Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 18, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 18, 2013

Highlights
US markets closed today on the eve of Presidents Day. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment increased to 76.3-mark in Feb. European Trade Balance was at surplus of 12 billion Euros in Dec. UKs Retail Sales declined by 0.6 percent in the last month. US Empire State Manufacturing Index at 10-mark in current month. US Empire State Manufacturing Index was at 10-mark in February from earlier decline of 7.8-level in last month. Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases increased by $64.2 billion in December as against a rise of $52.4 billion a month ago. Capacity Utilization Rate was at 79.1 percent in January as compared to rise of 79.3 percent in December. Industrial Production declined by 0.1 percent in January with respect to rise of 0.4 percent in earlier month. Prelim University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment increased by 5 points to 76.3-mark in February from previous rise of 71.3-level in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5887.4 19468.2 13981.76 1519.8 16489.8 1981.2 58497.8 11173.8 95.86 1608.80 2983.90 8240.75 102.06 -0.1 Prev. day -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 0.0

as on February 15, 2013 WoW -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.8 1.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -3.4 -5.0 -0.4 0.1 0.2 MoM -2.9 -2.8 2.4 3.2 -6.9 -0.3 -5.9 6.5 0.4 -4.6 -6.5 5.0 YoY 6.6 7.2 8.4 13.2 0.7 1.5 -11.6 21.0 -6.3 -6.8 -10.5 -1.6 -1.8

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that, unfavorable economic data from the Euro region and reemergence of Euro Zone debt crisis also supported an upside in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of US retail sales, unemployment claims and consumer sentiments data coming on a positive note. It touched a weekly high of 80.71 and closed at 80.58 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.58 54.31 54.34 54.34 Prev. day 0.0 -0.6 0.57 0.57

as on February 15, 2013 WoW 0.3 -1.4 1.11 1.11 MoM 0.6 -1.1 -0.67 -0.66 YoY 1.4 -9.3 9.96 9.95

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated around 1.4 percent on the back of countrys trade balance coming on a deficit note. Apart from that, unfavorable industrial production, weak domestic market sentiments, dollar demand from oil companies along with strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of countrys wholesale price index data coming on a positive note. It touched a weekly low of 54.34 and closed at 54.31 against dollar on Friday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.21,058.50 th crores ($3,951.*02 million) as on 15 February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.43,117.50 crores ($8,010.40 million) till 15th February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of dollar demand from oil companies coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of upbeat global market sentiments.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for February 18, 2013 Support 54.05/53.80 Resistance 54.50/54.60

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 18, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated marginally by 0.1 percent in the last week on the back of regions and major economies Gross Domestic Product (GDP) coming on unfavorable note. Additionally, strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments also acted as a negative factor for the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 2.16 billion Euros in December as against a surplus of 2.36 billion Euros a month ago. European Trade Balance was at surplus of 12 billion Euros in December from earlier surplus of 11 billion Euros a month ago. Further, fall in the currency was prevented on the back of optimistic speech from ECB President Mario Draghi that Spain is showing signs of positive results coupled with rise in regions industrial production. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.3305 and closed at 1.3362 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of European current account expected to come on a positive note. However, strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 72.10/71.80 72.50/72.70 valid for February 18, 2013

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3362 72.55 72.40 72.4 Prev. day 0.0 -0.8 0.61 0.62

as on February 15, 2013 WoW 0.0 -1.3 0.49 0.51 MoM 0.3 -0.4 -0.78 -0.77 11.42 11.43 YoY 1.7

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

Support

Resistance

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5516 84.306 84.16 Prev. day 0.15 0.93 0.50

as on February 15, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound depreciated around 1.8 percent taking cues from Retail Sales declined by 0.6 percent in January from earlier fall of 0.1 percent in December. Further, statement from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King that UKs inflation is likely to increase further in near term and will remain above 2 percent target for next two years also acted as a negative factor for the Sterling Pound. UKs Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) increased by 2.8 percent in February as against a rise of 0.2 percent in January. Additionally rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly low of 1.5461 and closed at 1.5516 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of house prices index data coming on a favorable note along with upbeat global market sentiments. However, strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 18, 2013 Support 83.80/83.50 Resistance 84.30/84.50

WoW -1.8 -0.44 -0.60

MoM -2.2 -3.98 -4.14

YoY -1.8 9.04 8.52

84.15

0.48

-0.61

-4.15

8.51

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 18, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of decline in countrys GDP and machinery tools orders. Japans Revised Industrial Production declined to 2.4 percent in December as against a rise of 2.5 percent a month ago. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Even favorable economic data consumer confidence, Tertiary Industry Activity along with Corporate Goods Price Index also prevented further fall in the currency. The Yen touched a weekly low of 94.42 and closed at 93.48 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for February 18, 2013 Support 58.40/58.10 Resistance
Source: Telequote

as on February 15, 2013 Last 93.48 0.5811 58.68 58.67 Prev day 0.7 0.16 1.05 1.05 WoW 0.9 0.54 0.86 0.83 MoM 3.8 -5.57 -4.87 -4.89 YoY 18.6 -7.47 -6.80 -6.83

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

58.80/59.0

Economic Indicators to be released on February 18, 2013

Indicator Current Account Bank Holiday ECB President Draghi Speaks Country Euro US Euro Time (IST) 2:30pm All Day 8:00pm Actual Forecast 15.3B Previous 14.8B Impact Medium High

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