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May 2008
By Oluwasegun Popoola
1
Table of Contents
Abstract…………….………………………………………………………….……3
Section 1 Introduction……………………………………………………………...4
2
Abstract
The predictive power of the yield spread has been widely studied and documented in the United States
and a number of countries outside the United States. However, little or no studies have been conducted in
Africa.
This paper studies the predictive power of the yield spread and ascertains its usefulness for predicting real
economic growth in Africa. It buttresses the predictive ability of the yield spread particularly in South
Africa where the results suggest that the yield spread as a predictive indicator of future economic
The paper further identifies the appropriate model for forecasting the yield spread in Morocco, Nigeria
3
SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
The use of financial variables to predict real economic activity only took a serious turn in the Nineties
when policymakers began to find alternative but more reliable ways of predicting economic conditions
having being previously been limited by the faulty macroeconomic models which are often characterized
by the lack of timely and accurate data and the complexity of the macroeconomic forecasting models.
The growing demand for such variables by policy makers fueled widening research into these variables
and their usefulness in predicting future economic conditions. One of such financial variables is the yield
spread, which is simply the difference between the long-term and short-term government instruments’
rates1.
Several studies have been conducted on the efficacy of the yield spread, which is often referred to as an
indicator of the future direction of the economy. Generally, a positive yield spread (i.e. higher long-term
interest rates than short-term rates) is associated with future economic expansion, while a negative yield
spread (i.e. lower long-term interest rates than short-term rates) is associated with future economic
contraction.
1
The widely used measure of the yield spread is the difference between the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month
Treasury bill.
4
Harvey (1988) and several authors documented that there is information about future consumption and
Bonser-Neal and Morley (1997) discovered that the predictive power of the yield spread is strongest in
Canada, Germany and the United States having taken the study of the efficacy of the yield spread further
Perhaps, the closest semblance of a study of the yield spread and its predictive power in Africa was
conducted by Khomo and Aziakpono (2007) who both compared the efficacy of the yield curve and other
economic indicators as predictors of future economic activities (i.e. economic recessions and expansions)
in South Africa.
The seeming lack of studies on the yield spread in Africa is largely due to the nature of the African
monetary and financial markets which was largely seen as illiquid and sometimes not transparent because
In addition, the institutional development frameworks for financial and monetary regulators and players
which were established about five decades ago in Sub-Saharan and Northern Africa (i.e. Morocco,
Nigeria and South Africa) only began to take strong roots in the last two decades. As a result, the use of
financial variables to forecast real economic activity was either absent or somewhat limited in most of the
countries studied.
This study is therefore is an attempt to ascertain the predictive power or otherwise of the yield spread in
three countries in Sub-Saharan and Northern Africa (i.e. Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa). The choice
of the countries was based on two criteria. First, only countries in the top five bracket of largest countries
5
in Africa in terms of real GDP were considered, Second, quarterly data on interest rates and (or) real
economic activity had to be available for at least the last ten years.
Highlight the importance2 of the yield spread and determine the forecasting power3 if any, of the
Appraise the theoretical underpinnings of the predictive capacity of the yield spread in Sub-
Consider the continued relevance of this financial variable in the light of constantly changing
The study covers the period 1963Q1 to 2006Q4. Section 2 contains a broad review of the existing and
relevant literature related to the study. A theoretical framework is also provided. Section 3 provides a
specification of the model, analysis of results obtained and the drawn generalizations from the findings.
2
Knowledge of the predictive ability of the yield spread enables businesses and policy makers to make better
forecasts of real economic activity in the light of unprecedented economic growth being recorded in Sub-Saharan
and Northern Africa in the last one decade.
3
As mentioned earlier, the yield spread is assumed to be a predictor of future economic conditions such as economic
expansion or contraction.
6
SECTION 2
Extensive studies on the predictive power of the yield spread and its predictive capacity began in the mid-
sixties when Kessel (1965) noted the existence of relationship between the yield curve and future real
economic activity. Ever since, researchers and analysts have continued to investigate the existence of a
In the late eighties and nineties, several studies including Harvey (1989) found that the yield spread
predicts real GDP growth in the United States. Stock and Watson (1989) empirically tested and
established a predictive relationship4 in macroeconomics that when the difference in yields between long
and short term interest rates in the United States is low or negative, future GDP growth tends to be slow
or negative. This view is also corroborated in Bernanke and Blinder (1992). Haubrich and Dombrosky
(1996) found that the yield spread is an excellent predictor of economic growth. Furthermore, Estrella and
Mishkin (1996), Dueker (1997) and Dotsey (1998) compare the yield curve with a few other variables5 as
a leading indicator of United States recessions and find generally supportive statistical evidence.
4
Recent findings however, indicate the relative weakness of the predictive power of yield curves and spreads to
forecast economic growth and future interest rates in the United States. For instance, the yield spread failed to
predict the 1990-1991 recession. Popoola (2007)
5
Alternative indicators are stock prices, stock returns, interest rates, dividend yields and exchange rates.
7
The early and mid-nineties also saw the emergence of a couple of studies on the predictive power of the
yield spread outside the United States. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) found that the yield spread
predicts real GDP growth in the United States and a number of European countries. Hu (1993), Caporale
(1994), Plosser and Rouwenhorst (1994) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995) all attempted to ascertain the
predictive power of the yield spread within and outside the United States. To the author’s best knowledge,
the most extensive multi-country analysis of the yield spread and its predictive capacity known to date
While extensive studies on the yield curve exist for the United States and a number of industrialized
countries, very little advancements have been made to study the yield curve and its predictive power in
other countries. Study on emerging economies let alone African countries are almost non-existent. This
Two works that specifically dwell on the yield spread and its predictive capacity relating to sub-Saharan
Africa were written by Mehl (2006) whose work was on the use of the slope of the yield curve to predict
domestic inflation and growth in South Africa among other emerging countries; while Khomo and
Aziakpono (2007) compared the efficacy of the yield curve and other economic indicators as predictors of
Contribution
Interestingly, very few of the previous studies explored the possibility of appraising the theoretical
underpinnings of the predictive capacity of the yield spread in spite of the extensive literature available on
6
Bonser-Neal and Morley (1997) studied eleven OECD countries in their paper.
8
the subject matter. The only study known to the author was by Hamilton and Kim (2002) which attempted
to theoretically show evidence to buttress why the yield spread helps in forecasting the business cycle.
In addition, there has been no extensive work on the predictive capacity of the yield spread in African
To the author’s best knowledge, this study is the first attempt to investigate and study the predictive
power of the yield spread in Morocco and Nigeria and provide an appropriate model for forecasting the
The predictive capacity of the yield spread is embodied in an understanding of the relationship existing
between the yield curve, its movements and how it impacts economic conditions.7 A yield curve is the
graphical distribution of the yields of treasury securities with different maturities (i.e. 3-month, 6-month,
2, 3, 5, 10 and 20-year). The yield spread as described earlier is the difference between the long-term and
short-term government instruments’ rates. It is widely believed that the difference between the short and
long-term rates indicates the steepness or the slope of the yield curve.
A positive yield spread (i.e. long term rates are higher than short term rates; positively sloped yield curve)
is associated with a potential future increase in real economic activity while negative yield spread (i.e.
short term rates are higher than long term rates; negatively sloped or inverted yield curve) is associated
with a potential future decrease in real economic activity. Resultantly, the size of the yield spread
7
Guiding thoughts from Bonser-Neal and Morley (1997)
9
The following reasons have been adduced for the empirical relationship between the yield spread and its
predictive capacity:
The yield spread reflects credit market conditions and in addition, reflects the changes in
Studies have consistently shown that all the theories listed above may have some merit. Estrella and
Hardovelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995), for example, show that proxies for current monetary
policy do help forecast future real GDP growth; however, the inclusion of these proxies does not
eliminate the significance of the yield curve. These results suggest the yield curve reflects more than just
10
SECTION 3
RESULTS
The author studied three countries in Africa as previously documented in section one of the paper.
Real GDP is observed quarterly in South Africa and thus the sample is quarterly from 1963 through the
end of 2005 (i.e. 1963.01 to 2006.04). The author also obtained the 10-year government bond yield and 3-
Quarterly real GDP for Morocco and Nigeria was unavailable. As a result, the author was unable to test
the predictive power of the yield spread. The author, however, obtained the quarterly 15-year Treasury
bond yield8 and 3-month Treasury bill rate for Morocco and deposit rate9 and 3-month Treasury bill rate
All the data sets used for this study was sourced from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data and
8
15-year Treasury bond yield used in the absence of 10-year Treasury bond yield in Morocco.
9
The deposit rate was used as Nigeria discontinued the issuance of long term bonds only to have them re-introduced
about five years ago.
11
Figure 3.1 displays the time series plot of the annualized rate of growth of real GDP in South Africa over
the next four quarters which suggests that annualized growth rate in real GDP has been relatively unstable
over time.
Fig 3.1: Annualized Real GDP Growth Rates, 1963.01 – 2006.04 (South Africa)
5
-1
-2
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Fig 3.2: Time series of T-bill rate and Government Bond Yield, 1963.01 – 2006.04 (South Africa)
24
20
16
12
0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
12
Fig 3.3: The Yield Spread and Real GDP growth rate, 1963.01 – 2006.04 (South Africa)
8
-2
-4
-6
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Fig 3.4: The Yield Spread, Real GDP growth rate and Periods of negative Real GDP growth rate, 1963.01 –
2006.04 (South Africa)
8
-2
-4
-6
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Figure 3.2 and 3.3 displays the time series of the T-bill rate and government bond yield rate and the yield
spread and real GDP respectively. Figure 3.4 displays the time series of the yield spread and real GDP.
13
The author observed that the yield spread declined into negative territory just before the real GDP turns
negative indicating the presence of predictive power in South Africa’s yield spread.
and Hardouvelis (1991), Estrella and Mishkin (1997) and Bonser-Neal and Morley (1997).
Model Specification
Where ΔY is the change in real economic activity and defined as the annualized growth rate in real GDP.
The subscript k denotes the forecasting horizon in quarters and the spread is defined as the difference
Results
The results reported in Table 3.1 indicates the yield spread explains roughly between 5% and 7% of the
variation in the following period’s real GDP (i.e. t + k). In addition, the results seem to support the
findings, in Khomo and Aziakpono (2007) that the yield spread as a predictive indicator of future
economic activities performs better at longer horizons compared to other leading indicators in South
Africa.
14
Table 3.1: Explanatory Power of the Yield Spread for Real GDP
The author applied a number of models including trend, seasonality and ARMA regression models to
choose the best model to forecast yield spread from January to December 2006.
15
Trend Regression Model
Yt = o+ 1Timet + t
2
Yt = o+ 1Timet + 2Timet + t
18
Exponential Trend Model
1Timet
Yt = oe + t
-
2959146.6
R-squared 08949 Mean dependent var 1.268275
-
3013945.6
Adjusted R-squared 38744 S.D. dependent var 2.593718
S.E. of regression 4502.882 Akaike info criterion 19.69788
Sum squared resid 1.09E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.77022
Log likelihood -549.5407 Durbin-Watson stat 0.255009
20
Table 3.13: Comparing AIC and SIC (Nigeria)
Having considered the three models (i.e. linear, quadratic and exponential), we adopt the linear model for
South Africa and the quadratic model for Morocco and Nigeria10.
A cursory look at the regression statistics produced by the linear trend model for South Africa and
R2 indicates that the trend is only responsible for about 5.3% of the variation in the yield
spread.
The linear trend regression residual plot in figure 3.5 reveals that the fitted trend remains relatively stable
10
The model with the lowest SIC and AIC for each country is selected in this instance.
11
Except otherwise stated, test of significance is at the 95% confidence interval.
21
R2 indicates that the trend is only responsible for about 32% of the variation in the yield
spread.
The fitted trend remains stable throughout as can be seen from the quadratic trend regression residual plot
in figure 3.7. As a result, it is difficult to notice any obvious seasonality or cyclical patterns.
R2 indicates that the trend is only responsible for about 36% of the variation in the yield
spread.
The fitted trend remains stable as can be seen from the quadratic trend regression residual plot in figure
The residual correlograms and its graphs (i.e. figure 3.6, 3.7 and 3.8) reveal the residual sample
autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function has spikes in the 1st, 2nd, 9th and 11th lags for South
Africa; 1st and 2nd lags for Morocco and 1st, 2nd, 9th and 11th lags for Nigeria. Additionally, it can been
seen that the Ljung-Box statistic rejects the white noise null hypothesis even at very small, non-seasonal
displacements which means there is still some useful information contained in the residuals which can be
extracted.
22
Fig 3.5: Linear Trend Residual Plot
8 4
4 0
0 -4
-4 -8
-8
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1.0
1
0.5
0.0
0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
24
Fig 3.9: Quadratic Trend Residual Plot
8 0
4 -4
0 -8
-4
-8
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
In order to test for seasonality, the author generated four dummy variables for the quarters in a year and
performed a regression using both the linear trend and seasonal dummies in the case of South Africa and
quadratic trend and seasonal dummies in the case of Morocco and Nigeria.
The results of the regression on seasonal dummies for South Afirca, Moroco and Nigeria are shown in
Tables 3.14, 3.15 and 3.16 respectively. The seasonal dummy model is
4
Yt = i Dit + t
i=1
26
Table 3.15: Seasonal Dummy Variable Model (Morocco)
27
The dummies account for less than 1 percent of the variation in the yield spread for the three countries. As
a result, the author considered the linear trend model and the dummies below for South Africa and the
quadratic trend model and dummies below for Morocco and South Africa.
2
Yt = o+ 1Timet + 2Timet + i Dit + t Morocco and Nigeria
i=1
Table 3.17: Shows the Linear Trend and Seasonal Dummy Variable Regression Results (South Africa)
28
Table 3.18: Shows the Quadratic Trend and Seasonal Dummy Variable Regression Results (Morocco)
Table 3.19: Shows the Quadratic Trend and Seasonal Dummy Variable Regression Results (Nigeria)
Dependent Variable: SPREAD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/06/08 Time: 03:15
Sample: 1992Q1 2005Q4
Included observations: 56
variation in the yield spread at least in the case of South Africa. The author therefore excludes the dummy
variables from the forecast model for South Africa but includes the dummy variables in the forecast
AR (p) model
MA (q) model
Tables 3.20 to 3.26 provide the AIC and SIC estimates for various AR and MA processes.
MA Order
0 1 2 3 4
0 3.836832 3.213445 2.847858 2.666828
AR Order 1 2.696736 2.535904 2.478719 2.481130 2.492796
2 2.473483 2.479649 2.486647 2.498621 2.476628
3 2.484050 2.462456 2.474071 2.484896 2.495511
4 2.496814 2.477522 2.486658 2.511902 2.507652
MA Order
0 1 2 3 4
0 3.873431 3.268343 2.921056 2.758325
AR Order 1 2.733481 2.591021 2.552208 2.572992 2.603030
2 2.528821 2.553432 2.578876 2.609296 2.605750
3 2.558131 2.555057 2.585191 2.614537 2.643672
4 2.589789 2.589092 2.616823 2.660663 2.675007
30
Table 3.22: AIC Values, ARMA Models (Morocco)
MA Order
0 1 2 3 4
0 4.107412 4.096161 4.127168 4.161448
AR Order 1 4.102316 4.108774 3.975994 4.101645 4.125594
2 4.125950 3.986706 3.976569 3.991413 3.906611
3 4.172017 4.018662 4.131278 4.082619 4.123159
4 4.231887 4.038840 4.002267 4.061713 3.984842
MA Order
0 1 2 3 4
0 4.360581 4.385497 4.452671 4.523118
AR Order 1 4.357795 4.400750 4.304467 4.466615 4.527061
2 4.420615 4.318203 4.344900 4.396576 4.348607
3 4.506595 4.390415 4.540207 4.528722 4.606439
4 4.607126 4.451603 4.452554 4.549524 4.510177
MA Order
0 1 2 3 4
0 4.360581 4.385497 4.452671 4.523118
AR Order 1 4.357795 4.400750 4.304467 4.466615 4.527061
2 4.420615 4.318203 4.344900 4.396576 4.348607
3 4.506595 4.390415 4.540207 4.528722 4.606439
4 4.607126 4.451603 4.452554 4.549524 4.510177
31
Based on the results from the AIC and SIC, we select the ARMA (2, 0) for South Africa; ARMA (3, 2)
This suggests that the best model to regress yield spread is the ARMA (2, 0) model inclusive of the linear
trend but excluding the seasonal dummies for South Africa; ARMA (3, 2) and ARMA (1, 2) model
inclusive of the quadratic trend and seasonal dummies for Morocco and Nigeria respectively.
2
Yt = o+ 1Timet + 2Timet + i Dit + 2yt-2 + t Morocco and Nigeria
i=1
Table 3.26: Linear Trend Regression and ARMA (2, 0) Disturbances (South Africa)
32
Table 3.27: Quadratic Trend Regression, Seasonal Dummies and ARMA (3, 2) Disturbances (Morocco)
33
Table 3.28: Quadratic Trend Regression, Seasonal Dummies and ARMA (1, 2) Disturbances (Nigeria)
Table 3.26 shows the regression results from the linear trend and ARMA (2, 0) model. Each of the
coefficients is significant. R2 for the model is now 88.37 percent. The Durbin-Watson statistic is now very
acceptable and the standard error of the regression is now reduced to 0.8262.
Table 3.27 shows the regression results from the quadratic trend and ARMA (3, 2) model. In spite of the
fact that some of the coefficients are insignificant, the R2 for the model is now 96 percent. The Durbin-
Watson statistic is now very acceptable and the standard error of the regression is now reduced to 0.1436.
34
Table 3.28 shows the regression results from the Linear Trend and ARMA (1, 2) model. Each of the
coefficients, except for the linear trend coefficients is significant. Even though the linear trend coefficient
is now insignificant, the adjusted R2 for the model is now 88.37 percent. The Durbin-Watson statistic is
now very acceptable and the standard error of the regression is now reduced to 0.8262.
Figures 3.11, 3.13 and 3.15 shows the residual plots for the selected models for South Africa, Morocco
and Nigeria, which looks like white noise and this is also confirmed by the residual correlograms (figures
3.12, 3.14 and 3.16). The sample autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations show no more patterns and
are mostly within the standard error bounds. Each of the Q-stats is insignificant thereby providing
evidence that white noise does exist. As such, the model is able to capture the elements explaining the
Fig 3.11: Linear Trend Regression and ARMA (2, 0) Residual Plot
0
4
-4
2
-8
0
-2
-4
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
35
Fig 3.12: Linear Trend Regression and ARMA (2, 0), Residual Correlogram
36
Fig 3.13: Quadratic Trend, Seasonality and ARMA (3, 2) Regression Residual Plot (Morocco)
1
.2
.1 0
.0
-.1
-.2
-.3
-.4
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Fig 3.14: Quadratic Trend, Seasonality and ARMA (3, 2) Regression, Residual Correlogram (Morocco)
37
Fig 3.15: Quadratic Trend, Seasonality and ARMA (1, 2) Regression Residual Plot (Nigeria)
0
6
4 -4
2 -8
0
-2
-4
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Fig 3.16: Quadratic Trend, Seasonality and ARMA (1, 2) Regression, Residual Correlogram (Nigeria)
Date: 05/06/08 Time: 04:16
Sample: 1992Q2 2005Q4
Included observations: 55
Q-statistic
probabilities
adjusted for 3 ARMA
term(s)
spread. Figures 3.17, 3.18 and 3.19 show the history of the yield spread and the four quarters-ahead
forecast. It is apparent that the model forecasts well and adequately picks up all relevant elements in the
series as the realization fits within the confidence intervals shown by the lower and upper limits.
6
Forecast: SPREADF
5 Actual: SPREAD
4 Forecast sample: 2006Q1 2006Q4
Included observations: 4
3
Root Mean Squared Error 0.865454
2
Mean Absolute Error 0.597711
1 Mean Abs. Percent Error 185.0955
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.434289
0 Bias Proportion 0.476973
Variance Proportion 0.164668
-1
Covariance Proportion 0.358359
-2
-3
2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4
SPREADF
39
Fig 3.18: History and 4-Quarters-Ahead Forecast
-2
-4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
FORECAST UPPER
HISTORY ACTUAL
LOWER
40
Fig 3.19: 4-Quarters Forecast (Morocco)
4
Forecast: SPREADF
Actual: SPREAD
3 Forecast sample: 2001Q1 2006Q4
Included observations: 24
-1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SPREADF
41
Fig 3.20: History and 4-Quarters-Ahead Forecast (Morocco)
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
ACTUAL UPPER
HISTORY FORECAST
LOWER
42
Fig 3.21: 4-Quarters Forecast (Nigeria)
2
Forecast: SPREADF
Actual: SPREAD
0
Forecast sample: 2006Q1 2006Q4
Included observations: 4
-2
Root Mean Squared Error 4.766529
-4 Mean Absolute Error 4.211038
Mean Abs. Percent Error 453.0544
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.623990
-6 Bias Proportion 0.780502
Variance Proportion 0.186027
-8 Covariance Proportion 0.033472
-10
2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4
SPREADF
43
Fig 3.22: History and 4-Quarters-Ahead Forecast (Nigeria)
-4
-8
-12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
FORECAST LOWER
ACTUAL HISTORY
UPPER
44
SECTION 4
AND CONCLUSION
The author’s findings reveal the robustness of the yield spread and its predictive ability particularly in
South Africa where the results suggest that the yield spread as a predictive indicator of future economic
In addition, the author’s attempt at determining the best forecasting model to explain the dynamics in the
yield spread provided a number of revelations on how the yield spread fluctuates rapidly as a result of
Conclusion
The paper found evidence to suggest that the yield spread is a predictive indicator of future economic
activities in South Africa. Also, the paper reveals that the linear trend with ARMA (2, 0) is the best
model12 to forecast the yield spread in South Africa. In Morocco, the quadratic trend with seasonal
dummies and ARMA (3, 2) is the best model to forecast the yield spread and in Nigeria, the quadratic
trend with seasonal dummies and ARMA (1, 2) is the best model to forecast the yield spread.
12
The author has only employed trend, seasonality and ARMA regression models in this study.
45
However, a clear suggestion from the forecasting model results particularly for Morocco and Nigeria is
the possibility that there are other variables, which I have not considered in this study that may further
This gives credence to the author’s views that several financial and non-financial variables may have a
strong influence on the yield spread. The author is also of the opinion that variables such as inflation
expectations via the consumer price index (CPI), money supply, exchange rate, monetary asset values and
consumer sentiment13, may be very good determinants to consider in terms of their influence on the yield
spread.
While the African continent is particularly different from the United States, the continent is not entirely
insulated from the market and macroeconomic fundamentals from abroad. It is believed that the reliability
and predictive power of yield spreads in the United States has diminished significantly compared to the
The determinants of the yield spread today are materially different from the determinants that
The impact of changes in international capital flows and inflation expectations have changed
considerably overtime.
Reduction in the risk premiums of long term bonds caused by considerable improvement in the
fiscal balance may have distorted the predictive power of the yield spread of government bonds.
13
Consumer sentiment is presently not being measured in any of the three countries of focus
14
The listed factors were influenced by the Saito and Takeda paper. See reference section for further details.
46
In addition to the points listed above, there are arguments on the inappropriateness of using data before
1990 to measure the connection between the yield spread and future economic activities as some of the
countries in consideration particularly Morocco and Nigeria have not had a long history of accurate and
Looking ahead, more work may be needed to understand how the yield spread is influenced by other
variables including the ones mentioned earlier. Further regressions on these variables and their
While the author has attempted to provide interpretation for the results, the author suggests the results
should be treated with caution because of the obvious data limitations and sometimes small sample size.
15
Source of the Greenspan quote is: Alan Greenspan, 2005. Letter to the Honorable Jim Saxson (Nov. 28).
47
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