The Daily Forecaster

2nd April 2009

General Outlook

After a mostly directionless day we are left in pretty much the same position as I described yesterday. There are a few more clues but still the conflict between wanting one more Dollar rally and the imminence of what should soon be a solid decline keeping us hanging in a void. Firstly, USDJPY remained locked into the range of the single sharp drop seen at the start of Asian trading yesterday. There are no points awarded for guessing that a break of the 98.21-99.46 range has a high chance of producing a decent move. If there is any stronger argument it is on the downside but while Im getting more & more nervous of what I feel is the impending drop I will only look for the 97.10-26 area and from there the final rally should develop. The Dollar drifted lower to sideways against EURUSD and USDCHF but lost out more heavily in GBPUSD. I almost feel that the lack of any push higher yesterday should imply that we have seen the Dollar highs and thus the downtrend can resume. However, yesterdays weakness was not all that impressive and does still generate blocks in my mind that maybe well see one small attempt higher but not too far beyond what weve seen maybe 1.3070-92 EURUSD and 1.1552-80 USDCHF The situation in the Europeans needs some TLC so best be cautious than reckless but also remember as we go forward there is an increasing risk of the Dollars downtrend resuming. Overall I have targets around 1.43 EURUSD and 1.0740 USDCHF Elsewhere the JPY crosses look mixed and need to break out of their ranges. AUSUSD may well have problems getting through 0.7030-54 initially at least while USDCAD looks more and more as if its going to retest the 1.2189-00 lows Good luck. Please note that The Daily Forecaster will take a break around Easter from 10th April to 14th April.

Ian Copsey

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The Daily Forecaster

Summary
USDJPY
I feel there is weight enough to send this back to 97.10-26 (max 96.77)

Resistance
101.06-30 100.66 99.96 99.46-56 99.05 98.73

Support
98.21 97.90 97.68 97.10-26 96.77 95.98

Price moved sideways yesterday but is edging lower this morning and I feel that it is just a matter of time before the 98.21-38 lows are broken and confirm a deeper correction to the rally from 95.98. Take care as there may be one last attempt back towards 98.73-99.05. Thus only look to sell at break of the 98.20 level and once seen we should see losses extend to 97.68 and later to 97.10-26. I think this will hold but keep in mind lower support at 96.50-77. Only breach of this support extends the decline back to the 95.98 low.

1 EURUSD

Go to detailed analysis
The soft decline yesterday looks like causing a break higher today

Resistance
1.3538-72 1.3484 1.3402-30 1.3384 1.3318-44 1.3286

Support
1.3247 1.3220 1.3166-90 1.3145 1.3112 1.3070-92

No break of 1.3160-65 failed to see the expected losses and this has allowed price to recover to 1.3286. Indeed, if this high breaks it will look more and more like the uptrend is resuming. Thus breach would imply follow-through to 1.3318 at least and I suspect 1.3342-44 where a correction is possible. While this remains above 1.3280 I will expect followthrough above 1.3344 up to 1.3402-30. Take care here again. Only breach will provide the next step higher to 1.348498 at least and more likely 1.3538-72.

1 USDCHF

Go to detailed analysis
Lack of follow-through higher yesterday leaves the downside vulnerable

Resistance
1.1631-52 1.1579 1.1530-52 1.1505 1.1473 1.1442

Support
1.1380 1.1340-56 1.1313 1.1240 1.1222 1.1157-68

The cap just 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and decline is threatening to allow the larger downtrend to resume. Still there are some support areas to break to provide final confirmation. A move below 1.1420-25 would extend the downside to 1.1380 again and while it may cause a correction I feel that we shall eventually see follow-through below the 1.1340-56 pivot support and corrective low. Once seen expect additional declines to 1.1222-40 which should hold for a correction. Next supports are at the 1.1157-67 lows...

2 GBPUSD

Go to detailed analysis
It's a bit difficult to catch this mid-rally but while 1.4430-50 supports we should see gains to 1.4

Resistance
1.4731-77 1.4681 1.4620-40 1.4572 1.4541 1.4502-25

Support
1.4450 1.4430 1.4386-00 1.4353 1.4327 1.4234-52

This barely saw any downside at all yesterday and the depth of gains seen thus far certainly looks as if we have seen the extent of the downside. I see support at 1.4430-50 and while this holds the upward momentum should take price higher through 1.4501-25 (may stall briefly) and on towards 1.4572 and 1.4620-40 where I expect a cap to develop for a correction lower. Only above 1.4640 would put pressure on the 1.4777 high.

2 AUDUSD

Go to detailed analysis
I feel the 0.7036-54 area should stall the rally - only above extends to 0.7092 and possibly highe

Resistance
0.7268 0.7206 0.7177 0.7130 0.7092 0.7036-54

Support
0.6995-00 0.6974 0.6950 0.6505-25 0.6855 0.6815-20

The move above 0.6910-25 has generated a solid rally which has approached the 0.7030-50 resistance. Take care here as I feel there is some risk of a pullback. Thus only look for follow-through if the 0.7054 corrective high is broken and if seen this would extend the rally to the 0.7092 high. Again, this should be treated with caution and only a move through here and 0.7110 would maintain the upward momentum for 0.7177-06 and possibly all the way to the 0.7267 high.

1 USDCAD

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I feel we are seeing a drop towards the 1.2453-82 area en route the 1.2313-40 pivot support

Resistance
1.2743 1.2413 1.2670-75 1.2635 1.2605 1.2580

Support
1.2540 1.2501 1.2482 1.2553-61 1.2389 1.2313-40

The 1.2630 area held for a while but breach is providing a more bearish structure. There is minor support at 1.2540 that has potential to generate a correction but while this remains below 1.2605 I feel it will not be long before we see a break below 1.2540 for a retest of 1.2501 at least. Take care her as this could cause a correciotn. Breach would extend the decline to 1.2453-82 which should produce a correction.

1 EURJPY

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We could still be in a sideways consolidation before the next leg higher

Resistance
134.51 133.91-10 133.31 132.60 131.90 131.33-50

Support
130.70 129.86-11 129.16 128.52 127.72 126.43

Price remained in quite a tight range yesterday and this morning's recovery is somewhat encouraging for a bullish structure but I'm not sure we're going to break higher today. There is resistance in the 131.33-50 area and this needs to break for price to retest the 131.90 high. Even this could hold in a flat correction. Thus if bullish we're going to have to wait for a break above 131.90 and only if seen would I look for the underlying rally to extend towards 133.31 at least and probably 133.91-10.

1 GBPJPY

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While 142.75 supports a break above 143.50-72 would see 144.00 and 144.40 at least

Resistance
147.47 146.10 145.41 145.07 144.40 143.50-72

Support
142.75 142.21 141.73 141.30 140.68 140.20-30

It was actually GBPUSD which dragged price higher here and this has broken above the 142.80 peaks this morning. The break does seem to suggest follow-through. Thus while the 142.75 area supports I suepct we'll see a move back above the 143.50-72 resistance to 144.00 at least and I suspect 144.40. Also note the 145.07 high but I am rather doubtful we'll see it this high or break. Only above 145.07 woudl see price extend to 145.41 and 146.10.

Go to detailed analysis

The Daily Forecaster USDJPY

Price 98.53
2nd April 2009 Resistance 101.06-30 100.66 99.96 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 99.46-56 99.05 98.73 Support 98.21 97.90 97.68 97.10-26 96.77 95.98
I feel there is weight enough to send this back to 97.10-26 (max 96.77)

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore it is likely that any losses are corrective only. Note support levels that could stall any decline. Consider bullish set up patterns at key support levels or should price threaten to break above any key resistance levels that would indicate a possible resumption of the move higher. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break. Consider buy set ups at: 99.56-67 or 97.10-26 Consider sell set ups at: 98.20

Daily Bullish 2 Med Term Bullish

Given the tight range trading yesterday we are pretty much in the same position described yesterday but the weakness being seen this morning is shifting the risk to the downside. A break below the 98.21 low should provide better buying levels and I feel this will be in the 97.10-26 area and at most 96.50-77. Only an earlier break back above 98.73 & 99.05 would extend the upward momentum above the 99.46-63 area and onto 100.54-76 and probably the 101.06 resistance. From here expect a correction. Resistance also at 101.30. 2nd April: We are coming towards the major cycle high and thus I see strength over the next week but above the 99.67-95 area to go on to reach the 102.46-103.20 target. However, do note a short target at 101.30. Anything above here risks a sharp reversal. Price moved sideways yesterday but is edging lower this morning and I feel that it is just a matter of time before the 98.21-38 lows are broken and confirm a deeper correction to the rally from 95.98. Take care as there may be one last attempt back towards 98.73-99.05. Thus only look to sell at

Daily Bearish break of the 98.20 level and once seen we should see losses extend to 97.68 and later to 97.10-26. I think this will hold but keep in mind lower 1 Med term Bearish
support at 96.50-77. Only breach of this support extends the decline back to the 95.98 low. 2nd April: I remain looking for a major high and feel the 102-103 area is the likely top. Only an earlier break below 95.98 and 95.51 would send price much lower to retest the 93.54 low and probably beyond.

EURUSD

Price

1.3266

2nd April 2009 Resistance 1.3538-72 1.3484 1.3402-30 1.3384 1.3318-44 1.3286 Support 1.3247 1.3220 1.3166-90 1.3145 1.3112 1.3070-92

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

The soft decline yesterday looks like causing a break higher today

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is bullish. Caution is advised but there is a mild preference for gains within a consolidation. However, be aware of the risk of choppy price action that could hit stops. Therefore take note of both daily & MT S&R and confirm any bullish trade with bullish set up patterns. It would also be advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support bullish trades. Consider buy set ups at: 1.3344 Consider sell set ups at: 1.3165

Daily Bullish 1 Med Term Bullish

No break of 1.3160-65 failed to see the expected losses and this has allowed price to recover to 1.3286. Indeed, if this high breaks it will look more and more like the uptrend is resuming. Thus breach would imply follow-through to 1.3318 at least and I suspect 1.3342-44 where a correction is possible. While this remains above 1.3280 I will expect follow-through above 1.3344 up to 1.3402-30. Take care here again. Only breach will provide the next step higher to 1.3484-98 at least and more likely 1.3538-72. 2nd April: There seems to be a significant risk that we have seen the low or any dip will be contained by the 1.3070-62 area. Thus any break above 1.3286 and 1.3344 will begin to generate steady gains through 1.3538-72 at least. Above there will be the 1.3737 high. I was a bit disappointed by the lack of decline yesterday but with no break of 1.3160-65 the signs were there I do see one minor risk of a dip but if this is seen it should be shallow and stall around the 1.3070-92 area. To see this we need the 1.3286 high to hold and for a drop below 1.3220-47 and most important 1.3166. If seen then it will open the risk for a push back to the 1.3112 low and just below at 1.3070-92 which should support. Only breach resurrects the 1.2930-45 target. 1st April: While yesterday's high holds there still remains room for losses to 1.2990, 1.2930-45 and possibly what appears to be a favored target now at 1.2864. Only below 1.2800 would suggest deeper losses

Daily Bearish 3 Med term Bearish

The Daily Forecaster USDCHF

Price 1.1428
2nd April 2009 Resistance 1.1631-52 1.1579 1.1530-52 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 1.1505 1.1473 1.1442 Support 1.1380 1.1340-56 1.1313 1.1240 1.1222 1.1157-68
Lack of follow-through higher yesterday leaves the downside vulnerable

Bias

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore the main risk is lower. Ensure that key resistances levels hold. Note key support levels that would suggest continuation of the bearish move. Consider confirming this with a bearish set up pattern in price or an indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal higher should key MT resistance break and is supported by a bullish set up in price or an indicator. Consider buy set ups at: 1.1510 or at 1.1340-50 Consider sell set ups at: 1.1335

Daily Bullish 2 Med Term Bullish

Yesterday's gains stalled 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and since then there have been steady losses which do seem to put any bullish stance in the background. If there is any chance of another push higher then the 1.1380 lows must remain intact. Then a break back above 1.1442-73 will provide the basis for a break above yesterday's 1.1505 high and extend the rally to 1.1530-52 at least and probably 1.1579. Next major resistance is at 1.1631-52 & 1.1674. 2nd April: We may well have seen the top already at 1.1548 and only a move back above 1.1530-48 would maintain the potential for the recovery reaching 1.1579 and 1.1652-74. However, it does seem to be growing more unlikely. The cap just 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and decline is threatening to allow the larger downtrend to resume. Still there are some support areas to break to provide final confirmation. A move below 1.1420-25 would extend the downside to 1.1380 again and while it may cause a correction

Daily Bearish I feel that we shall eventually see follow-through below the 1.1340-56 pivot support and corrective low. Once seen expect additional declines to 2 Med term Bearish
1.1222-40 which should hold for a correction. Next supports are at the 1.1157-67 lows... 1st April: If we reach the 1.1652-74 area I feel this will provide a cap and therefore look for a reversal pattern. Any earlier break below 1.1340 would threaten direct losses that should stall in the 1.1157-1.1222 area for a pullback and then lower again.

GBPUSD

Price

1.4491

2nd April 2009 Resistance 1.4731-77 1.4681 1.4620-40 1.4572 1.4541 1.4502-25 Support 1.4450 1.4430 1.4386-00 1.4353 1.4327 1.4234-52

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

It's a bit difficult to catch this mid-rally but while 1.4430-50 supports we should see gains to 1.4620-40

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore it is likely that any gains are corrective only. Note resistance levels that could stall any rally. Consider bearish set up patterns at key resistance levels or should price threaten to break below any key support levels that would indicate a possible resumption of the move lower. Only consider a possible larger reversal higher should key MT resistance break. Consider buy set ups at: 1.4430-50 Consider sell set ups at: 1.4620-40

Daily Bullish 1 Med Term Bullish

This barely saw any downside at all yesterday and the depth of gains seen thus far certainly looks as if we have seen the extent of the downside. I see support at 1.4430-50 and while this holds the upward momentum should take price higher through 1.4501-25 (may stall briefly) and on towards 1.4572 and 1.4620-40 where I expect a cap to develop for a correction lower. Only above 1.4640 would put pressure on the 1.4777 high.

2nd April: The breaks back above 1.4390 & 1.4440 are providing a stronger picture that should bring a retest of the 1.4777 high again. On the way there is resistance at 1.4620-40 which should cause a correction. I was rather disappointed we didn't see further losses and for now the bearish stance is best left aside until there is some evidence of stronger weakness. There is resistance at 1.4502-25 and this could cause a correction and if so then I doubt we'll get much below 1.4430 if at all. Thus only look for stronger losses again if we see a break below 1.4420 and if seen would highlight the risk of a push back to 1.4353 and the 1.4234-52 area.

Daily Bearish 2 Med term Bearish

2nd April: The downside scenario appears to be losing its grip and thus only a break back below 1.4320 and 1.4252 would begin to rise the chance of a push back towards the 1.4110 low

The Daily Forecaster AUDUSD

Price 0.7024
2nd April 2009 Resistance 0.7268 0.7206 0.7177 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 0.7130 0.7092 0.7036-54 Support 0.6995-00 0.6974 0.6950 0.6505-25 0.6855 0.6815-20
I feel the 0.7036-54 area should stall the rally - only above extends to 0.7092 and possibly higher

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs confirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is very important that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks. Consider buy set ups at: 0.7060 Consider sell set ups at: 0.7033-54

Daily Bullish 3 Med Term Bullish

The move above 0.6910-25 has generated a solid rally which has approached the 0.7030-50 resistance. Take care here as I feel there is some risk of a pullback. Thus only look for follow-through if the 0.7054 corrective high is broken and if seen this would extend the rally to the 0.7092 high. Again, this should be treated with caution and only a move through here and 0.7110 would maintain the upward momentum for 0.7177-06 and possibly all the way to the 0.7267 high. 1st April: We are stuck between two alternatives and require a swift resumption of the upside above 0.6910-25 and 0.6968 to maintain the upward momentum for 0.7030-50 and potentially the 0.7092 high again. Above sees resistance at 0.7268-0.7308. If there is any hope for some downward movement then the 0.7030-54 area can provide a correction at least. There is pivot support at 0.6995-00 and this needs to break to generate a stronger correction lower. If seen then look for the downside to extend further towards support at 0.6950 at least.

Daily Bearish Take care here as a push back higher is possible. Below 0.6945 maintains the downward momentum for 0.6905-25 and at most the 0.6855 corrective 1 Med term Bearish
low. 31st March: Higher support targets have already been achieved and with a bullish divergence we have to be cautious about further losses. Thus only back below 0.6865 would suggest potential for 0.6734 and 0.6630

USDCAD

Price

1.2547

2nd April 2009 Resistance 1.2743 1.2413 1.2670-75 1.2635 1.2605 1.2580 Support 1.2540 1.2501 1.2482 1.2553-61 1.2389 1.2313-40

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

I feel we are seeing a drop towards the 1.2453-82 area en route the 1.2313-40 pivot support

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore it may be better to sit out of the market or trade breaks when supported However, be aware of the risk of choppy price action that could hit stops. Therefore take note of both daily & MT S&R and confirm any bearish trade with bearish set up patterns. It would also be advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support bearish trades. Consider buy set ups at: 1.2453-61 (with care) Consider sell set ups at: 1.2580

Daily Bullish 2 Med Term Bullish

This morning's fall below 1.2572 appears to have broken the bullish structure so we should be expecting a stronger decline. We are currently testing the 1.2501-40 support and this broad area is the last chance that a bullish structure cann develop. We shall need to see the 1.2580 resistance boken to avoid further falls and only if seen will it mean additional gains back towards 1.2605. However, at this point I feel it should cap. Thus only breach will allow a stronger recovery back to 1.2670-75 at least and possibly the 1.2704-13 highs. 2nd April: I was too bullish it seems with this morning's losses appearing to be too much to retain a bullish stance. Only a break back above 1.2605 would bring relief for 1.2670-75 and the 1.2713 high en route 1.2783-1.2806.. The 1.2630 area held for a while but breach is providing a more bearish structure. There is minor support at 1.2540 that has potential to generate a correction but while this remains below 1.2605 I feel it will not be long before we see a break below 1.2540 for a retest of 1.2501 at least. Take care her as this could cause a correciotn. Breach would extend the decline to 1.2453-82 which should produce a correction.

Daily Bearish 3 Med term Bearish

1st April: The bounce from 1.2501 is more bullish and thus only a break back below 1.2575 followed by 1.2487-00 would raise the risk of sharper losses back into the 1.1189-1.2340 range.

The Daily Forecaster EURJPY

Price 131.05
2nd April 2009 Resistance 134.51 133.91-10 133.31 Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY 132.60 131.90 131.33-50 Support 130.70 129.86-11 129.16 128.52 127.72 126.43
We could still be in a sideways consolidation before the next leg higher

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs confirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is very important that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks. Consider buy set ups at: 131.60 (with care) Consider sell set ups at: 131.33-50 (with care) or at 128.50

Daily Bullish 3 Med Term Bullish

Price remained in quite a tight range yesterday and this morning's recovery is somewhat encouraging for a bullish structure but I'm not sure we're going to break higher today. There is resistance in the 131.33-50 area and this needs to break for price to retest the 131.90 high. Even this could hold in a flat correction. Thus if bullish we're going to have to wait for a break above 131.90 and only if seen would I look for the underlying rally to extend towards 133.31 at least and probably 133.91-10. 1st April: The recovery has been firm and to avoid a sideways consolidation we're going to need a break above the 131.90 high today. If seen I can see room for a follow-through into the 133.91-134.51 area but probably then a correction. No break lower yesterday but we may just still be within a sideways consolidation. If the 131.33-50 area caps then look for losses to move back 130.70 and probably the 129.86-11 area. At this point I feel it will hold. Any breach would actually look more bearish and if seen would extend the

Daily Bearish decline to 129.16-23 at least and at most 128.52. At this point I feel it will hold. Only break of 128.50 would generate stronger losses. 1 Med term Bearish
1st April: We've seen a solid recovery and I still feel there should be one more high here. Thus only below 127.04 would begin to pressure the 126.43 low and potentially 125.07 below which stronger losses will beckon

GBPJPY

Price

143.08

2nd April 2009 Resistance 147.47 146.10 145.41 145.07 144.40 143.50-72 Support 142.75 142.21 141.73 141.30 140.68 140.20-30

Go to: Summary USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD EURJPY GBPJPY

Bias

While 142.75 supports a break above 143.50-72 would see 144.00 and 144.40 at least

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs confirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is very important that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks. 142.75 Consider sell set ups at: 145.00 (with care) Consider buy set ups at: It was actually GBPUSD which dragged price higher here and this has broken above the 142.80 peaks this morning. The break does seem to suggest follow-through. Thus while the 142.75 area supports I suepct we'll see a move back above the 143.50-72 resistance to 144.00 at least and I suspect

Daily Bullish 144.40. Also note the 145.07 high but I am rather doubtful we'll see it this high or break. Only above 145.07 woudl see price extend to 145.41 and 3 Med Term Bullish
146.10. 2nd April: The consolidation area seems to be breaking and thus a test of 144.00 and the 145.07 high is possible. If broken the higher target lies at 146.10 which should cap. I have been a bit surprised with the break higher this morning and thus I'll be cautious about the downside. There is pivot support at 142.75 now and this must break to generate any meaningful losses. If seen then it would appear that we have seen a false break higher and thus the next move should be lower for 141.30 but take care as this should generate a correction at least. next support is then seen at 140.20-30.

Daily Bearish 1 Med term Bearish

2nd April: I'm concentrating on the 144.00-40 resistance and also 145.07 to see what reactin we see. A break below 141.30 and then 140.20 is needed to start talking about a larger decline.