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## WORKSHOP FIVE INTRODUCTION

In this workshop, we will perform tests of hypothesis regarding a statement about a population parameter. Many decisions require selecting an alternative from a number of possible alternatives. A decision is made based upon incomplete information, so we do not absolutely know if it is the correct or incorrect decision. Should you bring an umbrella with you? If it is not currently raining, this decision must be made with incomplete information. The knowledge gained in this workshop will help you deal rationally with an uncertain world. A hypothesis is a statement about a population parameter or parameters. Examples might be target market age, price that consumers would be willing to pay for a product, or salary of college graduates. Using the six-step hypothesis testing procedure contained in Chapter 9, we decide whether to reject this hypothesis or not. We reject the null hypothesis if the test statistic has a low probability of occurring by chance. Accepting the null hypothesis does not mean that we believe it to be true; it means that we do not have sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Using hypothesis testing, we will compare a sample mean or proportion to a hypothesized value. We will also compare two or more sample means to determine whether the sampled populations have the same mean. In Chapter 12 will be introduced to simple regression analysis, which is used to create an equation that allows estimating the value of one variable based on the value of another. Make sure you understand what constitutes a dependent variable (Y) and an independent variable (X). An aid to visualizing these concepts is the scatter diagram. The plot on this page indicates that there appears to be a direct relationship between sales calls (the independent variable) and profit (the dependent variable). Regression models are a source of information about the world, but they do not make decisions for people. In order to use them wisely, it is important to understand how they work. Figure 1

## WORKSHOP FIVE DEVOTIONAL

Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter. Isaiah 5:20 (NIV) Hypothesis testing puts at your command a powerful scientific tool for decision-making. With it come many ethical issues. It is essential we handle this newfound skill with utmost responsibility. It is sin to do otherwise: there are no small or big sins before our Lord and Savior. What are some high profile episodes in the corporate or public arenas where those trusted with authority manipulated information or data in unethical ways?

## WORKSHOP FIVE OUTCOMES

Upon completion of this workshop you should be able to: 1. Describe what hypothesis testing is and how it can be applied in the workplace. 2. Conduct hypothesis tests of a real world: one and two populations, large and small samples, using the step procedure for hypothesis testing. 3. Choose the correct use of a one- versus two-tailed test. 4. Define and apply the concept of p-value in hypothesis testing. 5. Conduct and interpret the results from a hypothesis test using the t distribution to determine a difference among means from two populations. 6. Conduct and interpret the results from a hypothesis test using ANOVA to determine if two sample variances came from the same or equal populations. 7. Identify the independent and dependent variables and describe why establishing a valid cause-and-effect relationship is important for meaningful analysis of paired data sets. 8. Given a real-world situation of a paired data set, conduct a correlation and regression analysis to determine the regression equation. 9. Use the regression equation to predict an estimate of the dependent variable. 10. Determine the standard error of the estimate and construct confidence intervals about estimates. 11. Clearly understand the usefulness of statistical tools and principles in the business decision-making process and in everyday life.

## WORKSHOP FIVE RESOURCES

Textbook: Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel File: Basic Steps of Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis.docx File: Airfare.xls File: RaceHelmets.xls

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## WORKSHOP FIVE OUTLINE

ASSIGNMENT TITLE 5.1 Reading 5.2 Concepts and Questions 5.3 Practice Problem Solution Creation 5.4 Exercises 5.5 Applied Statistics Paper Rough Draft DUE DATES Due prior to the workshop. Due prior to the workshop. Due prior to the workshop. Due prior to the workshop. Due prior to the workshop. TOTALS ESTIMATED TIME TO COMPLETE 8 hours 1:30 hours 1 hours 2 hours 1:30 hours 14 hours* POINTS 0 20 5 60 20 105

*These timings are based on estimations of average times to complete each assignment. Actual assignment completion times will vary.

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## WORKSHOP FIVE ASSIGNMENTS

RESOURCES Textbook: Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel File: Basic Steps of Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis.docx

INSTRUCTIONS 1. Read the following: a. Chapters 9, 10, and 12 in Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel. b. Basic Steps of Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis located in the Workshop Five folder under Course Material. ASSESSMENT CRITERIA ASSESSED ITEM There are no points associated with this activity. TOTAL POINTS POINTS 0 0

## 5.2 DISCUSSION: CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS

BACKGROUND INFORMATION The Concepts and Questions discussion forum is repeated in each workshop to provide you with a venue for questions, insights, and examples to enhance everyones mastery of the subject. Use this forum to: Ask questions regarding concepts you find difficult or confusing. For example, if you are having difficulty grasping probability, ask a question here. You may find that a classmate has just the information or insight to make things clear. Make observations regarding how the subject matter of this workshop is exemplified in your world. Your example may be the key to helping a classmate grasp a concept. Post a comment or question that deepens the discussion by raising the application or implications of a concept presented in the textbook. Well if thats true, then shouldnt we? INSTRUCTIONS 1. Make your postings in the Concepts and Questions discussion forum in Blackboard. On the Course Menu, select Course Material. Then select Workshop Five, and make your posting in the Concepts and Questions discussion forum. 5/17/12

2. Your initial post is due by the day prior to the workshop. 3. For your response, read and respond by the beginning of the workshop to at least one of your classmates postings, as well as all follow-up faculty questions directed to you. ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

CRITERIA

9 - 10 POINTS Your postings are well developed and answers provide clear evidence of critical thinking.

7 - 8 POINTS Your postings show some development and some critical thinking is evident in your answers. Your questions and observations add to the discussion by expanding the ideas of others. 0 POINTS Your initial posting to the question or topic assigned in the workshop activity is made on the day of the workshop or later. 3 - 4 POINTS You respond to at least one other classmate and some of the instructor follow-up questions directed to you. You are collaborative in some situations and show some initiative in workshop discussions.

5 - 6 POINTS Your postings show nominal development and only the beginnings of critical thinking. Your contributions (questions or observations) do not clearly add to the discussion.

0 - 4 POINTS Your postings show no development and are mostly a reiteration of what the textbook or others have said. Your questions and observations detract from the discussion.

Quality

Your questions or observations add greater depth to the discussion by introducing new ideas. 4 POINTS Your initial posting to the question or topic assigned in the workshop activity is made by the day prior to the workshop. 5 - 6 POINTS You respond to at least one other classmate as well as all follow-up instructor questions directed to you. You are clearly collaborative by taking the initiative to respond to classmates questions, providing clarification and insight on issues in the discussion.

CRITERIA

Timeliness

CRITERIA

1 - 2 POINTS You respond to at least one classmate but do not respond to instructor follow-up questions directed to you. You show little initiative in discussions and your presence is not collaborative.

Interaction

TOTAL POINTS

20

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## 5.3 DISCUSSION: PRACTICE PROBLEM SOLUTION CREATION

RESOURCES Textbook: Essentials of modern business statistics with Microsoft Excel

## 5.4 ASSIGNMENT: EXERCISES

RESOURCES Textbook: Essentials of modern business statistics with Microsoft Excel File: Airfare.xls File: RaceHelmets.xls

BACKGROUND INFORMATION There are graded individual exercises due in every workshop. Assessment is based on how closely responses conform to the grading rubric, especially in clear and logical steps leading to reasonable answers. You must identify responses to questions rather than simply submitting an Excel worksheet, but both are required. You should submit all individual exercises for a workshop in one Excel workbook with a separate worksheet for each exercise. The individual exercises require each student to submit his or her assignment to the instructor, but students 5/17/12

may work together to solve the exercises. If you have questions or insights, use the Concepts and Questions discussion forum to share these with the class. INSTRUCTIONS 1. In the Essentials of Modern Business Statistics textbook, do the following: a. Chapter 9: #7, 15 b. Chapter 10: #15, 24 c. Chapter 12: #4, 17, 44 2. To assist you in your work, data sets are available for some problems. The table below shows which problems have associated data sets. CHAPTER 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 PROBLEM # 7 15 15 24 4 17 44 DATA SETS AVAILABLE No data set required No data set required Not available; student types in the data AirFare.xls data set available in Workshop Five folder Not available; student types in the data No data set required RaceHelmets.xls data set available in Workshop Five folder

3. Submit your exercises as one Microsoft Excel file (one worksheet per exercise) using the Exercises assignment tool prior to the workshop. Title your submission WS5 Exercises. ASSESSMENT CRITERIA Quality of work is excellent. Clearly provides rationale for accurate answers and 57-60 includes complete step-by-step statements, incorporating relevant and points appropriate graphs, and mathematical equations leading logically to final answer or conclusion. Quality of work is good. Provides rationale for answers and includes step-by-step 50-56 statements incorporating relevant and appropriate graphs, and mathematical points equations leading logically to final answer or conclusion. Quality of work is satisfactory. Provides some rationale for answers but is 43-49 incomplete in accuracy, logicality, graphs, and equations supporting final answer points or conclusion. Quality of work is borderline acceptable. It lacks in rationale, accuracy, logicality, 39-42 and the clear understanding of materials, including the need for graphs and points necessary mathematical equations. 0-38 Quality of work is unacceptable. points 5/17/12