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February 6, 2012
Relaxo Footwear
Quarter impacted but outlook remains positive
Y/E March (` cr) Total Income EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta Net debt (` cr) 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
(7.9) (21.7) (148)bp (41.0)
`750 `897
12 Months
3QFY2013 3QFY2012 % chg (yoy) 2QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 223 19 8.4 6 204 18 8.6 6 9.2 7.2 (16)bp 0.7 242 24 9.9 10
Relaxo Footwear (Relaxo) reported lower-than-expected numbers for 3QFY2013. The revenue for the quarter stood at `223cr, 9.2% higher yoy, but substantially lower than our expectation of `250cr. This was due to the new initiative of product specific distribution not getting popular among dealers; hence the impact on sales. The EBITDA margin witnessed marginal contraction of 16bp yoy to 8.4% during the quarter which was lower than our expectation of 10.3%. Subsequently, the profit for the quarter stood flat yoy at `6cr, declined by 41.0% on a sequential basis, and was 49.9% lower than our estimate of `12cr. Capacity expansion and brand revamp to drive volume: The company incurred a capex of `60cr for the construction of a PU (Polyurethane) footwear plant which commenced in January, 2013. This development has increased the capacity by ~30,000 pairs per day totalling to 4.0 lakh pairs per day. In addition, the company plans to open 25-30 retail stores each year. Moreover, the company has successfully built a strong brand image with leading celebrities endorsing its brands; ie Salman Khan endorsing Hawaii, Katrina Kaif tied up for Flite and Akshay Kumar roped in to endorse the Sparx brand. We expect capacity expansion and aggressive marketing to complement each other and drive volume in the future. Outlook and valuation: We expect Relaxo to post a revenue CAGR of 15.5% over FY2012-14E to `1,148cr with an operating margin of 11.6% in FY2014E. The PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.8% to `67cr for the same period. At the current market price, Relaxo is trading at 13.4x FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `897, based on a target PE of 16x for FY2014E.
Footwear 900 0.5 144 917 / 285 2,364 5 19,640 5,959 RLXO.BO RLXF IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 75.0 16.1 1.4 7.6
3m 4.4
1yr 10.9
3yr 23.4
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 554 35.9 38 160.2 13.8 31.4 23.9 8.2 41.0 21.8 1.9 13.7
FY2011 686 23.9 27 (28.8) 9.6 22.4 33.5 6.7 22.0 14.3 1.5 15.9
FY2012 860 25.4 40 48.5 10.5 33.3 22.5 5.2 26.0 19.5 1.2 11.6
FY2013E 989 15.0 50 26.1 10.7 41.9 17.9 4.1 25.6 20.1 1.1 10.0
FY2014E 1,148 16.1 67 33.7 11.6 56.1 13.4 3.1 26.5 23.0 0.9 7.8
Tejashwini Kumari
30940000 ext: 6856 tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com
3QFY13 223 101 45.4 36 15.9 68 30.3 204 19 8.4 5 6 1 9 4.0 3 31.8 6 2.7 6 10.1
3QFY12 204 110 53.7 26 12.5 51 25.2 187 18 8.6 5 6 2 9 4.2 3 29.6 6 3.0 6 10.0
% chg (yoy) 9.2 (7.7) 38.9 31.3 9.4 7.2 (16)bp (1.6) 8.1 (30.4) 4.0 11.8 0.7
2QFY13 242 115 47.3 37 15.4 66 27.4 218 24 9.9 4 6 1 15 6.2 5 31.5 10 4.3 6
% chg (qoq) (7.9) (11.8) (4.5) 1.7 (6.4) (21.7) (148)bp 16.9 2.4 (8.6) (40.8) (40.2) (41.0)
9MFY13 714 336 47.0 110 15.4 195 27.3 641 73 10.2 12 19 4 46 6.4 15 31.7 31 4.4 6
9MFY12 618 335 54.1 77 12.4 150 24.3 562 56 9.1 14 18 4 29 4.7 8 26.8 21 3.4 6 35.2
% chg 15.4 0.3 43.1 29.6 14.0 29.6 111bp (12.5) 6.1 (3.4) 59.5 88.5 48.8
0.7
17.2
(41.0)
52.4
48.8
February 6, 2012
25 20 15 10 5 0
154
Revenue (LHS)
EBITDA (LHS)
Investment rationale
Aggressive capacity expansion
The company incurred a capex of `60cr for the construction of a PU (Polyurethane) footwear plant which commenced in January 18, 2013. This development has increased the capacity by ~30,000 pairs per day to 4.0 lakh pairs per day. In addition, the company is also planning to construct a warehouse, with a capex of `25cr, which is expected to be completed by FY2014E.
further improve with the new ads and celebrity endorsements helping in increasing brand visibility. The company is also planning to launch new products in the high margin segment.
28.9
25.8
35.0
35.5
30.0
February 6, 2012
Financial performance
Assumptions
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2013E Volume Growth (%) Realisation Growth (%) Change in raw material prices (%) Ethyl Vinyl Acetate (EVA) Rubber
Source: Angel Research
We expect the companys revenue to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% over FY2012-14E, from `860cr in FY2012 to `1,148cr in FY2014E, mainly on the back of growth triggers, which include 1) capacity expansion plans, 2) store expansion, 3) improved sales mix, 4) brand revamping and 5) continuous product development. With the cooling off of raw material prices, we expect the net raw material cost as a percentage of sales to decline from 53.4% in FY2012 to 47.2% in FY2014E. Simultaneously, we expect employee cost and other expenses to increase on account of expansion and advertisement spending respectively. We expect a 118bp expansion in the operating margin to 11.6% in FY2014E, mainly on account of fall in raw material prices, stabilizing ad spends and improvement in value mix (with Sparx and Flite contributing ~60% of sales). The companys profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.8% over FY2012-14E, from `40cr in FY2012 to `67cr in FY2014E.
(` cr)
(`cr)
600 400
80 60 40
(%)
(%)
306
407
554
686
860
106
31
41
76
66
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
90
20
134
200
989
1,148
2 0
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
Revenue (LHS)
EBITDA (LHS)
February 6, 2012
FY2014E
(`)
400 200 0
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Price (`)
4x
8x
12x
16x
Risks
Rise in raw material prices and depreciating rupee
The prices of key raw materials EVA and rubber had reached their peak in the last financial year to ~`149/kg and ~`243/kg respectively, which impacted the operating margin. However, the prices of both the raw materials have started declining, with the current price for rubber at ~170/kg and EVA at ~`117/kg. Any rise in the prices can put margins under pressure. Also, Relaxo imports its entire EVA requirement, so any further depreciation in the rupee can pose a risk to the operating margin and thereby impact the profitability of the company.
February 6, 2012
Jan-13
USD/INR
Company background
Relaxo is a key player in the retail footwear industry, with a strong foothold in the slippers market and a strong distribution channel of 700 distributors and more than 46,000 retailers. The company presently has 158 company-owned outlets across India, with a concentrated presence in Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It has nine manufacturing plants, seven in Bahadurgarh (Haryana) and one each in Bhiwadi (Rajasthan) and Haridwar (Uttaranchal). Currently, the company sells its products under three major brands Hawaii, Flite and Sparx.
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Relaxo Footwear No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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