ECI 114 Name Midterm 1 (100 points) Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Fall 2011 Solutions

Show your work. Its not necessary to give a final numerical answer unless specifically asked, but you need to provide all the information necessary to compute the final answer. Please circle or otherwise highlight your answer. Turn in your crib sheet with your exam. GOOD LUCK!

1. For each of the following statements, circle the letter T if it is true, and F if it is false. (3 * 9 =27 pts) The correct answer has been bolded. T F a. S = { -2.0, -1.6, -1.2, -0.8, -0.4, 0.0, 0.4, 0.8, 1.2, 1.6, 2.0, } is an example of a continuous sample space. There are still only a countably infinite number of points in the sample space. F b. For any event A, (AS)(ACS) = S, where S represents the entire sample space. AS=A, ACS= AC, S=AAC by definition of complement. c. Pr[A|Bc] = 1 Pr[A|B] . For it to be true, the complement should be on the A: Pr[Ac|B] = 1 Pr[A|B]. If two events form a partition, then they are always independent. Because they are M.E., and M.E. events are dependent knowing one occurs affects the probability of the other occurring (you know it cannot occur, since they are M.E.).

TF

d.

T F e. The mean and median are identical for symmetric distributions. T F f. If Pr[A] + Pr[B] + Pr[C] = 1, then the set of events {A, B, C} forms a partition. The converse of this is true. But suppose, e.g., B=C, and Pr[A] = Pr[B] = Pr[C] = 1/3. Then the sum = 1, but {A, B, C} is not a partition since B and C are not M.E. (nor are {A, B, C} C.E.). You could also devise an example in which B and C overlap but are not equal.

n n 1 T F g. 7 = n 7 6
LHS:

7 n! n! n (n 1)! n! = = , RHS: 7!(n 7)! 6!(n 7)! 6!(n 1 6)! 6!(n 7)!

T F h For a certain sample of 15 observations and a mean of 10, it is known that

i yi2 = 1584. The variance of this sample is 5.6. yi 2 N y 2 1584 15(10) 2 84 S = = = =6 N 1 14 14

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T F

i. If A and B form a partition and B and C are collectively exhaustive, then AC=A. A B=S and AB= ; B C=S. Its easy to find C A , so A C=A.
A B

Put a different way: If A C A, then there must be a point in A that is not in C. But if its in A, then its not in B, since A and B are M.E. (since they are a partition). If its not in C and not in B, then B and C cant be C.E., which is a contradiction.

2. At the coffee house in Memorial Union, people who bought hot drinks were observed last Friday. Assume they bought either coffee or tea, but not both. It was found that 65% of all customers bought coffee. 30% of the coffee drinkers put sugar in their drinks, whereas 60% of the tea drinkers put sugar in theirs. A customer is selected at random. (3 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 +5 + 5 = 38 pts) a. Define all relevant events, and express all numbers given in the problem statement as probabilities of events.

C: The customer bought coffee Pr[C]=0.65 T: The customer bought tea Pr[T]=1-0.65=0.35 S: The customer put sugar in the beverage Pr[S|C]=0.3, Pr[S|T]=0.6 C (S : The customer did not put sugar in)

b. What is the probability that the customer put sugar in the beverage?
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We know events C and T are a partition. Using the total probability formula, we get:
Pr[ S ] = Pr[ S | C ] Pr[C ] + Pr[ S | T ] Pr[T ] = 0.3 * 0.65 + 0.6 * (1 0.65) = 0.405

c. If the customer used sugar, what is the probability that s/he bought tea? Using Bayes Theorem, Pr[T | S ] = Pr[ S | T ] Pr[T ] Pr[ S | T ] Pr[T ] 0.6 * (1 0.65) = = = 0.519 Pr[ S ] Pr[ S | C ] Pr[C ] + Pr[ S | T ] Pr[T ] 0.405

d. Are the events buying coffee and putting sugar in the beverage dependent?

Explain why or why not, with words and with an equation. Knowing someone is buying coffee may decrease the probability of putting sugar in the beverage because the probability of a coffee drinker putting sugar in it (30%) is much smaller than that of a tea drinker (60%). So our intuition is that the two events are dependent. To conduct a mathematical test for independence, we need to compare Pr[S|C] and Pr[S]. From parts a) and b), we can easily see that Pr[S|C]=0.3 < Pr[S]=0.405. Therefore the two events are dependent. (We could also note that 0.519 = Pr[T|S] < Pr[T] = 0.35).

It is also observed that 25% of all the customers put milk in their beverage. If the customer bought coffee and put sugar in it, the probability of putting milk in as well is 90%. e. What is the probability that the customer bought coffee and put both sugar and milk in it? First define the event: M: putting milk in the beverage Using the Chain Rule:

Pr[M]=0.25 Pr[M|C, S]=0.9

Pr[C S M ] = Pr[C ] Pr[ S | C ] Pr[ M | C , S ] = 0.65 * 0.3 * 0.9 = 0.1755

f. What is the probability that the customer bought coffee and put sugar in it, given that she put milk? From the conditional probability formula, we get:
Pr[C S ] = Pr[C ] Pr[ S | C ] = 0.65 * 0.3 = 0.195

Then use Bayes Theorem again:

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Pr[C S | M ] =

Pr[C S ] Pr[ M | C S ] 0.195 * 0.9 = = 0.702 Pr[ M ] 0.25

Drawing base Venn diagrams that reflect all relevant events (for the whole problem, not just the events mentioned below) in their proper relation to each other, show on the base Venn diagram and express in set notation the events that: g. A customer bought coffee with milk, but not sugar in it.

C M S C
The shaded area.
C T

S
M

h. A customer bought neither coffee with milk, nor tea with sugar. (C M ) C (T S ) C = ((C M ) (T S )) C = (C MC) (T SC). The total area except the shaded area.
C T

3. 5 players are selected from a 20-student class to play a game. We know that 8 students in the class are sophomores. (3+3+4+5 = 15 pts) a. How many different ways are there to select 5 players from the class, assuming the 5 players have identical roles in the game? (Final answer required). Use the combinations rule: 20 ( 520 ) = 15!*!5! = 15,504 b. How many ways in part (a) contain exactly 4 sophomores? Use the multiple combinations rule:

( )( ) = 70 *12 = 840
8 4 12 1

c. What is the probability that at least 3 players selected are sophomores? Use the multiple combinations rule again:

( )( ) + ( )( ) + ( )( ) = 56 * 66 + 70 *12 + 56 *1 = 0.296 15504 ( )

8 3 12 2 8 4 12 1 20 5 8 5 12 0

d. If we know among the final selected 5 players that 2 are freshmen, 2 are sophomores, and 1 is a junior, how many different ways can the 5 players be arranged in a row if only their class level will be distinguished? Use the partitions rule:
5! = 30 . 2!*2!*1!

Alternatively, you can think of it as a series of combinations (because only their class level will be distinguished, so we use combination instead of permutation): there are

( ) ways to
5 3

assign the 3 sophomores; then there are 3 positions left for the 2 freshmen, so there are ways to assign them; at last, there is 1 position left, so student. Therefore, the total number of ways is:

( )
3 2

( ) way for assigning the junior

1 1 3 2 1 1

( ) * ( ) * ( ) =10*3*1=30.
5 3

4. During a recent sale at a music store, the number of CDs customers purchased was distributed as follows. (8+2+5+5=20 pts) Number of CDs X
0 1 2 3

Probability
0.1 0.3 0.4 p

a.

What is the expected number of CDs purchased, and its variance (first, obtain the value of p)? (Final numerical answers required). (8 pts)

p( x ) = 1 , so p = 1 - 0.1 - 0.3 - 0.4 = 0.2.

i i

E(X) = xi * p ( xi ) = 0 * 0.1 + 1 * 0.3 + 2 * 0.4 + 3 * 0.2 = 1.7 .

i =1

Var(X) = E[X2]-(E[X])2 =

x
i =1

2 i

* p ( xi ) 1.7 2 = (0 2 * 0.1 + 12 * 0.3 + 2 2 * 0.4 + 3 2 * 0.2) 1.7 2 = 0.81 .

b. What is the probability that a randomly-selected customer purchased fewer than 2 CDs? (2

pts)

p(xi=0)+p(xi=1) = 0.1+0.3 = 0.4.

c.

Completely specify the CDF for X. (5 pts) CDF for X Number of CDs (x) x<0 0 x <1 1 x <2 2 x <3 x3

F(x) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0

d. Let I = 12 X - 6 (revenue minus cost) be the total net income of the store, in dollars, from a

randomly-selected customers purchase. Find E[I] and s.d.(I). (5 pts) E[I] = E[12X - 6] = 12 E[X] - 6 = 12*1.7 - 6 = 14.4.
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Var[I] = Var[12X - 6]= 122*Var[X]=144*0.81=116.64. s.d.[I]= Var[ I ] = 144 * 0.81 = 12 * 0.9 = 10.8 .