Technical Analysis

Commodity Futures Weekly Report

Tuesday, February 12th, 2013
Volume 3 Issue 6

Highlights
S&P 500 E-mini maintains its upward bias with supports at 1490 / 1450 -70. While above these levels, longs on any pullbacks to support are favored as buying opportunities. Nasdaq-100 E-mini is attempting to break out of consolidation and longs are favored above 2760 for a move likely to the upper end of resistance at 2822. Falling back below 2750 would indicate a failure and target the opposite side of the consolidation down at 2700. Mini Russell 2000 continues to move higher with longs favored on any pullbacks to support at 891 or 900. Lower support is at 871 72 and only a drop below 865.4 would negate the bullish bias. Euro FX Longs remain favored above the trend line support targeting a retest of recent highs at 1.3700 with further resistance/target at 1.3885 in extension. Near-term price action is vulnerable to a further retracement down to 1.3285 should price fail to break above 1.3490. 30-yr Bonds continue to work lower and are in position to favor shorts while below 14413 targeting a move to the 14000 level. If price can regain 14413 and move higher, it would be back into an area of rotation and the bearish scenario would be put on hold. Light Sweet Crude Oil bounced from support at 94.95 96.25 targeting a continued move higher to 99.62 / 100.42 / 101.78. Only a drop below 94.95 would suggest the recent uptrend is transitioning to rotational or downward. Brent Crude remains bullish while above 115.00 .70. We favor longs while above this level targeting a move higher toward the next resistance / target at 119.39 - .43. Gold remains within a zone of rotation. Support remains at 1613 29 and shorts should look to take profits into this zone and reposition if price manages to push lower. Rotational longs are a consideration if support proves to be holding. Copper is respecting the upward sloping trendline support. A test of support at 3.65 - .70 is a spot to consider longs for a continuation of the uptrend and test of the 3.8395 highs. Wheat continues to move lower and make progress toward our target / support at 696 708. The bias will remain downward while below 756.
This report is copyrighted by i10Research. It is authorized for subscribers ONLY. Do not photocopy, otherwise copy or further distribute this information. i10Research strictly prohibits these practices. i10Research employs tracing technologies and, for the protection of all subscribers, will prosecute violators. Jeremy Berkovits, CMT(Compliance) (212) 879-0596 jberkovits@i10research.com David Truffelman(Analyst) (919) 267-3974 dtruffelman@i10research.com Aaron Uitenbroek(Analyst) (646) 535-1012 auitenbroek@i10research.com 1 .

Table of Contents

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Trade Update Summary E-mini S&P 500, E-mini Nasdaq-100 Mini Russell 2000, Euro FX 30-yr Bond, 10-yr Note 5-yr Note, 2-yr Note Light Sweet Crude Oil, Brent Crude Natural Gas, Heating Oil Gold, Silver Copper, Corn Soybeans, Soybean Oil Soybean Meal, Wheat Live Cattle, Lean Hogs About i10 Research Disclaimer

S&P 500 E-mini maintains its upward bias with supports at 1490 / 1450 -70. While above these levels, longs on any pullbacks to support are favored as buying opportunities.
ES Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Nasdaq-100 E-mini is attempting to break out of consolidation and longs are favored above 2760 for a move likely to the upper end of resistance at 2822. Falling back below 2750 would indicate a failure and target the opposite side of the consolidation down at 2700.
NQ Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Mini Russell 2000 continues to move higher with longs favored on any pullbacks to support at 891 or 900. Lower support is at 871 72 and only a drop below 865.4 would negate the bullish bias.
TF Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Euro FX remains in an uptrend since making lows at the end of July. Longs remain favored above the trend line support targeting a retest of recent highs at 1.3700 with further resistance/ t arget at 1.3885 in extension. Near-term failure to regain 1.3487 would target a retracement back to the lower ascending trend line around 1.3285.
6E Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

30-yr Bonds continue to work lower and are in position to favor shorts while below 14413 targeting a move to the 14000 level. If price can regain 14413 and move higher, it would be back into an area of rotation and the bearish scenario would be put on hold.
ZB Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

10-yr Notes remain rotational while above 130230. A break lower in earnest, below 130230, would favor short positions targeting 129000. A move over 132155 would instead favor longs.
ZN Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

5-yr Notes have probed below their long-standing range which is a bearish indication. Price is not likely to move down in earnest unless it can move below the recent 123320 low. While above this level, price is likely to continue to be two-sided.
ZF Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

2-yr Notes remain in consolidation between support at 110040 and resistance at 110095. There is higher resistance at 110115 and 110260. We expect continued two-sided action while within this long-standing range.
ZT Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Light Sweet Crude Oil bounced from support at 94.95 96.25 targeting a continued move higher to 99.62 / 100.42 / 101.78. Only a drop below 94.95 would suggest the recent uptrend is transitioning to rotational or downward.
CL Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Brent Crude remains bullish while above 115.00 .70. We favor longs while above this level targeting a move higher toward the next resistance / target at 119.39 - .43.
BRN March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Natural Gas is rotational while between 3.232 and 3.50. A move beyond either of these levels would favor a continuation to next support or resistance, which is 3.10 on the downside and 3.646 on the upside.
NG March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Heating Oil nearly touched our target at 3.26. Price is likely to become rotational or to pullback from this level. We favor taking profits on longs on tests to the middle 3.20s and repositioning on a decline to support at 3.15 - .168. A drop below 3.15 would favor shorts back toward 3.096.
HO Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Gold remains within a zone of rotation. Support remains at 1613 29 and shorts should look to take profits into this zone and reposition if price manages to push lower. Rotational longs are a consideration if support proves to be holding.
GC Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Silver broke lower from its triangle consolidation and if moving back to lower support at 29.86 30.39. Price is likely to turn rotational between this support and the recent break down area near 31.535.
SI Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Copper is respecting the upward sloping trendline support. A test of support at 3.65 - .70 is a spot to consider longs for a continuation of the uptrend and test of the 3.8395 highs.
HG Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Corn is in position to favor shorts while below 715 targeting a retest of the low at 678 and then lower toward 650. Only a move back above 715 would put the bearish bias on hold.
ZC March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

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Soybeans moved lower from resistance and reached our initial target at 1400 -1450 for the pullback. This zone between 1351 and 1508 remains an area of rotation. A move beyond one of the extremes would signal a larger directional move.
ZS Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Soybean Oil moved lower from the test of resistance at 53.31 and has now reached support at 50.85, which extends down to 49.12. This is a zone of rotational trade and two-sided price action is expected to develop.
ZL March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

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Soybean Meal moved aggressively lower, negating the bullish, upward bias. The near-term is pointed solidly downward and support at 405.5 could potentially lead to rotation back higher. A breach of this level would be a further bearish development and favor shorts for move to the 392.4 low and lower.
ZM Continuous Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Wheat continues to move lower and make progress toward our target / support at 696 708. The bias will remain downward while below 756.
ZW March Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

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Live Cattle is threatening a break below 129.35, which would favor shorts into 127.15. If price can hold above this support level, we would expect a continuation of the rotational price action back toward 133.7.
LE April Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

Lean Hogs broke below support and shorts are now favored targeting a move to next support at 84.025. A move back above 87 would put this bearish bias on hold.
HE April Contract Daily Bar Chart Volume-at-Price overlay

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Disclaimer & Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analysts responsible for the content of this report, Jeremy Berkovits, David Truffelman and Aaron Uitenbroek. The research analysts further certifies that he receives no compensation that is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained within this report. This publication does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of any transaction to buy or sell any securities or any instruments or any derivatives of the securities mentioned herein or to participate in any particular trading strategies. Although the information contained herein has been obtained from recognized services, and sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions, estimates or projections expressed in this report may make assumptions regarding economic, industry and political considerations and constitute current opinions, at the time of issuance, which are subject to change without notice. The products or securities mentioned in this report may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries. Their value and any income which they may produce may fluctuate and / or be adversely affected by interest rates, exchange rates and other factors. This information is being furnished to you for informational purposes only, and on the condition that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. Any recommendation contained in this report is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or inferred to be, investment advice, as such investments may not be suitable for all investors. When preparing this report, no consideration to ones investment objectives, risk tolerance or other individual factors was given; as such, as with all investments, purchase or sale of any securities mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. By virtue of this publication, neither the Firm nor any of its employees shall be responsible for any investment decisions. Before committing funds to ANY investment, an investor should seek professional advice. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice, or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to consult an independent tax professional for advice concerning their particular circumstances. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.

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