of time. These fluctuations in asset prices affect peoples wealth, and thereby the overall economy, through changes in consumer spending. This chapter discusses factors influencing the movement of asset prices, focusing on the valuation of the income streams that assets pay to investors. The experience of asset-price bubbles and asset-price crashes, as occurred during the early 2000s and more recently, is highlighted. Finally, the chapter considers the term structure of interest rates.
Future Value
The value in the future of an investment of one dollar today is known as the investments future value. For example, if you deposit a dollar in a bank today that pays 4 percent interest per year, you will receive $1.04 in a year. In two years, you will receive $1.04 x $1.04 $1.082. Likewise, after 3 years, you would receive $1.13 3 n $(1.04) . And, after n years, you would receive $(1.04) . More generally, for an n interest rate of i (expressed in decimal form), you would receive (1 i) .
Present Value
The present value of a future dollar is the amount an investor is willing to pay today in order to receive in the future a payment of one dollar. A dollar n years n from now is worth 1/(1 i) dollars today. An increase in the interest rate will lower the present value of future money. When the future payment is not a single one but is instead a series of payments over a number of years, the present value is given by: Present Value $X1/(1 i1) $X2/(1 i2)
2
$X3/(1
i3)
...
$XT/(1
iT)
And when payments continue forever (so that there is no end period T), we can derive a simple formula for the present value if the payments each year are the same amount: Present Value $Z /(1 i1) $Z /(1 i2)
2
$Z /(1
i3)
...
$Z /(1
iT)
...
$Z /i Another type of perpetual income stream is one where the income paid each year grows at a fixed rate. For example, suppose that the payment, $Z , grows at a rate of g each year. The present value of this type of stream also has a simple formula: Present Value $Z /(1 i1) $Z (1 g)/(1 i2) $Z (1 g) /(1 T 1 T . . . $Z (1 g) /(1 iT) . . . $Z /(i g)
2 2
i3)
Lecture Notes
387
Table 16-1
As for the previous constant perpetual income stream, the present value here depends positively on the initial payment and negatively on the interest rate. But it now also depends positively on the growth rate of the payment.
C/(1
i)
C/(1
i)
...
C/(1
i)
T1
(C
F)/(1
i) ,
where we assume no risk of default so that bondholders expect to receive all payments. Applying the classical theory to stocks gives the following relationship between the price of the stock today, its expected future dividend payments (Dt), and the interest rate: Stock Price
Supplement 16-4, Stock Prices and Efficient Markets
D1/(1
i)
D2/(1
i)
...
D3/(1
i)
...
Dividends are paid out of a firms earnings, and so will vary from year to year. And in some years, a firm may opt to not pay any dividend and instead use its earnings to finance investment projects. But over the long run, dividends are closely related to earnings since a firm that invests its earnings today will be one that has greater future returns and thus is expected to pay higher dividends in the future. Accordingly, a firms earnings performance will have a strong influence on its stock price.
Table 16-2
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D1(1
g)/(1
i)
D1(1
g) /(1
i)
... g)
D1(1
g) /(1
i)
...
Stock Price
Table 16-1
D1/(i
Lecture Notes
389
Figure 16-1
stock prices. Third, the reduction in output raises uncertainty because it is difficult to know how badly companies will perform. This increase in uncertainty is associated with a higher risk-adjusted interest rate, which lowers the present value of dividends and thereby stock prices. Changes in the federal funds rate will have effects only when they are unexpected. If people knew in advance of a change in monetary policy, stock prices would adjust in advance and no change would occur when the policy was actually implemented. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and economist Kenneth Kuttner studied the response of the stock market to surprise announcements of changes in the Feds target for the federal funds rate. They found that a quarterpoint increase in the target was associated with a sudden drop in stock prices of 1 percent. A decrease in the target rate had the opposite effect.
Some asset prices fluctuate more than others. Long-term bond prices change more than short-term bond prices when interest rates change because the present value of payments is affected by more when the payments come in the distant future than in the near future. Stock prices fluctuate more than prices for bonds, including long-term bonds. One reason stock prices are very volatile is that dividend payments continue indefinitely into the future, so that the income stream is very long and changes in interest rates will have large effects on the present value of this stream. Another reason is that news about firms and the economy affect expectations of future earnings and dividends, leading to changes in stock prices.
The classical theory states that the price of an asset equals the present value of expected income from that asset over time. Many economists, however, believe that asset prices can fluctuate for reasons apart from the classical theory. Asset price increases, for example, may be part of an asset-price bubblea situation where asset prices rise rapidly even though there has been no change in expected income or interest rates to support such an increase.
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from mid-2006 through early 2009. Bubbles have also occurred in the prices of bonds, foreign currencies, precious metals, and commodities. A famous bubble occurred in Holland during the 1630s when the prices of tulip bulbs increased enormously before abruptly crashing.
Figure 16-2
Figure 16-3
Lecture Notes
391
2009, as people believed the worst of the crisis was past. Expectations of future income increased and risk-adjusted interest rates declined, pushing stock prices upward over the next year.
Crash Prevention
Two important rules have been adopted in the aftermath of the stock-market crashes of 1929 and 1987 that are intended to limit the potential for future crashes. The Federal Reserve, using authority granted by the Congress, instituted margin requirements in the 1930s. This rule limits the amount people can borrow to buy stock. The exact amount has varied over the years and has been 50 percent recently. Margin requirements constrain the ability of people to bid stocks upward on the basis of borrowed money alone and thereby help prevent bubbles that precede crashes. Following the 1987 crash, the securities exchanges established circuit breakers that require trading to be halted temporarily if prices fall sharply. Circuit breakers are intended to slow down self-fulfilling panicked selling and price decline by giving traders time to think things over. Current rules at the New York Stock Exchange require a trading halt if prices fall 10 percent during a day. The length of the suspension depends on the size of the decline and the time of day when the decline occurs, with longer suspensions for larger declines and those happening later in the day.
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Yield to Maturity
The price of a bond is equal to the present value of its stream of coupon payments including its face value paid when the bond matures. The interest rate (i) that solves this relationship is known as the yield to maturity: Bond Price
C/(1
i)
C/(1
i)
...
C/(1
i)
T1
(C
F)/(1
i)
To solve for i requires using trial and error, as this equation does not allow for an easy solution. The yield to maturity moves inversely with the price of the bond, just as the classical theory implies for asset prices and interest rates in general.
Stock returns are more volatile than bond returns. The main reason is that stock prices fluctuate more than bond prices. But, while returns on stocks are more volatile, the average rate of return is higher for stocks, which is necessary to compensate savers for holding an asset with a more uncertain return.
Bonds vary in the interest rates that they pay. This occurs in part because of differences in credit risk and taxes. But it also occurs because of differences in the maturity, or term, of the bonds. Longer-term bonds usually pay higher interest rates than shorter-term bonds. The term structure of interest rates describes the relationship among interest rates on bonds with different maturities.
Lecture Notes
393
As discussed earlier, long-term bonds are riskier than short-term bonds because their prices are subject to greater volatility when interest rates change. This difference in risk implies that long-term bonds should have higher expected earnings than short-term bonds. To capture the risk, the term structure of expectations must be modified to include a term premium (n ) for long-term interest rates: in (t) (1/n)[ I1 (t) EI1 (t 1) ... EI1 (t n 1)] . Term premiums will be greater for bonds of longer maturity compared with those of shorter maturity.
Figure 16-8
The term structure of interest rates can be represented by a yield curve, which shows the interest rates on bonds of different maturities in a given time period. Depending on expectations about future interest rates, the yield curve can take on different shapes. Generally, the yield curve is upward sloping since term premiums are larger on long-term bonds compared with short-term bonds. But when people expect shortterm interest rates to rise, the yield curve is even steeper, and when people expect short-term interest rates to fall, the yield curve is flat. An inverted yield curve can occur if people expect a very large fall in short-term interest rates. Because the expected path of short-term interest rates determines the shape of the yield curve, we can use the yield curve to forecast future interest rates. A very steep yield curve means that short-term rates are expected to rise. An inverted yield curve implies that short-term rates are expected to fall sharply.
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Figure 16-8
that accompanied monetary tightening occurred during 1981 when inflation was running near 10 percent and the Federal Reserve had tightened policy to reduce inflation. The 3-month Treasury bill rate rose to 15 percent and the yield curve inverted because people expected short-term interest rates to fall sharply in subsequent years. By 1983, the T-bill rate was 8 percent and by 1986 it was 6 percent.
16-8 Conclusion
Changes in asset prices have important effects on the economy because they lead to changes in wealth that affect consumer spending and output. Economists use the classical theory of asset prices to explain asset-price movements. But the theory sometimes fails to explain changes in asset prices, particularly during bubbles and crashes. Unlike earlier chapters that emphasized the interest rate for the economy, this chapter considers how the economy has many interest rates and describes the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates.
LECTURE
SUPPLEMENT
Greenspans view is consistent with well-accepted models, that relate a households consumption to its wealth. But a key additional question is whether the gains in the stock market were large enough to offset the fact that holdings of equities remain highly concentrated among a very small set of households. Even though more than half of all U.S. households now hold some equities (mainly through 401k retirement accounts), the distribution is still highly skewed, with the richest 5 percent of households owning 75 percent of equity wealth and the richest 20 percent owning 95 percent of equity wealth. Some recent evidence suggests that the largest effects on spending were indeed seen among the very wealthy, and were big enough to be consistent with the view that gains in the stock market had a direct effect on spending for the economy as a whole.2 But another possibility is that indirect effects were also important, whereby households who did not own equities (or owned relatively few) still increased their spending because a rising stock market made them feel more confident about the future.3 As the stock market fell sharply during 20002001, many analysts speculated that the drop in wealth (which was the first outright decline in annual nominal household net worth since at least 1945) would lead to a pullback in consumer spending and a deepening of the recession. Consumer spending, however, remained relatively buoyant during 2001 and into 2002suggesting either that other factors had come into play or perhaps that the link between wealth and consumption is more complicated than we thought.
1 2
Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, February 17, 2000.
See K. E. Dynan and D. M. Maki, "Does Stock Market Wealth Matter for Consumption?" Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Paper 2001-23, May 2001; and D. M. Maki and M. G. Palumbo, "Disentangling the Wealth Effect: A Cohort Analysis of Household Saving in the 1990s" Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Paper 2001-21, April 2001. See J. M. Poterba, "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives 14, no. 2 (Spring 2000): 99118.
395
LECTURE
SUPPLEMENT
From T. Glickman and G. Glickman, The New York Red Pages: A Radical Tourist Guide (New York: Praeger, 1984), 26. Glickman and Glickman cite the quoted passage on the founding of the Exchange as coming from Frederick Collins, Moneytown.
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ADVANCED
TOPIC
1 2 3
R. Shiller, Market Volatility (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989) and R. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000). Shillers theories are discussed further in Supplement 16-6, Bubbles, Excess Volatility, and Fads. See Supplements 16-4, Stock Prices and Efficient Markets, 16-5, Bond Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates, and 16-6, Bubbles, Excess Volatility, and Fads. See Supplement 16-1, The Stock Market and Consumer Spending.
397
ADVANCED
TOPIC
pt (1 + r) = dt+1 + pt+1
pt = 1 (dt+1 + pt+1). 1 r This is the basic equation for the pricing of a stock. It tells us that the price of a stock today depends upon the dividend it will pay next period and the price of the stock next period. An analogous equation will hold for the price of the stock next period: 1 (d + pt+2). 1 r t+2 Substituting this into the previous equation, we can therefore write pt+1 = 1 1 2 pt = (dt+2 + pt+2). dt+1 + 1 r 1 r
398
Chapter Supplements
399
By repeated substitution of this kind, we can ultimately write the current price of the stock solely in terms of the future dividends: 1 1 1 1 Pt = dt +1 + 1 + r dt + 2 + 1 + r dt + 3 + 1 + r dt + 4 + . . . , 1 + r
2 3 4
The price of the stock is indeed just given by the present discounted value of the stream of dividends that the stock will pay. Investors dont know future dividends with certainty, so the price of a stock actually depends upon their expectations of these dividends. If investors are risk neutral, meaning that they care only about average return and do not worry about risk, then arbitrage will imply that the expected holding return on the stock will equal the interest rate.2 The price of the stock is then the present discounted value of expected future dividends. If the market is efficient, then investors will be making the best possible forecast that they can of future dividends, given the information that is available to them. In this case, the price of the stock will reflect all the information available in the market about the likely profitability of the company.3 An important implication of this is that changes in stock prices should come about only as a result of new information. Thus, changes in stock prices should not be predictable on the basis of any currently available information, for if they were, arbitragers would be able to make profits.4 The overall value of the stock market, by extension, should reflect investors best predictions about the future profitability of all firms (and hence, among other things, about the future state of the U.S. economy). Economists who are skeptical about the efficiency of the stock market point to the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987 as evidence of inefficiency. The Dow Jones index fell 23 percent in one day in October 1987. Although large fluctuations in stock prices are not themselves necessarily inconsistent with stock market efficiency, there was no obvious new information that could have led investors to revise their opinion about the probable future profitability of U.S. firms to such a dramatic extent.5 Others have pointed out that information may be transmitted imperfectly within the market, so stock prices may change as a result of the transmission of news in the market. The market may rationally revise its view of the fundamentals even when no new outside news arrives.6
2 3 4
Supplement 16-7, The Capital-Asset Pricing Model, considers how riskiness affects asset prices.
Different definitions of market efficiency are sometimes used depending upon exactly what information is reflected in the price of the stock.
This idea is sometimes loosely referred to as the random-walk theory: stock prices should follow a random walk. See S. LeRoy, Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales, Journal of Economic Literature 27 (December 1989) (particularly Section III) for a good discussion.
5 6
See Supplement 16-6, Bubbles, Excess Volatility, and Fads, for more discussion of stock market efficiency.
See, for example, D. Romer, Rational Asset-Price Movement Without News, American Economic Review 83, no. 5 (December 1993): 111230.
ADVANCED
TOPIC
1 3 1 r
. . . C,
where C is the coupon payment. The sum of the infinite series in parentheses is simply 1/r, so we have C PDV = . r
1 2 3
Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 1988 Yearbook (Chicago: Ibbotson Associates, 1988), 77. See Supplement 16-7, The Capital-Asset Pricing Model.
Bonds may, and often do, pay coupons more frequently than annually; for ease of presentation we here take the relevant time period for analysis to be a year.
4 5
More generally, if a bond comes to maturity M periods from now, we can write
M 1 2 1 1 3 1 C+ C+ C+...+ (C + F), 1+r 1+r 1+r 1+r where C is the coupon payment, F is the face value, and r is an appropriate interest rate.
PDV =
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
400
Chapter Supplements
401
Equally, just as the holding return on a stock at time t depends upon the dividend that it pays next period and the change in the price (capital gain or loss) between this period and next period, so the holding return on a bond depends upon the coupon payment and the change in the price. The coupon payment, however, does not vary over time and so does not need to be predicted. Letting pt be the price of the bond and ht be the return on the bond, we have C pt+1 pt ht = + . pt pt If we set this return to be constant between now and the time of maturity (that is, set ht = r for every year), we can calculate the yield to maturity (r) of the bond. When people speak of the interest rate on a bond, they usually are referring to the yield to maturity. We have rpt = C + pt+1 pt 1 pt = (C + pt+1). 1 r An equation like this holds for every period. By repeated substitution we can write the price of a bond at time t as6 1 1 1 Pt = C+ C+ C+ ... 1 + r 1 + r 1 + r = C/r, confirming that the price of the consol is indeed simply the coupon divided by the interest rate. The important conclusion from this analysis is that bond prices and interest rates are inversely related: when bond prices fall, interest rates rise. The term structure considers how the interest rates on bonds of different maturities are related. The principal theory of the term structure of interest rates is known as the expectations theory. The basic idea of this theory is very intuitive: agents should expect to gain the same return by investing in a long-term bond or by investing in a succession of short-term bonds. For simplicity, we restrict attention here to zero-coupon bonds. Thus, imagine an investor who can invest (at time t) in a two-year bond with annual interest rate (1) r , or who can instead invest in a one-year bond at the interest rate rt , and then take the (1) proceeds and reinvest them in another one-year bond paying an interest rate r t+1 : The expectations theory of the term structure then states that (1 + rt )2 = (1 + rt )(1 + r t+1 ). As an approximation, we can write rt
(2) (2) (1) (1)
We can again consider the more general case, in which this equation holds up to the period before the bond comes to maturity. The price when the bond comes to maturity is simply the face value: pt+M = F. After repeated substitution we obtain 1 1 2 1 3 M 1 PDV = 1 + r C + 1 + r C + 1 + r C + . . . + (C + F), 1+r
( ) ( ) ( )
p
ZC = t
( )
so the price of a bond does indeed equal the present discounted value of the coupon payments and the face value. Note that zero-coupon bonds are particularly simple to price: F (1 + r)
M
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In other words, the annual return on the two-year bond is approximately the average of this years and next years return on one-year bonds. This basic approach is easily extended to bonds of longer maturity. (1) Investors making decisions this year do not know next years interest rate (r t+1) with certainty, however. Thus, the term structure actually describes a relationship between the interest rate on a long bond and current and expected future interest rates on short bonds. The interest rate on long bonds relative to short bonds thus reflects agents expectations about future interest rates. To see this clearly, subtract rt(1) from both sides of the previous equation to get r (2) r t
(1) t
r (1) rt t+1 . 2
(1)
According to this equation, the long rate will exceed the short rate if interest rates are expected to rise, and the short rate will exceed the long rate if interest rates are expected to fall. The expectations theory of the term structure explains theoretically why different interest rates tend to move together, since it shows that the interest rate on a long bond is simply an average of the interest rates on short bonds. The expectations theory does not explain another fact about the term structure, however: long bonds generally have a higher return than short bonds. According to the expectations theory, the interest rate on long bonds is lower whenever investors anticipate a fall in interest rates, but it seems improbable that investors are always expecting interest rates to rise. The term structure as set out so far neglects the fact that individuals may have a preference for shorter bonds because they dislike the risk associated with changes in the price (that is, capital gains or losses) of long-term bonds. There may therefore be a liquidity premium that must be paid in order to persuade individuals to hold long bonds. In this case, the long rate will exceed the short rate even if no change in interest rates is anticipated. Since this is what we observe in the data, it seems likely that liquidity premiums are important.
ADVANCED
TOPIC
P. Garber, Famous First Bubbles, Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, no. 2 (Spring 1990): 37. The description of historical bubbles here is based on Garbers account. Garber actually argues that this and other classic examples of bubbles should not be viewed as signaling failure of efficiency or rationality of investors. Ibid., see Figure 3. Interestingly, the existence of bubbles need not imply irrationality. Economists have derived conditions under which the price of an asset can contain a bubble component, even when agents are rationally anticipating the future price movements of the asset. A good, though difficult, discussion is in O. Blanchard and S. Fischer, Lectures in Macroeconomics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989), Chapter 5. There is extensive literature on this subject, which largely originated from the following two papers: R. Shiller, Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? American Economic Review 71 (1981): 42136; S. LeRoy and R. Porter, The Present Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981): 55574. See Supplement 16-4, Stock Prices and Efficient Markets. More formally, under rational expectations the forecast error should be uncorrelated with the actual price, since otherwise the forecast is not optimal. The theory can then be tested by looking at the variance of the actual and perfect-foresight prices. Shillers original argument was criticized by a number of authors on the basis of some technical statistical arguments (very roughly, under some dividend policies, the stock price may follow a random walk; if so, the test is not valid). Subsequent tests that correct such statistical problems still retain the basic message, however.
2 3
5 6
403
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Researchers have also tried to see if the actual behavior of asset prices can be explained (after the fact) by the behavior of fundamentals. Richard Roll looked at the price of orange juice futures and argued that changes in these prices should be primarily caused by news of the Florida weather.7 In contrast to what market efficiency would suggest, he found that these prices varied much more than could be accounted for by weather news. Yet another way to look for inefficiency in asset markets is to see whether there are unexploited profit opportunitiesways to get something for nothing. Economists have looked to see if there are trading rules: simple rules that could be mechanically applied and that would earn above average profits. Karl Case and Robert Shiller suggested that a simple trading strategy could have exploited profit opportunities in the real estate market.8 Bruce Lehmann showed that a contrarian strategy of taking short positions in winners (selling stocks whose prices have recently increased) and long positions in losers (buying stocks whose prices have recently fallen) would have made a profit over the period 19621986.9 Such findings are intriguing but do not prove inefficiency. First, it has to be demonstrated that excess profits are large enough to overcome the transactions costs of implementing the rule. Second, identifying a profitable trading rule on the basis of past data is not a guarantee that it will work in the future. Third, as Donald McCloskey points out, such researchers must answer the American Question: if youre so smart, why aint you rich?10 Of course, some providers of investment advice do get rich by advising the market. The fact that some advisers do succeed in outperforming the market is also apparently inconsistent with simple notions of market efficiency. There are many such providers operating, however, and so we should expect that some should turn out to do well just by chance. The important question is, do we think that an investment service is likely to be able to beat the market in the future if we observe that it has succeeded in so doing in the past? On the basis of his research on different asset markets, Shiller argues that market efficiency cannot provide an adequate explanation of the behavior of asset prices. Shillers preferred theory is that fads and fashions play an important role in the determination of such prices. Progress in explaining the behavior of asset prices may require economists to move beyond naive models of rational behavior and pay much more attention to work in social psychology and sociology. Surveys seem to provide support for this view. For example, Shiller and co-researchers found that a majority of investors themselves explain the fall in the stock market in October 1987 in terms of investor psychology rather than movements in fundamentals. Surveys also reveal that speculative considerations were a major motivation for house purchases in areas experiencing real estate booms.11 Not all economists share Shillers view. Some believe that markets are basically efficient; apparent weaknesses in efficient-market models may just signal that we do not yet understand the fundamentals well enough.12 Others agree that markets are inefficient but suggest that cognitive psychological, rather than social psychological (that is, individually rather than socially based), explanations are more promising.13
7 8 9
R. Roll, Orange Juice and Weather, American Economic Review 74 (December 1984): 86180. K. Case and R. Shiller, The Efficiency of the Market for Single Family Homes, American Economic Review 79 (1989): 12537. B. Lehmann, Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency, Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (February 1990): 128.
10 11
D. McCloskey, The Rhetoric of Economics (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1985), 16.
See R. Shiller, Speculative Prices and Popular Models, Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, no. 2 (Spring 1990): 5566; R. Shiller and K. Case, The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets, New England Economic Review (1988): 2946; and also R. Shiller, Market Volatility (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989), Ch. 23.
12
See, for example, J. Cochrane, Volatility Tests and Efficient Markets: A Review Essay, Journal of Monetary Economics 27 (June 1991): 46385. One important question, analyzed by Sanford Grossman, concerns how different individuals private information is aggregated into the prices of stocks. Grossman observes that for any individual investor the price of a stock provides an (imperfect) summary of the information of other agents. Now suppose some investors (noise traders) trade for reasons unconnected with changes in information. If the demand of these traders falls, then other traders observe a fall in the price. These traders know that this may reflect new negative information of other informed traders, and so change their demands. Grossman argues that such behavior may help to explain financial panics such as the October 1987 crash. See S. Grossman, The Informational Role of Prices (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989). See, for example, S. LeRoy, Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales, Journal of Economic Literature 27, no. 4 (December 1989): 1616.
13
ADVANCED
TOPIC
1 2
See Supplement 16-5, Bond Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates. This is ignored in the discussions of asset pricing in Supplements 164, Stock Prices and Efficient Markets, and 16-5, Bond Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates; those focus on arbitrage by risk-neutral investors. W. Sharpe, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, Journal of Finance 19 (September 1964): 42542; J. Lintner, The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets, Review of Economics and Statistics 47 (February 1965): 1337. Note that there would actually be no good reason to construct this portfolio, or indeed to hold asset B at all, in this case, since asset A offers the same return with less risk.
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Market portfolio
Y X
Whereas investors could in principle hold any portfolio lying on or under the set of efficient portfolios, they would never want to do so. They could always get a higher return and/or lower risk by holding the market portfolio. The CAPM thus leads to the remarkable conclusion that all investors should hold the same portfolio of risky assets, and take different risk positions simply by holding relatively more or less of the risk-free asset.5 Another important implication of the capital-asset pricing model is that the key risk characteristic of an asset is not its individual riskiness, but the extent to which it varies with the market. An asset that tends to move with the market portfolio possesses a great deal of undiversifiable risk; its price will tend to be relatively low. An asset that tends to move in the opposite direction to the market is valuable because it permits diversification and so will command a high price. (As an example, suppose in the earlier analysis that asset A is the market portfolio. Asset B would not be valuable if it tended to move with asset A but would be very valuable in the case where it tended to move in the opposite direction.) Assets with relatively low prices have relatively high expected returns, and vice versa. Thus, assets that move with the market are relatively risky (in the sense of undiversifiable risk), and so investors must be compensated with a relatively high expected return. Assets that move in the opposite direction to the market are valuable because of their risk characteristics and so have a lower expected return. In fact, the CAPM shows that the excess return (that is, the return above the risk-free rate) on an asset is related in a simple way to the tendency of an asset to move with the market. Specifically, we can write hi r = i (hm r), where hi is the expected return on stock i, hm is the expected return on the market portfolio, r is the risk-free rate, and i measures the extent to which stock i covaries with the market.6 An asset that always moves with the market has beta = 1; an asset that is unrelated to the market has beta = 0; an asset that moves in the opposite direction to the market has a negative beta. The CAPM reveals that the excess return on an asset is simply proportional to its beta. The CAPM is an example of a model that had a significant effect on the world: stock market analysts now routinely calculate the betas of different stocks. A generalization of the CAPM, the consumption-based CAPM, suggests that the price of an asset should depend not upon how it varies relative to the market, but on how it varies relative to consumption. People hold assets as a means of saving, and people save in order to smooth their consumption. People will therefore be particularly keen to acquire assets that offer a high return in times of relatively low consumption. A stock will be particularly valuable, for example, if it tends to have a high return in recessions, when consumption is relatively low.
5
More than one actual portfolio of assets may have the characteristics of the market portfolio. Thus the CAPM need not imply that everybody literally holds the same portfolio of assets. The beta of a stock is easily calculated using econometrics: it is the coefficient from a regression of the return on the stock against the return on the market portfolio.
ADVANCED
TOPIC
Source: Steve Bell, The IF . . . Chronicles (London: Methuen, 1983) (originally published in The Guardian).
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ADDITIONAL
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Millions
Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics.
This baby-boom hypothesis suggested that the demand for new housing would fall during the 1990s. In the 1970s births fell substantially, reaching a low of 3.14 million in 1973. In the 1990s this small baby-bust generation reached adulthood. Some economists predicted that because of this slowdown in the growth of the adult population, real housing prices would fall during the 1990s.1
J. M. Poterba, Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach, Quarterly Journal of Economics 99 (1984): 72952; N. G. Mankiw and D. N. Weil, The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market, Regional Science and Urban Economics 19 (May 1989): 23558.
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Chapter Supplements
409
In fact, housing prices continued to rise in the late 1990sfollowing a pause early in the decade in the aftermath of the recession and the savings and loan crisis. Immigration and a rising stock market have been pointed to as reasons why the earlier prediction of declining house prices was wrong.2 The number of net immigrants during the 1990s was the highest of any decade during the twentieth century, while the number during the 1980s was the third highest. This influx of immigrants kept the home-buying population expanding faster than it otherwise would have. And rising stock-market wealth led homeowners to demand larger houses, putting further pressure on prices of homes.
For a discussion of the effect that immigration may have had on the housing market, see D. W. Berson, "Why Has Housing Been So StrongAnd Can It Continue?" in S. Hymans, ed., The Economic Outlook for 2000, Proceedings of the Forty-Seventh Annual Conference on the Economic Outlook, University of Michigan, November 1999: 35582.
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410