Understanding and Influencing in Cyberspace

Centre for Defence Enterprise call for proposals and expressions of interest Release Date: 22nd April 2010

Second Life

Twitter

Facebook

YouTube

World of Warcraft

APP store

This call for research aims to explore how human and social behaviour is manifest in the virtual worlds of cyberspace and how this behaviour might be shaped or influenced.
Nothing herein shall be relied upon as constituting a contract, agreement or representation that any contract shall be offered in accordance herewith. The MoD reserves the right, subject to the appropriate procurement regulations, to change without notice the basis of, or the procedures for, or to terminate the process at any time. Under no circumstances shall MoD incur any liability in respect thereof.

www.science.mod.uk www.dstl.gov.uk

Cyber & Influence S&T Centre candicdtenquiries@dstl.gov.uk

Understanding & Influencing in Cyberspace 1. Context The UK Government spends over 30Bn per year on Defence. The MOD invests over half of this budget on equipment, works and miscellaneous stores and services ranging from, for example, tanks, ships and aircraft through to tools, clothing and window cleaning. The Defence Industrial Strategy 1 describes MODs future military capability requirements and the interaction between MOD and the defence supplier base. This strategy stresses the value MOD places on engagement with a wider supplier base, including the academic sector and small companies, to stimulate innovation and exploit technological advance for the benefit of UK defence. A recent study 2 found that research and development (R&D) accounted for approximately 2.6Bn of the defence budget. Approximately 2.1Bn of this is part of the equipment and support programme. Approximately 500M is centrally managed as a Science, Innovation and Technology (SIT) programme. Figure 1 illustrates the transition from ideas through growth to demonstrators and on to application, and lists initiatives in place to support each stage.

Counter Competition of Ideas Grand Challenge Seed Corn Research International Research Collaboration Challenge Workshops Single Source Research Enterprise Growth Defence Technology Centres Consortia based Research and Technology Joint Funded Research and Technology Single Source Research and Technology

Terrorism Rapid Development of Solutions in Operations High Risk High Impact Demonstrators Equipment and Support for Operations

Risk Reduction Demonstrators

Advice / Assessments
Figure 1 - R&D Lifecycle Model ("4 box model")

The Defence Industrial Strategy and MOD Innovation Strategy 3 emphasises the need for flexibility, agility and responsiveness in developing new technology and concepts to meet emerging capability needs. The Defence Technology Plan, which was announced in Autumn 2007 and publicly launched in February 2009, outlines the priorities and direction that MoD requires a research programme to deliver. This call forms part of the Human & Social Influence Research Programme of the Cyber & Influence S&T Centre and will complement existing research activities identified within the Defence Technology Plan (DTP) under the Cyber & Influence RDO.

1 2

Defence White Paper: Defence Industrial Strategy Cm6697, published December 2005 Maximising Defence Capability Through R&D, published October 2007 3 Ministry of Defence Innovation Strategy, published December 2007

2. Problem space
Influence Activities affect the character or behaviour of an individual, group or organisation: they realise cognitive effects. Whilst activities in the physical domain will undoubtedly have such effects.the focus of Information Activities is in the information domain. Cyberspace, as part of the information dimension, is as much a part of the contemporary operating environment as the land, sea or air. Moreover, as identified by the National Security Strategy (NSS), it is the 6 most important new domain in national security of recent years. Its existence is undeniable, and has been for a period of decades, yet it remains a poorly understood domain which is all-too-often seen as the preserve of computer specialists.
5 4

Whilst Defence activities are known primarily for their physical effect upon the real world, there is increasing interest in their ability to create effects, by means of military influence activities, in the cognitive domain, often described in terms of the battle for hearts and minds. Whilst capabilities to analyse and understand human behaviour and attitudes do exist, these have focused on people in the physical world: there has been relatively little emphasis on how behaviour and attitudes are revealed, and can be shaped by, on-line activity within the new media. Cyberspace, social networking and virtual worlds have created new environments within which people can interact and therefore represent new and challenging areas of research for human and social scientists 7 and as a domain within which Influence can be exerted. Being able to affect human & social behaviour demands an understanding of how this behaviour is shaped, not simply by technology but by multiple factors - personality, motivation, attitudes, social identity, organisational and social norms and cultural practices as well as the wider context within which it occurs. Analysis of these factors enables the planning and evaluation (measuring effect) of influence efforts and potentially facilitates the forecasting of human and social behaviour in response to interventions of all types. In the first instance, the focus is on current manifestations of cyber or social media. Thus the creation of new virtual worlds, immersion technologies and devices are seen as being of secondary importance to the underpinning human & social science issues.

Individual Personality

Team / Group Information Environment

Context

Culture

This document provides an overview of some key human & social science challenges. It should be stressed that these are provided to shape and stimulate thought and should not constrain potential research ideas or approaches, nor should they be seen as exhaustive. Individual proposals should not seek to tackle all facets outlined here but should rather seek to make a contribution in a specific domain of interest.

4 5

Joint Doctrine Note 1/07 JDP 0-01, British Defence Doctrine (3rd Edition), (UK: MoD, 2008), para.240. 6 National Security Strategy: Annual Update 2009, (UK: Cabinet Office), Jun 09, para.46. 7 It is assumed that a wide range of human and social science disciplines are needed: psychology, sociology, anthropology, etc.

3. Specific areas of interest This CDE call is looking for innovative proposals that when combined will span the 3 specific areas and the 3 foci (audiences) shown below:

FOCUS AREAS
UNDERPINNING HUMAN & SOCIAL SCIENCE

INDIVIDUAL

TEAM / GROUP

WIDER AUDIENCE

What is the relationship between online and off-line human and social behaviour? Are online personae real or authentic? In what way? How much does the online self reveal about the personality of the real self? INFORMATION GATHERING & ANALYSIS Do group & social norms evolve online in the same way as in the real world? Can the loose ties of connected individuals online transition into tightly bonded groups? How does social identity and social influence operate online? Are protest or neighbourhood watch groups different on-line? Will people participate more online and why?

How do we observe and analyse online human and social behaviour? How to study online groups? Can we use existing social media / games or will we need to develop our own? Is online group activity sufficient or does it necessarily lead to off-line activity? How can we use new media to better assess public opinion and attitudes? What defines key voices or opinion formers on-line? What analyses might support this identification?

How can we verify the identity & credibility of individuals that have only virtual presence? Do linguistic analysis techniques apply on-line, i.e. in Texts, on Twitter?

How do we engage with, shape or influence human and social behaviour in cyberspace? What causes online groups to lose coherence, change goals, fragment? How does a newcomer establish credibility / rapport with a virtual group? How can social marketing go wrong? Can we learn from others mistakes? How can we use immersive games as a channel for our messages?

ENGAGEMENT, PERSUASION, INFLUENCE

How does communications synchronicity impact on the development of online interpersonal relationships? How is trust created / lost?

There is also interest in the procedural and methodological issues inherent in the cyber domain. These include: How do we deal with problems of data and research / experimentation in this domain? Can we reliably use second life or other virtual worlds as experimental vehicles? What ethical / legal issues are there in this area as an experimental area?

4.

Getting involved

Proposals for the Understanding & Influencing in Cyberspace programme are invited from industry and academia. Proposals in response to this call should be submitted via the CDE process. Proposals should be for a maximum duration of twelve months and can be for full or partial MoD funding. There is no cap on the value of proposals but it is more likely that a larger number of lower value proposals (20k - 50k) will be funded than a smaller number of higher value proposals. Proposals for the first stage of a larger project will be considered provided that a clear indication of the timeline and scope of the complete project is included. Assessment of the proposals will be conducted using the PAF (Performance Assessment Framework). It is important for suppliers to understand that the Understanding & Influencing in Cyberspace programme is focussed on looking at innovative concepts, underpinned by human sciences and focused on delivering practical solutions. Suppliers are urged to submit their best ideas, regardless of how unusual or outrageous they may at first appear. Before submitting a proposal you should read carefully the guidance on the CDE website. In particular you should note that the standard terms and conditions of the CDE must be unequivocally accepted in order for a proposal to be considered. In order to distinguish responses to this call the title of proposals should start with the words Cyber Influence proposal and, if possible, should identify which sub-area they are aimed at addressing. The timeline for CDE proposals is as follows: 22 April 2010 7 June 2010 21 June 2010 5 July 2010 CDE seminar: Call opens. Call closes. Decision Conference takes place. Target for contract placement

We are happy to informally discuss your proposal prior to submission. Detailed queries should be addressed to: Cyber & Influence S&T Centre Porton Down Salisbury Wiltshire SP4 0JQ 01980 658889 candicdtenquiries@dstl.gov.uk