Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 5, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 5, 2013

Highlights
US Factory Orders increased by 1.8 percent in the month of Dec. Spanish Unemployment Change rose to 132,000 in the last month. UK's Construction PMI remained unchanged at 48.7-mark in January. BRC Retail Sales Monitor increased by 1.9 percent in January. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of renewed concerns on the Euro regions debt crisis. Additionally, weak economic data from US and Euro region also led to downside pressure in the global market sentiments. US Factory Orders rose less than forecasted by 1.8 percent in December as against a previous decline of 0.3 percent in November.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5987.3 19751.2 13880.08 1495.7 16539.0 1953.2 59575.7 11260.4 96.17 1675.30 3170.00 8287.25 #N/A 101.36 Prev. day -0.2 -0.2 -0.9 -1.2 -4.5 -0.2 -1.3 0.6 -1.6 0.4 -0.8 -0.3 #N/A -0.2

as on February 4, 2013 WoW -1.4 -1.8 0.0 -0.5 -7.6 0.7 -0.8 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 3.1 3.0 #N/A -0.5 MoM 0.0 0.3 3.7 2.0 -4.5 -2.2 -2.5 5.7 3.2 0.8 5.6 5.6 #N/A -0.2 YoY 12.4 12.2 7.9 11.2 0.6 0.4 -8.7 27.5 -1.7 -3.6 -6.0 -3.6 #N/A -2.7

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.6 percent yesterday on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, rise in Spanish unemployment change data along with less than forecasted increase in the US factory orders also supported an upside in the currency. Apart from that, US equities also declined sharply around 1 percent which acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 79.64 and closed at 79.57 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated in the later part of the trade on account of rise in Spanish unemployment change data which added downside pressure on the global and domestic market sentiments along with strength in the DX. However, in the initial part of the trade the currency had appreciated and touched a three month high of 52.91 on the back of government looking to raise about $2 billion through a stake sale in NTPC Ltd and expecting foreign fund inflows between $300 million and $500 million for the transaction. The currency touched an intra-day low of 53.34 and closed at 53.29 on Monday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 3,607.40 crores th ($676.63 million) as on 4 February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.25,666.50 crores ($4,736.0 million) till 4th February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, countrys Services PMI data is expected to come on a negative today which will add further downside pressure on the currency.

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.57 53.29 53.48 53.47 Prev. day 0.6 -0.2 0.09 0.08

as on February 4, 2013 WoW -0.4 1.4 -0.87 -0.88 MoM -1.0 3.5 -3.35 -3.37 YoY 0.7 -8.8 9.23 9.22

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for February 5, 2013 Support 53.15/52.90 Resistance 53.60/53.75

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 5, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.9 percent yesterday as a result of renewed concerns for the regions debt crisis coupled with strength in the DX. Further, Spanish Unemployment Change rose to 132,000 in January as against a decline of 59,100 in the month of December which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of Sentix Investor Confidence was at -3.9-mark in January from earlier decline of 7-level in December. European Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged at -0.2 percent in the month of December. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3503 and closed at 1.3513 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on account of renewed concerns for the regions debt crisis, weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Further, retail sales data is expected to come on a negative note which will also exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the Euro will be prevented as Spanish and Italian Services PMI forecasted to come on a positive note. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 72.25/72.05 72.70/72.95 valid for February 5, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3513 72.03 72.51 72.5 Prev. day -0.9 0.8 -0.45 -0.43

as on February 4, 2013 WoW 0.4 0.8 -0.01 -0.03 MoM 3.0 0.3 0.77 0.78 12.43 12.44 YoY 2.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.576 83.949 84.08 Prev. day 0.4 0.59 -0.49

as on February 4, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained unchanged at 48.7-mark in the month of January. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor increased by 1.9 percent in January from earlier rise of 0.3 percent in December. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5772 and closed at 1.576 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be restricted as a result of Services PMI data expected to come on a favorable note. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 5, 2013 Support 83.50/83.10 Resistance 84.40/84.80 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW 0.4 -0.81 -0.83

MoM -2.2 -4.95 -5.10

YoY -0.3 9.24 8.43

84.09

-0.46

-0.83

-5.08

8.45

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| February 5, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of unfavorable monetary base economic data from the country. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 92.18 and closed at 92.36 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 5, 2013 Support 57.25/56.80 Resistance 58.0/58.40 Last 92.36 0.5781 57.69 57.69 Prev day -0.4 0.96 -0.65 -0.66 as on February 4, 2013 WoW 1.7 -3.00 -3.15 -3.07 MoM 5.2 -7.24 -8.02 -8.01 YoY 20.6 -8.86 -10.20 -10.15

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on February 5, 2013

Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI Services PMI Retail Sales m/m ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Country UK UK Euro Euro UK Euro US Time (IST) 5:31am 5 7
th th

Actual 1.9% -

Forecast -0.2% 44.7 45.9 49.8 -0.5% 55.2

Previous 0.3% 1.3% 44.3 45.6 48.9 0.1% 56.1

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High

1:45pm 2:15pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 8:30pm

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