India Residential Property Market Overview - Feb 2013

Residential Property Market Overview
INDIA
QUARTERLY UPDATE | FEBRUARY | 2013
Accelerating success.
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential
reseArch & forecAst report IndIA resIdentIAL mArket
RESEARCh & foRECAST REpoRT SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
MACRo ECoNoMIC ovERvIEW

Gdp growth in the third quarter (July to september) of 2012 was 5.3%, contracted marginally from the previous quarters 5.5%. the headline inflation based on the whole sale price index edged down to 6.95% for the month of January 2013, as compared to 7.18% in december 2012. the reserve Bank of India reduced the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points from 8.00% to 7.75% in Jan 2013 to induce immediate liquidity in the market. following suit, a few banks such as sBI and hdfc marginally reduced their home loan rates by 5 to 10 basis points. ECoNoMIC BARoMETER
Jan-12 repo rAte reVerse repo rAte crr InfLAtIon home LoAn rAte
1
Jan-13 7.75% 6.75% 4.00% 6.95% 10.00%
8.50% 7.50% 5.50% 6.89% 11.00%
this quarter, the reserve bank of India allowed electronic commercial Borrowing (ecB) for lowcost affordable housing projects as a permissible end-use under the approval route. now not only, developers and builders can avail ecB for low-cost affordable housing projects, but housing finance companies (hfcs) and national housing Board (nhB) can also avail of ecB for financing prospective owners of low-cost affordable housing units. the premium residential markets in India have shown an upward trend, with capital values increasing in the range of 5 to 10% QoQ. notwithstanding the current economic difficulties, the mid-segment residential market will continue to remain active in markets like Bangalore, pune, chennai and noIdA due to their favourable affordability quotient. meanwhile, markets like those in mumbai, delhi and Gurgaon will continue to fetch premium value in the luxury segment.
RETURN oN ALTERNATIvE INvESTMENTS

Jan-12 Jan-13 YoY % Change GoLd sILVer fIxed deposIt eQUItY reALtY Index
3 2
ECoNoMIC INDICAToRS
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0
27,428 51,500 9.25% 16,189 1,574
30,714 58,443 8.50% 19,818 2,245
11.98% 13.48% -8.11% 22.42%

In percentage
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0
42.63%
Jun 08
Jul08
sep08
may11
Jul 11
sep 11
may09
may 10
nov 11
Jul09
Jul10
sep10
may12
Jul 12
sep 12
mar 08
may08
nov 08
Jan 09
mar 09
sep 09
nov 12
nov09
Jan 11
mar 11
Jan10
mar10
nov10
Jan 12
mar 12
-1.0
repo rate
reverse repo rate
cash reserve ratio
Wholesale price Index
Source: Goverment of India, Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
Jan 13
SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan upto INR 30 Lakhs 2 SBI Fixed Deposit rate for a period of more than one year and amount below INR 1 Crore 3 Realty Index is a free float weighted index, comprised of real estate development companies in the BSE-500 Index.
1
2.0 1.0 0.0
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential MUMBAI

In 4Q 2012, mumbais residential market witnessed an increase in launches of new premium residential projects in locations like Wadala, Andheri and chembur micro-markets priced in the range of Inr 9,700 to 26,500 per sq ft. demand for residential properties from investors as well as end-users picked up this quarter due to the long festive season. however, construction activities remained slow resulting in no major new supply during the surveyed quarter.
mUmBAI
80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000
AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE RANGE
Inr per sq.ft.
20000 10000 malabar hill, Altamount road, carmichael road colaba, cuffe parade khar santacruz prabhadevi Andheri Worli 1Q2013f
Worli
Worli
Juhu
Breach candy, napeansea road, peddar road
CITY offICE BARoMETER

4Q 2012
capital Value rental Value new project construction pace
1Q 2013
capital values for prime residential properties increased modestly across the city in the range of 1-3% QoQ. however locations such as Worli, khar, santacruz, Andheri and powai remained stable due to the large supply.
Inr per sq.ft. per month
AvERAGE RENTAL vALUE

malabar hill, Altamount road, carmichael road 200 powai 150 100 Andheri 50 0 Juhu Breach candy, napeansea road, peddar road
Bandra
colaba, cuffe parade
rental values of premium residential properties remained stable in almost all of the micromarkets, except Bandra and khar, where a marginal increase was noticed in rents. the state Government of maharashtra approved a new policy for special township projects spread across 100 acres or more. the new policy mandates that such projects reserve 25% of the land for economic activities and 20% for economically Weaker sections (eWs). Also it has increased the ready reckoner rates by 18-20% across the city. coLLIers VIeW: the primary sales market in mumbai picked up during the last quarter. A significant number of this demand came from end users due to attractive price points however, investors activity was overall limited due to longer exit periods. secondary sales market remained curbed due to high price points. We anticipate, increased activity in primary sales market in the coming quarters with numerous new launches in both luxury and mid housing segment in the 2/3 Bhk typology.
INvESTMENT oppoURTUNITIES
Micro Market thane-kalyan navi mumbai Virar- Boisar ongoing price (p.S.f) 4,000 - 8,000 3,500 - 7,500 3,000 - 6,000
santacruz
prabhadevi
khar
Bandra
AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE TRENDS

75000 forecast
60000 55000
Note: Ongoing Price (P.S.F): Indicative asking price for premium residential properties per sq.ft.
Inr per sq.ft.
45000 35000
25000
15000 5000 3Q2013f 3Q2008 3Q2009 3Q2010 3Q2011 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2008 3Q2012 1Q2011 1Q2012
Breach candy, napeansea road, peddar road powai
khar prabhadevi Juhu
colaba, cuffe parade Bandra
Andheri
santacruz malabar hill, Altamount road, carmichael road
Note: Average Capital/Rental Value Range: Indicative asking price for premium residential properties on per sq.ft. basis.
KeY neW PrOJeCts proJect nAme

elisium elina proxima serenity LocAtIon Wadala saki naka Andheri kurla road chembur deVeLoper nAme Lodha Group runwal Group the dudhwala Group Godrej properties tentAtIVe possessIon* 4Q 2017 4Q 2014 4Q 2016 4Q 2015 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 16,900 9,750 11,750 26,400
Note: * As mentioned by developer ** Base selling price as quoted by developer
CoLLIERS INTERNATIoNAL |
powai
p. 3
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential DELhI

during 4Q 2012, limited supply was added to the citys premium residential inventory; only few small-scale redevelopment residential projects were ready for possession in locations such as Vasant Vihar, Anand niketan and shanti niketan. In 4Q 2012, capital values for premium residential properties remained stable in all of the micro-markets. rental values for premium residential properties appreciated by 4% QoQ in the prithviraj road, Aurangzeb road, Golf Links, Jor Bagh and sunder nagar micromarkets. however, rents in micro-markets like Anand niketan, Vasant Vihar, friends colony, maharani Bagh, panchashila, Anandlok, niti Bagh and sdA declined in the range of 2-4% QoQ. the Urban development ministry has asked the ddA (delhi development Authority) to increase the fAr (floor Area ratio) for the eWs projects from 200 to 400. this measure has been proposed with an aim to reduce the affordable housing shortage in the capital; especially in the eWs segment. In this quarter, the delhi state Government has also revised the minimum circle rates in category A colonies by 200%, category B by 50%, categories c, d, and e by 25%, categories f and G by 25% and category h by 15%. the increase in the circle rate will help to increase transparency in the market by reducing the gap between the circle rate and the market value. coLLIers VIeW: the new master plan for delhi will facilitate the creation of new sub-cities within delhi by unlocking around 60,000 hectares of land for development. the increase in fAr (floor Area ratio) will help to boost residential real estate activity primarily in the eWs and LIG sections.
Inr per sq.ft. per month 115000 100000 85000 Inr per sq.ft. 70000 55000 40000 25000 10000 panchashila, Anandlok, niti Bagh, sdA friends colony, maharani Bagh chanakya puri Golf Links, Jor Bagh, sunder nagar prithviraj road, Aurangzeb road Greater kailash I & II, south extension chanakya puri shanti niketan, Westend panchashila, Anandlok, niti Bagh, sdA 3Q2012 1Q2013f Anand niketan, Vasant Vihar forecast 3Q2013f shanti niketan, Westend 200 160 120 80 40 Greater kailash I & II, south extension 0 Golf Links, Jor Bagh, sunder nagar 3Q2010 1Q2010
deLhI

prithviraj road, Aurangzeb road Anand niketan, Vasant Vihar

4Q 2012
1Q 2013
friends colony, maharani Bagh

100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 Inr per sq.ft. 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2008
1Q2011
Golf Links, Jor Bagh, sunder nagar chanakya puri panchashila, Anandlok, niti Bagh, sdA Greater kailash I & II, south extension
3Q2009
3Q2011
prithviraj road, Aurangzeb road shanti niketan, Westend friends colony, maharani Bagh Anand niketan, Vasant Vihar
KeY OnGOinG PrOJeCts proJect nAme

capital Greens castewood kings court Queens court Winter hills LocAtIon shivaji marg okhla Greater kailash - II Greater kailash- II dwaraka morh deVeLoper nAme dLf Ltd. Indiabulls Ltd. dLf Ltd. dLf Ltd. Umang realtech tentAtIVe possessIon* 2Q 2015 4Q 2013 1Q 2015 1Q 2015 4Q 2013 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 14,000 12,800 36,000 36,000 8,750
p. 4
| CoLLIERS INTERNATIoNAL
1Q2012
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential GURGAoN

during 4Q 2012, a number of premium projects/ parts of projects were launched in Gurgaon. most of these projects were launched in the price rangeof Inr 5,500 to 10,000 per sqft in 3/4 Bhk typology. dwarka expressway remained the most active market; other upcoming residential locations, like sohna and Golf course extension road, witnessed limited new launches. healthy demand was noticed during the surveyed quarter, and newly-launched projects witnessed high absorption despite an increased investment horizon. But most of this demand was investor driven and the end-users kept themselves at bay due to limited options in mid-segment housing and unaffordable prices. construction activities remain healthy, resulting in the completion of numerous residential projects like tata raisina by tata Group and palm drive by emaar mGf, both on Golf course extension road; and La Lagoon and Verandas by salcon Group both on Golf course road. capital values in the secondary sales market witnessed marginal appreciation in the range of 2 to 5% QoQ in locations like dLf phase I, sushant Lok, nh8, etc. emerging locations like dwarka expressway, new Gurgaon, pataudi road, Golf course extension road, etc. observed an increase in the range of 5 to 10% QoQ. coLLIers VIeW: the Gurgaon residential market witnessed an increase in resale inventory stock. end-users activity remained restricted, this is primarily due to an increase in prices and less options available for midsegment housing. In the near term, micromarkets such as dwarka expressway, pataudi road, sohna road and Golf course extension road will continue to witness interest from investors; however, prices are expected to remain more or less at the same levels.
Imperial Garden kalistaa michael schumacher World tower oyster Grande triumph Woodshire LocAtIon sector 102 sector 84 sector 109 sector 102 sector 104 sector 107 deVeLoper nAme emaar mGf spaze towers homestead Adani Group Ats Group m3m Group tentAtIVe possessIon* 4Q 2016 4Q 2015 4Q 2016 4Q 2016 4Q 2016 4Q 2016 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 6,500 7,080 12,000 - 14,000 5,500 7,500 6,250
Inr per sq.ft. per month 40000 35000 30000 Inr per sq.ft. 20000
15000 10000 5000
0 Golf course road sohna road & ext sushant Lok dLf phase I nh - 8 sohna road & ext forecast 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2Q2012 1Q2013f 2Q2013f 3Q2013f
GUrGAon

Golf course road 80 60 40 nh - 8 20 0

4Q 2012
1Q 2013
Micro Market Golf course extension road sohna extension pataudi road new Gurgaon ongoing price (p.S.f) 7,500 - 8,500 5,000 - 6,500 4,500 - 5,500 3,500 - 4,500
sushant Lok
dLf phase I

18000
Inr per sq.ft.
4Q2008
1Q2009 2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
2Q2010
2Q2011
nh-8 Golf course road dLf phase I
sohna road & ext sushant Lok
p. 5
4Q2013f
4Q2010
3Q2008
3Q2010
1Q2010
1Q2010
4Q2012
3Q2011
3Q2012
1Q2011
1Q2012
4Q2011
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential NoIDA

there has been a decrease in new project launches this quarter as compared to the previous three quarters. most of the new launches were in the form of new towers at existing projects. the prices at newlylaunched projects remained resilient due to consistent demand from end-users as well as investors, despite price correction speculation. most of the new projects were launched in the price range of Inr 4,000 to 5,000 psf. fewer projects witnessed completion during the quarter, including Azure tower34 pavilion in sector 39 by supertech Ltd. and phase I in Lotus Boulevard in sector 100 by 3c Universal Ltd.. capital values in the secondary sales market remained stable in almost all micro-markets. however, secondary sales prices in the projects, which are expected to see completion in the near future, witnessed an appreciation in the range of 5 to 10% QoQ as they are preferred by end-users due to amenities offered in the form of club houses, parking, swimming pools, Wi-fi connectivity, etc. rental values showed marginal appreciation in the luxury segment due to limited supply. however, those in the mid-range segment remained stable. coLLIers VIeW: In the medium term, the noIdA residential market will witness increased absorption due to increasing interest from end-users as well as investors. the market will remain active among endusers primarily due its affordability quotient as compared to its counter part micro-markets, such as Gurgaon, where fewer options are available to cater to increasing demand from the mid-range segment. moreover, a decrease in interest rates will boost the investment confidence of end-users. prices are expected to see moderate appreciation in view of the large unsold inventory and upcoming new project launches.
20000 17000
Inr per sq.ft.
14000
11000
8000
5000
sector 61, 62., 63
sector 50
sector 92/93
sector 44
2000
noIdA

sector 44 40 30 Inr per sq.ft. per month 20 sector 50 10 0

4Q 2012
1Q 2013
sector 28, 29, 30
Micro Market noIdA expressway sector 72 - 78 sector 117 - 121 ongoing price (p.S.f) 3,800 - 5,500 4,500 - 5,800 4,000 - 5,000
sector 92/93
sector 61, 62., 63

12000 forecast
10000
8000
Inr per sq.ft.
6000
4000
2000
0 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2010 4Q2010 3Q2012 4Q2011 1Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013f 2Q2013f 3Q2013f 4Q2013f
sector 61,62,63 sector 92 / 93
sector 50 sector 28,29,30 sector 44

BrYs Buzz floraville ritz chateaux Wave Amore Wave trucia LocAtIon sector 150 sector 137 sector 74 sector 32 sector 25A deVeLoper nAme Brys Group paramount Group supertech Ltd. Wave Infratech Wave Infratech tentAtIVe possessIon* 4Q 2016 4Q 2014 4Q 2016 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 10,500 5,400 14,990 - 16,990 6,770 - 6,860 6,770 - 6,860
p. 6
sector 28, 29, 30
india | FEB 2013 | REsIDENTIAL ChENNAI

In 4Q 2012, numerous new projects were launched in the city. Locations like old mahabalipuram road (omr), poonamallee, chromepet and kolapakkam reckoned maximum activities in terms of launches. most of these projects were priced in the range of Inr 2,400 to 5,000 per sqft. during the surveyed quarter, a number of small residential projects/ phases of projects were completed, in micro-markets like Boat club road, thiruvanmiyur, pallavaram, Ayyappanthangal, singaperumalkoil, Avadi and Velachery. capital values in the secondary sales market for premium residential properties appreciated in the range of 2-7% QoQ in micro-markets like Boat club, Besant nagar, Adyar and siruseri, kazipattur. this was primarily because the new projects were being launched at a higher price and there was an increase in the guideline values in these areas. the residential leasing market gathered momentum, however, rents remained stable across the city for premium residential properties. the landlords have started offering attractive terms on leases, as they realize that companies have become very stringent with their residential budgets. the chennai housing and Urban development Authority has allowed an fsI exemption for multi-level parking above ground in residential projects. coLLIers VIeW: the evolving corridors such as rajiv Gandhi salai and Velachery will see an increase in capital values due to demand from the mid end segment. With upcoming infrastructure development in areas such as perungudi, sholinagallur, Adyar, teynampet, Valsaravakkam will witness high demand.
30000 27000 24000 Inr per sq.ft. 21000 18000 15000 12000 9000 6000 3000 0 Anna nagar Velachery Adyar Beasant nagar t nagar nungambakkam sholinganallur Adyar 1Q2013f
t nagar Adyar
chennAI

Boat club 75 siruseri/ kazipattur 60 45 Inr per sq.ft. per month 30 sholinganallur 15 0 nungambakkam

4Q 2012
1Q 2013
Alwarpet / r A puram
Anna nagar
Velachery
Micro Market Velachery sholinganallur siruseri/ kazipattur ongoing price (p.S.f) 5,000 - 7,000 3,500 - 4,200 2,500 - 3,900
Alwarpet / r A puram t nagar
Beasant nagar

25000 forecast
21000
17000
13000 Inr per sq.ft.
9000
5000
3Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2010
3Q2012
1000 1Q2008
1Q2011
Boat club sholinganallur siruseri/ kazipattur Velachery
Alwarpet / r A puram Beasant nagar nugambakkam Anna nagar

Abov fairways shine VGn hazel pavilion LocAtIon kazhipattur, omr kolapakkam kazhipattur, omr off poonamallee thalambur, omr deVeLoper nAme Akshaya homes sumanth & co radiance realty VGn developers casa Grande tentAtIVe possessIon* 4Q 2015 1Q 2014 2Q 2015 4Q 2016 4Q 2015 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 10,400 5,000 3,400 3,000 3,000
3Q2013f
3Q2009
1Q2010
3Q2011
1Q2012
siruseri/ kazipattur
Boat club
p. 7
INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential BENGALURU (BANGALoRE)

during 4Q 2012, developers continued to launch premium residential projects. micromarkets like thanisandra, hebbal and hennur road were the preferred locations for new residential development. demand was driven by both investors and end-users due to high affordability and high rental yield. the prices at newly-launched projects have increased and most of the premium projects were priced in the range of Inr 4,000 to 7,000 per sq ft. In the same quarter, the city witnessed completion of various projects/ parts of projects including Jains Altura by Jain heights & structures, and LGcL Ashlar by LGcL, both located at sarjapur road; Legacy caldera by Legacy Group at cunningham road; sobha cinnamon by sobha developers at haralur road; prestige oasis by prestige Group at doddaballapur road; and skylark Arcadia by skylark at Whitefield. capital values in the secondary sales markets have witnessed an increase in the range of 5-6% QoQ in central locations cooke town and Jayanagar due to limited supply. All other micro-markets were remained stable due to large available supply in the pipeline. rents in micro-markets such as Whitefield, koramangala, central, cooke town and Airport road increased in the range of 2-5% QoQ. most of the demand in this segment comes from employees of the It/Ites sector. colliers View: the Bangalore residential market will continue to remain active due to its favourable affordability quotient and increasing investor interest. recently, Bangalore caught the interest of a number of Grade A developers which will result in more options for buyer and control over prices. We anticipate that residential prices will increase moderately in the near future inspite of the huge supply in the pipeline.
Bhartiya city Brigade caladium Brigade Altamont corinth temple tree LocAtIon thanisandra main road hebbal off hennur road off hennur road hennur road deVeLoper nAme Bhartiya Brigade Group Brigade Group ezzy Group expat Group tentAtIVe possessIon* 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 4Q 2016 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 5,000 7,000 4,300 6,500 3,000
25000 30000 26000
22000 Inr per sq.ft. 18000
14000
10000 6000
2000 Indiranagar Jayanagar Whitefield (Appts) palace orchard Airport road cooke town Bannerghatta road central koramangala Yelahanka forecast 1Q2013f 2Q2013f 3Q2013f 4Q2013f
BenGALUrU

central 80 Yelahanka 60 40 Inr per sq.ft. per month Whitefield (Appts) 20 0 Jayanagar cooke town

4Q 2012
1Q 2013
koramangala
palace orchard
Micro Market Airport road Bannerghatta road Whitefield Yelahanka ongoing price (p.S.f) 5,000 - 6,000 4,200 - 6,000 4,400 - 6,700 3,800 - 6,000
Bannerghatta road Indiranagar
Airport road
20000
Inr per sq.ft.
15000
10000
5000
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
2Q2009
4Q2009
central Indiranagar Yelahanka koramangala
cooke town Airport road Whitefield
Jayanagar Bannerghatta road palace orchard
p. 8
4Q2012
INDIA | FEB 2013 | resiedential koLkATA

In 4Q 2012, the kolkata premium residential market saw few launches as a number of developers are awaiting approvals from the authorities for new project launches. suburban residential micro-markets like topsia, tangra, Bishnupur and new town witnessed most of these new launches. most of these projects were launched in the mid-range, priced from Inr 2,500 to 5,500 per sq ft. during 4Q 2012, developers put their project construction work on the fast track, resulting in the completion of various projects/ phases of the projects including meena elegant by Gm Group at kaikhali; Ideal heights phase I by Ideal Group at sealdah and shrestha Garden phase II by shreshta construction pvt. Ltd at kalipark.
Inr per sq.ft. per month 17000 15000 13000 Inr per sq.ft. 11000 9000 7000 5000 3000 1000 Bhawanipur Loudon street new town rajarhat forecast 1Q2013f 2Q2013f 3Q2013f tollygunge pA shah road Ballygunge Alipore Behela salt Lake em Bypass VIp road 3Q2012 4Q2012
koLkAtA

Bhawanipur new town rajarhat 40 30 20 10 0 em Bypass Alipore pA shah road

4Q 2012
1Q 2013
VIp road
tollygunge
Micro Market tollygunge Behela salt Lake em Bypass new town -rajarhat ongoing price (p.S.f) 3,600 - 4,800 2,900 - 3,700 4,000 - 5,500 4,000 - 7,000 3,200 - 4,600
the capital values in the premium residential market picked up this quarter across micromarkets in the range of 2-8% QoQ. however, micro-markets like pA shah road, tollygunge, salt Lake em Bypass and VIp road remained stable due to the abundant supply. rental values remained stable due to subdued commercial market sentiments in the city. Locations like the pA shah road, Alipore, Loudon street, Ballygunge, em Bypass and new town-rajarhat micro-markets reflected a marginal decline due to low demand and supply availability in these locations. coLLIers VIeW: residential sales volume in peripheral locations is likely to increase in coming quarters due to the affordability factor, infrastructure development and a decrease in interest rates. A few high-end projects are expected to be launched during the first half of the year. capital and rental values are expected to remain stable across the city, while southern kolkata may see a marginal increase due to limited availability of properties.
salt Lake
Behela
Ballygunge
Loudon street

16000
14000 12000 10000 Inr per sq.ft. 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2009 3Q2009 1Q2011 4Q2008 2Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 4Q2013f
Bhawanipur Behela em Bypass Ballygunge
Alipore VIp road salt Lake Loudon road
tollygunge p A shah road new town - rajarhat

Alcove regency Altius Lavanya rajat Boulevard sampoorna LocAtIon topsia topsia Bishnupur tangra new town, rajarhat deVeLoper nAme Alcove Group prudent Infra realty & space Group orchid Grup rajat Group Bengal dcL tentAtIVe possessIon* 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 4Q 2015 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 7,500 8,200 2,600 5,200 3,600 - 3,800
p. 9
INDIA | FEB 2013 | resiedential pUNE

In 4Q 2012, numerous residential projects were launched in locations like kalyani nagar, Baner, hadapsar, kharadi, Bavdhan, nIBm, Wakad and talegaon. new launches are priced between Inr 3,000-5,000 per sqft with the exception of high-end luxury projects located in kalyani nagar, hadapsar and Baner priced at Inr 8,000-12,000 per sq ft. this quarter witnessed fairly high construction activity enabling under-construction projects to welcome ready-possession units and registering a few completed projects mainly located in Baner, Bavdhan and chinchwad, priced between Inr 4,000-7,000 per sq ft. capital prices in pune registered stable growth with an upward trend due to numerous launches of luxury residential projects as well as rapid growth in western and southern areas. prices in areas such as Boat club road, camp, deccan, kalyani nagar, Viman nagar, kharadi, nIBm, Undri and kondhwa registered an increase of 6-7% QoQ from the previous quarter. during 4Q 2012, rental values remained stable in almost all of the micro-markets in pune due to stable demand, although minor fluctuations were registered in prime and developing areas. VIeW: With developing coLLIers infrastructure most preferred living areas in pune remain on the eastern and western sides. nevertheless, the southern and northern zones are quickly picking up as well in terms of new launches and underconstruction developments, particularly in areas such as kothrud, talegaon, etc. In terms of sales activity, medium-priced projects quoting from Inr 3,000 - 5,000 per sq ft. tend to be absorbed faster due to affordability in comparison with the slow sales of high-end projects quoting above Inr 7,000 per sq ft.
15000 13000 11000 9000
Inr per sq.ft.
7000 5000 3000 1000 kalyani nagar/Viman nagar/kharadi Bhawanipur magarpatta/hadapsar nIBm/Undri/kondhwa pimpri/chinchwad/ chakan forecast 2Q2012f 3Q2012f 4Q2012f deccan/camp/ Boat club Baner/hinjewadi/ Wakad/pashan kothrud/Bavdhan/ Wajre
pUne

kalyani nagar/ Viman nagar/kharadi Bhawanipur 30 pimpri/chinchwad/ chakan Inr per sq.ft. per month 25 20 15 10 5 0 nIBm/Undri/ kondhwa deccan/camp/Boat club

4Q 2012
1Q 2013
magarpatta/hadapsar
Micro Market kalyani nagar/Viman nagar/kharadi Baner/hinjewadi/Wakad/ pashan kothrud/Bavdhan/Wajre nIBm/Undri/kondhwa pimpri/chinchwad/chakan ongoing price (p.S.f) 5,000 - 12,000 3,800 - 6,000 3,800 - 6,000 3,800 - 5,000 2,500 - 4,500
kothrud/ Bavdhan/ Wajre
Baner/hinjewadi/Wakad/pashan

11000 10000 9000 8000 Inr per sq.ft. 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
kalyani nagar/Viman nagar/kharadi magarpatta/hadpsar kothrud/Bavdhan/Wajre
deccan/camp/Boat club/central pune Baner/hinjewadi/Wakad/pashan/Balewadi nIBm/Undri/kondhwa

Amanora Gateway towers 1 dB Golf Links Gagan Unnati Gagan krishnagan nyati equatorial park Grandeur LocAtIon hadapsar kalyani nagar kondhwa road kondhwa road Bavdhan Baner deVeLoper nAme city corporation dB realty Gagan properties Gagan properties the nyati Builders pvt. Ltd pride Group tentAtIVe possessIon* 1Q 2017 4Q 2014 4Q 2014 4Q 2014 2Q 2015 4Q 2015 rAte (per sQ.ft.)** 8,000 -11,000 12,000 6,000 5,150 5,000 7,250
p. 10
1Q2012f
4Q2010
4Q2012
india | FEB 2013 | REsIDENTIAL | sUBMARkETs
RESIDENTIAL SUBMARkETS
Mumbai the high-end residential real estate markets in mumbai include malabar hill, Altamount road, carmichael road, napean sea road, Breach candy, colaba, cuffe parade, prabhadevi, Worli, Bandra, khar, santacruz, Juhu and powai. delhi the prime residential areas in delhi are in the south region and comprise Vasant Vihar, Westend, shanti niketan, Anand niketan and central delhi locations. these areas enjoy proximity to embassies, the airport and central commercial areas - connaught place. Gurgaon the prime residential locations of Gurgaon include Golf course road, dLf phase I, sushant Lok and sohna road. the delhi- Jaipur highway (nh-8) is also emerging as a preferred residential location owing to its proximity to the national capital. nOida noIdA premium residential market is comprised of sectors 44, 50, 92, 61, 62, 63 , 28, 29, 30 and taj express highway. Chennai the prime residential areas in chennai include thiruvanmiyur, Valmiki nagar and Besant nagar, r.A puram, mylapore and Adyar in south chennai, nungambakkam, chetpet, poes Garden, egmore, Alwarpet, t. nagar in central chennai; and Anna nagar, kilpauk in north West chennai. Bengaluru (BanGalOre) the residential market of Bengaluru comprises both apartments and independent residences. currently, high-end residential developments are mainly concentrated along the cBd, and eastern and south precincts of the city. recently, northern Bengaluru has also witnessed a spree of realty activity facilitated by the new International Airport at devanhalli. Kolkata the prime residential areas in kolkata include pA shah road, tollygunge and Bhawanipur in south kolkata, Alipore and Behala in south-west kolkata, Loudon street and Ballygunge in central kolkata; and salt Lake, em Bypass and VIp road in north kolkata. Pune the prime residential areas in pune include kalyani nagar, Viman nagar, Boat club road, nIBm road, magarpatta, hadapsar, koregaon park. recently, increased activities has been witnessed in pimpri-chinchwad, Baner-pashan and kondhwa.
CITY BARoMETERS
Increasing as compared to previous quarter decreasing as compared to previous quarter remained stable from previous quarter
p. 11
india | FEB 2013

colliers International (India) provides property services to property Investors and occupiers. We deliver customised service solutions utilising local and global knowledge in partnership with our clients via our property Investment and occupier service lines. these service lines include - office services, facility management, project management, residential services, Investment services and Valuation & Advisory services. www.colliers.com/india for national residential services related queries please contact: poonam mahtani, national director residential services & knowledge systems poonam.mahtani@colliers.com tel: +91 22 4050 4551 Mumbai : Vaibhav kumar, office director Vaibhav.kumar@colliers.com 31/A, 3rd floor, film center, 68, tardeo road, mumbai, India - 400 034. tel : +91 22 4050 4527, fax : +91 22 2351 4272 522 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United states: 147 canada: 37 Latin America: 19 Asia pacific: 201 emeA: 118 $1.8 billion in annual revenue 2.55 billion square feet under management over 12,300 + professionals
aUtHOrs
amit Oberoi MriCs national director, Valuation & Advisory; research email: Amit.oberoi@colliers.com surabhi arora MriCs Associate director, research email: surabhi.arora@colliers.com sachin sharma Assistant manager, research email: sachin.sharma@colliers.com Heliana Mano Assistant manager, research email: heliana.mano@colliers.com for general queries and feedback : India.research@colliers.com tel: +91 124 456 7580
delhi nCr : Ajay rakheja, office director Ajay.rakheja@colliers.com new delhi : statesman house, 4th floor, Barakhamba road, connaught place, new delhi, India - 110 001 tel : +91 11 3044 6423, fax : +91 11 3044 6500 Gurgaon : technopolis Building, 1st floor, dLf Golf course main road, sector 54, Gurgaon, India - 122 002 tel : +91 124 456 7500, fax : +91 124 456 7502 Bengaluru : Goutam chakraborthy, office director Goutam.chakraborthy@colliers.com prestige Garnet, Level 2, Unit no.201/202, 36 Ulsoor road, Bengaluru, India - 560 042 tel : +91 80 4079 5500, fax : +91 80 4112 3131 Pune : suresh castellino, office director suresh.castellino@colliers.com hotel Le meridian, 101, r.B.m. road, pune, India - 411 001 tel : +91 20 4120 6438, fax : +91 20 4120 6434 : kaushik reddy, office director kaushik.reddy@colliers.com heavitree complex, Unit 1c, 1st floor, 23, spurtank road, chetpet, chennai, India - 600 031 tel : +91 44 2836 1064, fax : +91 44 2836 1377 : soumya mukherjee , office director soumya.mukherjee@colliers.com Infinity Business centre, Infinity Benchmark, room no 13, Level 18, plot G - 1, Block ep & Gp, salt Lake sector V, kolkata - 700 091 West Bengal, India tel : +91 33 2357 6501 , fax : +91 33 2357 6502
Chennai
Kolkata
this report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com/India. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the research department at the number indicated above. this document has been prepared by colliers International for advertising and general information only. colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. copyright 2012 - 2013 All rights reserved.
recent reports :
GLoBAL retAIL
MID-YEAR 2012 | RETAIL
IndIA offIce
IndIA resIdentIAL
ApAc offIce
GLoBAL retAIL
MID-YEAR 2012 | RETAIL
IndIA BUdGet 2012-13

Q1 2012 | RESEARCH
HIGHLIGHTS
GLOBAL
HIGHLIGHTS
UNION BUDGET 2012 -13
Record Rents for Top Retail Corridors; Global Slowdown Impacts Momentum Elsewhere
ANN T. NATUNEWICZ Manager | Retail Research | USA
Colliers 2012 Global Retail Streets survey found that of 129 locations tracked, 51 posted higher year over year average rental rates, 49 were flat, and 24 were down (5 lacked comparable data). Retailers entering new marketsboth developed and developingcontinue to hedge risk by targeting the same one or two premier locations, generating heated competition and outsized rental rate growth in a handful of space-constrained corridors. Companies with the most ambitious long-term expansion plans remain focused on emerging markets with rapidly growing middle-class populations, but recently institutional capital has pulled back somewhat to favor core markets and investments. While economic and political turmoil did affect rental rates in headline-generating markets (such as Cairo and Athens), high streets with strong fundamentals remained remarkably resilient, suggesting, at least for now, some separation between macroeconomic issues and underlying real estate fundamentals. Since we conducted our survey, however, weakening consumer sentiment among affluent shoppers has already begun to impact retailers revenues and could hinder landlords near-term ability to raise rents, suggesting flattening growth rates for the coming year. This spring proved to be a tricky time to conduct global benchmarking, as market sentiment has deteriorated markedly since April. During the past year, virtually every entity making a forecast including Colliers in our 2012 U.S. Retail Outlookincluded a caveat related to not-yet-quantifiable global fallout from Europes fiscal issues. As the past few months have illustrated, the time to face Eurozone issues has finally arrived, spawning a new wave of financial uncertainty. More than two years post-recession, though, results from our annual survey of High Street rents illustrate that the worlds priciest retail corridors continue to attract the most sought-after tenants at lofty rental rates. Eight of Colliers top ten Global Retail Streets in 2011 made the list again this year. The big story, however, lies with the explosive year over year rental growth achieved in a handful of markets. Six of our Top 10 grew at double-digit levels year over year in local currency units, five of them by more than 20%. At a regional level, streets in areas that entered 2007-08 better-positioned economicallyAustralia, Canada, parts of Eastern Europehad a higher percentage of this year's flat-to-higher rents than those slower to emerge from the recession. We will be watching these areas closely. Even as they represent some of the most attractive destinations for expansion-minded companies and yield-seeking investors, they too are vulnerable to softening consumer demand and, for those with reliable data, encroachment of e-commerce. This report contains two parts. The first summarizes the results of our annual Global Retail Streets survey, conducted in April 2012. The second incorporates content from Colliers brokerage and research teams worldwide who contributed market operational metrics, nuanced commentary on retail conditions, and forward-looking opinions on what the next year will hold for consumers, landlords, and investors.
P. 1 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
GLOBAL
A SNEAK PREVIEW
Record Rents for Top Retail Corridors; Global Slowdown Impacts Momentum Elsewhere
ANN T. NATUNEWICZ Manager | Retail Research | USA
Colliers 2012 Global Retail Streets survey found that of 129 locations tracked, 51 posted higher year over year average rental rates, 49 were flat, and 24 were down (5 lacked comparable data). Retailers entering new marketsboth developed and developingcontinue to hedge risk by targeting the same one or two premier locations, generating heated competition and outsized rental rate growth in a handful of space-constrained corridors. Companies with the most ambitious long-term expansion plans remain focused on emerging markets with rapidly growing middle-class populations, but recently institutional capital has pulled back somewhat to favor core markets and investments. While economic and political turmoil did affect rental rates in headline-generating markets (such as Cairo and Athens), high streets with strong fundamentals remained remarkably resilient, suggesting, at least for now, some separation between macroeconomic issues and underlying real estate fundamentals. Since we conducted our survey, however, weakening consumer sentiment among affluent shoppers has already begun to impact retailers revenues and could hinder landlords near-term ability to raise rents, suggesting flattening growth rates for the coming year. This spring proved to be a tricky time to conduct global benchmarking, as market sentiment has deteriorated markedly since April. During the past year, virtually every entity making a forecast including Colliers in our 2012 U.S. Retail Outlookincluded a caveat related to not-yet-quantifiable global fallout from Europes fiscal issues. As the past few months have illustrated, the time to face Eurozone issues has finally arrived, spawning a new wave of financial uncertainty. More than two years post-recession, though, results from our annual survey of High Street rents illustrate that the worlds priciest retail corridors continue to attract the most sought-after tenants at lofty rental rates. Eight of Colliers top ten Global Retail Streets in 2011 made the list again this year. The big story, however, lies with the explosive year over year rental growth achieved in a handful of markets. Six of our Top 10 grew at double-digit levels year over year in local currency units, five of them by more than 20%. At a regional level, streets in areas that entered 2007-08 better-positioned economicallyAustralia, Canada, parts of Eastern Europehad a higher percentage of this year's flat-to-higher rents than those slower to emerge from the recession. We will be watching these areas closely. Even as they represent some of the most attractive destinations for expansion-minded companies and yield-seeking investors, they too are vulnerable to softening consumer demand and, for those with reliable data, encroachment of e-commerce. This report contains two parts. The first summarizes the results of our annual Global Retail Streets survey, conducted in April 2012. The second incorporates content from Colliers brokerage and research teams worldwide who contributed market operational metrics, nuanced commentary on retail conditions, and forward-looking opinions on what the next year will hold for consumers, landlords, and investors. TOP 10 GLOBAL RETAIL STREETS*
(USD PER SQUARE FOOT PER YEAR)
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE (USD)** (%)
Budget Highlights | Real Estate

MARKET REACTION TO BUDGET
Company
BSE SENSEX Realty Index Anant Raj Inds D B Realty DLF Godrej Properties HDIL Hubtown Ltd. Indiabulls Real Estate Mahindra Lifespaces Orbit Corp. Parsvnath Developers Peninsula Land Phoenix Mills Sobha Developers Sunteck Realty Unitech
Change (%)
-1.19 -1.26 -6.04 -2.02 0.15 -2.82 -5.21 -4.13 -1.95 -0.72 -3.37 -4.04 -3.18 -2.65 3.04 -1.13 -1.68
TOP 10 GLOBAL RETAIL STREETS*

(USD PER SQUARE FOOT PER YEAR)
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE (USD)** (%)
STREET/PRECINCT
New York Fifth Avenue Hong Kong Queen's Road Central, Central (tie) Hong Kong Canton Road (tie) London Old Bond St.*** Paris Avenue des*** Champs-lyses Hong Kong Causeway Bay New York Madison Avenue Zurich Bahnhofstrasse Milan Via Monte Napoleone Sydney Pitt Street Mall
, , , , , ,
. . . . flat . . flat (.) (.)
STREET/PRECINCT
New York Fifth Avenue Hong Kong Queen's Road Central, Central (tie) Hong Kong Canton Road (tie) London Old Bond St.*** Paris Avenue des*** Champs-lyses Hong Kong Causeway Bay New York Madison Avenue
, , , , , ,
. . . . flat . . flat (.) (.)
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee started his budget speech 2012-13 in the backdrop of challenging macroeconomic scenario. The finance minister projects the economy to grow by 7.6% in the next fiscal up from 6.9% in 2011-12. He mentioned that due to adverse global economic sentiments there has been a slowdown in the Indian Economy but the fact is India still remains among the front runners in the economic growth in any cross country comparison. The budget aims at faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth across sectors emphasizing on five focus areas including revival of domestic consumption, rapid revival of high growth in private investment, removal of supply bottlenecks, addressing malnutrition in 200 high burden districts and expedite improvement in delivery system, governance and transparency. From a real estate perspective, the budget remained silent on most of the major issues including status of STPIs (Software Technology Parks of India), Real Estate Regulatory Bill, Land Bill etc. however, it mentioned that efforts are on to arrive at a political consensus on the issue of allowing 51% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail. THE KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE BUDGET WHICH MAY IMPACT REAL ESTATE SECTOR ARE AS FOLLOWS: - External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) for low cost affordable housing projects. Impact: Real estate companies developing large affordable housing projects with large fund requirements will benefit the most from the easing of external commercial borrowing (ECB) norms as interest rate charged is lower in case of external borrowings in comparison to rates charged by domestic institutions. - Increase in provision under Rural Housing Fund to INR 4,000 crore from the existing INR 3,000 crore.Impact: It will provide housing finance to targeted groups in rural areas at competitive rates. - Extension of the existing scheme of interest subvention of 1% on housing loans up to INR 15 lakh where the cost of the house does not exceed INR 25 lakh for another year. Impact: This will boost the affordable housing segment by providing cheaper loan to the end users.
Source: Colliers International * selected cities ** exchange rate as of March 31, 2012 *** Zone A rents
OFFICE PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW

INDIA
QUARTERLY UPDATE | JANUARY | 2013
REGIONAL RETAIL RESEARCH CONTACTS

AMERICAS > Ann T. Natunewicz Ann.Natunewicz@colliers.com EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA > Zuzanna Baranowska Zuzanna.Baranowska@colliers.com ASIA > Simon Lo Simon.Lo@colliers.com AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND > Nora Farren Nora.Farren@colliers.com
Residential Property Market Overview

INDIA
QUARTERLY UPDATE | NOVEMBER | 2012
Zurich Bahnhofstrasse Milan Via Monte Napoleone Sydney Pitt Street Mall
Source: www.bseindia.com | Mar 16, 2012
Source: Colliers International * selected cities ** exchange rate as of March 31, 2012 *** Zone A rents
ASIA PACIFIC OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW

3Q 2012
REGIONAL RETAIL RESEARCH CONTACTS

AMERICAS > Ann T. Natunewicz Ann.Natunewicz@colliers.com EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA > Zuzanna Baranowska Zuzanna.Baranowska@colliers.com ASIA > Simon Lo Simon.Lo@colliers.com AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND > Nora Farren Nora.Farren@colliers.com
www.colliers.com
www.colliers.com
www.colliers.com/india
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Residential Property Market Overview

INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential

reseArch & forecAst report IndIA resIdentIAL mArket

RESEARCh & foRECAST REpoRT SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

MACRo ECoNoMIC ovERvIEW

Jan-13 7.75% 6.75% 4.00% 6.95% 10.00%

8.50% 7.50% 5.50% 6.89% 11.00%

RETURN oN ALTERNATIvE INvESTMENTS

27,428 51,500 9.25% 16,189 1,574

30,714 58,443 8.50% 19,818 2,245

11.98% 13.48% -8.11% 22.42%

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0

reverse repo rate

cash reserve ratio

Wholesale price Index

Source: Goverment of India, Colliers International India Research

2.0 1.0 0.0

INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential MUMBAI

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE RANGE

Inr per sq.ft.

Breach candy, napeansea road, peddar road

CITY offICE BARoMETER

AvERAGE RENTAL vALUE

colaba, cuffe parade

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE TRENDS

Inr per sq.ft.

Breach candy, napeansea road, peddar road powai

khar prabhadevi Juhu

colaba, cuffe parade Bandra

santacruz malabar hill, Altamount road, carmichael road

KeY neW PrOJeCts proJect nAme

Note: * As mentioned by developer ** Base selling price as quoted by developer

INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential DELhI

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE RANGE

AvERAGE RENTAL vALUE

CITY offICE BARoMETER

friends colony, maharani Bagh

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE TRENDS

KeY OnGOinG PrOJeCts proJect nAme

Note: * As mentioned by developer ** Base selling price as quoted by developer

INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential GURGAoN

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE RANGE

15000 10000 5000

AvERAGE RENTAL vALUE

CITY offICE BARoMETER

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE TRENDS

Inr per sq.ft.

nh-8 Golf course road dLf phase I

sohna road & ext sushant Lok

INDIA | FEB 2013 | residential NoIDA

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE RANGE

Inr per sq.ft.

sector 61, 62., 63

AvERAGE RENTAL vALUE

CITY offICE BARoMETER

sector 28, 29, 30

sector 61, 62., 63

AvERAGE CApITAL vALUE TRENDS

Inr per sq.ft.

sector 61,62,63 sector 92 / 93

sector 50 sector 28,29,30 sector 44

KeY neW PrOJeCts proJect nAme

Note: * As mentioned by developer ** Base selling price as quoted by developer