31 views

Uploaded by Sumit Sharma

probabilty

- Just a homework
- 8 - Risk based thinking.pdf
- Soal-Jawaban Distribusi
- ACE_R_Aus_guide-2011
- mltirule
- AEE-02-Personality Characteristics of Self Employed
- R assignment
- Data Fusion for Security Operations
- wesgardrules & multirules
- 1999. "Newborn shoulder width: a prospective study of 2222 consecutive measurements." British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology. Vol 106, pp. 589-593.
- OUTPUT.doc
- Pengolahan Data QSAR
- geometry unit 6 probability notes
- Silliker 4 System Presentation_Hardy
- Response Bias
- Ch1
- 1.01.05_VALIDATION
- Chapter 4 Part 1
- Homework 1 Solutions
- Cal166 Applications of Double Integrals to Probability

You are on page 1of 4

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Some Birthday and Lottery Problems3 Assume that there are n people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what is the mathematical formula for the probability that no one else in the room shares your birthday? Assume that there are 253 people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what is the probability that no one else in the room shares your birthday? What is the probability that at least one other person in the room shares your birthday? Assume that there are n people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what is the mathematical formula for the probability that no two people share the same birthday? Assume that there are n people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what value of n makes the probability that at least two people in the room share birthdays equals .5 (most closely)? Why is the number of people in question number 2 larger than the number of people in question 4? In the North Carolina Lottery Cash-5 Game, the same five numbers [4, 21, 23, 24, 39] were randomly selected on July 9, 2007, and July 11, 2007. Given that there are 39 numbers that can be selected without replacement, what is probability of at least one matching set of 5 numbers in a given set of 3 drawings?

The Medical Diagnosis Problem4 7. Assume that a test to detect a disease whose prevalence is (1/1000) has a false positive rate of 5% and a true positive rate of 100%. What is the probability that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease assuming that you know nothing about the persons symptoms? Bertrands Box Problem5 8. A box has three drawers; one contains two gold coins, one contains two silver coins, and one contains one gold coin and one silver coin. Assume that one drawer is selected randomly and that a randomly selected coin from that drawer turns out to be gold. What is the probability that the chosen drawer is one that contains two gold coins? Lets Make A Deal Problem6 9. Suppose that youre on a game show and youre given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, and goats are behind the other two doors. You pick a door and the host, who knows what behind each door, opens another door to show a goat. He says, Do you want to switch doors? Should you switch?

2 3

5 6

All of these questions are common ones, but I took the suggestion to use them from: Richard G. Seymann. November 1991. Comment. The American Statistician. 45(4):287-8. The answers are linked to my web page. Questions 1-5 are due to: William Feller. 1957. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications (Volume 1). New York: John Wiley. Question 6 is based on: Leonard A. Stefanski. May 2008. The North Carolina Lottery Coincidence. The American Statistician. 62(2):130-134. This question was presented to 60 students and staff at the Harvard Medical School. Over half of the participants responded 95% and only 11 gave the correct response. Hmm See: D. Kahneman, P. Slovik, and A. Tversky. 1982. Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. See: R. Weatherford. 1982. Philosophical Foundations of Probability Theory. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. The firestorm includes: vos Savant, Marilyn. September 9, 1990. Ask Marilyn. Parade. 15; December 2, 1990. Ask Marilyn. Parade. 25; February 17, 1991. Ask Marilyn. Parade. 15. Morgan, J.P., et al. November 1991. Lets Make a Deal: The Players Dilemma. The American Statistician. 45(4):284-7. Seymann, Richard G. November 1991. Comment. The American Statistician. 45(4):287-8. Morgan, J.P., et al. November 1991. Rejoinder. The American Statistician. 45(4):289. vos Savant, Marilyn. November 1991. Comment. The American Statistician. 45(4):347. Morgan, J.P., et al. November 1991. Rejoinder to vos Savant. The American Statistician. 45(4):347-348.

Probability Rules

Eco 105 Day 07 Conditional Probability.doc Page 5 of 7 Some Birthday and Lottery Problems

1. Assume that there are n people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what is the mathematical formula for the probability that no one else in the room shares your birthday?

2. Assume that there are 253 people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what is the probability that no one else in the room shares your birthday? What is the probability that at least one other person in the room shares your birthday? Since:

253

= .499523 .5 = 1 .499523 .5

253

Therefore:

3. Assume that there are n people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what is the mathematical formula for the probability that no two people share the same birthday?

364 363 362 365 (n 1) (365 1)(365 2)...(365 (n 1)) The formula is: p = ... = 365 365n1 365 365 365 4. Assume that there are n people in the room. Ignoring leap years, what value of n makes the probability that at least two people in the room share birthdays equals .5 (most closely)?

364 363 362 365 (23 1) Let n=23: 1 p = 1 ... = 1 .492703 = .507297 .5 365 365 365 365 5. Why is the number of people in question number 2 larger than the number of people in question 4? Question 2 asks about a specific date (your birthday) while question 4 asks about any of the possible 365 days. 6. In the North Carolina Lottery Cash-5 Game, the same five numbers [4, 21, 23, 24, 39] were randomly selected on July 9, 2007, and July 11, 2007. Given that there are 39 numbers that can be selected without replacement, what is probability of at least one matching set of 5 numbers in a given set of 3 drawings? p = 1

k

n 1

31

1 191,919

39! = 575,757 5!34! Note that this is the same basic concept as question 4. k =39 C5 =

Probability Rules

7. Assume that a test to detect a disease whose prevalence is (1/1000) has a false positive rate of 5% and a true positive rate of 100%. What is the probability that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease assuming that you know nothing about the persons symptoms? D = Has the disease T = Test result is positive Given: P(D) = .001 so P(Not D) = .999 P(T | Not D) = .05 P(T | D) = 1.00 P(D | T) = P(TD) / P(T) P(TD) = P(D)P(T | D) = .001 P(T) = P(TD) + P(TNot D) = P(TD) + P(Not D)P(T | Not D) = .001 + (.999)(.05) = .05095 P(D | T) = .001/.05095 = .019627 8. A box has three drawers; one contains two gold coins, one contains two silver coins, and one contains one gold coin and one silver coin. Assume that one drawer is selected randomly and that a randomly selected coin from that drawer turns out to be gold. What is the probability that the chosen drawer is one that contains two gold coins? Initial set-up 1. Assuming that the boxes are selected randomly: A = Box A (2 gold coins) B = Box B (1 gold & 1 silver coin) C = Box C (2 silver coins)

P(A) = P(Pick Box A) = 1/3 P(B) = P(Pick Box B) = 1/3 P(C) = P(Pick Box C) = 1/3

2. Since there are six coins, 3 of each type, and any one coin can be selected randomly: P(G) = P(Pick a Gold Coin) = P(Pick a Silver Coin) = P(Not G) = 3. Given (1) and (2), the marginal probabilities on the outside of the joint probability table must be: Pick a Coin Pick Box Gold Silver P(Pick Box) P(A)=1/3 Box A Box B P(B)=1/3 Box C P(C)=1/3 P(Pick Coin) P(G)=1/2 P(Not G)=1/2 1 4. Further, given the description of each box in (1) the joint probability table must be the following: Pick a Coin Silver P(Pick Box) Pick Box Gold Box A 1/3 0 P(A)=1/3 Box B 1/6 1/6 P(B)=1/3 Box C 0 1/3 P(C)=1/3 P(Pick Coin) P(G)=1/2 P(Not G)=1/2 1 P(A | G) = P(AG)/P(G) = (1/3)/(1/2) = 2/3

Probability Rules

9. Suppose that youre on a game show and youre given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car and behind the other two doors are goats. You pick a door and the host, who knows what behind each door, opens another door to show a goat. He says, Do you want to switch doors? Should you switch? Initial set-up assuming that youve pick Door #1 and before the host shows you whats behind another door 1. Assuming that the car can be behind any one of the three doors and that the host is equally likely to show you whats behind either Door #2 or Door #3, the marginal probabilities on the outside of the joint probability table must be the following: Host Shows You Door Car Behind Door Door #2 Door #3 P(Car Behind Door) Door #1 P(Car D1)=1/3 Door #2 P(Car D2)=1/3 Door #3 P(Car D3)=1/3 P(Host Shows Door) P(Shows D2)=1/2 P(Shows D2)=1/2 1 2. The car either is as likely to be behind the door that you picked as it is to not be behind the door that you picked, so one set of joint probabilities must be: Host Shows You Door Door #3 P(Car Behind Door) Car Behind Door Door #2 Door #1 1/6 1/6 P(Car D1)=1/3 Door #2 P(Car D2)=1/3 Door #3 P(Car D3)=1/3 P(Host Shows Door) P(Shows D2)=1/2 P(Shows D2)=1/2 1 3. If the host shows you whats behind door #2, then the car must not be behind it. If the host shows you whats behind door #3, then the car must not be behind it. So, the remaining set of joint probabilities must be: Host Shows You Door Car Behind Door Door #2 Door #3 P(Car Behind Door) 1/6 1/6 P(Car D1)=1/3 Door #1 Door #2 0 1/3 P(Car D2)=1/3 Door #3 1/3 0 P(Car D3)=1/3 P(Host Shows Door) P(Shows D2)=1/2 P(Shows D2)=1/2 1 Now, the host shows you whats behind a door (assume that its door #2) and asks, Do you want to switch doors (from door #1 to door #3)? P(Car Behind Door #1 | Host Shows Door #2) = P(Car D1 | Shows D2) = P(Car D1 Shows D2)/P(Shows D2) = (1/6)/(1/2) = 1/3 P(Car Behind Door #3 | Host Shows Door #2) = P(Car D3 | Shows D2) = P(Car D3 Shows D2)/P(Shows D2) = (1/3)/(1/2) = 2/3 Since P(Car Behind Door #1 | Host Shows Door #2) < P(Car Behind Door #3 | Host Shows Door #2), you should switch from door #1 to door #3.

- Just a homeworkUploaded byDiana Sanchez
- 8 - Risk based thinking.pdfUploaded bydanu
- Soal-Jawaban DistribusiUploaded byBobby Soepangkat
- ACE_R_Aus_guide-2011Uploaded byMihai Zamfir
- mltiruleUploaded byNanda Nabilah Ubay
- AEE-02-Personality Characteristics of Self EmployedUploaded byRicardo Ramos
- R assignmentUploaded byakriti710
- Data Fusion for Security OperationsUploaded byNeeraja Selvaraj
- wesgardrules & multirulesUploaded byElvan Dwi Widyadi
- 1999. "Newborn shoulder width: a prospective study of 2222 consecutive measurements." British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology. Vol 106, pp. 589-593.Uploaded byLucas Daniel Smith
- OUTPUT.docUploaded byIrfana Efendi
- Pengolahan Data QSARUploaded byEly Setiawan
- geometry unit 6 probability notesUploaded byapi-287816312
- Silliker 4 System Presentation_HardyUploaded bypdiaz79
- Response BiasUploaded byEuphrates Vaginitis
- Ch1Uploaded byPujiasih Yulianto
- 1.01.05_VALIDATIONUploaded byNanni Sumarni
- Chapter 4 Part 1Uploaded bySyarifuddin Samsuddin
- Homework 1 SolutionsUploaded byscribalin
- Cal166 Applications of Double Integrals to ProbabilityUploaded bymarchelo_chelo
- math module (10).pdfUploaded byvince casimero
- EVALUATION OF POLYMORPHONUCLEAR LEUCOCYTE ELASTASE LEVEL AS AN EARLY DIAGNOSTIC INDICATOR IN NEONATAL SEPSIS.Uploaded byIJAR Journal
- fisaUploaded byCristiana Chiriac
- 03 the Shapiro Wilk StatisticUploaded bysaras
- Probability CheatUploaded byIntelCommu
- Reliability and Validity of a Self-reported Measure of Medication Adherence in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in KoreaUploaded byRohan Sawant
- PR Applied Research Methods & Sampling Issues: Social and Market Research, Opinion Polls, PublicityUploaded byKaylona Matinus
- carnival gameUploaded byapi-448172603
- All of your probability problems A+Uploaded byTop Homework Help
- Probability Tree Diagrams (solutions, examples, videos, worksheets, games).pdfUploaded byV

- Nike Case StudyUploaded byjmatsanura1
- Nike Case StudyUploaded byjmatsanura1
- Debt and policy value caseUploaded byUche Mba
- Group Presentation mobilizing_climate_investment.pdfUploaded bySumit Sharma
- General Motors Asian AllincesUploaded byamitr9986
- Improving the Logistics of Moving Empty Containers VsUploaded bySumit Sharma
- Strategic AllianceUploaded bySumit Sharma
- Action Plan Freight Transport and LogisticUploaded bySumit Sharma
- Innovation Strategy S3Uploaded bySumit Sharma
- VodaphoneUploaded bySumit Sharma
- Incoterms Chart 073109Uploaded bySumit Sharma
- 2. LP ApplicationsUploaded bySumit Sharma
- chapter_1__kotler_assignUploaded byapi-3753113
- probalityUploaded bySumit Sharma
- MarineUploaded bySumit Sharma
- Lesson Transportation ModelsUploaded byAnoop Prakash
- TelecomIndia-TRAI2011Uploaded byHemachandran Chandran

- 13. Moving Load Anlaysis as per EN1991-2.pdfUploaded byRay Gong
- 1. Republic v. GrijaldoUploaded byGiee De Guzman
- Wright's Dental LabUploaded bymarvolta
- Historical Development of WTOUploaded byJigar Jayprakash Trivedi
- Zeke Faux Platinum Partners Criminal Investigation StoryUploaded byTeri Buhl
- 31019-Reading-PTEUploaded byKhaja Mohiddin
- Effects of Heat Stress on Some Blood Parameters in BroilersUploaded byRobert Paulis
- Florida HAM Sarnet MapUploaded byMilton Tinoco
- Massoli v. Regan Media, et al - Document No. 72Uploaded byJustia.com
- Income Taxation by Ballada 2013 Solution ManualUploaded byJovilson Manuel
- Narratives of a Trapping Life 1922Uploaded byRon Layton
- Project Report on Green MarketingUploaded bysuryakantshrotriya
- Violent Non State ActorsUploaded byp.haspra3760
- CRMEU2015 Thomas AnuptodateguideUploaded byManindra Tiwari
- Opportunity Makes the Thief - Pratical Theory for Crime PreventionUploaded byFernandoAlves
- Vertex Sap Partnership 20130930Uploaded byshailu1900
- World: Caustic Soda - Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020Uploaded byIndexBox Marketing
- Target Brand GuidelinesUploaded byBuddyLove
- Final Innocent EthicUploaded bymapilikitsmai
- don't tell: imposed silences in the color purple and the woman warriorUploaded bySanaa Mughal
- Two New Species of Horned Dinosaur NamedUploaded byMarie Vandendael
- Nolimit ProfileUploaded byRuwan Wijemanne
- dotherow resume laiUploaded byapi-353453033
- Port of ColomboUploaded byPn Ekanayaka
- Luces vs. DamoleUploaded byNikko Azordep
- gov.uscourts.cod.132446.109.0Uploaded byJ Doe
- Course Handout PPEUploaded byNishant Saxena
- 404 Study Guide Workbook - General English)Uploaded byVaid Navdeep Singh
- Travels in Alaska by Muir, John, 1838-1914Uploaded byGutenberg.org
- Factoring Polynomials Worksheet PDFUploaded byDanielle