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SUMMARY
Rentals Stagnate as Demand Dips Cautious sentiment displayed by occupiers has led to a dip in demand in Q2 compared to previous quarter. Restrained precommitments have also limited introduction of fresh supply in the market, as developers wait for rentals to increase to adequate levels. The scenario in the office space segment has been driven largely by the overall economic climate, with all stakeholders adopting a wait and watch policy. Rentals have consequently remained stable throughout the first half of 2012 and are not expected to register growth until the end of the year. Office space demand in NCR continues to be driven by the IT/ITeS industry and is focused primarily in Gurgaon (southern suburb), with developers in Noida (eastern suburb) holding back fresh supply. In view of the quantum of expected supply to be introduced, lease rentals are likely to remain at rationalized levels for the foreseeable future.
MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT
Domestic growth decelerated on the back of global and domestic factors
The domestic GDP growth declined sharply to 6.5% during 2011-12 from 8.4% in the previous year. The quarterly growth rates have been showing a declining trend for the preceding four quarters with the fourth quarter GDP growth rate slowing to 5.3% the lowest quarterly growth rate in last 7 years. The growth faces increased pressure from moderation in investment demand, domestic cyclical and structural factors and an uncertain global environment. Business confidence, as measured by the business expectations indices of the Reserve Bank's industrial outlook survey, showed a pick-up in the business sentiment in Q4 of 2011-12, but a marginal moderation in Q1 of 2012-13. The inflation during June 2012 has moderately slowed down to 7.25%, the lowest level in past five months. The inflation has declined largely on account of transitory factors including a favorable base effect and seasonal decline in vegetable prices. The moderation was initially driven by softening of food prices and then by a decline in non-food manufactured products (core) inflation. Notwithstanding the recent moderation in global crude oil prices and domestic price pressures in manufactured products, upside risks to inflation remain. Transitory factors have helped moderate inflation, but inflation is likely to turn sticky in FY 2012-13. The likely trends in global crude oil prices, going ahead, remain uncertain. Moreover, the impact of the lagged pass-through of rupee depreciation, suppressed inflation in energy and fertilizers and possible fiscal slippage continue to pose a significant threat. The bank rate has been reduced marginally from 9.50% in Q1 2012 to 9% in Q2 2012. The Reserve Bank of India had announced a reduction of 50 basis points in the repo rate this quarter on April 17, 2012; this reduction has taken place for the first time in past 3 years. The repo and reverse repo rate are at 8% and 7% respectively. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has been retained at 4.75% of their NDTL this quarter ending June. The Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) also remained at 24% since past two years. Though there has been a marginal decline in both inflation and bank rate, the Real Estate sector continues to be under pressure, due to high cost of borrowing. The risks to health of the corporate sector in the economy remain elevated in Q2 2012. The recent corporate results point to falling profitability due to rise in input costs, including interest costs, and moderation of external and domestic demand.
Percent
20 15 10
Dec-09
Feb-11
Jun-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-11
Aug-11
SLR
CRR
Percent
6 5 4 3 2 1 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Repo Reverse Repo 0
Dec-10
Aug-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
Percent
8
7.40%
6 4 2 0
5.30%
Q3 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012* Source: RBI, CSO * Latest Round Projection by Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by RBI
Apr-12
Jun-10
Jun-12
Oct-10
Oct-11
Major Real Estate Companies in India DLF Limited Unitech India Bulls Sobha Developers Peninsula Land Parsvnath Developers Pheonix Omaxe Limited Mahindra Lifespace
Sales (In INR / In million) Q1 2012 26,168 7,161 4,452 4,769 2,771 2,192 531 6,036 1,400 654 628 3,253 Q4 2011 20,344 5,139 3,565 3,137 454 2,396 505 4,518 1,538 922 1,469 2,262
Profits (In INR / In million) Q4 2011 2,495 575 408 401 105 248 269 193 395 339 298 -213 Q on Q Change % -25% -94% 42% 122% 687% -196% 2% 23% -19% -64% -157% 3%
Q on Q Q1 2012 Change % 29% 39% 25% 52% 510% -9% 5% 34% -9% -29% -57% 44% 1,861 33 578 890 828 -237 273 273 321 123 -171 -219
Percent
8 6 4
2
Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sept-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
DELHI MAP
pur Rd Sharan
nk Rd
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Bag hp at
Rd
Gran
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10
d dl iR
Swarna Jayanthi Park
Dr. K
Rd nk ru dT an Gr
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Heg
Ba
dew
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Railway Line
arg
Rd
rR
ing
Airport
Kar nal Rd
Yamuna River
12
Ri
NH-10
Rohtak
NH-10
ng
Rd
M
Ran
Shahdara
r Rin g Rd
ja Na
fga
rh
Rd
Vishnu Garden
Ghaz ipu
Rd
4 2 9
g Road
Pursa Forest Gol Market
Chandni Chowk
r Rd
Pa t
el
Gra nd Tr unk Rd
11
nM
NH-
24
Gr
Ma
da
an
Tr u
nk
Rd
Oute
Shiv
aji M
arg
2 1 5 4 6
g ar Vikas M
NH-24
Hapur Bypass
Shivaji M
arg
1
Jail Rd
3(d) 3(e)
No
3(c)
Rin
8 7
Upp er
Indraprasth
Car
Mehra
-8
3(b)
iap
pa
Africa Ave
Dwarka
Gu rg
aon Rd
Palam
Domestic Airport
Rd
J ay
elh
anti
20
M 5D iR
all
Rd
NOIDA
3
d Da dr iR
Pala m
a arn
DELHI
nR
Ol
Ja
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d rR
3 5
2
Roa dN o. 1 3A
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arg
Dodri Rd
Gr ea
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7
ga rh
at Marg
Gu
eh
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ao
5
Yamuna River Badarpur
Qutub Minar
Pal a
An uv r
aj
3(a)
af
Vih
Rd
ao
1(a)
Me h
Ol
Gu
rg
li rau
Ja
Gur
ip
Rd
gao
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nR
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Mathura Rd
Rajpur Khurd
lh
iR
1(d)
li R d
Leisure Valley
GURGAON
Basai Rd
De
1(c) 1(b)
DLF Golf Course
1
Rd
Me
u hra
Pa
di tau
Manesar 2
ur
NH
Jai p
1(f) 6
Dera
1. Gurgaon 1 (a). DLF Cyber City 1 (b). Golf Course Road 1 (c). Institutional Sectors / Sushant Lok 1 (d). MG Road 1 (e). Udyog Vihar / Nh8 1 (f). Sohna Road 2. Manesar
ar
Rd
Rajokri
Mehra uli B ad
arpur Rd
Greater Noida
Ag ra
Rd
1(e)
ee
Lon
i Jhan
iR
si Marg
ru
NH-91
t
h ar ig Al
te rN oi da
Hindan Airbase
ut e
Ma
and hatma G
Ring Rd
hi Marg
ida Lin kR d
Jai nR d
Ma th ur aR d
Ma
ma da an An
yee M ar
Rail way Rd
Old Sh
Faridabad
er Shah Rd
Agra
The micro-market maintains its preeminent position as a favored destination for BFSI and other corporate sector companies. Although no new fresh supply is expected in the near future, the micro-market is expected to witness sustained demand for investment grade office space.
The average rentals & capital values for the last 6 quarters are as follows:-
36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 CBD
CBD
220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Bikaji Cama Place Jasola Vihar Munirka Nehru Place Qutub Institutional Area Saket Vasant Kunj The average rentals & capital values for the last 6 quarters are as follows:-
24,000
22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Bikaji Cama Place 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 Jasola Vihar Munirka Nehru Place 14,500 14,500 14,500 16,000 16,000 16,000 15,500 15,500 15,500 15,500 15,500 15,500 20,300 20,300 20,300 20,300 20,300 20,300
Qutab 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 Institutional Area Saket Vasant Kunj 20,500 20,500 20,500 23,000 23,000 23,000 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500
75 70 65 60 55 50 45 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Janak Puri Mathura Industrial Area Okhla Pitampura Shahdara The average rentals & capital values for the last 6 quarters are as follows:-
Pitampura Shahdara
8,000
7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Janak Puri Mathura Industrial Area Okhla Pitampura Shahdara
Pitampura Shahdara
M G Road - Gurgaon Golf Course Rd Gurgaon DLF Cyber City Sohna Road Gurgaon Expressway - Noida
NH 8 / Udyog Vihar - Gurgaon Sector 62, Noida Manesar - Gurgaon Sector 58, Noida Sector 63/64, Noida
18,000
Sector 63/64
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
M G Road - Gurgaon Golf Course Rd Gurgaon Sohna Road Gurgaon Expressway - Noida Sector 62, Noida
NH 8 / Udyog Vihar - Gurgaon Manesar - Gurgaon Sector 58, Noida Sector 63/64, Noida
Region
CBD
INR / sq.ft
35,000
Q on Q Change
0%
Region
Bikaji Cama Place Jasola Vihar Munirka Nehru Place Qutab Institutional Area Saket Vasant Kunj
Region
Bikaji Cama Place Jasola Vihar Munirka Nehru Place Qutab Institutional Area Saket Vasant Kunj
INR / sq.ft
12,500 16,000 15,500 20,300 12,500 23,000 20,500
Q on Q Change
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
0%
Region
Janak Puri Mathura Industrial Area Okhla Pitampura Shahdara
SBD Q on Q Change
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Region
Janak Puri Mathura Industrial Area Okhla Pitampura Shahdara
INR / sq.ft
7,500 6,000 6,000 5,500 5,500
Q on Q Change
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Region
Gurgaon DLF Cyber City Golf Course Rd MG Road NH8 / Udyog vihar Sohna Rd Manesar Manesar Noida Expressway Sector 58 Sector 62 Sector 63/64
PBD Q on Q Change
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Region
Gurgaon Golf Course Rd MG Road NH8 / Udyog vihar Sohna Rd Manesar Manesar Noida Expressway Sector 58 Sector 62 Sector 63/64
INR / sq.ft
17,000 17,000 8,000 8,000 4,500 7,300 4,300 4,700 4,000
Q on Q Change
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10
KEY TRANSACTIONS
Q2 2012 Property
Konnectus Konnectus DLF South Court Spazedge Tower-B JMD Megapolis Orchid Business Park Unitech Cyber Park Assotech One Time Tower A-31 Fortune Towers Spaze IT Park Spaze IT Park Advant Navis Unitech Infospace, Tower-2
Occupiers
Hitachi National Insurance GAP Big Bazaar Convergys Volkswogan E Value Serve Denave Software India Pvt Ltd Mercedes Benz Tata Motors NA Capgemini Aircel IBM Artech India
Space (sq.ft)
21,000 23,000 47,000 40,000 100,000 20,000 25,000 12,000 3,100 52,000 9,000 36,000 25,000 30,000 20,000
Micro Market
CBD CBD Alternate CBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD
Location
New Delhi New Delhi New Delhi Gurgaon Gurgaon Gurgaon Gurgaon Noida Gurgaon Noida Gurgaon Gurgaon Gurgaon Noida Noida
11
KEY PROJECTS
New Supply - Year 2012 Building
Konnectus DLF Capitol Point Universal Business Park Vatika Professional Point Bestech Park View Business Tower Matrix Tower Ansal Corporate Park Plot No.12A Lago Vista Arihant IT Park Cyberwalk (Eco Tower) Paras Trade Centre Suncity Trade Tower
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate - Research, India
Location
New Delhi New Delhi Golf course extension Golf course extension Sohna Road Noida Noida Noida Noida Noida Manesar Gurgaon-Faridabad Road Sector-21,Gurgaon
Micro Market
CBD CBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD PBD
Space in sq.ft
200,000 80,000 300,000 160,000 650,000 215,000 150,000 80,000 150,000 80,000 250,000 250,000 175,000
12
GLOSSARY
Q2: Quarter 1 of the financial year (April - May - June) Absorption: Occupied Stock (n) Occupied Stock (n-1); Where n is the specified period (quarter, year etc.) Bare Shell: Premises consisting of basic structure with lifts, power supply to junction box, water supply line, toilets BPO: Business Process Outsourcing BUA: Built up area Super Built-up Area (SBUA): Built-up area + common area including lifts area, common passages, utilities, terrace etc. & varies from building to building. Carpet Area: Actual usable area, and does not include any common areas, area occupied by walls etc. Completed Stock: Either the building has received occupancy certificate or the client has moved in and occupied space and started working in a particular premises DU: Dwelling Unit EPIP: Export Promotion Industrial Park FAR: Floor Area Ratio (BUA/ Plot Area) Grade A Space: Office Space with efficiency in excess of 75%, floor plate in excess of 15,000 sq. ft., Car Parking ratio of atleast 1 per 1000 sq. ft., Floor-to-ceiling height in excess of 3.75 m, Power provision of 1.25KVA per 100 sq. ft. with 100% power-backup wherever applicable and professionally managed facilities Ground Coverage: It is the total covered area on ground by the built component and is expressed as a percentage of the plot area Hard Option: Real estate space reserved by the lessee for future occupation within a particular time frame and at a pre-decided rental INR: Indian National Rupees Pre-lease: Space committed for lease before completion of construction Speculative Stock: The stock which can be leased and excludes Built-to-Suit (BTS) and Campus facilities. Stock: Cumulative Supply Supply: New construction in a particular specified period Transaction Volumes: Total number of transaction in a particular specified period Vacancy: Total vacant space in the completed stock Warm Shell: Premises consisting of power backup, high side A.C., common area fit outs and fitted out toilets Q on Q: Quarter on Quarter y-o-y: year-on-year (All growth figures in this report are y-o-y unless otherwise mentioned IT: Information Technology ITES: Information Technology Enabled Services (includes various services ranging from call centres, claims processing, medical transcription, e-CRM, SCM to back-office operations such as accounting, data processing, and data mining) Repo Rate: Rate that an eligible depository institution (such as a bank) is charged to borrow short term funds directly from the central bank through the discount window Reverse Repo Rate: Interest rate that a bank earns for lending money to the Reserve Bank of India in exchange for government securities SEC A, B, C & D Socio: Economic Classification; SEC A represents the highest propensity to spend and SEC D represents the lowest propensity to spend. Sq.ft: Square Feet Sq.mt: Square Meter Mn: Million Stamp Duty: Form of tax charged on instruments (written documents) requiring a physical stamp (for government legality) to be attached to or impressed. New: Building built within the last 5 years. Recent: Building less than 10 years old. NCR: National Capital Region (Includes urban agglomeration of Delhi, Gurgaon, Faridabad, Noida, Gaziabad etc) SEZ: Special Economic Zone having special tax exemptions / incentives to corporate occupiers BFSI: Banking & Financial Services Industry SLR: Statutory Liquidity Ratio FSI: Floor Space Index CRR: Cash Reserve Ratio Major Refurbishment: Building which has undergone structural alteration less than 5 years ago, subject to planning permission. Renovated: Building which has undergone renovation work not requiring for planning permission less than 5 years ago. Modern: High-performance building over 10 years old. Old: Low-performance building over 10 years old. CCI (Cost of construction index): Index that makes quarterly measurements of construction prices for new house building. It is the price after VAT paid by the owner to construction companies. It excludes land-related prices and costs (site development, special foundations, etc.), fees and financial costs. Demand: A search for premises expressed to BNP Paribas Real Estate. The analysis pertains only to the flow of new demand expressed. For the occupier: Operation undertaken by an occupier for its own purposes. New Supply: Any new building and/or heavily refurbished building that adds to the existing stocks. These are analysed according to progress. Completed new supply: Buildings on which construction work is finished. Under construction: Buildings on which construction has effectively begun. Prior demolition work is not taken into account. Planning permission granted: Authorisation to build obtained, generally booked after settlement of third party claims. Planning permission submitted: Planning permission requested, being processed. Pre-letting: Transaction by an occupier more than 6 months before the delivery of the building. Headline rent: Monthly rent per square feet, charged on super built-up area basis, featured on the lease, and expressed excluding fitouts, taxes, deposits, advances, maintenance charges and does not take into account building efficiency (super built up area - carpet area ratio). Further it does not include attached premises such as parking areas, archives, staff canteens, etc. If the rental is progressive, the value applied is the average for the first 3 years or the fixed term of the lease. Average headline rent: Weighted average of rented area. The average featured is a moving average over the quarter, to smooth out the changes, exclusive of all taxes, deposits, advances & maintenance charges.. Underlying rent: Annual rent per square meter expressed free of tax and charges and excluding advantages agreed by the owners (rent incentive building works, etc). Prime rents: Represents the top headline rent (excluding non significant transactions) for an office unit:- of standard size, of the highest quality and specification, in the best location in each market. Top rent: Represents the top headline rent for an office unit. It is not necessarily a prime rent. Second hand premises: Premises that have been previously occupied by an occupier for vacant for more than 5 years. Very good condition: High-performance premises of high quality. Existing state of repair: Low-performance premises that can be rented as they are. To be renovated: Low performance premises that need renovation. Supply available within 1 year: All premises and buildings available within 1 year including the supply available immediately, new supply that has not been pre-let and second hand supply that will be vacated definitively (notable terminated leases). Take-up: Rental or sale of a property asset, finalised by the signature of a lease or a bill of sale including turnkey transactions and owner-occupier. The transaction is only taken into account once any existing conditional clauses have been lifted. Vacancy rate: Ratio measuring the relationship between the supply immediately available and the existing stock. Disclaimer: This report is released by BNP Paribas Real Estate & Infrastructure Advisory Services and the information in it is dedicated to the exclusive use of its clients. The report and the information contained in it should not be copied or reproduced without prior permission from BNP Paribas Real Estate and Infrastructure Advisory Services. The facts of these reports are believed to be correct at the time of it's release but cannot be guaranteed. Please note the findings, projections, conclusions and recommendations are based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. BNP Paribas Real Estate & Infrastructure Advisory Services cannot be held responsible if, despite it's best efforts, the information contained in the present report turns out to be inaccurate or incomplete.
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Non contractual document - Research department March 2012. Photo courtesy : Vighneshwara Developers. BNP Paribas Real Estate : Simplified joint stock company with capital of 329 196 608 - 692 012 180 RCS Nanterre - Code NAF 4110B - CE identification number : FR 666 920 121 80 Headquarters: 167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad - 92867 Issy Les Moulineaux Cedex - BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Banking Group.