Technical Papers

A Study of the Impact of Prognostic Errors on System Performance................................................................... 1

Carrasco, M.; Cassady, C. R.
Virtual Validation and Verification of a Product Specification............................................................................ 7
Chang, M.
Product Reliability Validation and Continuous Improvement Program at GE Energy ...................................... 13
Phillips, R. G.; Vittal, S.
A Behavior-based Process for Evaluating Availability Achievement Risk Using Stochastic
Activity Networks.................................................................................................................................... 21
Beaudet, S. T.; Courtney, T.; Sanders, W. H.
Accessible Formal Verification for Safety-Critical Hardware Design ............................................................... 29
Lach, J.; Bingham, S.; Elks, C.; Lenhart, T.; Nguyen, T.; Salaun, P.
Managing Risk by Extracting Management Information and Design Feedback from Field Failures................. 33
Loll, V.
Customer Feedback Before Market Release: A Case Study............................................................................... 39
Petkova, V. T.; Sander, P. C.; Lu, Y.
Human Reliability Issues in Medical CareA Customer Viewpoint ................................................................ 46
Brall, A.
Cognitive Modeling of Underground Miners Response to Accidents ................................................................ 51
Mohan, S.; Duarte, D.
Risk Assessment When Malevolent Actions Are Involved ................................................................................ 56
Bott, T. F.; Eisenhawer, S. W.
Emerging Probabilistic Technology and Its Application to Reliability Prediction and Risk Assessment .......... 63
Khalessi, M. R.; Lin, H. Z.; Kuper, R. J.; DAngelo, A.
Current Knowledge About Nanotechnology Safety ........................................................................................... 70
Datta, K.
Stochastic Petri Nets Modeling Using SPN@ .................................................................................................... 75
Volovoi, V.
Quantative Risk Assessment for Dependent Vulnerabilities .............................................................................. 82
Sahinoglu, M.
Prediction Capabilities of Vulnerability Discovery Models ............................................................................... 86
Alhazmi, O. H.; Malaiya, Y. K.
Resource Allocation Model for Software Module Testing ................................................................................. 92
Rajan, R.; Misra, R. B.
Application of Statistical Testing to Smart Device Code ................................................................................... 98
Kuball, S.; Gallardo, J.; May, J.
Optimal Testing Resource Allocation Models for Modular Software .............................................................. 104
Rajan, R.; Misra, R. B.
Better Software Reliability by Getting the Requirements Right....................................................................... 110
Bowles, J. B.
Actuarial Engineering Approaches for the Life Management of Power Plant Equipment ............................... 116
Phillips, R. G.; Mango, D.; Vittal, S.
Integrated Approach to Reliability-based Design of Future Electronics Systems ............................................ 122
Nasser, L.; Tryon, R.; Rudy, R.
xxi

Predicting Remaining Useful Life of an Individual Unit Using Proportional Hazards Model
and Logistic Regression Model.............................................................................................................. 127
Liao, H.; Zhao, W.; Guo, H.
Fatigue Analysis Framework for Fleet Management Using Bayesian Networks ............................................. 133
Rosqvist, T.; Koski, K.; Siljander, A.
Reliability Analysis of Mechatronic Systems Using Censored Data and Petri Nets:
Application on an Antilock Brake System (ABS) ................................................................................. 140
Mihalache, A.; Guerin, F.; Barreau, M.; Todoskoff, A.
Optimal Reliability and Price Choices for Products under Warranty ............................................................... 146
Liu, Z. J.; Huang, H. Z.; Murthy, D. N. P.
Availability Guarantees and Physical Assets Management:
Emphirical Evidence of the Impact of some Underlying Factors .......................................................... 152
Komonen, K.
Prediction of Potential Warranty Exposure and Life Distribution Based Upon Early Warranty Data ............. 159
Aldridge, D. S.
Prognostics for Electronic Equipment: An Economic Perspective................................................................... 165
Hecht, H.
Application of Proactive Quality Methods to Increase Business Value ........................................................... 169
Nassar, S. M.; Newton, M.
Some J-shaped Distributions: Sums, Products and Ratios................................................................................ 175
Zhou, M.; Yang, D. W.; Wang, Y.; Nadarajah, S.
Practical Methods for the Modeling of Repairable Systems with Time Trends and Repair Effects................. 182
Guo, H.; Zhao, W.; Mettas, A.
A New Approach to Modeling the System Reliability: Dynamic Reliability Block Diagrams ........................ 182
Distefano, S. Xing, L.
The Application of the Box-Tidwell Transformation in Reliability Modeling................................................. 196
Joyce, T.; Donovan, J.; Murphy, E.
Prior Specification for Multi-Failure Mode Weibull Reliability Models ......................................................... 201
Groen, F. G.; Droguett, E. L.
A Comparison of Accelerated Life Testing Designs within a Single Bayesian Inferential Framework........... 208
van Dorp, J. R.; Mazzuchi, T. A.; Garciduenas, J. E.
Modeling Low Probability/High Consequence Events: An Aviation Safety Risk Model ................................ 215
Luxhj, J. T.; Coit, D. W.
Uncertainty Assessment for Availability: Importance Measures...................................................................... 222
Miman, M.; Pohl, E. A.
Research in Software Reliability Engineering .................................................................................................. 228
Smidts, C.
Reliability IndexA Method to Predict Failure Rate and Monitor Maturity of Mobile Phones ..................... 234
Perera, U. D.
A Structured Methodology for Identifying Performance Metrics and Monitoring
Maintenance Effectiveness .................................................................................................................... 239
Amoedo, M. M.; Modarres, M.
Useful Metrics for Managing Failure Mode Corrective Action........................................................................ 247
Crow, L. H.

xxii

Dynamic Reliability Indices for Parallel, Series and k-out-of-n Multi-State Systems...................................... 253
Zaitseva, E.; Levashenko, V.
Bayesian Model for Early Reliability Prediction.............................................................................................. 260
Ion, R. A.; Kalishoek, H.; Karydas, D. M.; Philips, I. N.
An Approach to Reliability Growth Planning Based on Failure Mode Discovery and
Correction Using AMSAAS Projection Model...................................................................................... 266
Ellner, P. M.; Hall, J. B.
Using Markov Models to Compute Probability of Failed Dangerous When Repair Times Are Not
Exponentially Distributed ...................................................................................................................... 273
Bukowski, J. V.
A New Method of System Reliability Multi-Objective Optimization Using Genetic Algorithm..................... 278
Huang, H. Z.; Qu, J.; Zuo, M. J.
Enhancing ISP Network Reliability with Multi-Criteria Decision Framework
and Genetic Algorithm .......................................................................................................................... 284
Kim, D.
New Allocation Methods for Repairable Systems ............................................................................................ 290
Amari, S. V.; Hegde, V.
Fault Tolerance Adaptation Requirements vs. Quality-of-Service, Real-Time and Security
in Dynamic Distributed Systems............................................................................................................ 296
Tirtea, R.; Deconinck, G.; Belmans, R.
Specification and Allocation of Reliability and Availability Requirements..................................................... 304
Hagmark, P. E.; Virtanen, S.
HALT vs. ALT: When to Use Which Technique? ........................................................................................... 310
Silverman, M.
Accelerated Life Tests at Higher Usage Rates: A Case Study.......................................................................... 313
Yang, G.; Zaghati, Z.
Accelerated Life Testing for Speedier Product Development: Problems and Strategies.................................. 318
Jayatilleka, S.; Okogbaa, O. G.
Bayesian Estimation in Accelerated Life Testing: Application on Exponential-Arrhenius Model .................. 325
Voiculescu, S.; Guerin, F.; Charki, A.
Use of R&M Measures in Australian Defence Aerospace Perfromance-based Contracts................................ 331
Richardson, D.; Jacopino, A.
Methodology for Maintainability-based Risk Assessment ............................................................................... 337
Abdelmoez, W. M.; Goseva-Popstojanova, K.; Ammar, H. H.
Integrating Design for Performance and Reliability ......................................................................................... 343
Chen, Y.; Kang, R.; Sun, Y.
A Case for New Statistical Software Testing Models....................................................................................... 349
May, J.; Ponomarev, M.; Kuball, S.; Gallardo, J.
A New Approach to Evaluate the Worthiness of Repair .................................................................................. 354
Jger, P.; Trost, M.; Bertsche, B.
Creating a Sensible Derating System................................................................................................................ 362
McLinn, J. A.
Reliability Prediction for Complex Medical Systems....................................................................................... 368
Ion, R. A.; Sonnemans, P. J. M.; Wensing, T.
Design of a Reliability Conception with Implementation of Costs by a Semantic Network ............................ 374
Rzepka, B. Bertsche, B.
xxiii

Cooling Fan Reliability: Failure Criteria, Accelerated Life Testing, Modeling and Qualification................... 380
Tian, X.
Accelerated Reliability Growth Testing and Data Analysis Method................................................................ 385
Krasich, M.
Mixed Trunsored Model with Application to the Lifetime Estimation of Malcondition Items ........................ 392
Hirose, H.; Matsumoto, T.
Reliability Analysis of Aged Components........................................................................................................ 396
Soto, E.; Marcos, J.; Villagrasa, S.; Fernndez, S.
Incorporating Expert Knowledge When Estimating Parameters of the Proportional Hazards Model.............. 402
Zuashkiani, A.; Banjevic, D.; Jardine, A. K. S.
Risk Assessment of Real Time Digital Control Systems.................................................................................. 409
Hecht, M.; Buettner, D.; Hellrung, J.
Practical Evaluation of the REMM Process...................................................................................................... 416
Marshall, J.; Jones, J.
The Reliability of Correlated Two Unit Systems.............................................................................................. 422
Sarper, H.; Chacon, P. R.
A Fuzzy-Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for Fault Tree Analysis .............................................................. 428
Zonouz, S. A.; Miremadi, S. G.
A Tool for Automatically Translating Dynamic Fault Trees into Dynamic Bayesian Networks ..................... 434
Montani, S.; Portinale, L.; Bobbio, A.; Varesio, M.; Codetta-Raiteri, D.
BDD-based Analysis of Parametric Fault Trees ............................................................................................... 442
Codetta-Raiteri, D.
Terrorist Risk Evaluation Using A Posteriori Fault Trees ................................................................................ 450
Shooman, M. L.
A BDD & SEA -based Analysis of Generalized Phased-Mission Reliability .................................................. 456
Chen, G.; Huang, X.; Tang, X.
Cost Effective Condition-based Maintenance Using Markov Decision Processes........................................... 464
Amari, S. V.; McLaughlin, L.; Pham, H.
Modeling Imperfect Inspection and Maintenance in Defense Aviation Through Bayesian Analysis
of the Kijima Type I General Renewal Process ..................................................................................... 470
Jacopino, A.; Groen, F.; Mosleh, A.
Optimization of the Monitoring Device Performance for a Preventive Maintenance Policy ........................... 476
Barros, A.; Grall, A.; Brenguer, C.
Effects of a Reliability Program on Machine Tool Reliability ......................................................................... 481
Hagen, W. F.
Risk Analysis of Derailment Induced by Rail BreaksA Probabilistic Approach.......................................... 486
Zhao, J.; Chan, A. H. C.; Stirling, A. B.
Relating Risk and Reliability Predictions to Design and Development Choices.............................................. 492
Feather, M. S.; Cornford, S. L.
Reliability Assessment of Offshore Oil Multilateral Wells in Brazil ............................................................... 499
Droguett, E. L.; dos Santos, W. B.; Jacinto, C. M.; Sotomayor, G.; Garcia, P. A.
Modeling and Analysis of Causes and Consequences of Failures .................................................................... 506
Virtanen, S.; Hagmark, P. E.; Penttinen, J. P.
Eliciting Engineering Judgements in Human Reliability Assessment .............................................................. 512
Firmino, P. R. A.; Menzes, R. C. S.; Droguett, E. L.; Duarte, D. C. L.
xxiv

Microstructural-based Physics of Failure Models to Predict Fatigue Reliability ............................................. 520

Tryon, R. G.; Dey, A.; Krishnan, G.; Zhao, Y.
Failure Analysis of a Fault-Tolerant 2-Node Server System ............................................................................ 526
Jacob, D.; Simon, E. J.; Zhang, W.; Rose, D.
The Risks of Applying Qualitative Reliability Prediction Methods: A Case Study ......................................... 532
de Visser, I. M.; van den Bogaard, J. A.
Does SOFIA Require a Crew Escape System? ................................................................................................. 539
Datta, K.; Wiltsea, C. B.; Briceno, A.
Reliability and Crew Safety Assessment for a Solid Rocket Booster/J-2S Launcher....................................... 545
Fragola, J.; Baum, J. D.; Sauvageau, D.; Horowitz, S. J.
Reliability Analysis of Phased-Mission Systems: A Practical Approach ......................................................... 551
Alam, M.; Song, M.; Hester, S. L.; Seliga, T. A.
Safe Crew Launch by Design ........................................................................................................................... 559
Fragola, J. R.
Maintenance Management System Review in the Safety Management System
of a Major Hazard Plant......................................................................................................................... 563
Tucci, M.; Cappelli, I.; Tocchi, F.; Piazzini, C.
Accident Cause Analysis of Complex Systems Based on Safety Control Functions ....................................... 570
Kohda, T.; Takagi, Y.
Incorporating Process Demand into Models for Assessment of Safety System Performance .......................... 577
Bukowski, J. V.
A Novel Safety-Critical System Modeling Approach: Ternary Decision Diagram.......................................... 582
Yu, Y.; Johnson, B. W.
Safety Assessment for Safety-Critical Systems Including Physical Faults and Design Faults......................... 588
Yu, Y.; Johnson, B. W.
Integrated Modeling for Wireless Sensor Networks Reliability and Security .................................................. 594
Xing, L.; Michel, H. E.
Automotive Component Reliability: Should It Be Measured in Time or Mileage? ........................................ 601
Krivtsov, V.; Frankstein, M.
A Practical MTBF Estimate for PCB Design Considering Component and Non-component Failures ............ 604
Jin, T.; Wang, P.; Huang, Q.
A Bayesian Approach to Reliability Demonstration for Aerospace Systems ................................................... 611
Yates, S. W.; Mosleh, A.
An Integrated Approach for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Mars Relay Network .......................... 618
Meshkat, L.; Girerd, A.; Edwards, C. D.
Identifying the Major Contributions to Risk in Phased Missions ..................................................................... 624
Andrews, J.
Airframe Integrity Based on Bayesian Approach ............................................................................................. 630
Hurtado, J. L.; Hoffman, P.
Availability Optimization using Spares Modeling and the Six Sigma Process ................................................ 636
Owens, J.; Miller, S.; Deans, D.
From Requirements Development to VerificationDesigning Reliability into a Large Scale
Chemical Manufacturing System........................................................................................................... 641
Miller, S.; Owens, J.; Deans, D.

xxv

The Monte Carlo Method and Optimization of Spare Parts in Complex Realistic Scenarios ......................... 649
Dubi, A.
We Need to Change the Way RMA Does Business ........................................................................................ 657
Dzekevich, J. A.
Using RMA Monte Carlo Analysis as Part of the Systems Engineering Design Process................................. 661
Dzekevich, J. A.; Franqui, J.
PROTOCOL: An On-line Environment for Reducing Product Reliability Risk .............................................. 665
MacDiarmid, P. R.; Mahar, D. J.; Glover, J.; Shankle, W. E.
Reliability Related Concept Comparison and Derivation of a Risk Analysis in Early Design Stages ............. 672
Pickard, K.; Mller, P.; Bertsche, B.

xxvi