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Punj Lloyd
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 3QFY13 2,881 291 9 3QFY12 2,808 164 70 % chg (yoy) 2.6 77.8 (87.5) 2QFY13 2,778 314 (18) % chg (qoq) 3.7 (7.3) (148.9)
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 1,725 5,487 1.5 66/42 604,918 2 19,461 5,898 PUJL.BO
`54 -
For 3QFY2013, Punj Lloyd (Punj) posted a mixed set of numbers. The performance at the revenue fronts was subdued, however higher share of profits from associates led to profitability at the earnings level. The company has secured orders worth `1,300cr in 3QFY2013, taking its order backlog to `23,690cr (2.0x FY2013 revenue). However, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock on account of various overhangs uncertainty over receivable claims, stretched working capital and increasing leverage on the balance sheet. Profit from associates led to profitability: The company reported a subdued topline growth of 2.6% yoy to `2,881cr. The EBITDAM for the quarter stood at 10.1%, showing an improvement of 427bp on a yoy basis. Interest cost came in at `198cr, a jump of 22.2% on a yoy basis, but a fall of 4.7% on a sequential basis. Depreciation for the quarter was flat at `88cr. On the bottom-line front, the company reported a PAT of `9cr vs. `70cr in 3QFY2012; that too owing to profits from its associates (which reported a profit of `8cr vs a loss of `5cr in 3QFY2012) and healthy performance at the operating level. Outlook and valuation: Based on its 9MFY2013 performance, we are revising our EPS estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 to `(0.4) and `3 respectively. Punj has been looking to reduce its debt through sale of its non-core assets and replacing Indian debt with foreign debt. However, given the difficult environment we believe these steps would not yield results before the next six to nine months. Further, there is no clarity on the time-frame of recovering various outstanding claims as legal issues such as litigation and arbitration usually are lengthy processes. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock due to headwinds faced by the company as mentioned above.
PUNJ@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 37.2 14.1 12.1 36.7
3m 4.2
1yr 9.6
(1.1) (11.4)
FY2011 8,139 (22.1) (59.5) (1.8) 8.9 (2.0) 6.2 0.6 0.5 6.0 2.3 20,529 17.9
FY2012 10,557 29.7 92 (254.3) 2.8 8.5 18.8 3.1 7.9 0.6 0.5 6.3 2.5 21,937 6.9
FY2013E 11,892 12.6 (14) (115.4) (0.4) 10.2 (121.9) (0.5) 9.8 0.6 0.6 5.5 2.4 22,595 3.0
FY2014E 13,116 10.3 98 (795.1) 3.0 10.2 17.5 3.4 10.1 0.6 0.5 5.2 2.4 23,273 3.0
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
3QFY13 2,881 2,590 291 10.1 198 88 3 8 8 (1) 8 2 9 0.3 9 0.3 0.3
3QFY12 2,808 2,644 164 5.8 162 89 195 107 33 75 (5) 1 70 2.5 70 2.5 2.1
% yoy chg 2.6 (2.1) 77.8 427bp 22.2 (1.2) (98.6) (93.0) (74.2) (101.2) (260.7) 180.3 (87.5) (220)bp (87.5) (220)bp (87.5)
2QFY13 2,778 2,464 314 11.3 208 93 4 17 43 (26) (4) 12 (18) (0.6) (18) (0.6) (0.5)
% qoq chg 3.7 5.1 (7.3) (120) bp (4.7) (5.1) (23.2) (55.1) (80.2) (96.6) (310.1) (85.3) (148.9) 95bp (148.9) 95bp -
9MFY2013 8,435 7,542 893 10.6 589 275 11 40 81 (42) 3 16 (23) (0.3) (23) (0.3) (0.7)
9MFY2012 7,463 6,917 546 7.3 405 229 266 178 86 92 (8) (1) 83 1.1 83 1.1 2.5
% chg 13.0 9.0 63.5 327bp 45.3 20.0 (96.0) (77.7) (5.4) (145.3) (138.2) (2,221.3) (127.2) (138)bp (127.2) (138)bp (127.2)
Libya: Out of the total Libyan orders (~`4,200cr), slow moving orders consist of `2,000cr as of 3QFY2013. The company has commenced operations at Sirte Basin.
FY2014E Variation (%) 13.3 Earlier Estimates 13,116 9.0 107 Revised Estimates 13,116 10.2 98 Variation (%) 13.3 (7.8) 11,892 10.2 (14)
Revised Estimates
11,892 9.0 60
In order to lower its interest cost, Punj is looking to reduce its debt by sale of non-core assets, and replacing Indian debt with foreign debt. However, given the difficult environment, we believe these steps would not yield results before the next six to nine months. Further, there is no clarity on timeframe of recovering various outstanding claims as legal issues such as litigation and arbitration usually are lengthy processes. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock due to headwinds faced by the company.
(0.4) 3.0
Company background
Punj Lloyd (Punj) is a diversified global engineering and construction company, with presence across the infrastructure (34% of order book), pipeline (20%), and process segments (20%). Punj Group has two main entities Punj, headquartered in India and SEC in Singapore. Punj started as a pipeline company in 1982. Over the years, Punj, with the help of various JVs and acquisitions, has increased its expertise in basic infrastructure projects, such as roads, power, cross-country pipelines, urban infrastructure, tankages and terminals and process plants, among others. Punj was listed in 2006, and in the same year, it acquired SEC and Simon Carves.
33 Neutral
136.8 55.2 (2.8) 15.1 8.1 23.2 71.0 28.4 (3.5) 13.0 31.7 3.5 9.2 2.7
12,853 13,842 15,863 53,171 60,666 69,525 5,250 2,676 6,010 1,973 5,863 2,344 6,906 2,180 6,576 2,804 8,053 2,455
1,490 1,788
14.3 64.3
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 11,912 10,448 53.6 3,751 6,429 1,292 440 (36.4) 3.7 177 263 (51.7) 2.2 352 71 (406) (17) (103.9) (19) 1 226 16,925.9 (225) (7) 6 (225) (240) (173.2) (2.0) (7.9) (7.2) (173.2) (12.3) 3,770 4,968 1,345 365 (17.2) 3.5 227 137 (47.8) 1.3 387 108 (77) (141) (162) 21 137 654.4 (116) 10 (2) (108) (363) 51.1 (3.5) (10.9) (10.9) 51.1 11,912 10,448 11,472 10,083 8,139 10,557 (22.1) 7,411 2,384 3,900 1,127 728 99.7 8.9 269 459 233.5 5.6 463 21 131 16 16 66 417.4 (50) 2 (3) (8) (60) (60) (0.7) (1.8) (1.8) (83.6) 29.7 9,660 3,100 5,207 1,353 897 23.3 8.5 299 599 30.5 5.7 633 227 118 193 193 81 41.8 112 (11) (9) 92 92 0.9 2.8 2.8 8,139 10,557
11,892 11,892 13,116 13,116
12.6
10,679 3,449 5,887 1,344 1,213
10.3
11,778 3,804 6,493 1,482 1,338
35.2 10.2
380 833
10.3 10.2
408 930
39.1 7.0
773 27 31 -
11.7 7.1
872 124 68 -
87 (55.2)
-
182 110.6
-
87
104
182
62
120.0
(17)
34.0
120
2 1 (14) (14)
(12) (10) 98 98
(83.6) (254.3)
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 61 2,424 2,485 42 3,559 174 6,260 2,653 777 1,875 297 661 8,295 812 1,053 6,430 4,895 3,400 0 6,260 66 2,961 3,027 42 4,455 184 7,709 3,120 943 2,178 160 382 8,828 611 1,042 7,175 3,843 4,985 7,709 66 2,912 2,979 74 3,881 156 7,090 3,365 1,113 2,252 82 384 147 1,215 990 7,139 5,123 4,220 7,090 66 2,854 2,920 87 4,944 171 8,123 4,154 1,368 2,787 267 371 152 973 1,271 8,756 6,470 4,530 8,123
66 66
371
371
152
12,583 796 1,431 10,356 7,186 5,397 8,895
152
14,095 1,095 1,579 11,422 7,984 6,112 9,515
9,343 11,000
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 1 177 983 71 226 (653) (115) 71 (697) 1,952 11 (20) 1,921 122 690 812 21 227 108 137 (338) 279 108 50 648 896 6 (5) 1,533 (201) 812 611 16 269 21 66 1,567 (166) (2) (147) 21 (295) (8) (575) 6 (80) (668) 604 611 1,215 193 299 552 227 81 (367) (974) 13 (5) 227 (739) 2 1,064 6 (195) 864 (242) 1,215 973 87 380 1,045 27 104
(709)
1,786 (1,369)
(1,101) (1,783)
(285) 27
(258)
(314) 124
(190)
800 14 3
789 (177) 973 796
536 14 (22)
500 299 796 1,095
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order Book/Sales (x) Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROAE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage
previous year numbers
FY2009 FY2010 0.6 0.7 0.4 10.2 0.7 1.7 (7.9) (7.2) (2.1) 0.4 81.9 2.2 2.6 0.7 4.9 5.7 (9.2) 5.0 88 73 125 64 1.1 6.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 15.3 0.7 2.7 (10.9) (10.9) (4.1) 0.2 91.2 1.3 1.7 1.1 2.0 2.2 (13.2) 3.6 145 85 151 122 1.3 10.5 0.4
FY2011 8.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 6.0 0.6 2.3 (1.8) (1.8) 6.3 0.2 89.7 5.6 1.3 1.1 6.2 7.1 (2.0) 2.5 213 98 107 165 0.9 3.7 1.0
FY2012 FY2013E FY2013E 18.8 4.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 6.3 0.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 11.8 0.2 87.9 5.7 58.2 1.6 5.3 8.3 1.1 1.9 7.9 9.2 3.1 2.8 191 80 102 113 1.4 4.4 0.9
4.7 0.6 17.5 3.4 0.6
0.8
0.6 5.5 0.8 2.4 (0.4) (0.4) 11.0
0.8
0.5 5.2 0.7 2.4 3.0 3.0 15.2
0.4
87.1 7.0 (20.0)
0.4
89.6 7.1 66.0
1.6
(2.2) (2.9) 1.5 (1.1)
1.6
7.4 9.6 1.7 3.8
9.8
10.9 (0.5) 2.8 203 87
10.1
11.3 3.4 2.8 205 94
117
125 1.7 4.1 1.1
119
134 1.7 3.9 1.1
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
10
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Website: www.angelbrokling.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Punj Lloyd No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11