TERM PAPER ON

CHINA: THE RISING SUPER POWER

COURSE NO: 302 COURSE TITLE: COMPARATIVE FOREIGN POLICIES

SUBMITTED TO: M. SHAHIDUZZAMAN PROFESSOR; DEPT. OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, UNIVERSITY OF DHAKA.

SUBMITTED BY: TOHURA MORIOM MISTI - SN 19 3RD YEAR, 5TH SEMESTER, DEPT. OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, UNIVERSITY OF DHAKA.

DATE OF SUBMISSION: 10TH APRIL, 2012.

CONTENTS

Table of Contents: Topics: 1. Introduction 2. The Rise of China 3. China and the present World 4. Changes in Chinas policy 5. Policies behind the rise of China 5.1 economic policies 5.2 end of cultural revolution 5.3 agricultural policies 5.4 security policies 5.5 other policies 6. Impacts of the rising 6.1 positive impacts 6.2 negative impacts 7. Chinas position in different countries 8. Whether its peaceful rise or not 9. Concluding Remarks Page No: 1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6

6-8

8-9 9-10 10-11

1. Introduction:
The rise of China as a world power is one of the most important issue of todays world. Almost all around the world everyone become surprised on the rise of China. Chinas development is directly transforming the lives of one-fifth of the worlds population and is otherwise influencing billions more. Chinas rapid economic growth, expanding regional and global influence, continued military modernization, and lagging political reform are also shifting the geopolitical environment and contributing to uncertainty about Chinas future course. Most scholars have argued that the unipolar moment of United States is now over, mostly because of Chinas rise. On the other hand, some argues that Chinas rising is Peaceful Rising. In this term paper here I will try to elucidate the policies that assist China towards the road to be the super power like United States and I will also try to clarify whether the rise of china is a peaceful rising or a threat to the US and other countries.

2. The Rise of China:

Many scholars argue that the rise of China is granted by nature. The Chinese are very proud of their early achievements in the human history of civilization. In the last 2000 years China has enjoyed superpower status several times, such as during the Han Dynasty, the Tang Dynasty, and the early Qing Dynasty. Even as recently as the 1820, just 20 years before the Opium War, Chinas GDP accounted for 30% of the world GDP.1 Not long after the collapse of Soviet Union, the rise of China attracted international attention.2 However, the rise of China is a historical process that started in the late 1970s when China adopted the reform and open-door policy. Chinas rise refers to the modernization of the Chinese military and the reviving of Chinese culture. The Chinese were able to make worlds first merit based army. Chinese have some military secrets that they do not share with everyone because they do not want them to be common. But the China is the first country where army is not at the top of the society. China has been also successful in the last three decades under economic reform and a policy of openness. The economic miracle has been due to Deng Ziaopings gradualism and pragmatism in economic reforms and social changes, the smooth transformation to a mixed economy and the shift of development strategy form closed-door to openness. Centre of Chinas rise has been its economic development. They also realized that they must know about their resources and collect
1 2

Zha, Daojjiong, Comment: Can China Rise? in Review of International Studies, no. 31,(2005) Exercise of Power, Financial Times, August 19, 2005.

taxes. Deng Xiaoping pointed out in March 1979, Socialist modernization construction is currently the biggest politics, because it represents the foremost and fundamental interest of our people.3 Since then, China has undergone dramatic economic, political, social and cultural transformations. The process of Chinas rise is not yet complete and will continue into the foreseeable future.

3. China and the Present World:

For the Chinese everything should remain in harmony. They are against war because war is disharmony according to them. China is perhaps considered to be a major determinant of emerging world politics. After cold war only United Kingdom and United States were controlling the world politics in unipolar system. But the whole world is having quake on the rise of China. China's rapid development has attracted worldwide attention in recent years. The implications of various aspects of China's rise, from its expanding influence and military muscle to its growing demand for energy supplies, are being heatedly debated in the international community as well as within China. Correctly understanding China's achievements and its path toward greater development is thus crucial. It has significantly improved the well-being of its people, although its development has often been narrow and uneven. The last 27 years of reform and growth have also shown the world the magnitude of China's labor force, creativity, and purchasing power; its commitment to development; and its degree of national cohesion. Once all of its potential is mobilized, its contribution to the world as an engine of growth will be unprecedented.4 The days of China as the low-cost, low-tech manufacturer of the rest of the worlds high-tech innovations may soon be coming to a close. China now leads in the production of not just low-end manufactured consumer goods, but also some high-tech devices, many of which were developed in the United States. A further effect of the rapid development of Chinas economy is its growing appetite for raw materials and energy and other accouterments of modern life. In the market for petroleum, for example, Chinas demand already has reached 6.7 million barrels per day, and in 2020 is expected to climb to 12.0 million barrels per day or about 11 percent of world consumption.5 Similar increases are occurring in Chinese demand for steel, gold, natural gas, and other commodities. This is pushing up world prices for these items. From
3 4

Zhang Xiaoming, The Rise of China in Chinese Eyes in Journal of Contemporary China, 2001. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61015/zheng-bijian/chinas-peaceful-rise-to-great-power-status

Global Insight, Inc. Global Petroleum Outlook, Winter 2004-05.

high speed trains to next-generation mobile phones to advanced clean-technology products, Chinese products now boast top-flight technologies that they can sell competitively abroad and that dominate their domestic market. Several innovation assets directly and indirectly help drive Chinas shift from sweatshop to cutting-edge innovator. Moreover China has captured the world market in such a way that US could not do it yet.

4. Changes in Chinas Policy:

China has brought huge changes in its policy in recent 20 years. Nationalism has been one of the key focuses in the study of Chinas foreign policy in recent years. Nationalism is an idea which was developed by Sun Tzu, the famous Chinese leader. Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro echoed this view by charging that driven by nationalist sentiment, a yearning to redeem the humiliations of the past, and the simple urge for international power, China is seeking to replace the United States as the dominant power in Asia.6 Even Edward Friedman, a long-time Chinawatcher, stated that the new, post-Mao nationalism in China not only challenges Taiwans autonomy, it also could endanger peace in the PacificAsia region.7 Nationalism is relatively new for China in its relations with the rest of the world. Before the twentieth century, the predominate Chinese approach to foreign relations was culturalism. James Harrison also pointed out that the traditional Chinese self-image has generally been defined as culturalism, based on the historical heritage and acceptance of shared values, not as nationalism, based on the modern concept of the nation-state.8 But later the nationalism was replaced by patriotism. Again Chinese leaders could not pretend that pursuing nationalistic agenda was equal to practicing internationalism after the PRC (Peoples Republic of China) was founded in 1949. They had to integrate their nationalistic agenda with their commitment to socialist internationalism. In the 1950s, Chinese leaders agreed to recognize the Soviet Union as the leader of the socialist bloc. But later they tried to keep ally USA for the permanent membership of UN Security Council in the sudden shift of Chinas foreign policy in the early 1970s. During the past two decades, Chinese nationalism has taken on the face of positive nationalism. Chinas indigenous innovation
6 7 8

Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The coming conflict with America, Foreign Affairs, (March/April 1997), p. 19. Edward Friedman, Chinese nationalism, Taiwan autonomy and the prospects of a larger war, Journal of Contemporary China 6(14), (March 1997), p. 5. James Harrison, Modern Chinese Nationalism (Hunter College of the City of New York: Research Institute on Modern Asia, 1969), p. 2. Also see John King Fairbank, ed., The Chinese World Order: Traditional Chinas Foreign Relations (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1968).

policies are part of a deep-seated effort by the Chinese leadership to advance the country from its status as a prolific, but low-end, producer of manufactures to a position of technological leadership.9All of these changes in Chinas policy brought China at todays position. But there are some remarkable changes in the policy of China that have played a significant role for the surprising rise of China.

5. Policies behind the Rise of China:

When China emerged it seems that China is having a revolution. But in the next two decades it had a huge change and now it is a status quo power. In 1978, after years of state control of all productive assets, the government of China embarked on a major program of economic reform.10 Chinas joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) is an example of the exercise of an external pressure to invoke and lock in reform. China is approaching the issue of technological leadership from a position of weakness, not strength. Chinese policy on copyright, piracy, trade, use of capitalism; China has captured the whole world with its products. It has a wide range of products that varies from very high quality to low quality products, from expensive to costly products. It faces a broad range of concerns about its economic future and is concerned about the economic effects of being relegated to a position of never-ending, cheap, low-end manufacture.11 The economic rise of China and the growing network of trade and investment relations in Northeast Asia are causing major changes in human, economic, political, and military interaction among countries in the region.12 There are many policies behind the rise of China. These can be classified into four sections which are describing below: 5.1 Economic Policies: China has become the world's fastest-growing major economy and the world's largest exporter and second-largest importer of goods. It is the world's second-largest economy, after the United
9

McGregor, James Chinas Drive for Indigenous Innovation: A Web of Industrial Policies, July 2010, http://www.apcoworldwide.com/content/PDFs/Chinas_Drive_for_Indigenous_Innovation .pdf; and United States International Trade Commission, China: Intellectual Property Infringement, Indigenous Innovation Policies, and Frameworks for Measuring the Effects on the U.S. Economy, Publication 4199, November 2010, http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4199.pdf
10 11

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues8/index.htm http://www.apcoworldwide.com/content/PDFs/Chinas_Drive_for_Indigenous_Innovation .pdf 12 www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32882.pdf

States, by both nominal GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP).13 According to the IMF, on per capita terms, however, China ranked only 90th by nominal GDP and 91st by GDP (PPP) in 2011.14The economic rise of China has generated a reorientation of international trade patterns in Northeast Asia. For Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, China has surpassed the United States as their number one trading partner.15 Since the economic liberalization begin in the late 1970s, the central government has shifted its development strategies toward more labor intensive sectors, initially agriculture, and then increasingly exportoriented rural industries. Chinas rapid growth since the reform is mainly due to the rebalancing of Chinas developments strategy away from a central focus on heavyindustry and in the direction of more laborintensive sectors. When the Peoples Republic of China was just established, China lacked capital and faced international isolation. Influenced by the experience and ideology of the Soviet Union, China placed the development of heavy industry as the top priority if it was to catch up with the developed nations as soon as possible. To achieve this goal, the government suppressed the procurement price for grains, restricted rural migration, and set up some barriers between rural and urban residents. Since this strategy was capital intensive, it violated Chinas comparative advantage, which was defined by limited capital and abundant labor, and led to nearly three decades of stagnation in per capita income. 5.2 End of Cultural Revolution: After the Cultural Revolution (19661976) China was on the verge of collapse under the planned economy system. After the Cultural Revolution irreversibly changed the nation and caused three crises of ideological belief, faith in the CPC, and confidence in the future.16 After the end of Cultural Revolution, most of the top leaders and the masses realized that the planned system was not a viable option anymore, even if there was still uncertainty and debate as how next to proceed. Under these circumstances, top leaders were more willing to listen to different opinions and allow open policy debate. In other words, the crisis provided wouldbe reformers with a window of opportunity to push new agendas.17 China is taking a less than active role with the constructs of the existing system are matched in some quarters by a growing concern that it is

13 14

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/there_no_stopping_china_0H8GJaMgzHCYenL038Yh2N http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc/uckertmb.pdf 15 www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32882.pdf 16 http://www.nytimes.com/ref/college/coll-china-politics-007.html 17 www.arts.cornell.edu/.../China%27sGrowthStrategies.pdf

steadily working to develop a different paradigm that rejects the current system - which China sees as being based on traditional Western values - in favor of one based on the primacy of state sovereignty, non-interference, and state-driven development. The gap between rich and poor is more pronounced now than it has ever been in Chinas history. China opened up its markets, purchased more modern machinery, encouraged foreign investment, and improved technologies.18 5.3 Agricultural Policies: In responding to rising ruralurban disparity and stagnating agricultural growth, China has launched a new rural movement campaign in the past several years. Agricultural taxation has been abolished; the government has provided direct subsidies for grain production. However, significant challenges still remain. Facing rising food and fuel prices, the government has placed a ceiling on the grain procurement price, which may dampen famers incentives to increase grain production in the long run. With a large segment of the population underemployed in agriculture, the Chinese example may be particularly instructive. By encouraging the growth of rural enterprises and not focusing exclusively on the urban industrial sector, China has successfully moved millions of workers off farms and into factories without creating an urban crisis.19 5.4 Security policies: China is a recognized nuclear weapons state and has the world's largest standing army, with the second-largest defense budget. In 2003, China became the third nation in the world to independently launch a successful manned space mission after the Soviet Union and the United States. China has been characterized as a potential superpower by a number of academics, military analysts, and public policy and economics analysts. As a recognized nuclear weapons state, China is considered both a major regional military power and an emerging military superpower. The PRC has made significant progress in modernizing its military since the early 2000s. China has also acquired and improved upon the Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which is considered to be among the most effective aircraft-intercepting systems in the world. In recent years, much attention has been focused on enhancing the blue-water capabilities of the People's Liberation Army Navy.20

18 19

http://www.diplomatshandbook.org/pdf/Handbook_China.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues8/index.htm 20 http://www.sinodefence.com/army/surfacetoairmissile/hongqi9.asp.

6. Impacts of the Rising:

The rise of China will play an increasingly more important role in global affairs, and Chinas realization of the four modernizations will have a major impact on the world. The rise of China will inevitably stimulate world economic growth by more inventions, investment, and importation. It is natural that there will be different views about the rise of China. We can explain the rise of China in two parts: 6.1 Positive impacts

i) The AsiaPacific is dominated by the USJapan alliance, which encourages unilateral

military action by that alliance under the name of international responsibility. The rise of China will help restore a balance of power in the AsiaPacific region and reduce the dangers embedded in the domination of just one power. ii) China has no effective constraint on US military behavior in a short term, but in the long term Chinas rise will play a positive role in creating a balanced international system.
iii) After the Cold War, East Asia, in contrast with Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin

America, had no regional wars. This region could enjoy a more peaceful environment primarily because China grew stronger and stronger. The rise of China made the United States and its allies more cautious about launching military attacks against others in this region. iv) The rise of China will expand the impact of Chinese culture, which will help in the building of new international norms. These norms can counter the power politics which prevailed globally during the period of colonialism. v) The rise of China will bring about a booming world economy. The Chinese Government plans to make China a developed country by 2050. If the Chinese standard of living catches up with that of the European Union (EU), Chinas economic size will be 3.2 times that of the EUs GDP because China has a population 3.2 times larger. 21 Therefore, it is easy to calculate how big the Chinese market will be when China implements its economic plan by mid-century. vi) The rise of China will not only create a huge market but will also contribute substantially to scientific progress. Economic globalization makes it impossible for any country to keep its scientific and technological achievements from benefiting others. Every rich country
21

Yan Xuetong, Journal of Contemporary China, 2001.

inevitably invests largely abroad and imports many products from others. During the process of economic globalization, the rise of China will inevitably stimulate world economic growth by more inventions, investment, and importation. 6.2 Negative Impacts i) China remains authoritarian or becomes democratic is likely to try to dominate Asia the way the US dominates the Western hemisphere. ii) China will seek to maximize the power gap between itself and its neighbors, especially Japan and Russia. China will want to make sure that it is so powerful that no state in Asia has the ability to threaten it. It is unlikely that China will pursue military superiority so that it can go on a rampage and conquer other Asian countries, although that is always possible. iii) It is clear from the historical record how American policy-makers will react if China attempts to dominate Asia. The US does not tolerate peer competitors. As it demonstrated in the 20th century, it is determined to remain the world's only regional hegemony. Therefore, the US can be expected to go to great lengths to contain China and ultimately weaken it to the point where it is no longer capable of ruling the roost in Asia. In essence, the US is likely to behave towards China much the way it behaved towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War. iv) Taiwan's strategic importance for controlling the sea lanes in East Asia, it is hard to imagine the US, as well as Japan, allowing China to control that large island. In fact, Taiwan is likely to be an important player in the anti-China balancing coalition, which is sure to infuriate China and fuel the security competition between Beijing and Washington.22 v) If China continues its impressive economic growth over the next few decades, the US and China are likely to engage in an intense security competition with considerable potential for war. Most of China's neighbors, to include India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Russia and Vietnam, will join with the US to contain China's power. So there is both some positive and negative side of the rising of China. So now we have to analysis that whether the policies of china are a threat or it is a peaceful rising.

22

John Measheimer, The Australian November 18, 2005.

7. Chinas Image in the World:

Chinas policy is anything to win, including lowering others games. Chinas declaratory policy is now expanding the economy and keeping peace with the countries. They are known as a very peace loving nation who is against any kind of war or violence. So United States still does not recognize China as a threat. Scandinavia, Canada, Australia competing based on innovation policy and raising their game towards China. Most of the European countries are playing to win, but usually playing by the rules with China. Brazil, India, Russia, East Asia Often subvert rules when to their advantage.23 The environment that China is creating is unlikely to attract top research talent from around the world, for example, since such innovators generally value their intellectual freedom and independence. The United States and China share an interest in seeing China emerge as a prosperous technological innovator. The economic rise of China has generated a reorientation of international trade patterns in Northeast Asia. Now question is that whether the policies of China are just for economic development or they have inner intention to dominate the world order becoming a super power.

8. Whether Rise of China Peaceful or Not

Chinas rise has meant different things to different people. Three different logics have been constructed to substantiate the "China threat" thesis. Firstly, ideological and cultural factors make China a threat for the United States and other capitalist countries though ideological threat is almost settled down at present world order. Secondly, geopolitical and geo-economic factors can be another reason. For many realists, even China has shed off its ideological straitjacket, as a great power in size (territory, population, and economy); China has to pursue its own interest and respect. Thirdly, collapse of China. Opposed to the previous two perspectives, some people are concerned that if China suffers a Soviet-style sudden-death syndrome and spins out of control, it can create an even worse scenario. The sheer size of the population makes refuge problem, the failed state and the followed crises (warlordism, civil war, crime, proliferation of nuclear weapons, etc) impossible for the world to deal with. Due to these three different considerations the rise of China can be a
23

Stephen J. Enzell and Robert D. Atkinson, The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (and the Self-Destructive) of Innovation Policy (Washington: The Information Techonology and Innovation Foundation, 2010), available at http://www.itif.org/files/2010-good-bad-ugly.pdf.

threat.24 Chinas indigenous innovation policies represent a serious misstep along this path. The policies do not threaten U.S. technological leadership in the long run, but they do threaten to impose substantial costs on U.S. businesses. Chinas economic growth and diplomatic emphasis on development have produced greater levels of aid, trade, and investment in certain parts of the developing world. The benefits of these activities, however, are not always distributed evenly. The potential for economic gain, doing business with China has sometimes resulted in grievances such as low wages, local corruption, poor safety standards, and an influx of cheap Chinese goods that displace local products. In November 2008, following a series of deadly accidents and incidents at Chinese-owned factories, opposition leader Michael Sata hit on emotive nationalist themes in his campaign, proclaiming that, Weve removed one foreign power and we dont want another foreign power here, especially one that is not a democracy.25It seems China is still against democracy though they have already accepted market economy. But again many argue that China is now only concerned about their economic development. Chinas economy already has broken loose from most of its moribund Communist strictures and has become well integrated into the global economic system. Chinas economic rise has provided the resources for it to build a modernizing and more powerful Chinese military. While the end of the Cold War and rapprochement with Russia has reduced greatly the probability of a big-power conflict in Asia, the rise of China as a regional nuclear power, in the minds of some, merely shifts the threat to China. The PRC also looks toward the Pacific Ocean. China is one of the few nations actively arming itself for a possible military confrontation with the United States.26The rise of China is having decided effects on the policies of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Bilateral relations between these states and China tend to divide into strata with economic relations charging ahead while security and political relations lag behind. The economic and financial activity, however, is affecting security interests. China appears to be maneuvering to position itself at the center of any East Asian economic and political arrangement. But Chinas open-door policy has spurred foreign direct investment in the country, creating still more jobs and linking the Chinese economy with international markets. Though China is rising peacefully without creating any violence in the world orders still there are some possible threats for the developing countries

24 25

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/college/coll-china-politics-007.html. Yaroslav Trofimov, In Africa, Chinas expansion begins to stir resentment, The Wall. Street Journal, February 2, 2007. 26 Cody, Edward. China Builds a Smaller, Stronger Military, The Washington Post, April 12, 2005. P. A1.

which are involved in business with China at the same time for United States. So it still remain a suspense that the rise of China is actually peaceful rise or not.

9. Concluding remarks:
Many people think the rise of China as a threat to US. But there is no absolute answer of the question that if the rise of China is a peaceful rise or a threat for US. Their policies are providing well advantage for the rising of China but at the same time there remain some threats for the other countries. On the other hand China offer an excellent jumping-off point for future research on the potential roles for productivity measures in other developing countries. Although China occupies a unique niche in the worlds political economyits vast populace and large physical size alone mark it as a powerful global presenceit is still possible to look at the Chinese experience and draw some general lessons for other developing countries. So analyzing most of the possible threats and advantage of the rise of China we can come to a conclusion that whether the rise of China is a threat or peaceful rise is remaining as a debate. But its policy of positive nationalism is in the sense that it aims to realize the key unsettled national missions: economic development, nation-state building, political unity and independence, and the greatness of China. It is positive because it has adopted an internationally oriented strategy, emphasizing international cooperation and integration into the global economy. It is positive because it no longer calls for world revolution and the overthrow of the status quo. It is positive because the aspiration of Chinese nationalism is so designed that the achievement of the Chinese national agenda would also be able to contribute to the general welfare of the region and of the world at large.