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Overall : inefficient economy but with a high inherent potential for win-win improvements
Air pollution (indoor/urban air) 50% Water pollution (sanitation/hygeine) 30% Land degradation (reduce agri productivity) 20%
Estimates do not include degradation of coastal/marine environment
Pakistan Guatemala Colombia Russia Honduras Oman Poland Portugal China Tajikistan
Basis of Vulnerability ?
Glacial Melting Zone
.In a neighborhood of Unavoidable vulnerability with main issue being WATER...too much and too little both cause serious consequences
Natural Disasters
Maximum natural disasters (90% in the Table) are climate related.
The damage costs of these natural disasters is going up with the top three disasters occurring in the past three years The frequency of these natural disasters is going up with 60% occurring in the past 10 years.
Disaster 1 Flood 2 Earthquake 3 Storm 4 Flood 5 Flood 6 Flood 7 Flood 8 2007 327118 1976 505000 1973 661500 1992 1000000 2007 1620000 2005 5200000 2010 9500000 Date Damage (000 US$)
Drought
9 Flood 10
1999
2001
247000
246000
Flood
2008
103000
Actual (2010)
9.7++
As a percent of GDP
2010-2050
10.71
Adaptation to climate change is going to be a high value figure in the future (U$ 6-14 bn/yr)
= = = = = = =
5 million 150 million 1 billion 2.5 billion 6.1 billion 7 billion 9 billion
GHG Emissions at 42 GtCO2e/ annum are 5 times what Earth can absorb (UNEP) Energy is main culprit
UNEP ETB
Why?
Growing recognition of Pakistan as a strong and resilient nation and a survival economy which in the past decade has absorbed and sustained :
Two mega-floods (2010-11) Two cyclones in the South Massive Earthquake Influx of IDP s and continuing stream of Afghan refugees
Moreover, a country which has braved the security spillover and associated economic drain of the War in Afghanistan.
Backed by Indigenous philanthropy one of the main pillars of social support and rising every year
Rs 70 100 billion/year (1998)
Pakistan ..innovating
On Innovation Efficiency Pakistan s economy ranks an impressive 4th, ahead of all developed and developing countries except China INSEAD Innovation Index 2011 Pakistani businesses and entrepreneurs have shown extreme resilience and ingenuity in a very adverse environment - working with minimum resources to get impressive results. Depicts Pakistans strong can do attitude in the face of a wanting enabling environment
Tipping Point
Point demanding change . make sustainable choices.
Change is inevitable..Growth is optional
(John Maxwell)
Entrust environmental responsibility within party structure Include a focus on Environment in its election manifesto Clearly outline its green development/environmental policy
Provide opportunities for poverty eradication, encouraging innovation and creation of green jobs
5 year plans MTDF (Medium Term Dev Framework 2005-10) ADP (Annual Development Plans) PRSP (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper)-2001-3-7
BUT Still. The obvious still needs to be : Clearly stated Politically owned Backed by a solution driven approach
Defining Green.
Forestry Agriculture Climate Change Biodiversity National Parks
Air
Valuing Nature
Water
Wetlands
Population
100 80 60 40 20
600 300
Years
Population Water Ava
Climate change adding another Uncertain dimension - shrinking glaciers / Freshwater reserves
Rate of Glacial Receeding in Himalaya m/year
25 23
20
18
15
Summers
1970-1990 1990-2000 34 MAF/yr 47 MAF/yr (40% increase)
Winter
1.86 MAF/yr 3.28 MAF/yr (76% increase)
10
7.3
Period
Rising to the challenge . Recognize as critically important ecosystems delivering multiple benefits :
Watersheds for reservoirs Regulation of water quality and quantity Natural habitat for various birds and fish Storehouses and sustainers of biodiversity Tourism and recreation Blue Carbon Storage Biodiversity protection
Where we are ? Rising to the challenge Deteriorating air quality in all Clean and affordable fuels CNG big cities /LPG / Cleaner gasoline Air pollution is estimated to be Clean-up Transport / Vehicles Retirement of polluting vehicles 20 times higher than WHO Establish and implement vehicle standards manufacturing standards Indoor air pollution (biomass Improve traffic fuels) is also a big issue management/pedestrian/cycle paths Vehicle check up system for air High and rising direct & indirect pollution Yearly certificates economic costs
Transport, industry, energy and deforestation the main sources of Urban forestry sinks air pollution Air monitoring system in all
Choking our population with major cities slow poisoning ? Strict enforcement of industrial standards with incentives (SMART)
Establish and comply with Green building codes ESSCO s concept with carbon crediting to be employed:
Energy efficiency construction Efficient lighting Insulation enhancement Solar water heating Natural lighting maximizing
Low area coverage of forests (Less than 5%) Low survival rates - afforestation campaigns Poor valuation of forest eco services Precious Mangrove forests under threat from fuelwood use pressure, although Largest found in any arid climate Coastal protectors
Rising to the challenge Aim to double the countrys dismal forest cover in 5 years True Forest valuation to be done
Timber, watersheds, biodiversity, carbon sinks, flood protection
Public-private mechanisms
REDD+ through proper regulations Community based stewardship
Need to document and preserve our natural heritage for future generations Community engagement/empowerment for management of natural treasures
True custodians and stakeholders
Environmental Awareness
Environmental education to start at primary level Inform and motivate public :
Green Youth volunteers program / Clean up classes in school Responsible custodians of nature Utilize religious platforms - message of sustainable consumption and conservation Encourage Media to promote sustainable values
Finally..Environmental Governance
Environment to be placed at core of the PTI development agenda Strong EIA enforcement / Government to lead Commit to include environmental rights as basic human rights under constitution Green Benches institutionally support with knowledge based network Technical cadres to be set up at Ministry level
Almost a million Green Jobs have been created in an, otherwise weak, economy Almost equal to financial services More than telecom sector
1. Renewable promotion 2. Energy efficiency improvements 3. Pollution control and waste recycle / reuse 4. Organic agriculture, sustainable forestry 5. Environmental education
Public-private partnerships
Capitalize on win-win investment opportunities
Sar-sabz Pakistan