So you thought 2010 was tough

Simon Tisdall Politically speaking, not a lot changed and not a lot was solved in 2010. Economic hard times, disappointment with an underachieving Barack Obama, the familiar bloody slog in Afghanistan, lack of progress on climate change, sabre-rattling in east Asia and stalemate in West Asia made it a year many will be happy to forget. But because so many problems will carry over, 2010 was also a year of living dangerously. It ends with the uncomfortable thought: that was bad, but 2011 could be worse. Peacemakers Blessed they may be, but it was not a good year for them. Perhaps the biggest flop, and certainly the most widely predicted, was the U.S. administration's failure to secure an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, or even the prospect of one. Perhaps the biggest success was the relative calm achieved in Zimbabwe by the power-sharing government after years of vicious internecine strife. For a while, in West Asia, it seemed momentum was with Mr. Obama and his special envoy, George Mitchell. But the Americans soon ran into all the familiar roadblocks, epitomised by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's inability, or unwillingness, to extend a moratorium on new building in the occupied territories a key Palestinian precondition for direct negotiations. Efforts to end the war in Afghanistan through dialogue with the elusive, many-headed Taliban were much debated but produced no tangible results. President Hamid Karzai, the Pakistani military, Afghan exiles, the U.N. and western officials were all reportedly engaged in negotiations of one kind or another. But little changed and the war, if anything, got worse and it remains unclear whether Mr. Obama can meet his July 2011 deadline for the start of a phased U.S. withdrawal. Hard of healing Less prominent conflicts also defied resolution. In Spain, the government rejected an offer by Basque militants to end their separatist struggle. In the Caucasus, hostility between Georgia and Russia over the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia simmered dangerously. In Yemen, north-south political and tribal tensions were exacerbated by Saudi Arabian, Iranian, alQaeda, and U.S. interventions. Despite the freeing of pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi, the brutal Myanmarese junta's fake elections fooled nobody. Arms control Iran hogged the international spotlight in 2010 and can be expected to do so again next year, as the seemingly endless drama over its suspect nuclear programme produced anger, fear and frustration in equal measure. Panjandrums of Pyongyang Stalinist, reckless and enigmatic, North Korea remained a problem of huge concern. Kim Jong-il's regime provocatively revealed its uranium enrichment facilities to the world, conducted more military exercises, sank a South Korean naval vessel and then attacked a South Korean island in November, killing civilians in the process. As the New Year begins, tension around the east Asia region is sky-high which is the height the debris could reach if Kim and his son and heir press the red button. Democrats 2011 will be a similarly big year for Mr. Obama, as he begins to position himself for a second term. The U.S. President needs some substantive achievements, at home and abroad, on which to form a campaign platform and he has a lot of work to do. Likewise, 2011 will see the field of Republican presidential contenders narrow, with much attention centred on the improbable Sarah Palin. A referendum in Sudan, early in January, on southern succession will be a truer test of democracy in action. Some fear Khartoum's rulers will not let the south take its independence without a fight. What is more likely is a prolonged, post-independence struggle over resources, borderlines and revenue, since

an independent south would control most of Sudan's oil while lacking the means to refine, export and sell it. Old world, old fears The 2010 Eurozone crisis victimised Greece and Ireland and left Portugal, Spain and Italy peering ahead to 2011 with mounting trepidation. But democracy was also a victim, as farright political parties across Europe exploited the economic downturn to promote their often xenophobic, racist, anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim views. Further to the south and east, Iraq and Afghanistan struggled separately and with mixed results to make western-imposed democracy work. In penniless, unstable and flood-damaged Pakistan, questions persist over how long the elected government can struggle on and even whether democracy will survive. Shocks and surprises An earthquake that struck Haiti in January killed at least 150,000 people and brought misery to millions, raising questions about the efficacy of the international response. Heavy rains in northwest Pakistan caused record floods, dislocating tens of millions of people. And a wholly unanticipated volcano eruption in Iceland reintroduced millions of Europeans to long-haul land travel. The campaigning WikiLeaks website stunned the world, with a series of spectacular leaks of classified information concerning Afghanistan, Iraq, and the U.S. State Department's private dealings with governments around the world. All 33 miners trapped underground for more than two months in Chile were rescued, more or less unscathed, amid national rejoicing that spawned a brief global feelgood moment. Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2010