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Predicting corrosion rates and future corrosion severity from in-line inspection data
Desjardins, Guy. Materials Performance 40.8 (Aug 2001): 60.

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Headnote Recent advancements in the accuracy and resolution of in-line inspection tools have made it possible to estimate corrosion rates and future corrosion severity on pipelineswith a reasonable degree of confidence. This allows pipelineoperatord to identify specific areas where corrosion is most active and predict what the probable future severity of that corrosion will be. Pipelinecorrosion is most prevalent when the failure of coatings, inhibitors, or catholic protection occurs in a corrosive environment. It is important to realize that these factors do not affect me pipelineequally at all locations, and corrosion does not grow at the same rate throughout a pipeline. If an operator can identify which corrosion defects are active or growing, they predictions of future corrosion severity for each and every defect on the pipelinecan be made. In-line inspection (ILI) technology has provided an effective means of determining the corrosion rates on a pipeline. ILItechnology has made significant advances in identifying, locating, and assessing pipelinedefects. Through the correlation and analyses of corrosion anomalies from IU data sets, corrosion rates and predictions of corrosion severity can be estimated within a measurable level of confidence. Dynamic models of a pipelinecan then be developed based on the probable future state of corrosion anomalies. Determining Corrosion Rates from ILIData In theory, determining corrosion rates from multiple IU data sets should be relatively simple. II-Is provide the location and size of corrosion defects, and corrosion rates can then be calculated from the change in defect sizes between inspections. In practice, however, several difficulties need to be Overcome. The first problem arises when attempting to match defects accurately from one inspection to the next. Oodometer slippage, orientation differences, changes in corrosion size and shape, and different inspection tools with varying accuracy and sensitivity collectively make the matching process quite complicated. On the other hand, computer technology and the development of pattern-recognition software have made matching large numbers of defects a manageable task. This software can identify and correlate corrosion patterns between ILI data sets, accounting for differences in orientation and defect characteristics (Figure 1).

Matching corrosion defects can now be primarily automated with manual checks to ensure reliability and accuracy. This enables hundreds of thousands of corrosion defects to be matched and analyzed accurately and efficiently.

The defect matches provide the growth history of individual corrosion anomalies, from which the corrosion rates can be calculated in terms of depth, length, and width. Corrosion severity for each defect and the probability of pipelinefailure caused by corrosion can also be predicted for any given time. A second problem that needs to be overcome when forecasting corrosion growth involves accounting for the error associated with IU tools. If ILItools were perfectly accurate, determining corrosion rates would be quite straightforward. Because they are not perfect, however, a probabilistic approach to the problem is necessary. Corrosion rates and predictions must be determined within some confidence bounds, which themselves need to be determined. Figure 2 compares an ILIrun with field-measurement results. Data points that lie off of the 1:1 line indicate measurement error in either the ILIor field tool. The accuracy of any calculation based on ILIdata is limited by the error associated with the data. Accuracy can be stated as a confidence interval, with the typical confidence bounds of high-resolution ILIdata being +/10% nominal wall thickness (NWT) 80% of the time. The level of confidence must be accounted for in all of the corrosion predictions based on the measured data.

Predicting Corrosion Severity and Probability of Failure With multiple inspections, the corrosion rates for individual defects on a pipelineare calculated from the observed changes in defect size from one ILIto the next. Based on these calculated corrosion rates, future corrosion depths, lengths, and widths can be predicted. The associated measurement error requires that the confidence bounds of the corrosion rate and predictions be accurately calculated; this is done using a Bayesian method.

Figure 3 illustrates the probability functions for depth measurements of a corrosion defect from two separate ILIruns, along with the resulting probability function of the predicted depth and corrosion rate. The probability distributions of depth and length allow one to determine the probability distribution for pipelinefailure pressure. Resultant failure predictions (predictions that a pipelinewill leak or rupture at some future date) can now be calculated, but they are also affected by the uncertainty in a defect's depth measurement and predicted failure pressure. Figure 4 shows that, from a statistical perspective, the probability of rupture is the area under the failure pressure probability function that falls to the left of the operating pressure. Because active corrosion increases defect depth and length and decreases failure pressure, the failure pressure probability function will move left with time. Integrating the area under each failure pressure probability function that falls to the left of the operating pressure yields the increasing probability of eventual failure (Figure 5).

Decision Modeling Determining where corrosion is active on a pipelineand at what rate it is growing allows operators to, in effect, perform virtual inspections for any given point in the future. Figure 6 outlines a typical decision model that can be developed using this virtual inspection concept. The probability of failure curve for a pipelinecan be adjusted to reflect potential repairs on that pipelineand the resultant reduction in failure probability. This range of probability failure curves can then be used to compare the net present cost of any number of pipelinerepairs to the net present cost of reinspecting the pipeline. It can be adjusted based on the operatordetermined maximum allowable probability of failure. In the example in Figure 6, the optimal reinspection point is at 7 years-based on minimizing the total cost while maintaining the minimum comfort level. Conclusions Assessing corrosion rates on a pipelinefrom IU data is both possible and viable. With powerful pattern-matching software and the statistical methodology to assess accurately the confidence bounds associated with corrosion data, pipelineoperators can develop a dynamic model of their pipelinethat incorporates current and probable future states. Pipelineoperators can then more effectively prioritize pipelinerepairs, optimize future inspection schedules, and correlate active corrosion with environmental variables to better understand potential root causes of pipelinecorrosion.

References Bibliography References Bhatia, A., T. Morrison, N.S. Mangat, "Estimation of Measurement Errors." In Proceedings of the International PipelineConference Book no. G1075A, 1998. New York, NY: ASME International, 1998. Bhatia, A., T. Morrison, G. Desjardins, "Analysis of Corrosion Growth Using a HighResolution In-Line In References spection Tool." In Conference Proceedings of NACE Northern Area Eastern Conference, held October 24-27, 1999. Ottawa, Ontario, Paper 38. 1. Jaska, C.E., J.A. Beavers, B.A. Harle, "Effects of Stress Corrosion Cracking on Integrity and Remaining Life of Natural Gas Pipelines." CORROSION/96, paper no. 255. Houston, TX: NACE, 1996. References Morrison, T., R. Worthingham. "Reliability of High Pressure Line Pipe Under External Corrosion," Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, vol. 5, Part B, Book no. H0746B. New York, NY: ASME International, 1992. Work in Progress by NACE Task Group T10E-6, "InLine Nondestructive Testing of Pipelines ." Houston, TX: NACE.

References Worthingham, R., T. Morrison, G. Desjardins, "Case History of Integrity Management on a Corroded Pipeline." In Proceedings of NACE Northern Area Western Conference, held March 8-11, 1999. Calgary, Alberta, Session 3A. AuthorAffiliation GuY DESJARDINS, Morrison Scientific, Inc. AuthorAffiliation GUY DESJARDINS is the President of Morrison Scientific, Inc., Suite 815,706- 7 Ave, SW, Calgary, Alberta, UP 0Z1. With a geophysics degree and more than 23 years' experience in the oil and gas industry, he has spent the past 8 years specializing in the analyses of pipeline inspection data and corrosion measurement. He is a member of APEGGA and NACE and is an active member of numerous NACE committees related to ILls and pipelinecorrosion.

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Ttulo Autor Ttulo de publicacin Tomo Nmero Pginas Nmero de pginas Ao de publicacin Fecha de publicacin Ao Editorial Lugar de publicacin Pas de publicacin Materia de la revista ISSN CODEN Tipo de fuente Idioma de la publicacin Tipo de documento ID del documentos de ProQuest URL del documento Copyright ltima actualizacin Predicting corrosion rates and future corrosion severity from in-line inspection data Desjardins, Guy Materials Performance 40 8 60 4 2001 Aug 2001 2001 National Association of Corrosion Engineers Houston United States Engineering--Engineering Mechanics And Materials, Metallurgy 00941492 MTPFBI Trade Journals English PERIODICAL 222972175 http://search.proquest.com/docview/222972175?accountid=43790 Copyright National Association of Corrosion Engineers Aug 2001 2010-06-09

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